Opinion Poll by ComRes for The Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday, 31 May–2 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.6% 44.8–48.4% 44.3–48.9% 43.9–49.3% 43.0–50.2%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.9% 33.2–36.6% 32.7–37.1% 32.3–37.5% 31.5–38.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.3–9.8% 7.0–10.1% 6.6–10.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.4% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.5% 2.9–4.2% 2.7–4.5% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–5.0%
Green Party 3.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.8–2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
British National Party 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 356 339–370 336–373 329–376 323–383
Labour Party 232 221 206–252 202–258 198–267 190–281
Liberal Democrats 8 11 6–16 4–17 3–17 2–21
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 43 9–51 5–52 4–54 3–55
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–7
British National Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0% 100%
318 0.1% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.2% 99.6%
324 0.2% 99.4%
325 0.3% 99.2%
326 0.1% 98.9%
327 0.4% 98.7%
328 0.4% 98%
329 0.7% 98%
330 0.1% 97%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.2% 97%
333 0.3% 97%
334 0.2% 96%
335 0.9% 96%
336 1.3% 95%
337 0.6% 94%
338 0.6% 93%
339 3% 93%
340 0.3% 90%
341 0.4% 89%
342 1.0% 89%
343 0.3% 88%
344 0.9% 88%
345 1.3% 87%
346 1.1% 85%
347 3% 84%
348 4% 81%
349 4% 77%
350 2% 73%
351 2% 72%
352 7% 70%
353 2% 63%
354 4% 61%
355 6% 57%
356 6% 52%
357 3% 46%
358 5% 42%
359 3% 37%
360 3% 35%
361 2% 31%
362 0.6% 30%
363 1.1% 29%
364 3% 28%
365 5% 25%
366 7% 20%
367 0.5% 14%
368 0.6% 13%
369 2% 12%
370 2% 11%
371 0.7% 8%
372 2% 8%
373 1.2% 6%
374 0.2% 5%
375 2% 5%
376 2% 3%
377 0.1% 2%
378 0.4% 2%
379 0.1% 1.2%
380 0.2% 1.1%
381 0.2% 0.9%
382 0.1% 0.7%
383 0.2% 0.6%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0.3% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.5%
192 0.1% 99.4%
193 0.1% 99.4%
194 0.1% 99.3%
195 0.1% 99.2%
196 0.2% 99.2%
197 0.5% 99.0%
198 1.3% 98.6%
199 0.5% 97%
200 1.4% 97%
201 0.3% 95%
202 0.2% 95%
203 0.2% 95%
204 0.3% 95%
205 0.9% 94%
206 8% 93%
207 4% 86%
208 0.6% 82%
209 4% 81%
210 0.7% 77%
211 0.3% 77%
212 0.3% 76%
213 0.4% 76%
214 0.7% 76%
215 3% 75%
216 0.8% 72%
217 6% 71%
218 6% 65%
219 3% 58%
220 5% 56%
221 2% 51%
222 4% 48%
223 4% 45%
224 4% 41%
225 2% 37%
226 1.4% 34%
227 0.3% 33%
228 0.9% 33%
229 0.6% 32%
230 0.9% 31%
231 0.5% 30%
232 2% 30%
233 1.2% 28%
234 0.5% 26%
235 3% 26%
236 0.6% 23%
237 0.8% 22%
238 0.3% 21%
239 0.2% 21%
240 0.7% 21%
241 0.7% 20%
242 2% 20%
243 1.2% 18%
244 1.3% 17%
245 0.7% 15%
246 0.5% 15%
247 0.2% 14%
248 3% 14%
249 0.4% 11%
250 0.2% 11%
251 0.3% 11%
252 2% 11%
253 0.7% 9%
254 0.4% 8%
255 1.3% 8%
256 0.2% 6%
257 0.5% 6%
258 1.2% 6%
259 0.3% 5%
260 0.2% 4%
261 0.1% 4%
262 0.2% 4%
263 0.3% 4%
264 0.3% 3%
265 0.1% 3%
266 0.1% 3%
267 0.4% 3%
268 0% 2%
269 0.2% 2%
270 0.3% 2%
271 0.1% 2%
272 0.7% 2%
273 0% 1.1%
274 0.1% 1.1%
275 0% 1.0%
276 0.1% 1.0%
277 0.3% 0.9%
278 0% 0.7%
279 0% 0.6%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0% 0.5%
282 0.3% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.2%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.1% 100%
2 1.0% 99.9%
3 2% 98.9%
4 3% 97%
5 3% 94%
6 8% 92%
7 7% 84%
8 11% 76%
9 4% 66%
10 4% 61%
11 16% 57%
12 6% 41%
13 7% 35%
14 11% 28%
15 7% 17%
16 5% 10%
17 3% 5%
18 0.7% 2%
19 0.4% 1.1%
20 0% 0.6%
21 0.3% 0.6%
22 0% 0.3%
23 0.2% 0.3%
24 0% 0.1%
25 0% 0.1%
26 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.3% 100%
3 2% 99.7%
4 2% 98%
5 1.1% 96%
6 1.4% 95%
7 0.7% 93%
8 0.9% 92%
9 3% 92%
10 0.9% 89%
11 0.6% 88%
12 1.3% 87%
13 0.4% 86%
14 0.5% 86%
15 0.8% 85%
16 2% 84%
17 2% 83%
18 0.2% 81%
19 0.7% 80%
20 0.4% 80%
21 0.1% 79%
22 0.1% 79%
23 0.2% 79%
24 0.6% 79%
25 0.3% 78%
26 0.1% 78%
27 0.1% 78%
28 0.6% 78%
29 0.4% 77%
30 1.1% 77%
31 0.4% 76%
32 0.2% 75%
33 0.3% 75%
34 0.1% 75%
35 0.1% 75%
36 0.1% 75%
37 0.1% 74%
38 0.9% 74%
39 0.7% 73%
40 2% 73%
41 5% 71%
42 13% 66%
43 7% 53%
44 2% 46%
45 13% 44%
46 4% 31%
47 3% 27%
48 5% 24%
49 3% 19%
50 4% 15%
51 6% 12%
52 1.3% 6%
53 1.4% 5%
54 2% 3%
55 1.0% 1.3%
56 0.2% 0.2%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.8% 100%
1 0.2% 0.2%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 10% 100%
1 0.6% 90%
2 8% 89%
3 34% 81%
4 22% 46%
5 22% 25%
6 0.8% 2%
7 1.4% 2%
8 0.1% 0.1%
9 0% 0%

British National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 401 368–418 360–421 349–426 338–433
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 397 364–415 358–418 346–421 335–429
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 367 350–380 345–384 341–387 333–394
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 358 342–374 339–378 332–380 326–388
Conservative Party 331 356 339–370 336–373 329–376 323–383
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 276 262–293 259–296 256–303 249–309
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 274 258–290 254–293 252–300 244–306
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 265 252–282 248–287 245–291 238–299
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 262 248–277 244–283 241–288 234–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 235 217–268 214–274 211–286 203–297
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 231 214–264 211–272 206–283 199–294
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 224 209–255 205–262 202–271 195–285
Labour Party 232 221 206–252 202–258 198–267 190–281

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
331 0.1% 100%
332 0% 99.9%
333 0% 99.9%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0.1% 99.9%
337 0.1% 99.8%
338 0.2% 99.7%
339 0.3% 99.4%
340 0.1% 99.2%
341 0% 99.1%
342 0% 99.1%
343 0% 99.0%
344 0.4% 99.0%
345 0% 98.6%
346 0.1% 98.6%
347 0.1% 98.5%
348 0.4% 98%
349 0.7% 98%
350 0% 97%
351 0.1% 97%
352 0.1% 97%
353 0.3% 97%
354 0% 97%
355 0.1% 97%
356 0.4% 97%
357 0.6% 96%
358 0.2% 96%
359 0.4% 95%
360 0.3% 95%
361 0.1% 95%
362 0.3% 95%
363 2% 94%
364 0.1% 92%
365 0.5% 92%
366 1.4% 92%
367 0.3% 90%
368 1.4% 90%
369 0.7% 89%
370 0.6% 88%
371 0.5% 87%
372 0.8% 87%
373 0.2% 86%
374 1.0% 86%
375 0.7% 85%
376 2% 84%
377 0.3% 83%
378 2% 82%
379 1.0% 81%
380 0.3% 80%
381 0.3% 79%
382 0.8% 79%
383 0.7% 78%
384 0.6% 77%
385 1.4% 77%
386 0.7% 75%
387 0.4% 75%
388 0.5% 74%
389 1.4% 74%
390 3% 72%
391 0.7% 70%
392 0.5% 69%
393 1.0% 68%
394 1.0% 67%
395 1.3% 66%
396 4% 65%
397 0.7% 61%
398 2% 60%
399 3% 59%
400 2% 56%
401 9% 53%
402 2% 44%
403 7% 43%
404 1.0% 36%
405 0.8% 35%
406 4% 34%
407 0.8% 30%
408 0.3% 29%
409 4% 29%
410 2% 24%
411 2% 22%
412 4% 20%
413 0.8% 16%
414 0.3% 15%
415 0.3% 15%
416 1.4% 15%
417 0.5% 13%
418 3% 13%
419 0.6% 10%
420 4% 9%
421 1.2% 6%
422 0.1% 5%
423 0.1% 4%
424 0.3% 4%
425 0.5% 4%
426 1.2% 4%
427 1.3% 2%
428 0.2% 1.1%
429 0.2% 0.9%
430 0.1% 0.7%
431 0% 0.6%
432 0% 0.6%
433 0% 0.5%
434 0% 0.5%
435 0% 0.4%
436 0.3% 0.4%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0.1% 0.1%
439 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
328 0% 100%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.9%
332 0.1% 99.9%
333 0.1% 99.8%
334 0% 99.7%
335 0.2% 99.7%
336 0.2% 99.5%
337 0.1% 99.2%
338 0% 99.1%
339 0% 99.1%
340 0% 99.0%
341 0% 99.0%
342 0.4% 99.0%
343 0.4% 98.5%
344 0.1% 98%
345 0.5% 98%
346 0.3% 98%
347 0.1% 97%
348 0% 97%
349 0.3% 97%
350 0% 97%
351 0.1% 97%
352 0.3% 97%
353 0.1% 96%
354 0.2% 96%
355 0.2% 96%
356 0.1% 96%
357 0.5% 96%
358 0.4% 95%
359 0.8% 95%
360 0.7% 94%
361 1.2% 93%
362 0.2% 92%
363 2% 92%
364 0.5% 90%
365 1.3% 90%
366 0.9% 88%
367 0.9% 88%
368 0.6% 87%
369 0.2% 86%
370 0.3% 86%
371 1.1% 86%
372 0.5% 84%
373 2% 84%
374 0.5% 82%
375 0.8% 81%
376 0.5% 80%
377 0.5% 80%
378 0.2% 79%
379 1.1% 79%
380 0.5% 78%
381 1.4% 77%
382 0.8% 76%
383 0.7% 75%
384 0.8% 74%
385 1.5% 74%
386 0.4% 72%
387 2% 72%
388 1.0% 69%
389 1.3% 68%
390 0.5% 67%
391 1.3% 67%
392 0.8% 65%
393 3% 65%
394 4% 62%
395 0.5% 58%
396 2% 57%
397 6% 56%
398 0.6% 50%
399 8% 49%
400 4% 42%
401 3% 37%
402 0.9% 35%
403 3% 34%
404 2% 31%
405 3% 30%
406 4% 26%
407 0.9% 22%
408 4% 21%
409 0.8% 17%
410 0.8% 16%
411 2% 15%
412 0.6% 14%
413 0.1% 13%
414 0.3% 13%
415 3% 13%
416 1.4% 10%
417 3% 8%
418 0.5% 5%
419 0.5% 5%
420 0.5% 4%
421 1.4% 4%
422 0.1% 2%
423 0.2% 2%
424 1.3% 2%
425 0.2% 0.9%
426 0.1% 0.8%
427 0% 0.7%
428 0.1% 0.6%
429 0.1% 0.5%
430 0.1% 0.4%
431 0.2% 0.4%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0.1%
434 0.1% 0.1%
435 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
326 0% 100%
327 0.1% 99.9%
328 0% 99.8%
329 0.1% 99.8%
330 0% 99.7%
331 0.1% 99.7%
332 0.1% 99.6%
333 0.1% 99.5%
334 0.1% 99.4%
335 0.1% 99.3%
336 0.5% 99.2%
337 0.4% 98.7%
338 0.4% 98%
339 0.3% 98%
340 0.1% 98%
341 0.9% 98%
342 0.5% 97%
343 0.2% 96%
344 0.3% 96%
345 0.7% 96%
346 2% 95%
347 0.4% 92%
348 0.5% 92%
349 0.2% 92%
350 2% 91%
351 2% 90%
352 1.2% 88%
353 0.7% 87%
354 0.6% 86%
355 1.3% 86%
356 1.1% 84%
357 1.0% 83%
358 3% 82%
359 3% 79%
360 2% 76%
361 4% 74%
362 0.4% 70%
363 4% 70%
364 3% 66%
365 5% 63%
366 4% 58%
367 5% 53%
368 5% 48%
369 4% 43%
370 3% 39%
371 2% 36%
372 4% 34%
373 4% 29%
374 1.2% 25%
375 2% 24%
376 0.9% 22%
377 5% 21%
378 3% 16%
379 2% 13%
380 3% 11%
381 1.2% 8%
382 0.2% 7%
383 2% 7%
384 0.4% 5%
385 0.6% 5%
386 0.4% 4%
387 1.3% 4%
388 0.9% 2%
389 0.4% 1.5%
390 0.1% 1.0%
391 0.1% 0.9%
392 0.1% 0.8%
393 0.2% 0.7%
394 0.2% 0.6%
395 0% 0.4%
396 0.1% 0.3%
397 0.1% 0.2%
398 0% 0.2%
399 0.1% 0.2%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0.1% 99.9%
322 0.1% 99.8%
323 0.1% 99.7%
324 0% 99.7%
325 0.1% 99.6%
326 0.2% 99.6%
327 0.2% 99.4%
328 0.3% 99.3%
329 0.2% 99.0%
330 0.2% 98.8%
331 0.6% 98.6%
332 1.0% 98%
333 0.1% 97%
334 0.1% 97%
335 0.2% 97%
336 0% 97%
337 0.2% 97%
338 1.0% 96%
339 0.8% 95%
340 0.5% 95%
341 1.2% 94%
342 3% 93%
343 0.5% 90%
344 0.7% 89%
345 0.4% 89%
346 0.2% 88%
347 0.7% 88%
348 1.1% 87%
349 2% 86%
350 0.9% 84%
351 4% 83%
352 3% 79%
353 1.2% 76%
354 6% 75%
355 5% 68%
356 4% 64%
357 3% 59%
358 8% 56%
359 3% 49%
360 3% 46%
361 5% 42%
362 2% 37%
363 0.7% 35%
364 3% 35%
365 1.3% 31%
366 0.9% 30%
367 3% 29%
368 3% 27%
369 7% 23%
370 4% 16%
371 0.5% 13%
372 0.6% 12%
373 0.4% 12%
374 2% 11%
375 2% 9%
376 0.2% 7%
377 2% 7%
378 0.7% 5%
379 2% 4%
380 0.8% 3%
381 0% 2%
382 0.3% 2%
383 0.2% 1.3%
384 0.1% 1.1%
385 0.3% 1.0%
386 0.1% 0.8%
387 0% 0.7%
388 0.4% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.2%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0% 100%
318 0.1% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.8%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.1% 99.6%
323 0.2% 99.6%
324 0.2% 99.4%
325 0.3% 99.2%
326 0.1% 98.9%
327 0.4% 98.7%
328 0.4% 98%
329 0.7% 98%
330 0.1% 97%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.2% 97%
333 0.3% 97%
334 0.2% 96%
335 0.9% 96%
336 1.3% 95%
337 0.6% 94%
338 0.6% 93%
339 3% 93%
340 0.3% 90%
341 0.4% 89%
342 1.0% 89%
343 0.3% 88%
344 0.9% 88%
345 1.3% 87%
346 1.1% 85%
347 3% 84%
348 4% 81%
349 4% 77%
350 2% 73%
351 2% 72%
352 7% 70%
353 2% 63%
354 4% 61%
355 6% 57%
356 6% 52%
357 3% 46%
358 5% 42%
359 3% 37%
360 3% 35%
361 2% 31%
362 0.6% 30%
363 1.1% 29%
364 3% 28%
365 5% 25%
366 7% 20%
367 0.5% 14%
368 0.6% 13%
369 2% 12%
370 2% 11%
371 0.7% 8%
372 2% 8%
373 1.2% 6%
374 0.2% 5%
375 2% 5%
376 2% 3%
377 0.1% 2%
378 0.4% 2%
379 0.1% 1.2%
380 0.2% 1.1%
381 0.2% 0.9%
382 0.1% 0.7%
383 0.2% 0.6%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.3%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
242 0% 100%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0.1% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.2% 99.7%
250 0.1% 99.4%
251 0.2% 99.3%
252 0.2% 99.1%
253 0.1% 98.9%
254 0.4% 98.8%
255 0.1% 98%
256 2% 98%
257 2% 97%
258 0.2% 95%
259 1.2% 95%
260 2% 94%
261 0.7% 92%
262 2% 92%
263 2% 89%
264 0.7% 88%
265 0.5% 87%
266 7% 86%
267 5% 80%
268 3% 75%
269 1.1% 72%
270 0.6% 71%
271 2% 70%
272 3% 69%
273 3% 65%
274 5% 63%
275 3% 58%
276 6% 54%
277 6% 48%
278 4% 43%
279 2% 39%
280 7% 37%
281 2% 30%
282 2% 28%
283 4% 27%
284 4% 23%
285 3% 19%
286 1.1% 16%
287 1.3% 15%
288 0.9% 13%
289 0.3% 12%
290 1.0% 12%
291 0.4% 11%
292 0.3% 11%
293 3% 10%
294 0.6% 7%
295 0.6% 7%
296 1.3% 6%
297 0.9% 5%
298 0.2% 4%
299 0.3% 4%
300 0.2% 3%
301 0.3% 3%
302 0.1% 3%
303 0.7% 3%
304 0.4% 2%
305 0.4% 2%
306 0.1% 1.3%
307 0.3% 1.1%
308 0.2% 0.8%
309 0.2% 0.6%
310 0.1% 0.4%
311 0.1% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.2%
314 0.1% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.8%
244 0.4% 99.8%
245 0% 99.4%
246 0.1% 99.3%
247 0.3% 99.2%
248 0.1% 99.0%
249 0.2% 98.9%
250 0.3% 98.7%
251 0% 98%
252 0.8% 98%
253 2% 97%
254 0.7% 96%
255 2% 95%
256 0.2% 93%
257 2% 93%
258 2% 91%
259 0.4% 89%
260 0.6% 88%
261 0.4% 88%
262 4% 87%
263 7% 84%
264 3% 77%
265 3% 73%
266 0.9% 71%
267 1.3% 70%
268 3% 69%
269 0.7% 65%
270 2% 65%
271 5% 63%
272 3% 58%
273 3% 54%
274 8% 51%
275 3% 44%
276 4% 41%
277 5% 36%
278 6% 32%
279 1.2% 25%
280 3% 24%
281 4% 21%
282 0.9% 17%
283 2% 16%
284 1.1% 14%
285 0.7% 13%
286 0.2% 12%
287 0.4% 12%
288 0.7% 11%
289 0.5% 11%
290 3% 10%
291 1.2% 7%
292 0.5% 6%
293 0.8% 5%
294 1.0% 5%
295 0.2% 4%
296 0% 3%
297 0.2% 3%
298 0.1% 3%
299 0.1% 3%
300 1.0% 3%
301 0.6% 2%
302 0.2% 1.4%
303 0.2% 1.2%
304 0.3% 1.0%
305 0.2% 0.7%
306 0.2% 0.6%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0% 0.4%
309 0.1% 0.3%
310 0.1% 0.3%
311 0.1% 0.2%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0.1% 99.9%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0% 99.7%
238 0.2% 99.6%
239 0.2% 99.4%
240 0.1% 99.3%
241 0.1% 99.2%
242 0.1% 99.1%
243 0.4% 99.0%
244 0.9% 98.5%
245 1.3% 98%
246 0.4% 96%
247 0.6% 96%
248 0.4% 95%
249 2% 95%
250 0.2% 93%
251 1.2% 93%
252 3% 92%
253 2% 89%
254 3% 87%
255 5% 84%
256 0.9% 79%
257 2% 78%
258 1.2% 76%
259 4% 75%
260 5% 71%
261 2% 66%
262 3% 64%
263 4% 61%
264 5% 57%
265 5% 52%
266 4% 47%
267 5% 42%
268 3% 37%
269 4% 34%
270 0.4% 30%
271 4% 30%
272 2% 26%
273 3% 24%
274 3% 21%
275 1.0% 18%
276 1.1% 17%
277 1.3% 16%
278 0.6% 14%
279 0.7% 14%
280 1.2% 13%
281 2% 12%
282 2% 10%
283 0.2% 9%
284 0.5% 8%
285 0.4% 8%
286 2% 8%
287 0.7% 5%
288 0.3% 4%
289 0.2% 4%
290 0.5% 4%
291 0.9% 3%
292 0.1% 2%
293 0.3% 2%
294 0.4% 2%
295 0.4% 2%
296 0.5% 1.3%
297 0.1% 0.8%
298 0.1% 0.7%
299 0.1% 0.6%
300 0.1% 0.5%
301 0.1% 0.4%
302 0% 0.3%
303 0.1% 0.3%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0.1% 0.2%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0.1% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.7%
233 0.1% 99.6%
234 0.1% 99.5%
235 0.1% 99.4%
236 0.1% 99.4%
237 0.1% 99.2%
238 0.3% 99.1%
239 0.3% 98.8%
240 0.9% 98%
241 1.3% 98%
242 0.1% 96%
243 0.7% 96%
244 0.9% 96%
245 0.2% 95%
246 1.5% 94%
247 1.1% 93%
248 3% 92%
249 2% 89%
250 0.6% 86%
251 6% 86%
252 2% 80%
253 2% 78%
254 0.2% 76%
255 2% 76%
256 3% 74%
257 4% 71%
258 3% 66%
259 3% 64%
260 8% 60%
261 1.3% 52%
262 4% 51%
263 5% 47%
264 3% 42%
265 4% 39%
266 1.2% 35%
267 3% 34%
268 4% 31%
269 5% 26%
270 1.0% 21%
271 3% 20%
272 1.4% 17%
273 0.7% 16%
274 0.8% 15%
275 0.5% 14%
276 2% 14%
277 3% 12%
278 0.8% 10%
279 0.4% 9%
280 0.6% 8%
281 0.3% 8%
282 0.7% 7%
283 2% 7%
284 0.2% 5%
285 0.4% 4%
286 0.3% 4%
287 0.6% 4%
288 0.6% 3%
289 0.1% 2%
290 0.5% 2%
291 0.2% 2%
292 0.1% 2%
293 0.4% 1.4%
294 0.1% 1.0%
295 0.3% 0.9%
296 0.2% 0.5%
297 0% 0.4%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0.1% 0.2%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
198 0.1% 100%
199 0% 99.9%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0.2% 99.9%
202 0.1% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.6%
204 0.1% 99.5%
205 0% 99.4%
206 0.1% 99.3%
207 0.2% 99.2%
208 1.3% 99.1%
209 0.2% 98%
210 0.1% 98%
211 1.4% 98%
212 0.5% 96%
213 0.5% 96%
214 0.5% 95%
215 3% 95%
216 1.4% 92%
217 3% 90%
218 0.3% 87%
219 0.1% 87%
220 0.6% 87%
221 2% 86%
222 0.8% 85%
223 0.8% 84%
224 4% 83%
225 1.0% 79%
226 4% 78%
227 3% 74%
228 2% 70%
229 3% 69%
230 0.9% 66%
231 3% 65%
232 4% 63%
233 8% 58%
234 0.6% 51%
235 6% 50%
236 2% 44%
237 0.5% 43%
238 4% 42%
239 3% 38%
240 0.8% 35%
241 1.3% 35%
242 0.5% 33%
243 1.3% 33%
244 1.0% 32%
245 2% 31%
246 0.4% 28%
247 1.5% 28%
248 0.8% 26%
249 0.7% 26%
250 0.8% 25%
251 1.4% 24%
252 0.5% 23%
253 1.1% 22%
254 0.2% 21%
255 0.5% 21%
256 0.5% 20%
257 0.8% 20%
258 0.5% 19%
259 2% 18%
260 0.5% 16%
261 1.1% 16%
262 0.3% 14%
263 0.2% 14%
264 0.6% 14%
265 0.9% 13%
266 0.9% 12%
267 1.3% 12%
268 0.5% 10%
269 1.5% 10%
270 0.2% 8%
271 1.2% 8%
272 0.7% 7%
273 0.8% 6%
274 0.4% 5%
275 0.5% 5%
276 0.1% 4%
277 0.2% 4%
278 0.2% 4%
279 0.1% 4%
280 0.3% 4%
281 0.1% 3%
282 0% 3%
283 0.3% 3%
284 0% 3%
285 0.1% 3%
286 0.3% 3%
287 0.5% 2%
288 0.1% 2%
289 0.4% 2%
290 0.4% 1.5%
291 0% 1.0%
292 0% 1.0%
293 0% 1.0%
294 0% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.9%
296 0.2% 0.8%
297 0.2% 0.5%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0.1% 0.3%
300 0.1% 0.2%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
194 0.1% 100%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.3% 99.9%
197 0% 99.6%
198 0% 99.6%
199 0% 99.5%
200 0% 99.5%
201 0% 99.4%
202 0.1% 99.4%
203 0.2% 99.3%
204 0.2% 99.1%
205 1.3% 98.9%
206 1.2% 98%
207 0.5% 96%
208 0.3% 96%
209 0.1% 96%
210 0.1% 96%
211 1.2% 95%
212 4% 94%
213 0.6% 91%
214 3% 90%
215 0.5% 87%
216 1.4% 87%
217 0.3% 85%
218 0.3% 85%
219 0.8% 85%
220 4% 84%
221 2% 80%
222 2% 78%
223 4% 76%
224 0.2% 71%
225 0.8% 71%
226 4% 70%
227 0.7% 66%
228 1.0% 65%
229 7% 64%
230 2% 57%
231 9% 56%
232 3% 47%
233 3% 44%
234 2% 41%
235 0.7% 40%
236 4% 39%
237 1.3% 35%
238 1.0% 34%
239 1.0% 33%
240 0.5% 32%
241 0.7% 31%
242 3% 30%
243 1.4% 28%
244 0.5% 26%
245 0.4% 26%
246 0.8% 25%
247 1.4% 25%
248 0.6% 23%
249 0.7% 23%
250 0.8% 22%
251 0.3% 21%
252 0.3% 21%
253 1.0% 20%
254 2% 19%
255 0.3% 18%
256 2% 17%
257 0.7% 16%
258 1.0% 15%
259 0.2% 14%
260 0.8% 14%
261 0.5% 13%
262 0.6% 13%
263 0.7% 12%
264 1.4% 11%
265 0.3% 10%
266 1.4% 10%
267 0.5% 8%
268 0.1% 8%
269 2% 8%
270 0.3% 6%
271 0.1% 5%
272 0.3% 5%
273 0.4% 5%
274 0.2% 5%
275 0.6% 4%
276 0.4% 4%
277 0.1% 3%
278 0% 3%
279 0.3% 3%
280 0.1% 3%
281 0.1% 3%
282 0% 3%
283 0.7% 3%
284 0.4% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.1% 1.5%
287 0% 1.4%
288 0.4% 1.4%
289 0% 1.0%
290 0% 1.0%
291 0% 0.9%
292 0.1% 0.9%
293 0.3% 0.8%
294 0.2% 0.6%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0.1% 0.2%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0.1% 0.1%
302 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
189 0% 100%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0% 99.9%
192 0% 99.9%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0.2% 99.9%
195 0.3% 99.7%
196 0.1% 99.5%
197 0% 99.3%
198 0% 99.3%
199 0.1% 99.2%
200 0.1% 99.1%
201 1.2% 99.0%
202 0.7% 98%
203 0.7% 97%
204 0.2% 96%
205 1.4% 96%
206 0.2% 95%
207 0.3% 95%
208 0.7% 94%
209 6% 94%
210 2% 88%
211 5% 86%
212 0.6% 81%
213 4% 81%
214 0.3% 77%
215 0.5% 77%
216 0.2% 76%
217 0.6% 76%
218 3% 75%
219 3% 73%
220 3% 69%
221 9% 67%
222 6% 57%
223 1.1% 52%
224 2% 51%
225 3% 49%
226 6% 46%
227 2% 40%
228 1.3% 38%
229 3% 36%
230 0.8% 33%
231 0.4% 33%
232 1.0% 32%
233 0.8% 31%
234 0.7% 30%
235 0.8% 30%
236 1.0% 29%
237 1.3% 28%
238 3% 27%
239 0.8% 23%
240 0.8% 23%
241 0.3% 22%
242 0.4% 22%
243 0.5% 21%
244 0.5% 21%
245 2% 20%
246 1.2% 18%
247 0.9% 17%
248 1.0% 16%
249 0.4% 15%
250 0.7% 15%
251 2% 14%
252 0.9% 12%
253 0.4% 11%
254 0.4% 11%
255 2% 10%
256 0.3% 9%
257 2% 8%
258 0.6% 7%
259 0.5% 6%
260 0.3% 6%
261 0.2% 5%
262 0.2% 5%
263 0.6% 5%
264 0.2% 4%
265 0.2% 4%
266 0.4% 4%
267 0.3% 4%
268 0% 3%
269 0.2% 3%
270 0.1% 3%
271 0.5% 3%
272 0.1% 2%
273 0.3% 2%
274 0.5% 2%
275 0% 2%
276 0% 2%
277 0.4% 2%
278 0.1% 1.1%
279 0.1% 1.0%
280 0.3% 0.9%
281 0.1% 0.7%
282 0% 0.6%
283 0% 0.6%
284 0% 0.5%
285 0.3% 0.5%
286 0.1% 0.2%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
185 0% 100%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0.3% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.5%
192 0.1% 99.4%
193 0.1% 99.4%
194 0.1% 99.3%
195 0.1% 99.2%
196 0.2% 99.2%
197 0.5% 99.0%
198 1.3% 98.6%
199 0.5% 97%
200 1.4% 97%
201 0.3% 95%
202 0.2% 95%
203 0.2% 95%
204 0.3% 95%
205 0.9% 94%
206 8% 93%
207 4% 86%
208 0.6% 82%
209 4% 81%
210 0.7% 77%
211 0.3% 77%
212 0.3% 76%
213 0.4% 76%
214 0.7% 76%
215 3% 75%
216 0.8% 72%
217 6% 71%
218 6% 65%
219 3% 58%
220 5% 56%
221 2% 51%
222 4% 48%
223 4% 45%
224 4% 41%
225 2% 37%
226 1.4% 34%
227 0.3% 33%
228 0.9% 33%
229 0.6% 32%
230 0.9% 31%
231 0.5% 30%
232 2% 30%
233 1.2% 28%
234 0.5% 26%
235 3% 26%
236 0.6% 23%
237 0.8% 22%
238 0.3% 21%
239 0.2% 21%
240 0.7% 21%
241 0.7% 20%
242 2% 20%
243 1.2% 18%
244 1.3% 17%
245 0.7% 15%
246 0.5% 15%
247 0.2% 14%
248 3% 14%
249 0.4% 11%
250 0.2% 11%
251 0.3% 11%
252 2% 11%
253 0.7% 9%
254 0.4% 8%
255 1.3% 8%
256 0.2% 6%
257 0.5% 6%
258 1.2% 6%
259 0.3% 5%
260 0.2% 4%
261 0.1% 4%
262 0.2% 4%
263 0.3% 4%
264 0.3% 3%
265 0.1% 3%
266 0.1% 3%
267 0.4% 3%
268 0% 2%
269 0.2% 2%
270 0.3% 2%
271 0.1% 2%
272 0.7% 2%
273 0% 1.1%
274 0.1% 1.1%
275 0% 1.0%
276 0.1% 1.0%
277 0.3% 0.9%
278 0% 0.7%
279 0% 0.6%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0% 0.5%
282 0.3% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.2%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations