Opinion Poll by Norstat, 31 May–1 June May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 42.8% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.5% 36.0–42.0% 35.1–43.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 38.5% 33.2–37.0% 32.6–37.6% 32.2–38.0% 31.3–39.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.8% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 6.6% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Green Party 3.8% 3.3% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 318 304–335 298–340 292–345 278–350
Labour Party 232 248 231–261 226–266 221–272 217–286
Liberal Democrats 8 7 3–14 3–17 2–18 1–22
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
267 0% 100%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.8%
273 0% 99.8%
274 0.1% 99.8%
275 0% 99.7%
276 0.1% 99.7%
277 0.1% 99.6%
278 0.1% 99.5%
279 0.1% 99.5%
280 0.1% 99.4%
281 0.1% 99.3%
282 0.1% 99.2%
283 0.1% 99.1%
284 0.1% 99.0%
285 0.1% 98.9%
286 0.2% 98.8%
287 0.3% 98.6%
288 0.2% 98%
289 0.2% 98%
290 0.2% 98%
291 0.2% 98%
292 0.3% 98%
293 0.2% 97%
294 0.3% 97%
295 0.5% 97%
296 0.6% 96%
297 0.6% 96%
298 0.5% 95%
299 0.5% 95%
300 0.6% 94%
301 1.4% 94%
302 0.7% 92%
303 1.0% 91%
304 1.2% 90%
305 2% 89%
306 1.4% 88%
307 2% 86%
308 2% 84%
309 2% 82%
310 2% 80%
311 3% 78%
312 4% 75%
313 5% 71%
314 4% 66%
315 3% 62%
316 3% 59%
317 3% 56%
318 8% 54%
319 4% 46%
320 6% 43%
321 5% 37%
322 3% 32%
323 2% 29%
324 2% 27%
325 1.5% 25%
326 1.3% 24%
327 2% 22%
328 1.3% 20%
329 2% 19%
330 2% 17%
331 1.1% 15%
332 2% 14%
333 2% 13%
334 1.2% 11%
335 1.1% 10%
336 1.1% 9%
337 0.9% 8%
338 0.6% 7%
339 1.0% 6%
340 0.5% 5%
341 0.9% 5%
342 0.4% 4%
343 0.5% 3%
344 0.2% 3%
345 0.5% 3%
346 0.3% 2%
347 0.6% 2%
348 0.3% 1.3%
349 0.5% 1.0%
350 0.2% 0.6%
351 0.1% 0.4%
352 0.1% 0.3%
353 0% 0.2%
354 0.1% 0.2%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
209 0% 100%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.9%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.3% 99.6%
218 0.5% 99.3%
219 0.5% 98.7%
220 0.5% 98%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.4% 97%
223 0.3% 97%
224 0.3% 97%
225 0.7% 96%
226 1.0% 96%
227 0.8% 95%
228 0.7% 94%
229 0.6% 93%
230 1.0% 92%
231 1.5% 91%
232 1.4% 90%
233 1.1% 89%
234 1.4% 87%
235 2% 86%
236 2% 84%
237 2% 83%
238 2% 81%
239 2% 79%
240 2% 78%
241 2% 76%
242 1.3% 74%
243 2% 73%
244 3% 71%
245 4% 69%
246 5% 64%
247 7% 60%
248 7% 52%
249 5% 46%
250 3% 41%
251 2% 38%
252 3% 36%
253 5% 33%
254 5% 28%
255 4% 23%
256 3% 20%
257 2% 17%
258 1.4% 14%
259 1.4% 13%
260 1.5% 12%
261 1.2% 10%
262 1.0% 9%
263 0.9% 8%
264 0.7% 7%
265 0.9% 6%
266 0.9% 6%
267 0.6% 5%
268 0.2% 4%
269 0.3% 4%
270 0.5% 4%
271 0.5% 3%
272 0.5% 3%
273 0.2% 2%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0.1% 2%
276 0.1% 2%
277 0.1% 2%
278 0.2% 2%
279 0.2% 1.4%
280 0.3% 1.1%
281 0.2% 0.9%
282 0% 0.7%
283 0% 0.7%
284 0% 0.6%
285 0.1% 0.6%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0.1% 0.2%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.6% 99.9%
2 4% 99.4%
3 10% 95%
4 5% 85%
5 8% 80%
6 8% 72%
7 17% 65%
8 19% 48%
9 5% 29%
10 4% 24%
11 3% 21%
12 2% 18%
13 4% 15%
14 2% 11%
15 3% 9%
16 1.4% 6%
17 2% 5%
18 1.1% 3%
19 0.8% 2%
20 0.2% 1.1%
21 0.4% 0.9%
22 0.1% 0.5%
23 0.1% 0.4%
24 0.1% 0.3%
25 0.1% 0.2%
26 0.1% 0.1%
27 0% 0.1%
28 0% 0.1%
29 0% 0.1%
30 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 36% 100%
1 64% 64%
2 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 325 313–342 307–347 302–352 287–357
Conservative Party 331 318 304–335 298–340 292–345 278–350
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 255 239–270 233–276 228–282 223–295
Labour Party 232 248 231–261 226–266 221–272 217–286

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.8%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0.1% 99.7%
286 0.1% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0% 99.5%
289 0% 99.4%
290 0% 99.4%
291 0% 99.4%
292 0.1% 99.3%
293 0.3% 99.2%
294 0.2% 98.9%
295 0.2% 98.7%
296 0.2% 98.5%
297 0.1% 98%
298 0.1% 98%
299 0.1% 98%
300 0.1% 98%
301 0.3% 98%
302 0.5% 98%
303 0.4% 97%
304 0.3% 97%
305 0.3% 96%
306 0.4% 96%
307 0.8% 96%
308 1.0% 95%
309 0.5% 94%
310 0.8% 93%
311 1.0% 93%
312 1.2% 92%
313 1.1% 90%
314 2% 89%
315 2% 88%
316 2% 86%
317 2% 85%
318 4% 82%
319 4% 78%
320 4% 74%
321 3% 69%
322 2% 66%
323 4% 64%
324 3% 59%
325 6% 56%
326 6% 50%
327 5% 44%
328 4% 38%
329 4% 35%
330 2% 30%
331 2% 28%
332 2% 27%
333 2% 25%
334 2% 23%
335 2% 21%
336 1.3% 20%
337 2% 18%
338 2% 17%
339 1.2% 15%
340 1.2% 13%
341 2% 12%
342 1.4% 11%
343 1.0% 9%
344 0.9% 8%
345 0.7% 7%
346 0.8% 7%
347 1.0% 6%
348 0.5% 5%
349 0.5% 4%
350 0.4% 4%
351 0.5% 3%
352 0.3% 3%
353 0.5% 2%
354 0.4% 2%
355 0.6% 2%
356 0.3% 0.9%
357 0.2% 0.7%
358 0.1% 0.5%
359 0.1% 0.3%
360 0.1% 0.2%
361 0% 0.2%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
267 0% 100%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.8%
273 0% 99.8%
274 0.1% 99.8%
275 0% 99.7%
276 0.1% 99.7%
277 0.1% 99.6%
278 0.1% 99.5%
279 0.1% 99.5%
280 0.1% 99.4%
281 0.1% 99.3%
282 0.1% 99.2%
283 0.1% 99.1%
284 0.1% 99.0%
285 0.1% 98.9%
286 0.2% 98.8%
287 0.3% 98.6%
288 0.2% 98%
289 0.2% 98%
290 0.2% 98%
291 0.2% 98%
292 0.3% 98%
293 0.2% 97%
294 0.3% 97%
295 0.5% 97%
296 0.6% 96%
297 0.6% 96%
298 0.5% 95%
299 0.5% 95%
300 0.6% 94%
301 1.4% 94%
302 0.7% 92%
303 1.0% 91%
304 1.2% 90%
305 2% 89%
306 1.4% 88%
307 2% 86%
308 2% 84%
309 2% 82%
310 2% 80%
311 3% 78%
312 4% 75%
313 5% 71%
314 4% 66%
315 3% 62%
316 3% 59%
317 3% 56%
318 8% 54%
319 4% 46%
320 6% 43%
321 5% 37%
322 3% 32%
323 2% 29%
324 2% 27%
325 1.5% 25%
326 1.3% 24%
327 2% 22%
328 1.3% 20%
329 2% 19%
330 2% 17%
331 1.1% 15%
332 2% 14%
333 2% 13%
334 1.2% 11%
335 1.1% 10%
336 1.1% 9%
337 0.9% 8%
338 0.6% 7%
339 1.0% 6%
340 0.5% 5%
341 0.9% 5%
342 0.4% 4%
343 0.5% 3%
344 0.2% 3%
345 0.5% 3%
346 0.3% 2%
347 0.6% 2%
348 0.3% 1.3%
349 0.5% 1.0%
350 0.2% 0.6%
351 0.1% 0.4%
352 0.1% 0.3%
353 0% 0.2%
354 0.1% 0.2%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
216 0% 100%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0.1% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.8%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.2% 99.7%
223 0.2% 99.6%
224 0.4% 99.4%
225 0.3% 99.0%
226 0.5% 98.7%
227 0.4% 98%
228 0.4% 98%
229 0.3% 97%
230 0.5% 97%
231 0.5% 97%
232 0.7% 96%
233 0.6% 95%
234 0.9% 95%
235 0.7% 94%
236 1.0% 93%
237 0.9% 92%
238 1.0% 91%
239 1.3% 90%
240 1.5% 89%
241 1.4% 88%
242 1.2% 86%
243 2% 85%
244 2% 83%
245 1.4% 82%
246 2% 80%
247 2% 78%
248 2% 77%
249 2% 75%
250 2% 73%
251 3% 71%
252 5% 68%
253 4% 64%
254 4% 59%
255 6% 56%
256 4% 49%
257 3% 45%
258 3% 42%
259 3% 39%
260 5% 37%
261 4% 32%
262 4% 28%
263 3% 24%
264 2% 22%
265 2% 19%
266 2% 17%
267 2% 15%
268 2% 14%
269 2% 12%
270 1.1% 10%
271 0.9% 9%
272 1.1% 9%
273 0.9% 7%
274 0.7% 6%
275 0.6% 6%
276 0.4% 5%
277 0.6% 5%
278 0.6% 4%
279 0.4% 4%
280 0.3% 3%
281 0.3% 3%
282 0.3% 3%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.2% 2%
286 0.2% 2%
287 0.2% 2%
288 0.1% 1.3%
289 0.1% 1.2%
290 0.1% 1.1%
291 0.1% 1.0%
292 0.1% 0.9%
293 0.1% 0.8%
294 0.1% 0.7%
295 0.1% 0.6%
296 0.1% 0.5%
297 0.1% 0.4%
298 0.1% 0.4%
299 0.1% 0.3%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
209 0% 100%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.9%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.1% 99.7%
217 0.3% 99.6%
218 0.5% 99.3%
219 0.5% 98.7%
220 0.5% 98%
221 0.4% 98%
222 0.4% 97%
223 0.3% 97%
224 0.3% 97%
225 0.7% 96%
226 1.0% 96%
227 0.8% 95%
228 0.7% 94%
229 0.6% 93%
230 1.0% 92%
231 1.5% 91%
232 1.4% 90%
233 1.1% 89%
234 1.4% 87%
235 2% 86%
236 2% 84%
237 2% 83%
238 2% 81%
239 2% 79%
240 2% 78%
241 2% 76%
242 1.3% 74%
243 2% 73%
244 3% 71%
245 4% 69%
246 5% 64%
247 7% 60%
248 7% 52%
249 5% 46%
250 3% 41%
251 2% 38%
252 3% 36%
253 5% 33%
254 5% 28%
255 4% 23%
256 3% 20%
257 2% 17%
258 1.4% 14%
259 1.4% 13%
260 1.5% 12%
261 1.2% 10%
262 1.0% 9%
263 0.9% 8%
264 0.7% 7%
265 0.9% 6%
266 0.9% 6%
267 0.6% 5%
268 0.2% 4%
269 0.3% 4%
270 0.5% 4%
271 0.5% 3%
272 0.5% 3%
273 0.2% 2%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0.1% 2%
276 0.1% 2%
277 0.1% 2%
278 0.2% 2%
279 0.2% 1.4%
280 0.3% 1.1%
281 0.2% 0.9%
282 0% 0.7%
283 0% 0.7%
284 0% 0.6%
285 0.1% 0.6%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0.1% 0.4%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0% 0.2%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0.1% 0.2%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations