Opinion Poll by ICM for Sun on Sunday, 31 May–2 June May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 45.0% 43.0–46.2% 42.5–46.7% 42.1–47.1% 41.4–47.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 35.2% 33.4–36.5% 33.0–36.9% 32.6–37.3% 31.9–38.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.3% 7.4–9.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.8% 3.4–6.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.5% 2.1–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 345 331–355 325–360 322–365 318–370
Labour Party 232 230 217–249 213–254 209–260 202–273
Liberal Democrats 8 8 4–14 3–15 3–17 2–19
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 48 32–55 26–55 20–55 9–56
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0.1% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.7%
317 0.1% 99.6%
318 0.2% 99.6%
319 0.3% 99.4%
320 0.3% 99.1%
321 0.7% 98.8%
322 1.2% 98%
323 0.6% 97%
324 0.8% 96%
325 0.5% 95%
326 0.8% 95%
327 1.2% 94%
328 1.1% 93%
329 0.3% 92%
330 1.1% 91%
331 0.9% 90%
332 0.8% 89%
333 1.4% 89%
334 0.6% 87%
335 4% 87%
336 2% 83%
337 3% 81%
338 6% 78%
339 4% 72%
340 2% 68%
341 2% 66%
342 5% 63%
343 3% 58%
344 2% 55%
345 3% 53%
346 0.9% 50%
347 2% 49%
348 3% 46%
349 3% 43%
350 4% 40%
351 7% 35%
352 10% 29%
353 3% 19%
354 4% 16%
355 2% 12%
356 1.4% 10%
357 0.4% 8%
358 0.7% 8%
359 2% 7%
360 0.7% 6%
361 0.3% 5%
362 0.8% 5%
363 0.5% 4%
364 0.4% 3%
365 0.4% 3%
366 0.7% 2%
367 0.6% 2%
368 0.2% 1.0%
369 0.1% 0.9%
370 0.3% 0.8%
371 0.1% 0.5%
372 0% 0.4%
373 0.1% 0.4%
374 0% 0.3%
375 0% 0.3%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
194 0% 100%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0.1% 99.7%
201 0% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.5%
204 0.3% 99.4%
205 0.2% 99.1%
206 0.7% 98.8%
207 0.3% 98%
208 0.1% 98%
209 0.3% 98%
210 0.3% 97%
211 0.5% 97%
212 1.2% 97%
213 0.8% 95%
214 0.8% 95%
215 0.6% 94%
216 0.7% 93%
217 3% 92%
218 1.5% 89%
219 2% 88%
220 2% 85%
221 3% 83%
222 6% 80%
223 4% 74%
224 3% 70%
225 5% 67%
226 3% 62%
227 2% 58%
228 3% 56%
229 3% 53%
230 3% 50%
231 3% 48%
232 1.2% 44%
233 4% 43%
234 3% 39%
235 1.1% 36%
236 2% 35%
237 3% 33%
238 4% 31%
239 4% 27%
240 4% 23%
241 0.7% 19%
242 1.3% 18%
243 3% 17%
244 1.0% 14%
245 2% 13%
246 0.5% 12%
247 0.7% 11%
248 0.6% 11%
249 0.8% 10%
250 1.1% 9%
251 1.0% 8%
252 0.5% 7%
253 1.3% 7%
254 0.6% 5%
255 0.5% 5%
256 0.6% 4%
257 0.5% 4%
258 0.1% 3%
259 0.3% 3%
260 0.4% 3%
261 0.4% 2%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.3% 2%
264 0.1% 1.5%
265 0.1% 1.4%
266 0% 1.3%
267 0% 1.3%
268 0.3% 1.2%
269 0.2% 1.0%
270 0.1% 0.8%
271 0% 0.7%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.6%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.1% 100%
2 1.4% 99.9%
3 4% 98%
4 5% 95%
5 10% 90%
6 11% 79%
7 17% 68%
8 10% 51%
9 5% 42%
10 7% 37%
11 7% 30%
12 5% 22%
13 4% 17%
14 7% 13%
15 3% 7%
16 1.5% 4%
17 1.3% 3%
18 0.6% 1.3%
19 0.4% 0.7%
20 0% 0.3%
21 0.1% 0.2%
22 0% 0.1%
23 0% 0.1%
24 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0.1% 100%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0.1% 99.8%
7 0% 99.8%
8 0.2% 99.7%
9 0.1% 99.6%
10 0.2% 99.5%
11 0% 99.3%
12 0% 99.3%
13 0.2% 99.2%
14 0.1% 99.1%
15 0.3% 98.9%
16 0.3% 98.6%
17 0.2% 98%
18 0.4% 98%
19 0.2% 98%
20 0.3% 98%
21 0.3% 97%
22 0.2% 97%
23 0.1% 97%
24 0.5% 97%
25 0.4% 96%
26 1.0% 96%
27 1.0% 95%
28 0.4% 94%
29 0.3% 94%
30 2% 93%
31 0.7% 91%
32 1.1% 90%
33 0.5% 89%
34 0.5% 89%
35 0.8% 88%
36 0.4% 87%
37 0.2% 87%
38 2% 87%
39 1.3% 85%
40 0.9% 84%
41 3% 83%
42 3% 79%
43 1.4% 77%
44 3% 75%
45 3% 72%
46 5% 68%
47 8% 63%
48 8% 55%
49 4% 47%
50 4% 43%
51 5% 39%
52 8% 34%
53 4% 27%
54 9% 22%
55 12% 14%
56 2% 2%
57 0.2% 0.3%
58 0% 0.1%
59 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 76% 100%
1 24% 24%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 59% 100%
1 9% 41%
2 6% 32%
3 22% 26%
4 2% 4%
5 2% 2%
6 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 393 374–407 368–412 359–415 347–422
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 393 373–405 367–409 358–414 346–421
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 354 339–367 334–371 329–374 326–381
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 348 333–357 326–362 322–366 319–373
Conservative Party 331 345 331–355 325–360 322–365 318–370
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 287 277–301 272–307 266–310 261–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 284 275–299 270–306 265–310 259–313
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 277 265–292 261–298 258–303 251–305
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 276 264–291 260–297 257–302 250–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 239 227–259 222–265 217–274 211–285
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 238 225–258 220–264 217–273 210–284
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 231 219–250 215–255 210–261 204–274
Labour Party 232 230 217–249 213–254 209–260 202–273

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
334 0% 100%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0% 99.7%
344 0% 99.7%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.1% 99.5%
348 0.2% 99.5%
349 0.1% 99.3%
350 0.1% 99.2%
351 0.2% 99.1%
352 0% 98.9%
353 0.1% 98.8%
354 0.1% 98.8%
355 0.2% 98.7%
356 0.3% 98.6%
357 0.1% 98%
358 0.1% 98%
359 0.7% 98%
360 0.1% 97%
361 0.4% 97%
362 0.3% 97%
363 0.3% 97%
364 0.4% 96%
365 0.2% 96%
366 0.1% 96%
367 0.3% 96%
368 1.3% 95%
369 1.3% 94%
370 0.5% 93%
371 0.7% 92%
372 0.5% 91%
373 0.5% 91%
374 0.9% 90%
375 0.8% 90%
376 0.8% 89%
377 1.1% 88%
378 1.0% 87%
379 1.1% 86%
380 3% 85%
381 0.6% 82%
382 3% 82%
383 2% 78%
384 3% 77%
385 3% 74%
386 4% 71%
387 3% 67%
388 0.9% 64%
389 4% 63%
390 2% 59%
391 1.4% 57%
392 2% 56%
393 4% 54%
394 2% 50%
395 2% 48%
396 3% 46%
397 2% 43%
398 3% 40%
399 4% 38%
400 6% 34%
401 2% 28%
402 3% 26%
403 5% 24%
404 2% 18%
405 4% 16%
406 1.2% 12%
407 2% 11%
408 2% 8%
409 0.6% 7%
410 0.6% 6%
411 0.4% 5%
412 1.3% 5%
413 0.6% 4%
414 0.7% 3%
415 0.3% 3%
416 0.2% 2%
417 0.2% 2%
418 0.5% 2%
419 0.3% 1.4%
420 0.3% 1.1%
421 0.2% 0.8%
422 0.1% 0.6%
423 0.1% 0.4%
424 0% 0.3%
425 0.1% 0.3%
426 0% 0.2%
427 0.1% 0.2%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.8%
341 0% 99.8%
342 0.1% 99.8%
343 0% 99.7%
344 0% 99.7%
345 0.1% 99.6%
346 0.1% 99.6%
347 0.2% 99.5%
348 0.1% 99.3%
349 0.1% 99.2%
350 0% 99.1%
351 0.2% 99.0%
352 0.1% 98.8%
353 0.2% 98.8%
354 0% 98.6%
355 0.2% 98.5%
356 0.3% 98%
357 0% 98%
358 0.7% 98%
359 0.2% 97%
360 0.2% 97%
361 0.4% 97%
362 0.3% 96%
363 0.2% 96%
364 0.2% 96%
365 0.3% 96%
366 0.3% 95%
367 0.5% 95%
368 1.4% 95%
369 1.3% 93%
370 0.3% 92%
371 1.0% 92%
372 0.5% 91%
373 0.5% 90%
374 0.8% 90%
375 1.3% 89%
376 0.6% 88%
377 0.9% 87%
378 1.0% 86%
379 2% 85%
380 2% 83%
381 2% 81%
382 3% 79%
383 3% 76%
384 2% 73%
385 3% 72%
386 6% 69%
387 1.1% 63%
388 0.9% 61%
389 4% 60%
390 2% 57%
391 1.1% 55%
392 2% 54%
393 5% 52%
394 2% 47%
395 3% 45%
396 4% 42%
397 0.9% 38%
398 4% 38%
399 3% 34%
400 6% 31%
401 2% 25%
402 3% 22%
403 4% 19%
404 3% 15%
405 3% 13%
406 1.4% 9%
407 1.3% 8%
408 0.6% 7%
409 1.0% 6%
410 0.6% 5%
411 0.4% 4%
412 0.8% 4%
413 0.3% 3%
414 0.5% 3%
415 0.6% 2%
416 0.3% 2%
417 0.2% 1.4%
418 0.1% 1.2%
419 0.2% 1.1%
420 0.3% 0.9%
421 0.2% 0.6%
422 0.1% 0.4%
423 0.1% 0.3%
424 0% 0.2%
425 0% 0.2%
426 0% 0.2%
427 0.1% 0.2%
428 0% 0.1%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.9%
325 0.2% 99.8%
326 0.1% 99.6%
327 0.6% 99.5%
328 1.1% 98.9%
329 0.4% 98%
330 0.5% 97%
331 0.3% 97%
332 0.8% 96%
333 0.5% 96%
334 0.5% 95%
335 1.3% 95%
336 0.6% 93%
337 0.7% 93%
338 1.4% 92%
339 0.7% 91%
340 1.1% 90%
341 1.1% 89%
342 3% 88%
343 2% 85%
344 4% 83%
345 3% 79%
346 6% 77%
347 4% 71%
348 3% 68%
349 1.1% 64%
350 2% 63%
351 2% 62%
352 4% 59%
353 2% 55%
354 3% 53%
355 3% 50%
356 2% 46%
357 4% 44%
358 5% 40%
359 7% 35%
360 3% 28%
361 4% 25%
362 3% 21%
363 4% 17%
364 2% 14%
365 1.0% 12%
366 0.7% 11%
367 1.5% 11%
368 2% 9%
369 0.9% 7%
370 0.8% 6%
371 1.1% 5%
372 0.5% 4%
373 1.0% 4%
374 0.9% 3%
375 0.4% 2%
376 0.2% 2%
377 0.3% 1.3%
378 0.3% 1.0%
379 0.1% 0.7%
380 0.1% 0.6%
381 0% 0.5%
382 0.1% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.4%
384 0.1% 0.3%
385 0.1% 0.2%
386 0% 0.2%
387 0% 0.2%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.9%
317 0.1% 99.8%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.3% 99.6%
320 0.1% 99.3%
321 0.5% 99.2%
322 2% 98.7%
323 0.3% 97%
324 0.9% 97%
325 0.3% 96%
326 0.7% 96%
327 0.4% 95%
328 1.5% 94%
329 0.2% 93%
330 0.6% 93%
331 1.0% 92%
332 1.0% 91%
333 1.3% 90%
334 0.8% 89%
335 2% 88%
336 3% 86%
337 3% 83%
338 6% 80%
339 4% 74%
340 2% 69%
341 1.2% 68%
342 5% 66%
343 4% 62%
344 3% 58%
345 1.2% 55%
346 2% 54%
347 0.8% 52%
348 5% 52%
349 2% 46%
350 5% 44%
351 6% 39%
352 8% 34%
353 4% 25%
354 5% 22%
355 3% 17%
356 2% 14%
357 2% 11%
358 0.9% 9%
359 2% 8%
360 0.7% 6%
361 0.4% 6%
362 1.1% 5%
363 0.6% 4%
364 0.4% 3%
365 0.4% 3%
366 0.2% 3%
367 0.6% 2%
368 0.2% 2%
369 0.6% 2%
370 0.4% 1.1%
371 0.1% 0.7%
372 0.1% 0.6%
373 0.1% 0.5%
374 0% 0.4%
375 0% 0.3%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
313 0% 100%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0.1% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.7%
317 0.1% 99.6%
318 0.2% 99.6%
319 0.3% 99.4%
320 0.3% 99.1%
321 0.7% 98.8%
322 1.2% 98%
323 0.6% 97%
324 0.8% 96%
325 0.5% 95%
326 0.8% 95%
327 1.2% 94%
328 1.1% 93%
329 0.3% 92%
330 1.1% 91%
331 0.9% 90%
332 0.8% 89%
333 1.4% 89%
334 0.6% 87%
335 4% 87%
336 2% 83%
337 3% 81%
338 6% 78%
339 4% 72%
340 2% 68%
341 2% 66%
342 5% 63%
343 3% 58%
344 2% 55%
345 3% 53%
346 0.9% 50%
347 2% 49%
348 3% 46%
349 3% 43%
350 4% 40%
351 7% 35%
352 10% 29%
353 3% 19%
354 4% 16%
355 2% 12%
356 1.4% 10%
357 0.4% 8%
358 0.7% 8%
359 2% 7%
360 0.7% 6%
361 0.3% 5%
362 0.8% 5%
363 0.5% 4%
364 0.4% 3%
365 0.4% 3%
366 0.7% 2%
367 0.6% 2%
368 0.2% 1.0%
369 0.1% 0.9%
370 0.3% 0.8%
371 0.1% 0.5%
372 0% 0.4%
373 0.1% 0.4%
374 0% 0.3%
375 0% 0.3%
376 0.1% 0.3%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
251 0% 100%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0.1% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.8%
257 0% 99.7%
258 0.1% 99.7%
259 0% 99.6%
260 0% 99.6%
261 0.1% 99.5%
262 0.3% 99.5%
263 0.1% 99.2%
264 0.5% 99.1%
265 0.4% 98.6%
266 0.7% 98%
267 0.6% 97%
268 0.5% 97%
269 0.2% 96%
270 0.8% 96%
271 0.4% 95%
272 1.2% 95%
273 1.3% 94%
274 0.5% 93%
275 1.0% 92%
276 1.0% 91%
277 3% 90%
278 4% 87%
279 5% 83%
280 8% 78%
281 6% 70%
282 4% 64%
283 4% 59%
284 3% 56%
285 2% 53%
286 0.8% 51%
287 3% 50%
288 2% 47%
289 3% 44%
290 5% 41%
291 2% 36%
292 3% 34%
293 4% 31%
294 6% 27%
295 3% 21%
296 2% 19%
297 3% 16%
298 1.1% 13%
299 1.0% 12%
300 0.9% 11%
301 1.0% 10%
302 0.9% 9%
303 0.4% 8%
304 1.0% 8%
305 1.3% 7%
306 0.8% 6%
307 0.4% 5%
308 0.9% 5%
309 0.7% 4%
310 1.2% 3%
311 0.6% 2%
312 0.3% 1.2%
313 0.3% 0.9%
314 0.2% 0.6%
315 0.1% 0.4%
316 0.1% 0.4%
317 0.1% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
251 0% 100%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0.1% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.8%
257 0% 99.7%
258 0.1% 99.6%
259 0.1% 99.5%
260 0% 99.4%
261 0.2% 99.4%
262 0.4% 99.2%
263 0.5% 98.8%
264 0.4% 98%
265 0.4% 98%
266 0.2% 97%
267 0.6% 97%
268 0.6% 97%
269 0.4% 96%
270 1.0% 96%
271 0.5% 95%
272 1.3% 94%
273 2% 93%
274 1.1% 91%
275 2% 90%
276 2% 88%
277 5% 86%
278 4% 81%
279 5% 78%
280 7% 73%
281 6% 66%
282 5% 60%
283 2% 55%
284 5% 53%
285 0.7% 48%
286 2% 47%
287 1.2% 45%
288 3% 44%
289 4% 41%
290 4% 38%
291 1.4% 33%
292 3% 32%
293 3% 29%
294 5% 26%
295 4% 20%
296 3% 16%
297 2% 14%
298 0.9% 12%
299 1.2% 11%
300 1.1% 10%
301 0.7% 9%
302 0.6% 8%
303 0.3% 7%
304 1.5% 7%
305 0.4% 6%
306 0.7% 5%
307 0.3% 4%
308 1.0% 4%
309 0.5% 3%
310 1.4% 3%
311 0.4% 1.2%
312 0.1% 0.8%
313 0.3% 0.7%
314 0.1% 0.4%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0.1% 0.2%
317 0% 0.1%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
240 0% 100%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.7%
250 0.1% 99.6%
251 0.1% 99.5%
252 0.1% 99.4%
253 0.2% 99.4%
254 0.2% 99.1%
255 0.3% 98.9%
256 0.3% 98.6%
257 0.7% 98%
258 1.0% 98%
259 0.6% 97%
260 0.6% 96%
261 1.3% 95%
262 0.8% 94%
263 2% 93%
264 1.1% 92%
265 1.5% 91%
266 0.7% 89%
267 1.2% 88%
268 2% 87%
269 3% 86%
270 4% 82%
271 4% 78%
272 5% 75%
273 6% 70%
274 5% 64%
275 3% 59%
276 3% 55%
277 4% 53%
278 2% 49%
279 3% 47%
280 3% 44%
281 2% 40%
282 2% 38%
283 2% 37%
284 2% 34%
285 4% 32%
286 7% 29%
287 2% 22%
288 3% 20%
289 2% 17%
290 3% 15%
291 1.4% 12%
292 0.7% 11%
293 0.6% 10%
294 2% 9%
295 0.6% 8%
296 0.5% 7%
297 1.5% 7%
298 0.4% 5%
299 0.4% 5%
300 0.8% 4%
301 0.3% 3%
302 0.5% 3%
303 0.5% 3%
304 1.2% 2%
305 0.4% 0.9%
306 0.1% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0% 99.9%
244 0% 99.8%
245 0% 99.8%
246 0% 99.8%
247 0.1% 99.8%
248 0.1% 99.7%
249 0.1% 99.6%
250 0.1% 99.6%
251 0.2% 99.4%
252 0.1% 99.2%
253 0.3% 99.1%
254 0.1% 98.8%
255 0.7% 98.6%
256 0.3% 98%
257 0.7% 98%
258 0.8% 97%
259 0.8% 96%
260 1.2% 95%
261 2% 94%
262 1.0% 92%
263 1.1% 91%
264 1.3% 90%
265 0.6% 89%
266 1.5% 89%
267 3% 87%
268 2% 84%
269 4% 82%
270 5% 78%
271 4% 73%
272 6% 69%
273 4% 64%
274 5% 59%
275 1.5% 54%
276 3% 53%
277 4% 50%
278 3% 46%
279 2% 43%
280 4% 41%
281 2% 37%
282 2% 35%
283 0.8% 33%
284 3% 33%
285 4% 30%
286 6% 25%
287 2% 20%
288 4% 18%
289 2% 14%
290 2% 13%
291 1.1% 10%
292 0.4% 9%
293 0.8% 9%
294 0.8% 8%
295 0.9% 7%
296 0.6% 6%
297 0.9% 6%
298 0.2% 5%
299 1.1% 4%
300 0.2% 3%
301 0.4% 3%
302 0.5% 3%
303 0.5% 2%
304 1.1% 2%
305 0.3% 0.5%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
202 0% 100%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0.1% 99.9%
206 0% 99.8%
207 0% 99.8%
208 0% 99.8%
209 0.1% 99.7%
210 0.1% 99.7%
211 0.2% 99.6%
212 0.4% 99.4%
213 0.2% 99.0%
214 0% 98.8%
215 0.4% 98.8%
216 0.1% 98%
217 0.9% 98%
218 0.2% 97%
219 0.6% 97%
220 0.6% 97%
221 0.5% 96%
222 0.6% 95%
223 1.1% 95%
224 0.9% 94%
225 1.0% 93%
226 1.5% 92%
227 4% 90%
228 2% 87%
229 4% 84%
230 3% 80%
231 2% 77%
232 6% 74%
233 3% 68%
234 2% 64%
235 0.7% 62%
236 4% 61%
237 4% 57%
238 1.2% 54%
239 5% 52%
240 2% 48%
241 2% 46%
242 2% 44%
243 3% 43%
244 1.0% 39%
245 2% 38%
246 5% 36%
247 2% 31%
248 3% 28%
249 3% 26%
250 2% 23%
251 2% 21%
252 3% 19%
253 2% 16%
254 0.9% 14%
255 0.7% 13%
256 0.6% 13%
257 1.1% 12%
258 0.8% 11%
259 0.7% 10%
260 0.4% 10%
261 1.0% 9%
262 0.5% 8%
263 1.2% 8%
264 1.5% 7%
265 0.4% 5%
266 0.4% 5%
267 0.1% 4%
268 0.2% 4%
269 0.3% 4%
270 0.3% 4%
271 0.4% 4%
272 0.2% 3%
273 0.2% 3%
274 0.7% 3%
275 0% 2%
276 0.3% 2%
277 0.1% 2%
278 0.1% 1.5%
279 0.2% 1.4%
280 0.1% 1.2%
281 0.2% 1.2%
282 0% 1.0%
283 0.1% 0.9%
284 0.1% 0.8%
285 0.3% 0.7%
286 0.1% 0.5%
287 0% 0.4%
288 0% 0.4%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0.1% 0.3%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
201 0% 100%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0.1% 99.9%
206 0.1% 99.8%
207 0% 99.7%
208 0.1% 99.7%
209 0.1% 99.6%
210 0.2% 99.6%
211 0.2% 99.4%
212 0.4% 99.2%
213 0.2% 98.7%
214 0.4% 98.6%
215 0.4% 98%
216 0.1% 98%
217 0.7% 98%
218 0.4% 97%
219 0.9% 97%
220 0.9% 96%
221 0.7% 95%
222 0.3% 94%
223 1.0% 94%
224 2% 93%
225 2% 91%
226 1.4% 89%
227 4% 88%
228 2% 83%
229 6% 81%
230 2% 75%
231 3% 73%
232 6% 70%
233 3% 64%
234 2% 61%
235 3% 59%
236 3% 57%
237 2% 53%
238 2% 52%
239 4% 50%
240 2% 46%
241 2% 44%
242 1.3% 42%
243 4% 41%
244 2% 37%
245 3% 36%
246 4% 33%
247 3% 29%
248 4% 26%
249 1.5% 22%
250 2% 21%
251 0.7% 18%
252 3% 18%
253 1.0% 15%
254 1.1% 14%
255 0.7% 13%
256 0.7% 12%
257 0.7% 11%
258 0.9% 10%
259 0.8% 9%
260 0.3% 9%
261 0.8% 8%
262 0.3% 8%
263 1.4% 7%
264 1.3% 6%
265 0.2% 5%
266 0.2% 4%
267 0.2% 4%
268 0.4% 4%
269 0.3% 4%
270 0.2% 3%
271 0.4% 3%
272 0.1% 3%
273 0.7% 3%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0.1% 2%
276 0.3% 2%
277 0.2% 1.4%
278 0% 1.3%
279 0.1% 1.2%
280 0% 1.1%
281 0.2% 1.1%
282 0.1% 0.9%
283 0.1% 0.8%
284 0.2% 0.7%
285 0.1% 0.5%
286 0% 0.4%
287 0% 0.4%
288 0% 0.3%
289 0% 0.3%
290 0.1% 0.3%
291 0% 0.2%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
196 0% 100%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0% 99.8%
201 0% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.7%
203 0.1% 99.7%
204 0.3% 99.6%
205 0.3% 99.3%
206 0.4% 99.1%
207 0.2% 98.7%
208 0.1% 98%
209 0.6% 98%
210 0.5% 98%
211 0.4% 97%
212 0.9% 97%
213 0.2% 96%
214 0.3% 96%
215 0.8% 95%
216 1.0% 95%
217 2% 94%
218 0.9% 92%
219 2% 91%
220 3% 89%
221 3% 86%
222 6% 83%
223 1.0% 77%
224 4% 76%
225 5% 72%
226 7% 67%
227 2% 60%
228 3% 58%
229 1.4% 56%
230 3% 54%
231 3% 51%
232 3% 48%
233 4% 45%
234 2% 41%
235 1.4% 39%
236 2% 37%
237 2% 36%
238 3% 33%
239 6% 30%
240 4% 25%
241 1.0% 21%
242 1.4% 20%
243 3% 19%
244 1.1% 16%
245 0.8% 15%
246 2% 14%
247 0.9% 12%
248 0.6% 11%
249 0.6% 11%
250 1.2% 10%
251 1.1% 9%
252 0.5% 8%
253 1.5% 7%
254 0.7% 6%
255 0.7% 5%
256 0.5% 5%
257 0.3% 4%
258 0.2% 4%
259 0.4% 4%
260 0.4% 3%
261 0.4% 3%
262 0.5% 2%
263 0.2% 2%
264 0.1% 2%
265 0% 2%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0% 1.3%
268 0.2% 1.3%
269 0.1% 1.0%
270 0% 0.9%
271 0.1% 0.9%
272 0.1% 0.8%
273 0% 0.7%
274 0.2% 0.6%
275 0.1% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
194 0% 100%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0% 99.9%
197 0% 99.9%
198 0% 99.9%
199 0.1% 99.9%
200 0.1% 99.7%
201 0% 99.7%
202 0.1% 99.6%
203 0.1% 99.5%
204 0.3% 99.4%
205 0.2% 99.1%
206 0.7% 98.8%
207 0.3% 98%
208 0.1% 98%
209 0.3% 98%
210 0.3% 97%
211 0.5% 97%
212 1.2% 97%
213 0.8% 95%
214 0.8% 95%
215 0.6% 94%
216 0.7% 93%
217 3% 92%
218 1.5% 89%
219 2% 88%
220 2% 85%
221 3% 83%
222 6% 80%
223 4% 74%
224 3% 70%
225 5% 67%
226 3% 62%
227 2% 58%
228 3% 56%
229 3% 53%
230 3% 50%
231 3% 48%
232 1.2% 44%
233 4% 43%
234 3% 39%
235 1.1% 36%
236 2% 35%
237 3% 33%
238 4% 31%
239 4% 27%
240 4% 23%
241 0.7% 19%
242 1.3% 18%
243 3% 17%
244 1.0% 14%
245 2% 13%
246 0.5% 12%
247 0.7% 11%
248 0.6% 11%
249 0.8% 10%
250 1.1% 9%
251 1.0% 8%
252 0.5% 7%
253 1.3% 7%
254 0.6% 5%
255 0.5% 5%
256 0.6% 4%
257 0.5% 4%
258 0.1% 3%
259 0.3% 3%
260 0.4% 3%
261 0.4% 2%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.3% 2%
264 0.1% 1.5%
265 0.1% 1.4%
266 0% 1.3%
267 0% 1.3%
268 0.3% 1.2%
269 0.2% 1.0%
270 0.1% 0.8%
271 0% 0.7%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.6%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.3%
277 0.1% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations