Opinion Poll by YouGov for Sunday Times, 1–2 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 30.4% 40.9% 38.9–42.0% 38.4–42.5% 38.0–42.9% 37.3–43.7%
Conservative Party 36.9% 39.9% 37.9–41.1% 37.5–41.5% 37.1–41.9% 36.4–42.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.0% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.2% 3.6–4.9% 3.4–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.0–5.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 232 294 267–318 263–326 259–331 252–335
Conservative Party 331 298 276–313 272–316 269–318 261–323
Liberal Democrats 8 15 8–22 7–23 6–25 4–27
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 26 6–48 5–50 4–51 2–54
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 2 0–3 0–4 0–5 0–5

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
247 0% 100%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.9%
251 0.1% 99.8%
252 0.2% 99.7%
253 0.1% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.4%
255 0.4% 99.3%
256 0.2% 98.9%
257 0.4% 98.7%
258 0.3% 98%
259 0.6% 98%
260 0.7% 97%
261 0.7% 97%
262 0.6% 96%
263 2% 95%
264 1.4% 94%
265 0.8% 92%
266 2% 92%
267 0.6% 90%
268 1.5% 89%
269 4% 88%
270 1.0% 84%
271 0.4% 83%
272 1.4% 83%
273 0.8% 82%
274 2% 81%
275 2% 78%
276 2% 76%
277 2% 75%
278 1.1% 73%
279 0.6% 72%
280 1.2% 71%
281 1.1% 70%
282 2% 69%
283 1.3% 67%
284 2% 66%
285 2% 64%
286 2% 62%
287 1.1% 61%
288 2% 59%
289 0.6% 58%
290 2% 57%
291 0.7% 55%
292 2% 54%
293 2% 52%
294 0.7% 50%
295 3% 50%
296 1.2% 47%
297 3% 46%
298 3% 42%
299 2% 39%
300 2% 38%
301 2% 36%
302 2% 34%
303 0.5% 32%
304 2% 32%
305 3% 29%
306 3% 26%
307 3% 23%
308 1.2% 21%
309 0.3% 19%
310 0.4% 19%
311 0.9% 19%
312 2% 18%
313 2% 16%
314 0.8% 14%
315 1.3% 13%
316 0.5% 12%
317 0.7% 11%
318 2% 11%
319 0.9% 9%
320 0.4% 8%
321 0.4% 8%
322 0.4% 7%
323 0.4% 7%
324 0.6% 6%
325 0.7% 6%
326 0.7% 5%
327 1.1% 5%
328 0.2% 3%
329 0.4% 3%
330 0.2% 3%
331 0.6% 3%
332 0.5% 2%
333 0.4% 1.5%
334 0.3% 1.1%
335 0.2% 0.7%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.4%
339 0.1% 0.3%
340 0.1% 0.3%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0.1% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
253 0% 100%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.9%
257 0.1% 99.8%
258 0.1% 99.8%
259 0.1% 99.7%
260 0.1% 99.6%
261 0% 99.5%
262 0.1% 99.5%
263 0.1% 99.4%
264 0.1% 99.3%
265 0.3% 99.1%
266 0.3% 98.9%
267 0.3% 98.6%
268 0.4% 98%
269 0.7% 98%
270 0.4% 97%
271 1.3% 97%
272 0.7% 95%
273 1.2% 95%
274 0.6% 93%
275 2% 93%
276 2% 91%
277 0.8% 89%
278 2% 89%
279 0.4% 86%
280 0.9% 86%
281 1.4% 85%
282 2% 84%
283 3% 81%
284 2% 78%
285 0.4% 76%
286 1.2% 76%
287 2% 75%
288 2% 73%
289 2% 71%
290 2% 69%
291 2% 67%
292 1.1% 65%
293 4% 64%
294 2% 60%
295 1.2% 58%
296 1.2% 57%
297 2% 55%
298 6% 53%
299 4% 47%
300 1.4% 43%
301 1.4% 42%
302 5% 40%
303 2% 35%
304 1.5% 33%
305 3% 32%
306 3% 28%
307 2% 25%
308 3% 23%
309 2% 20%
310 2% 18%
311 3% 17%
312 2% 13%
313 3% 11%
314 1.2% 9%
315 1.4% 7%
316 1.0% 6%
317 2% 5%
318 0.8% 3%
319 0.5% 2%
320 0.4% 2%
321 0.2% 2%
322 0.8% 1.5%
323 0.4% 0.7%
324 0.1% 0.3%
325 0.1% 0.2%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.1% 100%
4 0.8% 99.9%
5 1.0% 99.0%
6 2% 98%
7 3% 96%
8 5% 94%
9 5% 89%
10 3% 83%
11 9% 81%
12 7% 72%
13 5% 65%
14 7% 60%
15 9% 53%
16 6% 45%
17 6% 39%
18 5% 33%
19 6% 28%
20 6% 22%
21 4% 17%
22 6% 12%
23 2% 6%
24 2% 4%
25 0.7% 3%
26 0.8% 2%
27 0.9% 1.1%
28 0.1% 0.3%
29 0.1% 0.2%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0.1%
33 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.2% 100%
2 0.4% 99.7%
3 1.1% 99.3%
4 2% 98%
5 3% 96%
6 5% 93%
7 3% 88%
8 2% 86%
9 2% 84%
10 2% 82%
11 5% 80%
12 0.7% 75%
13 1.0% 74%
14 1.0% 73%
15 1.4% 72%
16 2% 71%
17 4% 69%
18 2% 65%
19 2% 63%
20 2% 61%
21 1.3% 59%
22 2% 58%
23 1.2% 56%
24 2% 55%
25 2% 53%
26 2% 51%
27 1.1% 49%
28 2% 48%
29 3% 46%
30 2% 43%
31 2% 41%
32 0.9% 38%
33 2% 37%
34 3% 35%
35 2% 33%
36 2% 31%
37 1.5% 29%
38 0.9% 28%
39 2% 27%
40 0.7% 24%
41 0.8% 24%
42 0.7% 23%
43 1.2% 22%
44 1.2% 21%
45 5% 20%
46 2% 15%
47 0.9% 13%
48 3% 12%
49 4% 10%
50 2% 6%
51 2% 4%
52 0.6% 2%
53 0.3% 1.2%
54 0.6% 0.9%
55 0.2% 0.4%
56 0.1% 0.2%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.7% 100%
1 0.3% 0.3%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 20% 100%
1 29% 80%
2 10% 51%
3 34% 41%
4 3% 7%
5 4% 4%
6 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 334 319–356 315–360 314–363 309–371
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 323 297–353 289–358 284–363 277–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 333 316–354 314–358 311–362 307–369
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 321 294–351 287–356 282–360 275–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 311 281–338 276–345 272–350 265–357
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 319 304–340 301–345 299–348 293–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 309 279–335 274–343 269–348 263–355
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 317 302–338 299–343 297–345 292–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 313 292–328 287–331 284–333 278–339
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 295 269–320 264–327 261–332 255–337
Labour Party 232 294 267–318 263–326 259–331 252–335
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 299 278–316 274–318 270–321 263–325
Conservative Party 331 298 276–313 272–316 269–318 261–323

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
302 0% 100%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0.1% 99.8%
308 0.1% 99.8%
309 0.4% 99.7%
310 0.8% 99.3%
311 0.2% 98.5%
312 0.4% 98%
313 0.5% 98%
314 0.8% 98%
315 2% 97%
316 1.0% 95%
317 1.4% 94%
318 1.2% 93%
319 3% 91%
320 2% 89%
321 3% 87%
322 2% 83%
323 2% 82%
324 3% 80%
325 2% 77%
326 3% 75%
327 3% 72%
328 1.5% 68%
329 2% 67%
330 5% 65%
331 1.5% 59%
332 1.4% 58%
333 4% 57%
334 6% 53%
335 2% 47%
336 1.2% 45%
337 1.3% 43%
338 2% 42%
339 4% 40%
340 1.1% 36%
341 2% 35%
342 2% 33%
343 2% 31%
344 2% 29%
345 2% 27%
346 1.2% 25%
347 0.4% 24%
348 2% 24%
349 3% 21%
350 2% 19%
351 1.4% 16%
352 0.9% 15%
353 0.4% 14%
354 2% 14%
355 0.8% 11%
356 2% 11%
357 2% 9%
358 0.6% 7%
359 1.2% 7%
360 0.7% 5%
361 1.3% 5%
362 0.4% 3%
363 0.7% 3%
364 0.4% 2%
365 0.3% 2%
366 0.3% 1.4%
367 0.3% 1.1%
368 0.1% 0.9%
369 0.1% 0.7%
370 0.1% 0.6%
371 0% 0.5%
372 0.1% 0.5%
373 0.1% 0.4%
374 0.1% 0.3%
375 0.1% 0.2%
376 0.1% 0.2%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
266 0% 100%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0.1% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.8%
271 0% 99.8%
272 0% 99.8%
273 0% 99.8%
274 0% 99.7%
275 0.2% 99.7%
276 0% 99.6%
277 0.1% 99.5%
278 0.5% 99.4%
279 0.3% 98.9%
280 0.2% 98.7%
281 0.2% 98%
282 0.4% 98%
283 0.2% 98%
284 0.3% 98%
285 1.0% 97%
286 0.2% 96%
287 0.7% 96%
288 0.3% 96%
289 0.6% 95%
290 0.6% 95%
291 0.8% 94%
292 0.2% 93%
293 0.3% 93%
294 0.6% 93%
295 0.5% 92%
296 2% 92%
297 1.1% 90%
298 0.7% 89%
299 1.1% 88%
300 0.3% 87%
301 1.4% 87%
302 0.4% 86%
303 0.4% 85%
304 1.4% 85%
305 3% 83%
306 2% 81%
307 2% 79%
308 1.3% 77%
309 0.9% 76%
310 3% 75%
311 1.1% 72%
312 2% 71%
313 1.4% 70%
314 2% 68%
315 2% 66%
316 3% 64%
317 0.7% 61%
318 1.2% 60%
319 2% 59%
320 1.5% 57%
321 1.5% 55%
322 1.3% 54%
323 4% 53%
324 1.3% 49%
325 0.8% 48%
326 3% 47%
327 1.0% 44%
328 1.1% 43%
329 1.1% 42%
330 1.4% 41%
331 0.6% 39%
332 1.2% 39%
333 0.4% 38%
334 1.3% 37%
335 2% 36%
336 2% 34%
337 2% 32%
338 2% 30%
339 2% 28%
340 0.5% 26%
341 0.6% 26%
342 2% 25%
343 0.5% 23%
344 1.1% 23%
345 3% 22%
346 1.0% 19%
347 2% 18%
348 0.7% 16%
349 2% 15%
350 0.8% 14%
351 1.2% 13%
352 2% 12%
353 0.3% 10%
354 3% 10%
355 1.0% 7%
356 0.4% 6%
357 0.4% 6%
358 0.5% 5%
359 0.7% 5%
360 0.4% 4%
361 0.5% 4%
362 0.4% 3%
363 0.9% 3%
364 0.5% 2%
365 0.2% 1.3%
366 0.1% 1.1%
367 0.2% 1.0%
368 0.2% 0.7%
369 0.1% 0.5%
370 0.1% 0.4%
371 0.1% 0.3%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0% 0.2%
374 0% 0.1%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
300 0% 100%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0.1% 99.9%
305 0.1% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.8%
307 0.3% 99.6%
308 0.1% 99.3%
309 0.9% 99.2%
310 0.4% 98%
311 0.6% 98%
312 0.4% 97%
313 1.2% 97%
314 1.1% 96%
315 2% 95%
316 3% 93%
317 1.4% 90%
318 2% 88%
319 1.3% 87%
320 3% 85%
321 3% 82%
322 2% 79%
323 3% 77%
324 2% 74%
325 3% 72%
326 3% 70%
327 4% 67%
328 3% 63%
329 2% 60%
330 1.1% 58%
331 3% 57%
332 2% 54%
333 6% 51%
334 0.9% 45%
335 3% 44%
336 2% 42%
337 1.0% 39%
338 4% 38%
339 2% 35%
340 2% 33%
341 1.1% 31%
342 1.1% 30%
343 2% 29%
344 2% 27%
345 2% 25%
346 2% 23%
347 3% 21%
348 1.3% 18%
349 0.6% 17%
350 1.0% 16%
351 2% 15%
352 0.9% 13%
353 2% 12%
354 2% 10%
355 0.9% 9%
356 1.1% 8%
357 0.8% 7%
358 1.4% 6%
359 0.8% 5%
360 0.9% 4%
361 0.3% 3%
362 0.5% 3%
363 0.6% 2%
364 0.2% 2%
365 0.4% 1.3%
366 0.2% 1.0%
367 0.1% 0.7%
368 0.1% 0.7%
369 0.1% 0.5%
370 0.1% 0.4%
371 0% 0.4%
372 0.1% 0.3%
373 0.1% 0.3%
374 0.1% 0.2%
375 0% 0.1%
376 0% 0.1%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
264 0% 100%
265 0% 99.9%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0.1% 99.9%
268 0% 99.8%
269 0% 99.8%
270 0% 99.8%
271 0% 99.8%
272 0% 99.8%
273 0% 99.7%
274 0.1% 99.7%
275 0.1% 99.5%
276 0.1% 99.5%
277 0.5% 99.3%
278 0.2% 98.8%
279 0.3% 98.6%
280 0.2% 98%
281 0.3% 98%
282 0.3% 98%
283 0.5% 97%
284 0.8% 97%
285 0.3% 96%
286 0.1% 96%
287 1.0% 96%
288 0.4% 95%
289 0.7% 94%
290 0.5% 94%
291 0.4% 93%
292 0.4% 93%
293 2% 92%
294 0.9% 91%
295 0.5% 90%
296 1.4% 89%
297 0.7% 88%
298 0.3% 87%
299 0.5% 87%
300 1.2% 87%
301 1.1% 85%
302 2% 84%
303 0.3% 82%
304 3% 82%
305 2% 79%
306 2% 77%
307 0.8% 76%
308 0.6% 75%
309 4% 74%
310 1.0% 70%
311 0.8% 69%
312 2% 69%
313 0.9% 66%
314 2% 65%
315 0.5% 63%
316 3% 63%
317 1.4% 59%
318 2% 58%
319 1.2% 56%
320 4% 55%
321 0.9% 51%
322 1.5% 50%
323 2% 48%
324 0.9% 47%
325 2% 46%
326 1.5% 43%
327 1.1% 42%
328 1.5% 41%
329 0.7% 39%
330 0.6% 39%
331 1.3% 38%
332 1.0% 37%
333 2% 36%
334 0.9% 33%
335 2% 32%
336 2% 30%
337 1.1% 28%
338 1.1% 27%
339 0.8% 26%
340 1.4% 25%
341 1.1% 24%
342 2% 22%
343 0.8% 20%
344 1.5% 19%
345 1.5% 18%
346 1.0% 17%
347 2% 16%
348 1.0% 13%
349 0.8% 12%
350 0.9% 12%
351 2% 11%
352 1.0% 9%
353 1.3% 8%
354 0.8% 7%
355 0.6% 6%
356 0.9% 5%
357 0.2% 4%
358 0.3% 4%
359 0.3% 4%
360 0.8% 3%
361 0.5% 2%
362 0.6% 2%
363 0.3% 1.4%
364 0.3% 1.1%
365 0.1% 0.8%
366 0.1% 0.6%
367 0.2% 0.6%
368 0.1% 0.4%
369 0.1% 0.3%
370 0.1% 0.2%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0.1%
373 0% 0.1%
374 0% 0.1%
375 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
258 0% 100%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0% 99.9%
261 0% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.9%
263 0.1% 99.8%
264 0.1% 99.7%
265 0.2% 99.6%
266 0.1% 99.4%
267 0.1% 99.4%
268 0.3% 99.2%
269 0.3% 98.9%
270 0.6% 98.6%
271 0.5% 98%
272 0.8% 98%
273 0.3% 97%
274 0.3% 96%
275 0.2% 96%
276 0.9% 96%
277 0.6% 95%
278 0.8% 94%
279 1.3% 93%
280 1.0% 92%
281 2% 91%
282 0.9% 89%
283 0.8% 88%
284 1.0% 88%
285 2% 87%
286 1.0% 84%
287 1.4% 83%
288 1.5% 82%
289 0.8% 81%
290 2% 80%
291 1.1% 78%
292 1.4% 76%
293 0.8% 75%
294 1.1% 74%
295 1.1% 73%
296 2% 72%
297 2% 70%
298 0.9% 68%
299 2% 67%
300 1.0% 64%
301 1.3% 63%
302 0.6% 62%
303 0.7% 61%
304 1.5% 61%
305 1.1% 59%
306 1.5% 58%
307 2% 57%
308 0.9% 54%
309 2% 53%
310 1.5% 52%
311 0.9% 50%
312 4% 49%
313 1.1% 45%
314 2% 44%
315 1.4% 42%
316 3% 41%
317 0.5% 37%
318 2% 37%
319 0.9% 35%
320 2% 34%
321 0.8% 31%
322 1.0% 31%
323 4% 30%
324 0.6% 26%
325 0.8% 25%
326 2% 24%
327 2% 23%
328 3% 21%
329 0.3% 18%
330 2% 18%
331 1.1% 16%
332 1.2% 15%
333 0.5% 13%
334 0.3% 13%
335 0.7% 13%
336 1.4% 12%
337 0.5% 11%
338 0.9% 10%
339 2% 9%
340 0.4% 8%
341 0.4% 7%
342 0.5% 7%
343 0.7% 6%
344 0.4% 6%
345 1.0% 5%
346 0.1% 4%
347 0.3% 4%
348 0.8% 4%
349 0.5% 3%
350 0.3% 3%
351 0.3% 2%
352 0.2% 2%
353 0.3% 2%
354 0.2% 1.4%
355 0.5% 1.2%
356 0.1% 0.7%
357 0.1% 0.5%
358 0.1% 0.5%
359 0% 0.3%
360 0% 0.3%
361 0% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.2%
364 0% 0.2%
365 0.1% 0.2%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0.1%
369 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
288 0% 100%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0.1% 99.9%
293 0.3% 99.8%
294 0.5% 99.5%
295 0.5% 99.0%
296 0.1% 98.6%
297 0.4% 98%
298 0.5% 98%
299 1.0% 98%
300 1.3% 97%
301 1.4% 95%
302 2% 94%
303 0.8% 92%
304 3% 91%
305 3% 88%
306 2% 86%
307 2% 84%
308 2% 82%
309 1.4% 80%
310 3% 79%
311 3% 75%
312 1.5% 72%
313 3% 71%
314 3% 67%
315 1.3% 64%
316 4% 62%
317 3% 59%
318 3% 56%
319 4% 53%
320 4% 49%
321 1.4% 45%
322 2% 44%
323 3% 42%
324 0.9% 39%
325 1.3% 38%
326 2% 37%
327 6% 35%
328 0.7% 29%
329 0.5% 28%
330 1.3% 28%
331 2% 27%
332 3% 24%
333 2% 22%
334 0.9% 19%
335 0.7% 19%
336 3% 18%
337 2% 15%
338 0.8% 14%
339 2% 13%
340 1.4% 11%
341 2% 9%
342 0.8% 7%
343 0.9% 7%
344 0.5% 6%
345 2% 5%
346 1.0% 4%
347 0.2% 3%
348 0.7% 3%
349 0.4% 2%
350 0.3% 1.4%
351 0.4% 1.1%
352 0.1% 0.8%
353 0.1% 0.7%
354 0% 0.5%
355 0% 0.5%
356 0.2% 0.4%
357 0.1% 0.3%
358 0% 0.2%
359 0% 0.2%
360 0.1% 0.1%
361 0% 0.1%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
257 0% 100%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0% 99.9%
260 0.1% 99.8%
261 0.1% 99.7%
262 0.1% 99.7%
263 0.1% 99.6%
264 0.2% 99.5%
265 0.2% 99.3%
266 0.1% 99.0%
267 0.2% 98.9%
268 0.5% 98.7%
269 0.9% 98%
270 0.4% 97%
271 0.5% 97%
272 0.4% 96%
273 0.7% 96%
274 0.5% 95%
275 0.4% 95%
276 0.4% 94%
277 1.0% 94%
278 3% 93%
279 0.3% 90%
280 2% 90%
281 1.2% 88%
282 0.8% 87%
283 2% 86%
284 0.7% 85%
285 2% 84%
286 1.0% 82%
287 3% 81%
288 1.1% 78%
289 0.5% 77%
290 2% 77%
291 0.6% 75%
292 0.5% 74%
293 2% 74%
294 2% 72%
295 2% 70%
296 2% 68%
297 2% 66%
298 1.3% 64%
299 0.4% 63%
300 1.2% 62%
301 0.6% 61%
302 1.4% 61%
303 1.2% 59%
304 1.1% 58%
305 1.0% 57%
306 3% 56%
307 0.8% 53%
308 1.3% 52%
309 4% 51%
310 1.3% 47%
311 1.5% 46%
312 1.5% 45%
313 2% 43%
314 1.2% 41%
315 0.7% 40%
316 3% 39%
317 2% 36%
318 2% 34%
319 1.4% 32%
320 2% 30%
321 1.1% 29%
322 3% 28%
323 0.9% 25%
324 1.3% 24%
325 2% 23%
326 2% 21%
327 3% 19%
328 1.4% 17%
329 0.4% 15%
330 0.4% 15%
331 1.4% 14%
332 0.3% 13%
333 1.1% 13%
334 0.7% 12%
335 1.1% 11%
336 2% 10%
337 0.5% 8%
338 0.6% 8%
339 0.3% 7%
340 0.2% 7%
341 0.8% 7%
342 0.6% 6%
343 0.6% 5%
344 0.3% 5%
345 0.7% 4%
346 0.2% 4%
347 1.0% 4%
348 0.3% 3%
349 0.2% 2%
350 0.4% 2%
351 0.2% 2%
352 0.2% 2%
353 0.3% 1.3%
354 0.5% 1.1%
355 0.1% 0.6%
356 0% 0.5%
357 0.2% 0.4%
358 0% 0.3%
359 0% 0.3%
360 0% 0.2%
361 0% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.2%
364 0.1% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
286 0% 100%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0.1% 99.9%
290 0.1% 99.8%
291 0.2% 99.7%
292 0.2% 99.6%
293 0.6% 99.3%
294 0.4% 98.8%
295 0.4% 98%
296 0.3% 98%
297 0.6% 98%
298 0.8% 97%
299 1.4% 96%
300 2% 95%
301 2% 93%
302 3% 91%
303 1.1% 88%
304 2% 87%
305 3% 85%
306 1.4% 82%
307 2% 81%
308 2% 79%
309 3% 76%
310 2% 73%
311 4% 71%
312 1.0% 67%
313 2% 66%
314 5% 64%
315 4% 59%
316 2% 55%
317 4% 53%
318 3% 49%
319 3% 46%
320 2% 44%
321 2% 42%
322 2% 40%
323 2% 38%
324 5% 36%
325 1.4% 31%
326 1.2% 30%
327 0.9% 29%
328 1.3% 28%
329 2% 26%
330 1.5% 24%
331 2% 23%
332 2% 21%
333 2% 19%
334 0.9% 17%
335 2% 16%
336 1.2% 14%
337 3% 13%
338 0.7% 10%
339 0.9% 10%
340 2% 9%
341 1.0% 7%
342 0.6% 6%
343 1.4% 5%
344 1.2% 4%
345 0.3% 3%
346 0.3% 2%
347 0.5% 2%
348 0.4% 2%
349 0.2% 1.3%
350 0.4% 1.0%
351 0% 0.6%
352 0.1% 0.6%
353 0.1% 0.5%
354 0.1% 0.4%
355 0.1% 0.3%
356 0.1% 0.3%
357 0% 0.2%
358 0% 0.2%
359 0.1% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
270 0% 100%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0.1% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.8%
275 0.1% 99.8%
276 0.2% 99.7%
277 0% 99.6%
278 0% 99.5%
279 0.1% 99.5%
280 0.1% 99.3%
281 0.4% 99.2%
282 0.3% 98.9%
283 0.4% 98.6%
284 0.7% 98%
285 0.2% 97%
286 1.0% 97%
287 2% 96%
288 0.5% 95%
289 0.9% 94%
290 0.8% 93%
291 2% 93%
292 1.4% 91%
293 2% 89%
294 0.8% 87%
295 2% 86%
296 3% 85%
297 0.7% 82%
298 0.9% 81%
299 2% 81%
300 3% 78%
301 2% 76%
302 1.3% 73%
303 0.5% 72%
304 0.7% 72%
305 6% 71%
306 2% 65%
307 1.3% 63%
308 0.9% 62%
309 3% 61%
310 2% 58%
311 1.5% 56%
312 4% 55%
313 4% 51%
314 3% 47%
315 3% 44%
316 4% 41%
317 1.3% 38%
318 3% 36%
319 3% 33%
320 1.5% 29%
321 3% 28%
322 3% 25%
323 1.4% 21%
324 2% 20%
325 2% 18%
326 2% 16%
327 3% 14%
328 3% 12%
329 0.8% 9%
330 2% 8%
331 1.4% 6%
332 1.3% 5%
333 1.0% 3%
334 0.5% 2%
335 0.4% 2%
336 0.1% 2%
337 0.5% 1.4%
338 0.5% 1.0%
339 0.3% 0.5%
340 0.1% 0.2%
341 0.1% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
249 0% 100%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0.1% 99.9%
252 0.1% 99.9%
253 0.1% 99.8%
254 0.1% 99.7%
255 0.4% 99.7%
256 0.1% 99.3%
257 0.1% 99.2%
258 0.2% 99.1%
259 0.3% 98.8%
260 0.8% 98.6%
261 0.3% 98%
262 0.5% 97%
263 0.9% 97%
264 2% 96%
265 2% 94%
266 0.7% 93%
267 0.4% 92%
268 1.5% 92%
269 1.1% 90%
270 1.5% 89%
271 2% 88%
272 2% 85%
273 1.2% 84%
274 0.4% 82%
275 1.3% 82%
276 2% 81%
277 2% 79%
278 2% 77%
279 1.4% 75%
280 1.1% 73%
281 1.0% 72%
282 1.4% 71%
283 1.1% 70%
284 1.5% 69%
285 1.1% 67%
286 1.0% 66%
287 2% 65%
288 3% 63%
289 1.2% 60%
290 1.0% 59%
291 2% 58%
292 1.2% 57%
293 2% 55%
294 2% 53%
295 2% 51%
296 2% 50%
297 3% 48%
298 1.2% 45%
299 1.3% 43%
300 1.1% 42%
301 3% 41%
302 3% 38%
303 2% 34%
304 2% 33%
305 1.3% 31%
306 1.2% 30%
307 1.5% 29%
308 4% 27%
309 2% 23%
310 0.7% 21%
311 1.0% 20%
312 1.1% 19%
313 1.3% 18%
314 0.6% 17%
315 2% 16%
316 1.3% 14%
317 0.7% 13%
318 1.1% 12%
319 0.5% 11%
320 0.9% 11%
321 1.4% 10%
322 1.1% 8%
323 0.3% 7%
324 0.4% 7%
325 0.6% 7%
326 0.2% 6%
327 0.8% 6%
328 0.8% 5%
329 0.5% 4%
330 0.4% 4%
331 0.7% 3%
332 0.5% 3%
333 0.5% 2%
334 0.4% 2%
335 0.4% 1.3%
336 0.3% 0.8%
337 0.1% 0.5%
338 0% 0.5%
339 0% 0.4%
340 0.1% 0.4%
341 0.1% 0.3%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0% 0.2%
345 0.1% 0.2%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
247 0% 100%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.9%
251 0.1% 99.8%
252 0.2% 99.7%
253 0.1% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.4%
255 0.4% 99.3%
256 0.2% 98.9%
257 0.4% 98.7%
258 0.3% 98%
259 0.6% 98%
260 0.7% 97%
261 0.7% 97%
262 0.6% 96%
263 2% 95%
264 1.4% 94%
265 0.8% 92%
266 2% 92%
267 0.6% 90%
268 1.5% 89%
269 4% 88%
270 1.0% 84%
271 0.4% 83%
272 1.4% 83%
273 0.8% 82%
274 2% 81%
275 2% 78%
276 2% 76%
277 2% 75%
278 1.1% 73%
279 0.6% 72%
280 1.2% 71%
281 1.1% 70%
282 2% 69%
283 1.3% 67%
284 2% 66%
285 2% 64%
286 2% 62%
287 1.1% 61%
288 2% 59%
289 0.6% 58%
290 2% 57%
291 0.7% 55%
292 2% 54%
293 2% 52%
294 0.7% 50%
295 3% 50%
296 1.2% 47%
297 3% 46%
298 3% 42%
299 2% 39%
300 2% 38%
301 2% 36%
302 2% 34%
303 0.5% 32%
304 2% 32%
305 3% 29%
306 3% 26%
307 3% 23%
308 1.2% 21%
309 0.3% 19%
310 0.4% 19%
311 0.9% 19%
312 2% 18%
313 2% 16%
314 0.8% 14%
315 1.3% 13%
316 0.5% 12%
317 0.7% 11%
318 2% 11%
319 0.9% 9%
320 0.4% 8%
321 0.4% 8%
322 0.4% 7%
323 0.4% 7%
324 0.6% 6%
325 0.7% 6%
326 0.7% 5%
327 1.1% 5%
328 0.2% 3%
329 0.4% 3%
330 0.2% 3%
331 0.6% 3%
332 0.5% 2%
333 0.4% 1.5%
334 0.3% 1.1%
335 0.2% 0.7%
336 0.1% 0.5%
337 0% 0.4%
338 0.1% 0.4%
339 0.1% 0.3%
340 0.1% 0.3%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0% 0.2%
344 0.1% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
255 0% 100%
256 0% 99.9%
257 0% 99.9%
258 0.1% 99.9%
259 0.1% 99.8%
260 0.1% 99.7%
261 0% 99.7%
262 0.1% 99.6%
263 0.1% 99.6%
264 0.1% 99.5%
265 0.1% 99.3%
266 0.2% 99.3%
267 0.4% 99.0%
268 0.2% 98.7%
269 0.6% 98%
270 0.5% 98%
271 0.3% 97%
272 0.9% 97%
273 0.8% 96%
274 1.4% 95%
275 0.8% 94%
276 1.1% 93%
277 0.9% 92%
278 2% 91%
279 2% 90%
280 0.9% 88%
281 2% 87%
282 1.0% 85%
283 0.6% 84%
284 1.3% 83%
285 3% 82%
286 2% 79%
287 2% 77%
288 2% 75%
289 2% 73%
290 1.1% 71%
291 1.1% 70%
292 2% 69%
293 2% 67%
294 4% 65%
295 1.0% 62%
296 2% 61%
297 3% 58%
298 0.9% 56%
299 6% 55%
300 2% 49%
301 3% 46%
302 1.1% 43%
303 2% 42%
304 3% 40%
305 4% 37%
306 3% 33%
307 3% 30%
308 2% 28%
309 3% 26%
310 2% 23%
311 3% 21%
312 3% 18%
313 1.3% 15%
314 2% 13%
315 1.4% 12%
316 3% 10%
317 2% 7%
318 1.1% 5%
319 1.2% 4%
320 0.4% 3%
321 0.6% 3%
322 0.4% 2%
323 0.9% 2%
324 0.1% 0.8%
325 0.3% 0.7%
326 0.1% 0.4%
327 0.1% 0.2%
328 0.1% 0.2%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
253 0% 100%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.9%
257 0.1% 99.8%
258 0.1% 99.8%
259 0.1% 99.7%
260 0.1% 99.6%
261 0% 99.5%
262 0.1% 99.5%
263 0.1% 99.4%
264 0.1% 99.3%
265 0.3% 99.1%
266 0.3% 98.9%
267 0.3% 98.6%
268 0.4% 98%
269 0.7% 98%
270 0.4% 97%
271 1.3% 97%
272 0.7% 95%
273 1.2% 95%
274 0.6% 93%
275 2% 93%
276 2% 91%
277 0.8% 89%
278 2% 89%
279 0.4% 86%
280 0.9% 86%
281 1.4% 85%
282 2% 84%
283 3% 81%
284 2% 78%
285 0.4% 76%
286 1.2% 76%
287 2% 75%
288 2% 73%
289 2% 71%
290 2% 69%
291 2% 67%
292 1.1% 65%
293 4% 64%
294 2% 60%
295 1.2% 58%
296 1.2% 57%
297 2% 55%
298 6% 53%
299 4% 47%
300 1.4% 43%
301 1.4% 42%
302 5% 40%
303 2% 35%
304 1.5% 33%
305 3% 32%
306 3% 28%
307 2% 25%
308 3% 23%
309 2% 20%
310 2% 18%
311 3% 17%
312 2% 13%
313 3% 11%
314 1.2% 9%
315 1.4% 7%
316 1.0% 6%
317 2% 5%
318 0.8% 3%
319 0.5% 2%
320 0.4% 2%
321 0.2% 2%
322 0.8% 1.5%
323 0.4% 0.7%
324 0.1% 0.3%
325 0.1% 0.2%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations