Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 2–3 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 42.7% 39.5–43.7% 38.9–44.3% 38.3–44.9% 37.3–45.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 41.5% 38.3–42.6% 37.7–43.2% 37.2–43.7% 36.2–44.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 6.0% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.4% 4.5–7.7% 4.1–8.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.4% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.8–6.4%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 2.9% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2% 1.7–4.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.9%
Green Party 3.8% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 312 290–324 282–329 278–334 269–342
Labour Party 232 262 248–293 245–298 239–304 229–328
Liberal Democrats 8 1 0–3 0–4 0–6 0–9
Scottish National Party 56 52 28–57 18–58 14–58 8–58
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 7 5–8 5–11 5–13 4–15
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
260 0% 100%
261 0% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.9%
263 0% 99.8%
264 0% 99.8%
265 0% 99.8%
266 0.1% 99.8%
267 0.1% 99.7%
268 0.1% 99.6%
269 0.1% 99.5%
270 0.1% 99.5%
271 0.1% 99.4%
272 0.1% 99.3%
273 0.1% 99.2%
274 0.1% 99.1%
275 0.3% 99.0%
276 0.4% 98.7%
277 0.4% 98%
278 0.8% 98%
279 0.8% 97%
280 0.5% 96%
281 0.3% 96%
282 1.0% 96%
283 0.7% 95%
284 0.4% 94%
285 0.8% 93%
286 0.3% 93%
287 0.3% 92%
288 0.5% 92%
289 0.8% 91%
290 1.0% 91%
291 1.4% 90%
292 2% 88%
293 1.0% 86%
294 0.2% 86%
295 0.5% 85%
296 0.6% 85%
297 0.7% 84%
298 0.9% 84%
299 2% 83%
300 2% 80%
301 3% 78%
302 0.6% 76%
303 0.7% 75%
304 4% 74%
305 2% 70%
306 4% 68%
307 1.4% 65%
308 2% 63%
309 2% 61%
310 2% 59%
311 4% 57%
312 3% 53%
313 1.3% 49%
314 6% 48%
315 7% 42%
316 5% 35%
317 5% 30%
318 2% 25%
319 2% 23%
320 3% 21%
321 2% 19%
322 3% 16%
323 3% 13%
324 2% 10%
325 2% 9%
326 0.4% 7%
327 0.9% 7%
328 0.4% 6%
329 0.8% 5%
330 0.6% 4%
331 0.3% 4%
332 0.3% 4%
333 0.4% 3%
334 0.7% 3%
335 0.2% 2%
336 0.1% 2%
337 0.5% 2%
338 0.3% 1.3%
339 0.1% 1.1%
340 0.3% 1.0%
341 0.1% 0.7%
342 0.1% 0.6%
343 0.1% 0.4%
344 0% 0.3%
345 0.1% 0.3%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0.1% 99.9%
223 0% 99.8%
224 0% 99.8%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0% 99.7%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.6%
230 0.1% 99.4%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.2% 99.3%
233 0.2% 99.0%
234 0.1% 98.9%
235 0.3% 98.7%
236 0.2% 98%
237 0.3% 98%
238 0.3% 98%
239 0.3% 98%
240 0.3% 97%
241 0.2% 97%
242 0.3% 97%
243 0.5% 97%
244 0.7% 96%
245 1.1% 95%
246 1.0% 94%
247 2% 93%
248 2% 92%
249 0.9% 90%
250 2% 89%
251 3% 87%
252 3% 84%
253 2% 80%
254 4% 78%
255 5% 74%
256 3% 69%
257 4% 66%
258 3% 62%
259 2% 59%
260 3% 57%
261 2% 54%
262 3% 52%
263 2% 49%
264 2% 48%
265 1.2% 46%
266 0.6% 45%
267 0.9% 44%
268 2% 43%
269 2% 42%
270 1.4% 40%
271 2% 39%
272 1.2% 37%
273 0.5% 36%
274 1.5% 35%
275 0.7% 34%
276 2% 33%
277 0.8% 31%
278 0.9% 30%
279 1.2% 29%
280 1.2% 28%
281 2% 27%
282 1.4% 25%
283 2% 24%
284 2% 22%
285 0.7% 20%
286 0.9% 20%
287 1.1% 19%
288 0.7% 18%
289 0.9% 17%
290 2% 16%
291 2% 14%
292 1.2% 12%
293 2% 11%
294 2% 9%
295 0.5% 8%
296 0.8% 7%
297 1.1% 6%
298 0.6% 5%
299 0.1% 5%
300 0.4% 5%
301 0.2% 4%
302 0.3% 4%
303 0.4% 4%
304 1.0% 3%
305 0.1% 2%
306 0.1% 2%
307 0.1% 2%
308 0.1% 2%
309 0.1% 2%
310 0.1% 2%
311 0.1% 2%
312 0.1% 2%
313 0% 1.4%
314 0.1% 1.4%
315 0.1% 1.3%
316 0.1% 1.3%
317 0.1% 1.2%
318 0.1% 1.1%
319 0% 1.0%
320 0.1% 1.0%
321 0.1% 0.9%
322 0% 0.9%
323 0% 0.8%
324 0% 0.8%
325 0.2% 0.7%
326 0% 0.6%
327 0% 0.5%
328 0.1% 0.5%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0.1% 0.4%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.2%
335 0.1% 0.2%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 34% 100%
1 38% 66%
2 15% 28%
3 6% 13%
4 3% 7%
5 1.2% 4%
6 0.6% 3%
7 0.7% 2%
8 0.7% 1.3%
9 0.1% 0.5%
10 0.2% 0.4%
11 0.1% 0.2%
12 0% 0.1%
13 0% 0.1%
14 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0% 100%
4 0% 99.9%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0.1% 99.8%
7 0.1% 99.7%
8 0.1% 99.6%
9 0.2% 99.5%
10 0.3% 99.2%
11 0.2% 99.0%
12 0.4% 98.8%
13 0.5% 98%
14 0.5% 98%
15 0.2% 97%
16 1.0% 97%
17 0.6% 96%
18 0.5% 95%
19 0.6% 95%
20 0.4% 94%
21 0.4% 94%
22 0.2% 94%
23 0.4% 93%
24 0.5% 93%
25 0.5% 92%
26 0.7% 92%
27 0.3% 91%
28 2% 91%
29 0.4% 89%
30 0.4% 89%
31 0.5% 88%
32 0.5% 88%
33 0.8% 87%
34 0.8% 86%
35 2% 86%
36 3% 84%
37 1.2% 81%
38 1.1% 80%
39 0.6% 78%
40 1.1% 78%
41 2% 77%
42 2% 74%
43 2% 72%
44 1.4% 70%
45 0.3% 69%
46 0.2% 69%
47 0.6% 69%
48 1.1% 68%
49 2% 67%
50 3% 65%
51 8% 62%
52 13% 54%
53 9% 40%
54 3% 31%
55 13% 28%
56 5% 16%
57 3% 10%
58 7% 7%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
3 0.1% 100%
4 1.3% 99.8%
5 36% 98%
6 5% 63%
7 36% 58%
8 13% 22%
9 2% 9%
10 2% 7%
11 2% 6%
12 0.4% 4%
13 2% 3%
14 0.4% 1.2%
15 0.3% 0.8%
16 0.4% 0.5%
17 0.1% 0.1%
18 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 369 337–383 331–387 326–392 301–402
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 362 331–375 325–379 319–385 295–395
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 320 308–342 303–350 298–354 290–363
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 318 307–340 302–348 298–352 289–362
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 313 301–335 296–343 291–348 283–357
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 311 300–335 296–342 290–346 281–355
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 319 297–331 289–336 284–341 275–349
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 314 292–325 284–330 280–334 270–343
Conservative Party 331 312 290–324 282–329 278–334 269–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 270 257–301 253–307 247–313 237–337
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 269 256–299 252–304 246–310 236–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 263 249–295 245–301 240–306 230–331
Labour Party 232 262 248–293 245–298 239–304 229–328

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
290 0% 100%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0% 99.9%
293 0% 99.9%
294 0% 99.9%
295 0.1% 99.9%
296 0% 99.8%
297 0.1% 99.8%
298 0% 99.7%
299 0% 99.6%
300 0.1% 99.6%
301 0.1% 99.6%
302 0.1% 99.5%
303 0% 99.4%
304 0% 99.4%
305 0.2% 99.4%
306 0% 99.2%
307 0% 99.1%
308 0% 99.1%
309 0.1% 99.1%
310 0.1% 99.0%
311 0% 98.9%
312 0.1% 98.9%
313 0.1% 98.8%
314 0.1% 98.8%
315 0.1% 98.7%
316 0% 98.6%
317 0.1% 98.6%
318 0% 98.5%
319 0.1% 98%
320 0.2% 98%
321 0.1% 98%
322 0.1% 98%
323 0.1% 98%
324 0.2% 98%
325 0.2% 98%
326 0.5% 98%
327 0.8% 97%
328 0.4% 96%
329 0.4% 96%
330 0.3% 95%
331 0.4% 95%
332 0.7% 95%
333 0.4% 94%
334 0.9% 94%
335 0.6% 93%
336 0.9% 92%
337 2% 91%
338 2% 89%
339 1.0% 87%
340 1.3% 86%
341 2% 85%
342 0.8% 83%
343 0.9% 82%
344 0.7% 81%
345 0.4% 81%
346 1.3% 80%
347 0.6% 79%
348 2% 78%
349 4% 76%
350 1.2% 73%
351 0.5% 71%
352 0.7% 71%
353 1.2% 70%
354 0.9% 69%
355 2% 68%
356 0.6% 66%
357 0.8% 66%
358 0.9% 65%
359 2% 64%
360 2% 62%
361 0.8% 60%
362 1.4% 59%
363 1.2% 58%
364 1.0% 57%
365 0.7% 56%
366 0.9% 55%
367 2% 54%
368 1.2% 52%
369 4% 51%
370 2% 47%
371 2% 45%
372 2% 43%
373 4% 41%
374 2% 37%
375 3% 35%
376 5% 32%
377 5% 27%
378 2% 22%
379 2% 20%
380 4% 18%
381 2% 14%
382 1.2% 11%
383 1.0% 10%
384 2% 9%
385 1.4% 7%
386 0.8% 6%
387 0.8% 5%
388 0.7% 4%
389 0.4% 4%
390 0.2% 3%
391 0.3% 3%
392 0.3% 3%
393 0.2% 2%
394 0.2% 2%
395 0.4% 2%
396 0.3% 2%
397 0.2% 1.4%
398 0.2% 1.2%
399 0.1% 1.0%
400 0.2% 0.9%
401 0.1% 0.7%
402 0.1% 0.6%
403 0.1% 0.5%
404 0% 0.4%
405 0.1% 0.4%
406 0% 0.3%
407 0% 0.2%
408 0.1% 0.2%
409 0% 0.2%
410 0% 0.1%
411 0% 0.1%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
284 0% 100%
285 0% 99.9%
286 0% 99.9%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0.1% 99.9%
290 0% 99.8%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0.1% 99.7%
293 0.1% 99.6%
294 0% 99.5%
295 0% 99.5%
296 0.1% 99.5%
297 0.1% 99.4%
298 0.2% 99.4%
299 0% 99.2%
300 0.1% 99.2%
301 0.1% 99.1%
302 0% 99.0%
303 0.1% 99.0%
304 0.1% 98.9%
305 0.1% 98.9%
306 0% 98.8%
307 0% 98.8%
308 0.1% 98.7%
309 0.1% 98.7%
310 0.1% 98.6%
311 0.1% 98.5%
312 0% 98%
313 0.1% 98%
314 0.1% 98%
315 0.1% 98%
316 0.1% 98%
317 0.1% 98%
318 0.2% 98%
319 0.2% 98%
320 0.2% 97%
321 0.6% 97%
322 0.7% 97%
323 0.4% 96%
324 0.4% 96%
325 0.6% 95%
326 0.5% 95%
327 0.5% 94%
328 0.5% 94%
329 1.3% 93%
330 1.3% 92%
331 1.3% 91%
332 2% 89%
333 2% 87%
334 2% 86%
335 1.3% 84%
336 1.4% 83%
337 0.6% 81%
338 1.2% 81%
339 0.8% 79%
340 0.6% 79%
341 0.9% 78%
342 4% 77%
343 1.4% 73%
344 1.4% 72%
345 0.5% 71%
346 0.9% 70%
347 0.9% 69%
348 1.0% 68%
349 0.7% 67%
350 2% 66%
351 1.2% 65%
352 1.5% 64%
353 1.1% 62%
354 0.6% 61%
355 2% 60%
356 0.6% 59%
357 1.5% 58%
358 1.0% 57%
359 1.1% 56%
360 0.8% 55%
361 2% 54%
362 2% 52%
363 1.1% 50%
364 3% 49%
365 3% 45%
366 4% 43%
367 4% 38%
368 2% 35%
369 6% 32%
370 5% 27%
371 3% 22%
372 3% 19%
373 1.3% 15%
374 2% 14%
375 2% 12%
376 2% 10%
377 2% 8%
378 1.3% 6%
379 0.5% 5%
380 0.6% 5%
381 0.6% 4%
382 0.2% 3%
383 0.2% 3%
384 0.3% 3%
385 0.2% 3%
386 0.3% 2%
387 0.2% 2%
388 0.2% 2%
389 0.3% 2%
390 0.4% 2%
391 0.1% 1.1%
392 0.1% 1.0%
393 0.2% 0.9%
394 0.1% 0.7%
395 0.2% 0.6%
396 0% 0.4%
397 0.1% 0.4%
398 0.1% 0.3%
399 0.1% 0.2%
400 0% 0.2%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
281 0% 100%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0% 99.8%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.8%
288 0% 99.7%
289 0.1% 99.7%
290 0.1% 99.6%
291 0.1% 99.4%
292 0.3% 99.3%
293 0.1% 99.0%
294 0.3% 98.9%
295 0.5% 98.7%
296 0.1% 98%
297 0.2% 98%
298 0.7% 98%
299 0.4% 97%
300 0.3% 97%
301 0.3% 96%
302 0.6% 96%
303 0.8% 96%
304 0.4% 95%
305 0.9% 94%
306 0.4% 93%
307 2% 93%
308 2% 91%
309 3% 90%
310 3% 87%
311 2% 84%
312 3% 81%
313 2% 79%
314 2% 77%
315 5% 75%
316 5% 70%
317 7% 65%
318 6% 58%
319 1.3% 52%
320 3% 51%
321 4% 47%
322 2% 43%
323 2% 41%
324 2% 39%
325 1.4% 37%
326 4% 35%
327 2% 32%
328 4% 30%
329 0.7% 26%
330 0.6% 25%
331 3% 24%
332 2% 22%
333 2% 20%
334 0.9% 17%
335 0.7% 16%
336 0.6% 16%
337 0.5% 15%
338 0.2% 15%
339 1.0% 14%
340 2% 14%
341 1.4% 12%
342 1.0% 10%
343 0.8% 9%
344 0.5% 9%
345 0.3% 8%
346 0.3% 8%
347 0.8% 7%
348 0.4% 7%
349 0.7% 6%
350 1.0% 5%
351 0.3% 4%
352 0.5% 4%
353 0.8% 4%
354 0.8% 3%
355 0.4% 2%
356 0.4% 2%
357 0.3% 1.3%
358 0.1% 1.0%
359 0.1% 0.9%
360 0.1% 0.8%
361 0.1% 0.7%
362 0.1% 0.6%
363 0.1% 0.5%
364 0.1% 0.5%
365 0.1% 0.4%
366 0.1% 0.3%
367 0% 0.2%
368 0% 0.2%
369 0% 0.2%
370 0.1% 0.2%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0.1%
373 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0% 99.8%
286 0.1% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.7%
288 0.1% 99.6%
289 0.1% 99.5%
290 0.1% 99.4%
291 0.3% 99.3%
292 0.1% 99.0%
293 0.3% 99.0%
294 0.5% 98.7%
295 0.2% 98%
296 0.3% 98%
297 0.1% 98%
298 1.0% 98%
299 0.2% 97%
300 0.3% 96%
301 0.6% 96%
302 0.8% 96%
303 0.7% 95%
304 0.4% 94%
305 1.3% 94%
306 1.1% 92%
307 3% 91%
308 2% 88%
309 2% 87%
310 4% 84%
311 2% 80%
312 2% 78%
313 2% 76%
314 2% 74%
315 7% 72%
316 8% 64%
317 6% 57%
318 1.3% 51%
319 3% 50%
320 5% 47%
321 2% 42%
322 2% 40%
323 2% 38%
324 2% 36%
325 2% 34%
326 4% 32%
327 3% 29%
328 1.0% 25%
329 0.6% 24%
330 3% 24%
331 2% 21%
332 2% 19%
333 0.7% 17%
334 0.9% 16%
335 0.5% 15%
336 0.2% 15%
337 0.4% 14%
338 0.7% 14%
339 1.4% 13%
340 2% 12%
341 1.0% 10%
342 0.9% 9%
343 0.2% 8%
344 0.3% 8%
345 0.7% 8%
346 0.6% 7%
347 0.6% 6%
348 0.8% 6%
349 0.7% 5%
350 0.3% 4%
351 0.4% 4%
352 1.0% 3%
353 0.6% 2%
354 0.6% 2%
355 0.2% 1.3%
356 0.2% 1.1%
357 0.1% 0.9%
358 0.1% 0.7%
359 0.1% 0.7%
360 0% 0.6%
361 0% 0.6%
362 0.1% 0.5%
363 0% 0.4%
364 0.1% 0.4%
365 0.1% 0.3%
366 0.1% 0.2%
367 0% 0.2%
368 0% 0.2%
369 0.1% 0.1%
370 0% 0.1%
371 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
272 0% 100%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0% 99.9%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.8%
278 0% 99.8%
279 0.1% 99.8%
280 0.1% 99.7%
281 0.1% 99.6%
282 0.1% 99.6%
283 0.2% 99.5%
284 0.1% 99.4%
285 0.3% 99.2%
286 0.1% 99.0%
287 0.3% 98.9%
288 0.4% 98.6%
289 0.3% 98%
290 0.4% 98%
291 0.3% 98%
292 0.2% 97%
293 0.7% 97%
294 0.3% 96%
295 0.5% 96%
296 0.7% 96%
297 0.6% 95%
298 0.6% 94%
299 1.1% 94%
300 2% 93%
301 2% 90%
302 3% 89%
303 2% 86%
304 3% 84%
305 3% 81%
306 2% 78%
307 3% 76%
308 4% 73%
309 3% 68%
310 5% 65%
311 6% 60%
312 4% 55%
313 3% 51%
314 2% 48%
315 3% 46%
316 3% 43%
317 2% 40%
318 2% 38%
319 4% 36%
320 1.5% 33%
321 2% 31%
322 2% 29%
323 3% 27%
324 1.5% 24%
325 1.2% 23%
326 1.4% 22%
327 2% 20%
328 2% 18%
329 0.3% 16%
330 0.6% 15%
331 0.6% 15%
332 0.8% 14%
333 0.4% 13%
334 2% 13%
335 2% 11%
336 1.0% 10%
337 0.4% 9%
338 0.7% 8%
339 0.3% 8%
340 0.4% 7%
341 0.5% 7%
342 0.9% 6%
343 0.8% 6%
344 0.4% 5%
345 0.6% 4%
346 0.6% 4%
347 0.5% 3%
348 0.5% 3%
349 0.6% 2%
350 0.2% 1.5%
351 0.1% 1.2%
352 0.3% 1.1%
353 0.1% 0.8%
354 0% 0.7%
355 0.1% 0.7%
356 0% 0.6%
357 0.1% 0.5%
358 0.1% 0.5%
359 0.1% 0.4%
360 0.1% 0.3%
361 0.1% 0.3%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.2%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0.1% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
271 0% 100%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0% 99.9%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0% 99.8%
276 0% 99.8%
277 0% 99.8%
278 0.1% 99.7%
279 0.1% 99.7%
280 0.1% 99.6%
281 0.1% 99.5%
282 0.2% 99.5%
283 0.2% 99.3%
284 0.2% 99.2%
285 0.1% 98.9%
286 0.2% 98.8%
287 0.4% 98.6%
288 0.3% 98%
289 0.3% 98%
290 0.3% 98%
291 0.4% 97%
292 0.5% 97%
293 0.5% 96%
294 0.3% 96%
295 0.6% 96%
296 1.2% 95%
297 1.0% 94%
298 0.6% 93%
299 1.4% 92%
300 3% 91%
301 1.3% 87%
302 2% 86%
303 4% 84%
304 2% 80%
305 3% 78%
306 1.3% 75%
307 4% 73%
308 5% 70%
309 5% 65%
310 7% 60%
311 4% 53%
312 2% 50%
313 2% 48%
314 3% 45%
315 3% 42%
316 2% 39%
317 2% 37%
318 2% 35%
319 3% 33%
320 1.3% 30%
321 2% 28%
322 3% 26%
323 2% 24%
324 0.6% 22%
325 3% 21%
326 1.1% 19%
327 2% 18%
328 0.3% 15%
329 0.8% 15%
330 0.5% 14%
331 0.9% 14%
332 1.0% 13%
333 0.5% 12%
334 1.2% 11%
335 2% 10%
336 0.3% 8%
337 0.6% 8%
338 0.4% 8%
339 0.5% 7%
340 1.0% 7%
341 0.5% 6%
342 0.7% 5%
343 0.5% 4%
344 0.5% 4%
345 0.8% 3%
346 0.4% 3%
347 0.5% 2%
348 0.4% 2%
349 0.3% 1.3%
350 0.1% 1.0%
351 0.2% 0.9%
352 0% 0.7%
353 0.1% 0.7%
354 0% 0.6%
355 0% 0.5%
356 0% 0.5%
357 0.1% 0.5%
358 0.1% 0.3%
359 0% 0.3%
360 0% 0.2%
361 0% 0.2%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0.1% 0.1%
365 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
266 0% 100%
267 0.1% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.8%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.1% 99.7%
273 0.1% 99.7%
274 0.1% 99.6%
275 0.1% 99.5%
276 0% 99.5%
277 0.1% 99.4%
278 0% 99.3%
279 0.1% 99.3%
280 0.3% 99.2%
281 0.1% 98.9%
282 0.2% 98.8%
283 0.6% 98.5%
284 0.5% 98%
285 0.5% 97%
286 0.6% 97%
287 0.6% 96%
288 0.4% 96%
289 0.8% 95%
290 0.9% 94%
291 0.5% 94%
292 0.4% 93%
293 0.3% 93%
294 0.7% 92%
295 0.4% 92%
296 1.0% 91%
297 2% 90%
298 2% 89%
299 0.4% 87%
300 0.8% 87%
301 0.6% 86%
302 0.6% 85%
303 0.3% 85%
304 2% 84%
305 2% 82%
306 1.4% 80%
307 1.2% 78%
308 1.5% 77%
309 3% 76%
310 2% 73%
311 2% 71%
312 1.5% 69%
313 4% 67%
314 2% 64%
315 2% 62%
316 3% 60%
317 3% 57%
318 2% 54%
319 3% 52%
320 4% 49%
321 6% 45%
322 5% 40%
323 3% 35%
324 4% 32%
325 3% 27%
326 2% 24%
327 3% 22%
328 3% 19%
329 2% 16%
330 3% 14%
331 2% 11%
332 2% 10%
333 1.1% 7%
334 0.6% 6%
335 0.6% 6%
336 0.7% 5%
337 0.5% 4%
338 0.3% 4%
339 0.7% 4%
340 0.2% 3%
341 0.3% 3%
342 0.4% 2%
343 0.3% 2%
344 0.4% 2%
345 0.3% 1.4%
346 0.1% 1.1%
347 0.3% 1.0%
348 0.1% 0.8%
349 0.2% 0.6%
350 0.1% 0.5%
351 0.1% 0.4%
352 0.1% 0.4%
353 0.1% 0.3%
354 0% 0.2%
355 0% 0.2%
356 0% 0.2%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0.1%
361 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
262 0% 100%
263 0.1% 99.9%
264 0% 99.9%
265 0% 99.8%
266 0.1% 99.8%
267 0.1% 99.8%
268 0.1% 99.7%
269 0% 99.6%
270 0.1% 99.6%
271 0% 99.5%
272 0% 99.4%
273 0.1% 99.4%
274 0.1% 99.3%
275 0.1% 99.3%
276 0.2% 99.1%
277 0.2% 98.9%
278 0.6% 98.7%
279 0.6% 98%
280 1.0% 98%
281 0.4% 97%
282 0.3% 96%
283 0.7% 96%
284 0.8% 95%
285 0.6% 94%
286 0.6% 94%
287 0.7% 93%
288 0.3% 92%
289 0.2% 92%
290 0.9% 92%
291 1.0% 91%
292 2% 90%
293 1.4% 88%
294 0.7% 87%
295 0.4% 86%
296 0.2% 86%
297 0.5% 85%
298 0.9% 85%
299 0.7% 84%
300 2% 83%
301 2% 81%
302 3% 79%
303 0.6% 76%
304 1.0% 76%
305 3% 75%
306 4% 71%
307 2% 68%
308 2% 66%
309 2% 64%
310 2% 62%
311 2% 60%
312 5% 58%
313 3% 53%
314 1.3% 50%
315 6% 49%
316 8% 43%
317 7% 36%
318 2% 28%
319 2% 26%
320 2% 24%
321 2% 22%
322 4% 20%
323 2% 16%
324 2% 13%
325 3% 12%
326 1.1% 9%
327 1.3% 8%
328 0.4% 6%
329 0.7% 6%
330 0.8% 5%
331 0.6% 4%
332 0.3% 4%
333 0.2% 4%
334 1.0% 3%
335 0.1% 2%
336 0.3% 2%
337 0.2% 2%
338 0.5% 2%
339 0.3% 1.3%
340 0.1% 1.0%
341 0.3% 1.0%
342 0.1% 0.7%
343 0.1% 0.6%
344 0.1% 0.5%
345 0.1% 0.4%
346 0.1% 0.3%
347 0% 0.3%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.2%
350 0% 0.2%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
260 0% 100%
261 0% 99.9%
262 0.1% 99.9%
263 0% 99.8%
264 0% 99.8%
265 0% 99.8%
266 0.1% 99.8%
267 0.1% 99.7%
268 0.1% 99.6%
269 0.1% 99.5%
270 0.1% 99.5%
271 0.1% 99.4%
272 0.1% 99.3%
273 0.1% 99.2%
274 0.1% 99.1%
275 0.3% 99.0%
276 0.4% 98.7%
277 0.4% 98%
278 0.8% 98%
279 0.8% 97%
280 0.5% 96%
281 0.3% 96%
282 1.0% 96%
283 0.7% 95%
284 0.4% 94%
285 0.8% 93%
286 0.3% 93%
287 0.3% 92%
288 0.5% 92%
289 0.8% 91%
290 1.0% 91%
291 1.4% 90%
292 2% 88%
293 1.0% 86%
294 0.2% 86%
295 0.5% 85%
296 0.6% 85%
297 0.7% 84%
298 0.9% 84%
299 2% 83%
300 2% 80%
301 3% 78%
302 0.6% 76%
303 0.7% 75%
304 4% 74%
305 2% 70%
306 4% 68%
307 1.4% 65%
308 2% 63%
309 2% 61%
310 2% 59%
311 4% 57%
312 3% 53%
313 1.3% 49%
314 6% 48%
315 7% 42%
316 5% 35%
317 5% 30%
318 2% 25%
319 2% 23%
320 3% 21%
321 2% 19%
322 3% 16%
323 3% 13%
324 2% 10%
325 2% 9%
326 0.4% 7%
327 0.9% 7%
328 0.4% 6%
329 0.8% 5%
330 0.6% 4%
331 0.3% 4%
332 0.3% 4%
333 0.4% 3%
334 0.7% 3%
335 0.2% 2%
336 0.1% 2%
337 0.5% 2%
338 0.3% 1.3%
339 0.1% 1.1%
340 0.3% 1.0%
341 0.1% 0.7%
342 0.1% 0.6%
343 0.1% 0.4%
344 0% 0.3%
345 0.1% 0.3%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
228 0% 100%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.7%
236 0% 99.6%
237 0.2% 99.6%
238 0.1% 99.4%
239 0.2% 99.3%
240 0.1% 99.1%
241 0.1% 99.0%
242 0.4% 98.9%
243 0.3% 98%
244 0.2% 98%
245 0.2% 98%
246 0.3% 98%
247 0.2% 98%
248 0.3% 97%
249 0.2% 97%
250 0.2% 97%
251 0.6% 97%
252 0.6% 96%
253 0.5% 95%
254 1.3% 95%
255 2% 94%
256 2% 92%
257 2% 90%
258 2% 88%
259 1.3% 86%
260 3% 85%
261 3% 81%
262 5% 78%
263 6% 73%
264 2% 68%
265 4% 65%
266 4% 62%
267 3% 57%
268 3% 55%
269 1.1% 51%
270 2% 50%
271 2% 48%
272 0.8% 46%
273 1.1% 45%
274 1.0% 44%
275 1.5% 43%
276 0.6% 42%
277 2% 41%
278 0.6% 40%
279 1.1% 39%
280 1.5% 38%
281 1.2% 36%
282 2% 35%
283 0.7% 34%
284 1.0% 33%
285 0.9% 32%
286 0.9% 31%
287 0.5% 30%
288 1.4% 29%
289 1.4% 28%
290 4% 27%
291 0.9% 23%
292 0.6% 22%
293 0.8% 21%
294 1.2% 21%
295 0.6% 19%
296 1.4% 19%
297 1.3% 17%
298 2% 16%
299 2% 14%
300 2% 13%
301 1.3% 11%
302 1.3% 9%
303 1.3% 8%
304 0.5% 7%
305 0.5% 6%
306 0.5% 6%
307 0.6% 5%
308 0.4% 5%
309 0.4% 4%
310 0.7% 4%
311 0.6% 3%
312 0.2% 3%
313 0.2% 3%
314 0.2% 2%
315 0.1% 2%
316 0.1% 2%
317 0.1% 2%
318 0.1% 2%
319 0.1% 2%
320 0% 2%
321 0.1% 2%
322 0.1% 1.5%
323 0.1% 1.4%
324 0.1% 1.3%
325 0% 1.3%
326 0% 1.2%
327 0.1% 1.2%
328 0.1% 1.1%
329 0.1% 1.1%
330 0% 1.0%
331 0.1% 1.0%
332 0.1% 0.9%
333 0% 0.8%
334 0.2% 0.8%
335 0.1% 0.6%
336 0.1% 0.6%
337 0% 0.5%
338 0% 0.5%
339 0.1% 0.5%
340 0.1% 0.4%
341 0% 0.3%
342 0% 0.2%
343 0.1% 0.2%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0.1%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0.1% 99.9%
231 0% 99.8%
232 0% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.8%
234 0.1% 99.7%
235 0.1% 99.6%
236 0.1% 99.6%
237 0.1% 99.5%
238 0.1% 99.4%
239 0.3% 99.3%
240 0% 99.0%
241 0.1% 98.9%
242 0.6% 98.9%
243 0.3% 98%
244 0.1% 98%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.3% 98%
247 0.2% 97%
248 0.3% 97%
249 0.1% 97%
250 0.2% 97%
251 0.8% 96%
252 0.7% 96%
253 0.7% 95%
254 2% 94%
255 2% 93%
256 1.4% 91%
257 3% 89%
258 2% 86%
259 3% 85%
260 3% 82%
261 4% 79%
262 7% 75%
263 2% 68%
264 4% 66%
265 4% 62%
266 3% 58%
267 4% 55%
268 0.9% 51%
269 2% 50%
270 2% 48%
271 0.9% 46%
272 0.8% 45%
273 1.3% 44%
274 1.2% 43%
275 1.3% 42%
276 1.4% 40%
277 0.5% 39%
278 1.1% 39%
279 2% 37%
280 0.5% 36%
281 2% 35%
282 1.1% 33%
283 0.3% 32%
284 2% 32%
285 0.5% 30%
286 0.5% 29%
287 1.3% 29%
288 2% 27%
289 1.2% 25%
290 2% 24%
291 1.0% 21%
292 0.9% 20%
293 0.8% 20%
294 1.1% 19%
295 1.1% 18%
296 2% 17%
297 2% 14%
298 0.9% 13%
299 2% 12%
300 2% 10%
301 0.8% 8%
302 0.7% 7%
303 1.2% 6%
304 0.4% 5%
305 0.3% 5%
306 0.2% 5%
307 0.4% 4%
308 0.4% 4%
309 0.9% 4%
310 0.2% 3%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.2% 2%
313 0.1% 2%
314 0.1% 2%
315 0.2% 2%
316 0.1% 2%
317 0.1% 2%
318 0.1% 2%
319 0.1% 1.5%
320 0% 1.4%
321 0.1% 1.3%
322 0% 1.3%
323 0.1% 1.2%
324 0% 1.2%
325 0% 1.1%
326 0% 1.1%
327 0.1% 1.1%
328 0.1% 1.0%
329 0.1% 0.9%
330 0.1% 0.8%
331 0% 0.7%
332 0.2% 0.7%
333 0% 0.6%
334 0.1% 0.5%
335 0.1% 0.5%
336 0.1% 0.4%
337 0% 0.3%
338 0% 0.2%
339 0% 0.2%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0.1% 0.2%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
219 0% 100%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.8%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.7%
228 0% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.6%
230 0.1% 99.5%
231 0.1% 99.4%
232 0.2% 99.3%
233 0.1% 99.1%
234 0.2% 99.0%
235 0.2% 98.8%
236 0.3% 98.6%
237 0.4% 98%
238 0.2% 98%
239 0.2% 98%
240 0.3% 98%
241 0.3% 97%
242 0.2% 97%
243 0.4% 97%
244 0.7% 96%
245 0.8% 96%
246 0.8% 95%
247 1.4% 94%
248 2% 93%
249 1.0% 91%
250 1.2% 90%
251 2% 89%
252 4% 86%
253 2% 82%
254 2% 80%
255 5% 78%
256 5% 73%
257 3% 68%
258 2% 65%
259 4% 63%
260 2% 59%
261 2% 57%
262 2% 55%
263 4% 53%
264 1.2% 49%
265 2% 48%
266 0.9% 46%
267 0.7% 45%
268 1.0% 44%
269 1.2% 43%
270 1.4% 42%
271 0.8% 41%
272 2% 40%
273 2% 38%
274 0.9% 36%
275 0.8% 35%
276 0.6% 34%
277 2% 34%
278 0.9% 32%
279 1.2% 31%
280 0.7% 30%
281 0.5% 29%
282 1.2% 29%
283 4% 27%
284 2% 24%
285 0.6% 22%
286 1.3% 21%
287 0.4% 20%
288 0.7% 19%
289 0.9% 19%
290 0.8% 18%
291 2% 17%
292 1.3% 15%
293 1.0% 14%
294 2% 13%
295 2% 11%
296 0.9% 9%
297 0.6% 8%
298 0.9% 7%
299 0.4% 6%
300 0.7% 6%
301 0.4% 5%
302 0.3% 5%
303 0.4% 5%
304 0.4% 4%
305 0.8% 4%
306 0.5% 3%
307 0.2% 2%
308 0.2% 2%
309 0.1% 2%
310 0.1% 2%
311 0.1% 2%
312 0.2% 2%
313 0.1% 2%
314 0% 2%
315 0.1% 1.5%
316 0% 1.4%
317 0.1% 1.4%
318 0.1% 1.3%
319 0.1% 1.2%
320 0.1% 1.2%
321 0% 1.1%
322 0.1% 1.1%
323 0.1% 1.0%
324 0% 0.9%
325 0% 0.9%
326 0% 0.9%
327 0.2% 0.8%
328 0% 0.6%
329 0% 0.6%
330 0.1% 0.6%
331 0.1% 0.5%
332 0.1% 0.4%
333 0% 0.4%
334 0% 0.4%
335 0.1% 0.3%
336 0% 0.2%
337 0.1% 0.2%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0.1%
340 0% 0.1%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0.1% 99.9%
223 0% 99.8%
224 0% 99.8%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0% 99.7%
228 0.1% 99.6%
229 0.1% 99.6%
230 0.1% 99.4%
231 0.1% 99.3%
232 0.2% 99.3%
233 0.2% 99.0%
234 0.1% 98.9%
235 0.3% 98.7%
236 0.2% 98%
237 0.3% 98%
238 0.3% 98%
239 0.3% 98%
240 0.3% 97%
241 0.2% 97%
242 0.3% 97%
243 0.5% 97%
244 0.7% 96%
245 1.1% 95%
246 1.0% 94%
247 2% 93%
248 2% 92%
249 0.9% 90%
250 2% 89%
251 3% 87%
252 3% 84%
253 2% 80%
254 4% 78%
255 5% 74%
256 3% 69%
257 4% 66%
258 3% 62%
259 2% 59%
260 3% 57%
261 2% 54%
262 3% 52%
263 2% 49%
264 2% 48%
265 1.2% 46%
266 0.6% 45%
267 0.9% 44%
268 2% 43%
269 2% 42%
270 1.4% 40%
271 2% 39%
272 1.2% 37%
273 0.5% 36%
274 1.5% 35%
275 0.7% 34%
276 2% 33%
277 0.8% 31%
278 0.9% 30%
279 1.2% 29%
280 1.2% 28%
281 2% 27%
282 1.4% 25%
283 2% 24%
284 2% 22%
285 0.7% 20%
286 0.9% 20%
287 1.1% 19%
288 0.7% 18%
289 0.9% 17%
290 2% 16%
291 2% 14%
292 1.2% 12%
293 2% 11%
294 2% 9%
295 0.5% 8%
296 0.8% 7%
297 1.1% 6%
298 0.6% 5%
299 0.1% 5%
300 0.4% 5%
301 0.2% 4%
302 0.3% 4%
303 0.4% 4%
304 1.0% 3%
305 0.1% 2%
306 0.1% 2%
307 0.1% 2%
308 0.1% 2%
309 0.1% 2%
310 0.1% 2%
311 0.1% 2%
312 0.1% 2%
313 0% 1.4%
314 0.1% 1.4%
315 0.1% 1.3%
316 0.1% 1.3%
317 0.1% 1.2%
318 0.1% 1.1%
319 0% 1.0%
320 0.1% 1.0%
321 0.1% 0.9%
322 0% 0.9%
323 0% 0.8%
324 0% 0.8%
325 0.2% 0.7%
326 0% 0.6%
327 0% 0.5%
328 0.1% 0.5%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0.1% 0.4%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.2%
335 0.1% 0.2%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations