Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 26 May–1 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.2% 41.6–46.0% 41.0–46.6% 40.5–47.2% 39.4–48.2%
Labour Party 30.4% 35.9% 33.5–37.8% 32.9–38.4% 32.4–38.9% 31.4–39.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.6–8.5% 5.3–8.8% 4.9–9.4%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.8% 4.0–7.1% 3.6–7.7%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.8% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1% 3.5–6.4% 3.1–7.0%
Green Party 3.8% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.2% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.2% 0.5–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 338 320–353 316–357 314–364 306–372
Labour Party 232 231 215–250 211–254 206–259 195–271
Liberal Democrats 8 2 0–6 0–8 0–9 0–13
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 55 49–58 46–58 38–59 22–59
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 6 5–8 4–10 4–11 3–13

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
293 0% 100%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.8%
301 0% 99.8%
302 0% 99.8%
303 0% 99.7%
304 0% 99.7%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.5%
308 0.2% 99.3%
309 0.1% 99.1%
310 0.1% 99.0%
311 0.3% 98.9%
312 0.6% 98.6%
313 0.4% 98%
314 0.8% 98%
315 1.0% 97%
316 1.1% 96%
317 0.8% 95%
318 1.3% 94%
319 1.2% 92%
320 3% 91%
321 2% 88%
322 3% 86%
323 1.1% 83%
324 4% 82%
325 3% 78%
326 1.2% 75%
327 2% 74%
328 1.3% 73%
329 1.2% 71%
330 1.1% 70%
331 1.2% 69%
332 2% 68%
333 5% 66%
334 3% 61%
335 1.4% 58%
336 3% 57%
337 2% 54%
338 3% 52%
339 1.4% 49%
340 4% 48%
341 2% 44%
342 4% 42%
343 2% 38%
344 2% 36%
345 1.2% 34%
346 1.5% 33%
347 2% 31%
348 4% 29%
349 4% 25%
350 5% 22%
351 4% 16%
352 1.5% 12%
353 2% 11%
354 1.4% 9%
355 1.1% 8%
356 1.4% 7%
357 1.2% 6%
358 0.7% 4%
359 0.1% 4%
360 0.2% 4%
361 0.1% 3%
362 0.4% 3%
363 0.2% 3%
364 0.2% 3%
365 0.8% 2%
366 0.4% 2%
367 0.2% 1.3%
368 0.2% 1.1%
369 0.2% 0.9%
370 0.1% 0.7%
371 0.1% 0.6%
372 0.1% 0.6%
373 0.1% 0.5%
374 0% 0.4%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0% 0.3%
377 0.1% 0.2%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.8%
191 0% 99.8%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.1% 99.6%
196 0% 99.5%
197 0.1% 99.4%
198 0.1% 99.3%
199 0.3% 99.3%
200 0.2% 99.0%
201 0.1% 98.8%
202 0.2% 98.6%
203 0.4% 98%
204 0.3% 98%
205 0.1% 98%
206 0.7% 98%
207 0.2% 97%
208 0.4% 97%
209 0.4% 96%
210 0.8% 96%
211 0.2% 95%
212 0.8% 95%
213 2% 94%
214 1.1% 92%
215 2% 91%
216 1.4% 90%
217 4% 88%
218 2% 85%
219 5% 82%
220 4% 78%
221 3% 74%
222 1.2% 71%
223 3% 69%
224 0.6% 66%
225 2% 66%
226 3% 64%
227 1.0% 61%
228 4% 60%
229 2% 55%
230 1.4% 53%
231 4% 52%
232 2% 48%
233 3% 46%
234 2% 43%
235 1.1% 41%
236 1.5% 40%
237 2% 38%
238 2% 36%
239 2% 34%
240 2% 32%
241 1.4% 30%
242 1.4% 29%
243 2% 27%
244 3% 25%
245 3% 22%
246 1.2% 19%
247 3% 18%
248 2% 15%
249 2% 14%
250 3% 12%
251 1.3% 9%
252 0.5% 8%
253 1.4% 7%
254 0.6% 6%
255 0.8% 5%
256 0.8% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.5% 3%
259 0.4% 3%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.2% 2%
262 0.5% 2%
263 0.2% 1.3%
264 0.1% 1.1%
265 0.1% 1.0%
266 0.1% 0.9%
267 0% 0.8%
268 0.1% 0.8%
269 0% 0.7%
270 0.1% 0.7%
271 0.1% 0.6%
272 0% 0.5%
273 0% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 14% 100%
1 32% 86%
2 19% 54%
3 10% 35%
4 9% 25%
5 5% 16%
6 4% 11%
7 2% 8%
8 2% 5%
9 1.1% 3%
10 0.7% 2%
11 0.3% 1.3%
12 0.4% 1.0%
13 0.2% 0.6%
14 0.1% 0.3%
15 0.1% 0.2%
16 0% 0.1%
17 0% 0.1%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
7 0% 100%
8 0% 99.9%
9 0% 99.9%
10 0% 99.9%
11 0% 99.9%
12 0% 99.9%
13 0% 99.9%
14 0% 99.8%
15 0% 99.8%
16 0% 99.8%
17 0% 99.8%
18 0% 99.8%
19 0% 99.7%
20 0.1% 99.7%
21 0.1% 99.6%
22 0% 99.5%
23 0% 99.5%
24 0% 99.5%
25 0.1% 99.4%
26 0.1% 99.4%
27 0% 99.3%
28 0.1% 99.3%
29 0.1% 99.2%
30 0.1% 99.1%
31 0.4% 99.0%
32 0.1% 98.6%
33 0.1% 98.5%
34 0.1% 98%
35 0.1% 98%
36 0.1% 98%
37 0.4% 98%
38 0.4% 98%
39 0.4% 97%
40 0.1% 97%
41 0.1% 97%
42 0.2% 97%
43 0.3% 97%
44 0.2% 96%
45 0.6% 96%
46 1.1% 96%
47 1.1% 94%
48 2% 93%
49 3% 92%
50 2% 89%
51 4% 87%
52 5% 83%
53 4% 78%
54 10% 74%
55 15% 64%
56 31% 48%
57 7% 17%
58 7% 10%
59 3% 3%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 98.9% 100%
1 1.1% 1.1%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.1% 100%
1 0.1% 99.9%
2 0.1% 99.8%
3 2% 99.7%
4 4% 98%
5 41% 94%
6 7% 53%
7 32% 46%
8 8% 15%
9 1.1% 7%
10 1.4% 5%
11 3% 4%
12 0% 0.9%
13 0.3% 0.8%
14 0% 0.5%
15 0.3% 0.5%
16 0.1% 0.1%
17 0% 0.1%
18 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 399 379–414 375–418 370–424 355–433
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 393 373–408 369–411 364–418 350–426
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 345 325–360 322–364 319–370 312–379
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 341 322–356 319–360 316–367 308–376
Conservative Party 331 338 320–353 316–357 314–364 306–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 294 279–312 275–316 267–318 260–326
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 291 276–310 272–313 265–316 256–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 287 272–307 268–310 262–313 253–320
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 285 269–304 265–308 259–310 249–317
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 239 224–259 221–263 214–268 206–282
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 237 222–256 218–260 211–264 203–277
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 233 218–253 214–257 208–262 199–277
Labour Party 232 231 215–250 211–254 206–259 195–271

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
338 0% 100%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0.1% 99.9%
345 0% 99.8%
346 0% 99.8%
347 0.1% 99.8%
348 0% 99.8%
349 0% 99.8%
350 0% 99.7%
351 0% 99.7%
352 0% 99.7%
353 0% 99.7%
354 0% 99.6%
355 0.1% 99.6%
356 0.1% 99.5%
357 0.1% 99.4%
358 0% 99.3%
359 0% 99.3%
360 0.1% 99.2%
361 0.1% 99.2%
362 0% 99.0%
363 0.1% 99.0%
364 0.1% 98.9%
365 0.3% 98.7%
366 0.1% 98%
367 0.2% 98%
368 0.3% 98%
369 0.3% 98%
370 0.6% 98%
371 0.6% 97%
372 0.2% 96%
373 0.4% 96%
374 0.4% 96%
375 1.0% 95%
376 0.8% 94%
377 1.3% 94%
378 0.7% 92%
379 2% 91%
380 1.0% 89%
381 2% 88%
382 3% 86%
383 3% 84%
384 1.0% 80%
385 3% 79%
386 3% 77%
387 0.9% 74%
388 3% 73%
389 2% 70%
390 1.4% 67%
391 1.4% 66%
392 0.8% 64%
393 2% 63%
394 3% 62%
395 2% 58%
396 2% 56%
397 2% 54%
398 1.4% 52%
399 2% 50%
400 3% 48%
401 1.1% 45%
402 1.0% 44%
403 5% 43%
404 2% 38%
405 2% 36%
406 0.9% 33%
407 3% 33%
408 1.1% 30%
409 2% 29%
410 3% 27%
411 5% 24%
412 4% 19%
413 3% 15%
414 3% 12%
415 1.2% 10%
416 1.2% 8%
417 2% 7%
418 1.2% 6%
419 0.3% 4%
420 0.5% 4%
421 0.2% 4%
422 0.4% 3%
423 0.2% 3%
424 0.5% 3%
425 0.3% 2%
426 0.4% 2%
427 0.1% 2%
428 0.3% 2%
429 0.1% 1.2%
430 0.2% 1.1%
431 0.1% 0.9%
432 0.1% 0.8%
433 0.2% 0.7%
434 0.1% 0.5%
435 0% 0.4%
436 0.1% 0.4%
437 0% 0.3%
438 0% 0.3%
439 0% 0.2%
440 0.1% 0.2%
441 0.1% 0.2%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
332 0% 100%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0% 99.7%
344 0% 99.7%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0% 99.7%
347 0.1% 99.7%
348 0.1% 99.6%
349 0% 99.6%
350 0.1% 99.5%
351 0.1% 99.4%
352 0.1% 99.3%
353 0% 99.3%
354 0% 99.2%
355 0.1% 99.2%
356 0.1% 99.1%
357 0.1% 99.0%
358 0.1% 98.9%
359 0.2% 98.8%
360 0.4% 98.6%
361 0.2% 98%
362 0.1% 98%
363 0.4% 98%
364 0.4% 98%
365 0.5% 97%
366 0.6% 97%
367 0.4% 96%
368 0.3% 96%
369 0.8% 95%
370 1.3% 94%
371 0.6% 93%
372 1.5% 93%
373 1.2% 91%
374 2% 90%
375 1.3% 88%
376 2% 86%
377 4% 85%
378 4% 81%
379 1.3% 77%
380 0.6% 76%
381 3% 75%
382 2% 72%
383 2% 70%
384 0.8% 68%
385 2% 67%
386 2% 65%
387 2% 63%
388 1.2% 60%
389 4% 59%
390 3% 55%
391 0.9% 52%
392 2% 52%
393 3% 50%
394 2% 47%
395 2% 45%
396 2% 43%
397 2% 42%
398 5% 39%
399 1.4% 34%
400 2% 33%
401 0.7% 31%
402 3% 30%
403 1.5% 27%
404 4% 26%
405 3% 22%
406 6% 19%
407 3% 13%
408 2% 10%
409 1.5% 9%
410 1.1% 7%
411 1.2% 6%
412 1.0% 5%
413 0.7% 4%
414 0.2% 3%
415 0.2% 3%
416 0.1% 3%
417 0.1% 3%
418 0.4% 3%
419 0.4% 2%
420 0.2% 2%
421 0.5% 2%
422 0.1% 1.1%
423 0.2% 1.1%
424 0.1% 0.8%
425 0.2% 0.7%
426 0.1% 0.5%
427 0.1% 0.4%
428 0.1% 0.4%
429 0.1% 0.3%
430 0% 0.3%
431 0% 0.3%
432 0% 0.2%
433 0% 0.2%
434 0% 0.1%
435 0% 0.1%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
299 0% 100%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0.1% 99.9%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0.1% 99.7%
311 0.1% 99.6%
312 0.2% 99.6%
313 0.3% 99.4%
314 0.1% 99.1%
315 0.1% 99.1%
316 0.1% 99.0%
317 0.5% 98.9%
318 0.5% 98%
319 0.6% 98%
320 0.5% 97%
321 1.0% 97%
322 1.4% 96%
323 1.1% 94%
324 0.8% 93%
325 3% 92%
326 1.2% 90%
327 3% 89%
328 2% 86%
329 2% 84%
330 3% 82%
331 3% 79%
332 1.0% 76%
333 1.1% 75%
334 2% 73%
335 1.3% 71%
336 0.7% 70%
337 2% 69%
338 0.9% 67%
339 5% 67%
340 3% 62%
341 3% 59%
342 2% 56%
343 1.3% 54%
344 2% 53%
345 4% 51%
346 1.4% 47%
347 5% 46%
348 1.1% 41%
349 3% 40%
350 2% 37%
351 2% 35%
352 2% 33%
353 0.9% 31%
354 4% 31%
355 5% 27%
356 5% 22%
357 2% 17%
358 4% 16%
359 1.0% 11%
360 0.9% 10%
361 2% 10%
362 1.4% 8%
363 0.9% 6%
364 1.2% 6%
365 0.2% 4%
366 0.4% 4%
367 0.2% 4%
368 0.3% 3%
369 0.2% 3%
370 0.8% 3%
371 0.1% 2%
372 0.2% 2%
373 0.5% 2%
374 0.2% 1.3%
375 0.1% 1.1%
376 0.1% 1.0%
377 0.2% 0.9%
378 0.1% 0.7%
379 0.1% 0.6%
380 0.1% 0.5%
381 0% 0.4%
382 0% 0.3%
383 0% 0.3%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0% 0.2%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
296 0% 100%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0% 99.8%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.8%
307 0% 99.7%
308 0.2% 99.7%
309 0% 99.5%
310 0.2% 99.5%
311 0.1% 99.3%
312 0.3% 99.2%
313 0.1% 98.9%
314 0.4% 98.8%
315 0.5% 98%
316 0.5% 98%
317 1.5% 97%
318 1.0% 96%
319 0.7% 95%
320 1.0% 94%
321 1.1% 93%
322 3% 92%
323 3% 90%
324 2% 87%
325 2% 85%
326 4% 83%
327 3% 79%
328 1.2% 76%
329 0.7% 75%
330 1.1% 74%
331 2% 73%
332 1.3% 71%
333 2% 70%
334 1.3% 68%
335 4% 67%
336 2% 63%
337 2% 61%
338 3% 59%
339 1.3% 55%
340 2% 54%
341 4% 52%
342 2% 48%
343 6% 46%
344 1.0% 40%
345 2% 39%
346 2% 37%
347 3% 35%
348 0.9% 33%
349 3% 32%
350 2% 29%
351 7% 27%
352 3% 20%
353 3% 17%
354 2% 14%
355 1.3% 12%
356 2% 11%
357 1.4% 9%
358 1.4% 8%
359 1.1% 6%
360 0.4% 5%
361 0.4% 5%
362 0.6% 4%
363 0.2% 4%
364 0.2% 4%
365 0.6% 3%
366 0.2% 3%
367 0.6% 3%
368 0.1% 2%
369 0.4% 2%
370 0.3% 1.4%
371 0.2% 1.1%
372 0.1% 0.9%
373 0.1% 0.8%
374 0.1% 0.7%
375 0.1% 0.6%
376 0.1% 0.5%
377 0.1% 0.4%
378 0.1% 0.3%
379 0.1% 0.3%
380 0% 0.2%
381 0% 0.2%
382 0.1% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
293 0% 100%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.8%
301 0% 99.8%
302 0% 99.8%
303 0% 99.7%
304 0% 99.7%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.5%
308 0.2% 99.3%
309 0.1% 99.1%
310 0.1% 99.0%
311 0.3% 98.9%
312 0.6% 98.6%
313 0.4% 98%
314 0.8% 98%
315 1.0% 97%
316 1.1% 96%
317 0.8% 95%
318 1.3% 94%
319 1.2% 92%
320 3% 91%
321 2% 88%
322 3% 86%
323 1.1% 83%
324 4% 82%
325 3% 78%
326 1.2% 75%
327 2% 74%
328 1.3% 73%
329 1.2% 71%
330 1.1% 70%
331 1.2% 69%
332 2% 68%
333 5% 66%
334 3% 61%
335 1.4% 58%
336 3% 57%
337 2% 54%
338 3% 52%
339 1.4% 49%
340 4% 48%
341 2% 44%
342 4% 42%
343 2% 38%
344 2% 36%
345 1.2% 34%
346 1.5% 33%
347 2% 31%
348 4% 29%
349 4% 25%
350 5% 22%
351 4% 16%
352 1.5% 12%
353 2% 11%
354 1.4% 9%
355 1.1% 8%
356 1.4% 7%
357 1.2% 6%
358 0.7% 4%
359 0.1% 4%
360 0.2% 4%
361 0.1% 3%
362 0.4% 3%
363 0.2% 3%
364 0.2% 3%
365 0.8% 2%
366 0.4% 2%
367 0.2% 1.3%
368 0.2% 1.1%
369 0.2% 0.9%
370 0.1% 0.7%
371 0.1% 0.6%
372 0.1% 0.6%
373 0.1% 0.5%
374 0% 0.4%
375 0.1% 0.3%
376 0% 0.3%
377 0.1% 0.2%
378 0% 0.2%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
250 0% 100%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0.1% 99.8%
256 0% 99.8%
257 0.1% 99.7%
258 0% 99.7%
259 0.1% 99.6%
260 0.1% 99.5%
261 0.1% 99.4%
262 0.1% 99.4%
263 0.2% 99.3%
264 0.2% 99.1%
265 0.2% 98.9%
266 0.5% 98.7%
267 0.8% 98%
268 0.2% 97%
269 0.2% 97%
270 0.3% 97%
271 0.1% 97%
272 0.2% 97%
273 0.1% 96%
274 0.7% 96%
275 1.2% 96%
276 1.4% 94%
277 1.2% 93%
278 1.4% 92%
279 2% 90%
280 1.5% 89%
281 4% 87%
282 5% 84%
283 4% 78%
284 4% 75%
285 2% 71%
286 1.4% 69%
287 1.3% 67%
288 2% 66%
289 2% 64%
290 4% 62%
291 2% 58%
292 4% 56%
293 1.3% 52%
294 3% 51%
295 2% 48%
296 3% 46%
297 1.4% 43%
298 3% 42%
299 5% 39%
300 2% 34%
301 1.2% 32%
302 1.0% 31%
303 1.2% 30%
304 1.2% 29%
305 2% 27%
306 1.2% 26%
307 3% 24%
308 4% 22%
309 1.1% 18%
310 3% 17%
311 2% 14%
312 3% 12%
313 1.2% 9%
314 1.3% 8%
315 0.8% 6%
316 1.1% 5%
317 1.0% 4%
318 0.8% 3%
319 0.4% 2%
320 0.6% 2%
321 0.3% 1.4%
322 0.1% 1.1%
323 0.1% 1.0%
324 0.2% 0.9%
325 0.1% 0.7%
326 0.1% 0.5%
327 0.1% 0.4%
328 0% 0.3%
329 0% 0.3%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0% 0.2%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
247 0% 100%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.8%
253 0.1% 99.8%
254 0.1% 99.7%
255 0.1% 99.7%
256 0.1% 99.6%
257 0.1% 99.5%
258 0.1% 99.4%
259 0.1% 99.3%
260 0.1% 99.2%
261 0.2% 99.1%
262 0.3% 98.9%
263 0.4% 98.6%
264 0.1% 98%
265 0.6% 98%
266 0.2% 97%
267 0.6% 97%
268 0.2% 97%
269 0.2% 96%
270 0.6% 96%
271 0.4% 96%
272 0.4% 95%
273 1.1% 95%
274 1.5% 94%
275 1.4% 92%
276 2% 91%
277 1.3% 89%
278 2% 88%
279 3% 86%
280 3% 83%
281 7% 80%
282 2% 73%
283 3% 71%
284 0.9% 68%
285 3% 67%
286 2% 65%
287 2% 63%
288 1.0% 61%
289 6% 60%
290 2% 54%
291 4% 52%
292 2% 48%
293 1.3% 46%
294 3% 45%
295 2% 41%
296 2% 39%
297 4% 37%
298 1.2% 33%
299 2% 32%
300 1.3% 30%
301 2% 29%
302 1.1% 27%
303 0.7% 26%
304 1.2% 25%
305 3% 24%
306 4% 21%
307 2% 17%
308 2% 15%
309 3% 13%
310 3% 10%
311 1.1% 8%
312 1.0% 7%
313 0.7% 6%
314 1.0% 5%
315 1.5% 4%
316 0.5% 3%
317 0.5% 2%
318 0.4% 2%
319 0.1% 1.2%
320 0.3% 1.1%
321 0.1% 0.8%
322 0.2% 0.7%
323 0% 0.5%
324 0.2% 0.5%
325 0% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.3%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
243 0% 100%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.8%
249 0% 99.7%
250 0% 99.7%
251 0% 99.7%
252 0.1% 99.6%
253 0.1% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.4%
255 0.2% 99.3%
256 0.1% 99.1%
257 0.1% 99.0%
258 0.2% 98.9%
259 0.5% 98.7%
260 0.2% 98%
261 0.1% 98%
262 0.8% 98%
263 0.2% 97%
264 0.3% 97%
265 0.2% 97%
266 0.4% 96%
267 0.2% 96%
268 1.2% 96%
269 0.9% 94%
270 1.4% 94%
271 2% 92%
272 0.9% 90%
273 1.0% 90%
274 4% 89%
275 2% 84%
276 5% 83%
277 5% 78%
278 4% 73%
279 0.9% 69%
280 2% 68%
281 2% 67%
282 2% 65%
283 3% 63%
284 1.1% 60%
285 5% 59%
286 1.4% 54%
287 4% 53%
288 2% 49%
289 1.3% 47%
290 2% 46%
291 3% 44%
292 3% 41%
293 5% 38%
294 0.9% 33%
295 2% 32%
296 0.7% 31%
297 1.3% 30%
298 2% 29%
299 1.1% 27%
300 1.0% 25%
301 3% 24%
302 3% 21%
303 2% 18%
304 2% 16%
305 3% 14%
306 1.2% 11%
307 3% 10%
308 0.8% 7%
309 1.1% 7%
310 1.4% 6%
311 1.0% 4%
312 0.5% 3%
313 0.6% 3%
314 0.5% 2%
315 0.5% 2%
316 0.1% 1.1%
317 0.1% 1.0%
318 0.1% 0.9%
319 0.3% 0.9%
320 0.2% 0.6%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.4%
323 0% 0.3%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0.1% 0.2%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0.1% 99.8%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.7%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.5%
250 0.1% 99.5%
251 0.1% 99.4%
252 0.1% 99.3%
253 0.1% 99.2%
254 0.2% 99.1%
255 0.2% 98.8%
256 0.4% 98.6%
257 0.2% 98%
258 0.2% 98%
259 0.3% 98%
260 0.6% 97%
261 0.3% 97%
262 0.5% 97%
263 0.4% 96%
264 0.3% 96%
265 0.9% 95%
266 1.2% 94%
267 0.6% 93%
268 1.4% 93%
269 2% 91%
270 0.9% 89%
271 2% 88%
272 2% 86%
273 3% 84%
274 3% 81%
275 4% 79%
276 5% 75%
277 2% 70%
278 2% 67%
279 0.9% 65%
280 2% 64%
281 2% 62%
282 3% 60%
283 0.6% 57%
284 6% 56%
285 2% 50%
286 2% 48%
287 2% 46%
288 2% 44%
289 4% 42%
290 2% 38%
291 2% 36%
292 2% 34%
293 2% 32%
294 1.4% 30%
295 2% 28%
296 1.2% 27%
297 0.7% 26%
298 3% 25%
299 2% 22%
300 2% 20%
301 4% 19%
302 2% 15%
303 2% 13%
304 2% 11%
305 2% 9%
306 1.1% 7%
307 0.5% 6%
308 1.0% 5%
309 1.2% 4%
310 0.8% 3%
311 0.4% 2%
312 0.3% 2%
313 0.5% 1.4%
314 0.1% 0.9%
315 0.1% 0.8%
316 0.1% 0.7%
317 0.2% 0.6%
318 0.1% 0.5%
319 0.1% 0.4%
320 0% 0.3%
321 0.1% 0.3%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.8%
201 0% 99.8%
202 0% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.7%
204 0.1% 99.7%
205 0.1% 99.6%
206 0.1% 99.6%
207 0.2% 99.5%
208 0.1% 99.3%
209 0.2% 99.2%
210 0.1% 98.9%
211 0.5% 98.9%
212 0.2% 98%
213 0.4% 98%
214 0.4% 98%
215 0.1% 97%
216 0.1% 97%
217 0.2% 97%
218 0.1% 97%
219 0.7% 97%
220 0.9% 96%
221 1.2% 95%
222 1.1% 94%
223 1.5% 93%
224 2% 91%
225 3% 90%
226 6% 87%
227 3% 81%
228 4% 78%
229 1.4% 74%
230 3% 73%
231 0.8% 70%
232 2% 69%
233 1.3% 67%
234 5% 66%
235 2% 61%
236 1.5% 58%
237 2% 57%
238 2% 55%
239 3% 53%
240 2% 50%
241 0.9% 48%
242 3% 48%
243 4% 45%
244 1.2% 41%
245 2% 40%
246 2% 37%
247 2% 35%
248 0.8% 33%
249 2% 32%
250 2% 30%
251 3% 28%
252 0.6% 25%
253 1.3% 24%
254 4% 23%
255 4% 19%
256 2% 15%
257 1.3% 14%
258 2% 12%
259 1.2% 10%
260 1.5% 9%
261 0.6% 7%
262 1.3% 7%
263 0.8% 6%
264 0.3% 5%
265 0.4% 4%
266 0.6% 4%
267 0.5% 3%
268 0.4% 3%
269 0.4% 2%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.2% 2%
272 0.4% 2%
273 0.2% 1.4%
274 0.1% 1.2%
275 0.1% 1.1%
276 0.2% 1.0%
277 0.1% 0.9%
278 0% 0.8%
279 0% 0.8%
280 0.1% 0.7%
281 0.1% 0.7%
282 0.1% 0.6%
283 0% 0.5%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0.1% 0.4%
286 0% 0.3%
287 0% 0.3%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0.1% 0.3%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0.1% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0.1% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.8%
200 0% 99.7%
201 0.1% 99.7%
202 0% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.6%
204 0.1% 99.5%
205 0.1% 99.4%
206 0.3% 99.3%
207 0.3% 99.0%
208 0.2% 98.8%
209 0.2% 98.6%
210 0.3% 98%
211 0.9% 98%
212 0.1% 97%
213 0% 97%
214 0.1% 97%
215 0.6% 97%
216 0.2% 96%
217 0.4% 96%
218 0.8% 96%
219 0.7% 95%
220 2% 94%
221 1.5% 92%
222 1.3% 91%
223 2% 90%
224 5% 88%
225 6% 83%
226 3% 78%
227 3% 75%
228 1.0% 71%
229 1.2% 70%
230 3% 69%
231 1.1% 65%
232 2% 64%
233 5% 63%
234 2% 58%
235 2% 56%
236 3% 54%
237 2% 52%
238 4% 50%
239 3% 45%
240 0.8% 43%
241 1.2% 42%
242 3% 41%
243 2% 38%
244 2% 36%
245 2% 34%
246 2% 32%
247 1.4% 29%
248 0.8% 28%
249 0.9% 27%
250 3% 26%
251 3% 23%
252 3% 20%
253 2% 17%
254 3% 15%
255 3% 13%
256 1.1% 10%
257 1.2% 9%
258 1.2% 8%
259 0.8% 7%
260 1.4% 6%
261 0.4% 4%
262 0.4% 4%
263 0.7% 4%
264 0.4% 3%
265 0.2% 2%
266 0.3% 2%
267 0.5% 2%
268 0.1% 1.4%
269 0.1% 1.3%
270 0.1% 1.2%
271 0.1% 1.0%
272 0.1% 0.9%
273 0.1% 0.8%
274 0.1% 0.8%
275 0.1% 0.7%
276 0.1% 0.6%
277 0% 0.5%
278 0% 0.5%
279 0.1% 0.5%
280 0% 0.4%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0.1% 0.3%
283 0% 0.3%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0.1% 0.2%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0% 100%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0% 99.8%
194 0% 99.8%
195 0% 99.7%
196 0.1% 99.7%
197 0% 99.6%
198 0.1% 99.6%
199 0.2% 99.5%
200 0.1% 99.3%
201 0.1% 99.2%
202 0.2% 99.1%
203 0.1% 98.9%
204 0.3% 98.8%
205 0.1% 98%
206 0.4% 98%
207 0.3% 98%
208 0.5% 98%
209 0.2% 97%
210 0.4% 97%
211 0.2% 97%
212 0.5% 96%
213 0.3% 96%
214 1.2% 95%
215 2% 94%
216 1.2% 93%
217 1.2% 92%
218 3% 90%
219 3% 88%
220 4% 85%
221 5% 81%
222 3% 76%
223 2% 73%
224 1.1% 71%
225 3% 70%
226 0.9% 67%
227 3% 67%
228 2% 64%
229 5% 62%
230 1.1% 57%
231 1.0% 56%
232 3% 55%
233 2% 52%
234 1.4% 50%
235 2% 48%
236 2% 46%
237 2% 44%
238 3% 42%
239 2% 38%
240 0.8% 37%
241 1.4% 36%
242 1.4% 34%
243 2% 33%
244 3% 30%
245 0.8% 27%
246 3% 26%
247 3% 23%
248 1.0% 21%
249 3% 20%
250 3% 16%
251 2% 14%
252 1.0% 12%
253 2% 11%
254 0.7% 9%
255 1.3% 8%
256 0.8% 6%
257 1.0% 6%
258 0.4% 5%
259 0.4% 4%
260 0.2% 4%
261 0.6% 4%
262 0.6% 3%
263 0.3% 2%
264 0.3% 2%
265 0.2% 2%
266 0.1% 2%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0.1% 1.3%
269 0.1% 1.1%
270 0% 1.0%
271 0.1% 1.0%
272 0.1% 0.8%
273 0% 0.8%
274 0% 0.7%
275 0.1% 0.7%
276 0.1% 0.6%
277 0.1% 0.5%
278 0% 0.4%
279 0% 0.4%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0% 0.3%
283 0% 0.3%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0.1% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0% 0.2%
288 0.1% 0.2%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.8%
191 0% 99.8%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.7%
195 0.1% 99.6%
196 0% 99.5%
197 0.1% 99.4%
198 0.1% 99.3%
199 0.3% 99.3%
200 0.2% 99.0%
201 0.1% 98.8%
202 0.2% 98.6%
203 0.4% 98%
204 0.3% 98%
205 0.1% 98%
206 0.7% 98%
207 0.2% 97%
208 0.4% 97%
209 0.4% 96%
210 0.8% 96%
211 0.2% 95%
212 0.8% 95%
213 2% 94%
214 1.1% 92%
215 2% 91%
216 1.4% 90%
217 4% 88%
218 2% 85%
219 5% 82%
220 4% 78%
221 3% 74%
222 1.2% 71%
223 3% 69%
224 0.6% 66%
225 2% 66%
226 3% 64%
227 1.0% 61%
228 4% 60%
229 2% 55%
230 1.4% 53%
231 4% 52%
232 2% 48%
233 3% 46%
234 2% 43%
235 1.1% 41%
236 1.5% 40%
237 2% 38%
238 2% 36%
239 2% 34%
240 2% 32%
241 1.4% 30%
242 1.4% 29%
243 2% 27%
244 3% 25%
245 3% 22%
246 1.2% 19%
247 3% 18%
248 2% 15%
249 2% 14%
250 3% 12%
251 1.3% 9%
252 0.5% 8%
253 1.4% 7%
254 0.6% 6%
255 0.8% 5%
256 0.8% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.5% 3%
259 0.4% 3%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.2% 2%
262 0.5% 2%
263 0.2% 1.3%
264 0.1% 1.1%
265 0.1% 1.0%
266 0.1% 0.9%
267 0% 0.8%
268 0.1% 0.8%
269 0% 0.7%
270 0.1% 0.7%
271 0.1% 0.6%
272 0% 0.5%
273 0% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations