Opinion Poll by Survation for Mail on Sunday, 3 June 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
41.8% |
37.7–42.1% |
37.1–42.7% |
36.5–43.3% |
35.5–44.4% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
41.0% |
36.9–41.4% |
36.3–42.0% |
35.8–42.5% |
34.8–43.6% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
8.0% |
6.5–8.9% |
6.2–9.3% |
6.0–9.6% |
5.5–10.3% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
4.8% |
3.8–5.7% |
3.6–6.0% |
3.4–6.3% |
3.0–6.9% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
3.8% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.7–4.9% |
2.5–5.2% |
2.2–5.7% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.2–1.3% |
0.1–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
252 |
0% |
100% |
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
257 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
258 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
259 |
0% |
99.7% |
260 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
261 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
262 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
263 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
264 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
265 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
266 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
267 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
268 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
269 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
270 |
0.3% |
98% |
271 |
0.3% |
98% |
272 |
0.3% |
98% |
273 |
0.4% |
98% |
274 |
0.4% |
97% |
275 |
0.5% |
97% |
276 |
1.2% |
96% |
277 |
1.3% |
95% |
278 |
0.7% |
94% |
279 |
0.6% |
93% |
280 |
0.4% |
92% |
281 |
0.6% |
92% |
282 |
0.7% |
91% |
283 |
0.7% |
91% |
284 |
0.8% |
90% |
285 |
0.7% |
89% |
286 |
0.8% |
88% |
287 |
0.8% |
88% |
288 |
1.3% |
87% |
289 |
1.1% |
85% |
290 |
1.1% |
84% |
291 |
1.4% |
83% |
292 |
1.3% |
82% |
293 |
1.1% |
81% |
294 |
1.4% |
79% |
295 |
0.7% |
78% |
296 |
1.0% |
77% |
297 |
1.4% |
76% |
298 |
2% |
75% |
299 |
2% |
73% |
300 |
2% |
71% |
301 |
2% |
69% |
302 |
2% |
67% |
303 |
2% |
65% |
304 |
2% |
63% |
305 |
3% |
61% |
306 |
2% |
59% |
307 |
1.3% |
56% |
308 |
3% |
55% |
309 |
1.2% |
52% |
310 |
3% |
51% |
311 |
2% |
48% |
312 |
3% |
46% |
313 |
4% |
44% |
314 |
3% |
40% |
315 |
4% |
37% |
316 |
4% |
33% |
317 |
5% |
28% |
318 |
2% |
23% |
319 |
3% |
21% |
320 |
3% |
18% |
321 |
2% |
15% |
322 |
1.2% |
13% |
323 |
1.0% |
12% |
324 |
1.3% |
11% |
325 |
2% |
9% |
326 |
1.3% |
8% |
327 |
1.2% |
6% |
328 |
0.6% |
5% |
329 |
0.6% |
4% |
330 |
0.4% |
4% |
331 |
0.4% |
3% |
332 |
0.4% |
3% |
333 |
0.3% |
3% |
334 |
0.3% |
2% |
335 |
0.2% |
2% |
336 |
0.3% |
2% |
337 |
0.2% |
2% |
338 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
339 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
340 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
341 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
342 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
343 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
344 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
345 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
346 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
347 |
0% |
0.3% |
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
349 |
0% |
0.2% |
350 |
0% |
0.2% |
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
355 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
220 |
0% |
100% |
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
226 |
0% |
99.8% |
227 |
0% |
99.8% |
228 |
0% |
99.8% |
229 |
0% |
99.8% |
230 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
231 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
232 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
233 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
234 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
235 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
236 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
237 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
238 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
239 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
240 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
241 |
0.2% |
98% |
242 |
0.2% |
98% |
243 |
0.2% |
98% |
244 |
0.2% |
98% |
245 |
0.3% |
97% |
246 |
0.5% |
97% |
247 |
0.6% |
97% |
248 |
0.5% |
96% |
249 |
1.1% |
96% |
250 |
1.0% |
94% |
251 |
1.0% |
93% |
252 |
1.3% |
92% |
253 |
2% |
91% |
254 |
1.3% |
89% |
255 |
2% |
88% |
256 |
1.5% |
87% |
257 |
2% |
85% |
258 |
1.1% |
83% |
259 |
1.5% |
82% |
260 |
2% |
80% |
261 |
2% |
78% |
262 |
2% |
76% |
263 |
2% |
75% |
264 |
2% |
73% |
265 |
2% |
72% |
266 |
1.0% |
70% |
267 |
2% |
69% |
268 |
2% |
67% |
269 |
2% |
65% |
270 |
2% |
63% |
271 |
2% |
61% |
272 |
2% |
60% |
273 |
1.3% |
58% |
274 |
2% |
57% |
275 |
1.0% |
55% |
276 |
2% |
54% |
277 |
2% |
52% |
278 |
0.8% |
51% |
279 |
1.2% |
50% |
280 |
1.2% |
49% |
281 |
2% |
47% |
282 |
2% |
46% |
283 |
2% |
44% |
284 |
2% |
42% |
285 |
2% |
40% |
286 |
2% |
38% |
287 |
2% |
36% |
288 |
1.2% |
35% |
289 |
1.1% |
33% |
290 |
1.3% |
32% |
291 |
2% |
31% |
292 |
2% |
29% |
293 |
2% |
28% |
294 |
1.0% |
26% |
295 |
1.2% |
25% |
296 |
1.4% |
24% |
297 |
1.4% |
22% |
298 |
0.8% |
21% |
299 |
1.1% |
20% |
300 |
1.5% |
19% |
301 |
0.7% |
17% |
302 |
1.1% |
17% |
303 |
0.8% |
16% |
304 |
1.0% |
15% |
305 |
0.7% |
14% |
306 |
0.8% |
13% |
307 |
0.8% |
13% |
308 |
0.5% |
12% |
309 |
0.7% |
11% |
310 |
0.5% |
10% |
311 |
0.5% |
10% |
312 |
0.7% |
9% |
313 |
0.5% |
9% |
314 |
0.7% |
8% |
315 |
0.3% |
8% |
316 |
0.5% |
7% |
317 |
0.7% |
7% |
318 |
0.4% |
6% |
319 |
0.8% |
6% |
320 |
0.4% |
5% |
321 |
0.5% |
5% |
322 |
0.3% |
4% |
323 |
0.4% |
4% |
324 |
0.3% |
3% |
325 |
0.4% |
3% |
326 |
0.3% |
3% |
327 |
0.3% |
2% |
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
329 |
0.2% |
2% |
330 |
0.2% |
2% |
331 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
332 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
333 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
334 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
335 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
336 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
337 |
0% |
0.5% |
338 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
339 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
340 |
0% |
0.3% |
341 |
0% |
0.3% |
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
343 |
0% |
0.2% |
344 |
0% |
0.2% |
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
349 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
1 |
2% |
99.7% |
2 |
6% |
97% |
3 |
9% |
92% |
4 |
9% |
83% |
5 |
8% |
74% |
6 |
9% |
66% |
7 |
6% |
57% |
8 |
6% |
51% |
9 |
7% |
44% |
10 |
6% |
37% |
11 |
5% |
31% |
12 |
5% |
27% |
13 |
5% |
22% |
14 |
4% |
17% |
15 |
3% |
13% |
16 |
2% |
10% |
17 |
1.5% |
8% |
18 |
2% |
6% |
19 |
0.9% |
4% |
20 |
1.2% |
4% |
21 |
0.6% |
2% |
22 |
0.6% |
2% |
23 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
24 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
25 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
26 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
28 |
0% |
0.1% |
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
30 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
100% |
100% |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
1 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
2 |
1.0% |
99.0% |
3 |
2% |
98% |
4 |
2% |
96% |
5 |
2% |
95% |
6 |
2% |
93% |
7 |
2% |
91% |
8 |
2% |
89% |
9 |
2% |
87% |
10 |
1.1% |
86% |
11 |
2% |
85% |
12 |
1.4% |
83% |
13 |
1.0% |
81% |
14 |
1.5% |
80% |
15 |
0.9% |
79% |
16 |
1.1% |
78% |
17 |
2% |
77% |
18 |
1.0% |
76% |
19 |
1.4% |
75% |
20 |
1.1% |
73% |
21 |
1.4% |
72% |
22 |
1.0% |
71% |
23 |
1.2% |
70% |
24 |
1.3% |
68% |
25 |
1.1% |
67% |
26 |
1.3% |
66% |
27 |
1.0% |
65% |
28 |
2% |
64% |
29 |
1.2% |
62% |
30 |
2% |
61% |
31 |
1.4% |
59% |
32 |
1.2% |
58% |
33 |
1.4% |
56% |
34 |
2% |
55% |
35 |
2% |
53% |
36 |
2% |
51% |
37 |
0.7% |
49% |
38 |
1.3% |
48% |
39 |
2% |
47% |
40 |
2% |
45% |
41 |
1.3% |
44% |
42 |
1.1% |
42% |
43 |
0.8% |
41% |
44 |
1.1% |
41% |
45 |
2% |
39% |
46 |
1.2% |
38% |
47 |
2% |
36% |
48 |
3% |
34% |
49 |
4% |
31% |
50 |
5% |
28% |
51 |
6% |
22% |
52 |
4% |
16% |
53 |
2% |
12% |
54 |
3% |
10% |
55 |
3% |
6% |
56 |
1.5% |
4% |
57 |
1.2% |
2% |
58 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
59 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
16% |
100% |
1 |
19% |
84% |
2 |
6% |
65% |
3 |
26% |
58% |
4 |
9% |
32% |
5 |
21% |
23% |
6 |
0.4% |
2% |
7 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
9 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
344 |
310–372 |
299–377 |
293–381 |
280–393 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
341 |
307–369 |
297–374 |
290–379 |
278–390 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
321 |
307–348 |
303–354 |
298–358 |
287–369 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
318 |
304–345 |
300–352 |
295–356 |
284–367 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
314 |
298–338 |
294–346 |
289–350 |
278–360 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
311 |
295–336 |
291–343 |
286–347 |
275–358 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
317 |
293–333 |
285–337 |
281–342 |
271–353 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
290 |
262–324 |
257–334 |
252–341 |
241–353 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
287 |
259–321 |
254–332 |
250–338 |
238–351 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
313 |
286–327 |
279–331 |
275–336 |
264–347 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
310 |
283–324 |
277–328 |
273–333 |
262–344 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
281 |
256–313 |
252–322 |
248–329 |
236–340 |
Labour Party |
232 |
278 |
253–310 |
249–320 |
244–326 |
233–337 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
267 |
0% |
100% |
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
271 |
0% |
99.9% |
272 |
0% |
99.9% |
273 |
0% |
99.8% |
274 |
0% |
99.8% |
275 |
0% |
99.8% |
276 |
0% |
99.7% |
277 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
278 |
0% |
99.7% |
279 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
280 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
281 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
282 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
283 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
284 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
285 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
286 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
287 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
288 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
289 |
0.2% |
98% |
290 |
0.2% |
98% |
291 |
0.2% |
98% |
292 |
0.2% |
98% |
293 |
0.2% |
98% |
294 |
0.3% |
97% |
295 |
0.3% |
97% |
296 |
0.4% |
97% |
297 |
0.4% |
96% |
298 |
0.7% |
96% |
299 |
0.4% |
95% |
300 |
0.4% |
95% |
301 |
0.5% |
94% |
302 |
0.5% |
94% |
303 |
0.3% |
93% |
304 |
0.7% |
93% |
305 |
0.4% |
92% |
306 |
0.6% |
92% |
307 |
0.4% |
91% |
308 |
0.4% |
91% |
309 |
0.5% |
91% |
310 |
0.5% |
90% |
311 |
0.4% |
90% |
312 |
0.6% |
89% |
313 |
0.7% |
88% |
314 |
0.7% |
88% |
315 |
0.8% |
87% |
316 |
0.9% |
86% |
317 |
0.8% |
85% |
318 |
0.6% |
85% |
319 |
1.2% |
84% |
320 |
1.4% |
83% |
321 |
1.1% |
81% |
322 |
1.0% |
80% |
323 |
1.0% |
79% |
324 |
1.0% |
78% |
325 |
1.4% |
77% |
326 |
1.5% |
76% |
327 |
1.0% |
74% |
328 |
1.2% |
73% |
329 |
1.3% |
72% |
330 |
1.3% |
71% |
331 |
1.4% |
70% |
332 |
0.9% |
68% |
333 |
1.4% |
67% |
334 |
2% |
66% |
335 |
2% |
64% |
336 |
1.3% |
63% |
337 |
1.4% |
62% |
338 |
1.5% |
60% |
339 |
1.4% |
59% |
340 |
2% |
57% |
341 |
2% |
55% |
342 |
1.3% |
53% |
343 |
1.3% |
52% |
344 |
1.3% |
51% |
345 |
2% |
49% |
346 |
1.0% |
48% |
347 |
1.1% |
47% |
348 |
1.4% |
46% |
349 |
1.4% |
44% |
350 |
0.7% |
43% |
351 |
2% |
42% |
352 |
1.2% |
40% |
353 |
2% |
39% |
354 |
1.4% |
38% |
355 |
0.8% |
36% |
356 |
2% |
35% |
357 |
1.4% |
33% |
358 |
2% |
32% |
359 |
2% |
30% |
360 |
2% |
28% |
361 |
1.3% |
27% |
362 |
2% |
25% |
363 |
1.1% |
24% |
364 |
1.5% |
22% |
365 |
2% |
21% |
366 |
1.3% |
19% |
367 |
1.4% |
18% |
368 |
1.2% |
16% |
369 |
2% |
15% |
370 |
2% |
14% |
371 |
1.3% |
12% |
372 |
1.2% |
11% |
373 |
1.2% |
10% |
374 |
1.0% |
8% |
375 |
1.1% |
7% |
376 |
0.7% |
6% |
377 |
0.7% |
6% |
378 |
0.8% |
5% |
379 |
0.6% |
4% |
380 |
0.6% |
3% |
381 |
0.4% |
3% |
382 |
0.4% |
2% |
383 |
0.2% |
2% |
384 |
0.2% |
2% |
385 |
0.3% |
2% |
386 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
387 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
388 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
389 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
390 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
391 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
392 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
393 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
394 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
395 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
396 |
0% |
0.3% |
397 |
0% |
0.3% |
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
399 |
0% |
0.2% |
400 |
0% |
0.2% |
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
405 |
0% |
0.1% |
406 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
264 |
0% |
100% |
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
271 |
0% |
99.8% |
272 |
0% |
99.8% |
273 |
0% |
99.8% |
274 |
0% |
99.7% |
275 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
276 |
0% |
99.6% |
277 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
278 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
279 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
280 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
281 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
282 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
283 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
284 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
285 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
286 |
0.2% |
98% |
287 |
0.2% |
98% |
288 |
0.2% |
98% |
289 |
0.3% |
98% |
290 |
0.2% |
98% |
291 |
0.3% |
97% |
292 |
0.3% |
97% |
293 |
0.3% |
97% |
294 |
0.4% |
97% |
295 |
0.4% |
96% |
296 |
0.6% |
96% |
297 |
0.7% |
95% |
298 |
0.3% |
95% |
299 |
0.3% |
94% |
300 |
0.5% |
94% |
301 |
0.5% |
93% |
302 |
0.6% |
93% |
303 |
0.5% |
92% |
304 |
0.5% |
92% |
305 |
0.6% |
91% |
306 |
0.4% |
91% |
307 |
0.4% |
90% |
308 |
0.3% |
90% |
309 |
0.5% |
89% |
310 |
0.7% |
89% |
311 |
0.8% |
88% |
312 |
0.7% |
87% |
313 |
0.8% |
87% |
314 |
0.9% |
86% |
315 |
0.9% |
85% |
316 |
1.0% |
84% |
317 |
1.2% |
83% |
318 |
1.1% |
82% |
319 |
0.9% |
81% |
320 |
1.1% |
80% |
321 |
1.2% |
79% |
322 |
1.0% |
78% |
323 |
2% |
76% |
324 |
0.9% |
75% |
325 |
1.0% |
74% |
326 |
2% |
73% |
327 |
1.3% |
72% |
328 |
1.5% |
70% |
329 |
1.4% |
69% |
330 |
1.0% |
67% |
331 |
1.4% |
66% |
332 |
1.2% |
65% |
333 |
1.5% |
64% |
334 |
2% |
62% |
335 |
2% |
61% |
336 |
1.1% |
59% |
337 |
1.5% |
58% |
338 |
2% |
57% |
339 |
1.3% |
55% |
340 |
2% |
53% |
341 |
2% |
51% |
342 |
1.5% |
50% |
343 |
1.3% |
48% |
344 |
1.1% |
47% |
345 |
1.5% |
46% |
346 |
1.1% |
45% |
347 |
1.2% |
43% |
348 |
2% |
42% |
349 |
1.0% |
41% |
350 |
2% |
40% |
351 |
1.1% |
38% |
352 |
1.2% |
37% |
353 |
2% |
36% |
354 |
2% |
34% |
355 |
2% |
33% |
356 |
2% |
30% |
357 |
1.3% |
28% |
358 |
2% |
27% |
359 |
2% |
25% |
360 |
1.0% |
24% |
361 |
2% |
23% |
362 |
2% |
21% |
363 |
1.2% |
19% |
364 |
1.4% |
18% |
365 |
1.4% |
17% |
366 |
2% |
15% |
367 |
2% |
14% |
368 |
1.3% |
12% |
369 |
1.1% |
11% |
370 |
1.0% |
10% |
371 |
1.4% |
9% |
372 |
1.1% |
7% |
373 |
0.7% |
6% |
374 |
0.7% |
5% |
375 |
0.6% |
5% |
376 |
0.7% |
4% |
377 |
0.6% |
3% |
378 |
0.3% |
3% |
379 |
0.5% |
3% |
380 |
0.3% |
2% |
381 |
0.2% |
2% |
382 |
0.2% |
2% |
383 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
384 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
385 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
386 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
387 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
388 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
389 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
390 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
391 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
392 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
393 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
394 |
0% |
0.3% |
395 |
0% |
0.2% |
396 |
0% |
0.2% |
397 |
0% |
0.2% |
398 |
0% |
0.1% |
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
403 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
277 |
0% |
100% |
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
282 |
0% |
99.8% |
283 |
0% |
99.8% |
284 |
0% |
99.8% |
285 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
286 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
287 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
288 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
289 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
290 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
291 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
292 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
293 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
294 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
295 |
0.3% |
98% |
296 |
0.2% |
98% |
297 |
0.3% |
98% |
298 |
0.3% |
98% |
299 |
0.4% |
97% |
300 |
0.4% |
97% |
301 |
0.4% |
97% |
302 |
0.6% |
96% |
303 |
0.6% |
96% |
304 |
1.2% |
95% |
305 |
1.3% |
94% |
306 |
2% |
92% |
307 |
1.3% |
91% |
308 |
1.0% |
89% |
309 |
1.2% |
88% |
310 |
2% |
87% |
311 |
3% |
85% |
312 |
3% |
82% |
313 |
2% |
79% |
314 |
5% |
77% |
315 |
4% |
72% |
316 |
4% |
67% |
317 |
3% |
63% |
318 |
4% |
60% |
319 |
3% |
56% |
320 |
2% |
54% |
321 |
3% |
52% |
322 |
1.2% |
49% |
323 |
3% |
48% |
324 |
1.3% |
45% |
325 |
2% |
44% |
326 |
3% |
41% |
327 |
2% |
39% |
328 |
2% |
37% |
329 |
2% |
35% |
330 |
2% |
33% |
331 |
2% |
31% |
332 |
2% |
29% |
333 |
2% |
27% |
334 |
1.4% |
25% |
335 |
1.0% |
24% |
336 |
0.7% |
23% |
337 |
1.4% |
22% |
338 |
1.1% |
21% |
339 |
1.3% |
19% |
340 |
1.4% |
18% |
341 |
1.1% |
17% |
342 |
1.1% |
16% |
343 |
1.3% |
15% |
344 |
0.8% |
13% |
345 |
0.8% |
12% |
346 |
0.7% |
12% |
347 |
0.8% |
11% |
348 |
0.7% |
10% |
349 |
0.7% |
9% |
350 |
0.6% |
9% |
351 |
0.4% |
8% |
352 |
0.6% |
8% |
353 |
0.7% |
7% |
354 |
1.3% |
6% |
355 |
1.2% |
5% |
356 |
0.5% |
4% |
357 |
0.4% |
3% |
358 |
0.4% |
3% |
359 |
0.3% |
2% |
360 |
0.3% |
2% |
361 |
0.3% |
2% |
362 |
0.2% |
2% |
363 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
364 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
365 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
366 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
367 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
368 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
369 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
370 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
371 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
372 |
0% |
0.3% |
373 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
374 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
375 |
0% |
0.2% |
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
378 |
0% |
0.1% |
379 |
0% |
0.1% |
380 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
274 |
0% |
100% |
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
277 |
0% |
99.9% |
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
279 |
0% |
99.8% |
280 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
281 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
282 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
283 |
0% |
99.6% |
284 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
285 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
286 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
287 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
288 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
289 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
290 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
291 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
292 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
293 |
0.3% |
98% |
294 |
0.4% |
98% |
295 |
0.3% |
98% |
296 |
0.4% |
97% |
297 |
0.4% |
97% |
298 |
0.4% |
97% |
299 |
0.5% |
96% |
300 |
0.8% |
96% |
301 |
1.3% |
95% |
302 |
2% |
94% |
303 |
1.2% |
92% |
304 |
1.4% |
91% |
305 |
1.3% |
89% |
306 |
2% |
88% |
307 |
1.4% |
86% |
308 |
2% |
85% |
309 |
3% |
83% |
310 |
3% |
80% |
311 |
5% |
77% |
312 |
3% |
73% |
313 |
4% |
69% |
314 |
4% |
65% |
315 |
4% |
61% |
316 |
4% |
58% |
317 |
1.3% |
54% |
318 |
3% |
53% |
319 |
1.3% |
50% |
320 |
3% |
49% |
321 |
1.3% |
46% |
322 |
3% |
45% |
323 |
1.5% |
42% |
324 |
2% |
40% |
325 |
2% |
38% |
326 |
2% |
36% |
327 |
2% |
35% |
328 |
3% |
32% |
329 |
2% |
30% |
330 |
2% |
28% |
331 |
1.5% |
25% |
332 |
0.9% |
24% |
333 |
0.8% |
23% |
334 |
0.9% |
22% |
335 |
1.0% |
21% |
336 |
1.4% |
20% |
337 |
1.3% |
19% |
338 |
0.7% |
18% |
339 |
1.2% |
17% |
340 |
1.0% |
16% |
341 |
1.2% |
15% |
342 |
2% |
13% |
343 |
0.8% |
12% |
344 |
0.7% |
11% |
345 |
0.5% |
10% |
346 |
0.7% |
10% |
347 |
0.5% |
9% |
348 |
0.5% |
8% |
349 |
0.7% |
8% |
350 |
0.7% |
7% |
351 |
1.0% |
6% |
352 |
0.7% |
6% |
353 |
0.6% |
5% |
354 |
1.0% |
4% |
355 |
0.5% |
3% |
356 |
0.4% |
3% |
357 |
0.4% |
2% |
358 |
0.3% |
2% |
359 |
0.2% |
2% |
360 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
361 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
362 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
363 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
364 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
365 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
366 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
367 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
368 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
369 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
370 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
371 |
0% |
0.3% |
372 |
0% |
0.2% |
373 |
0% |
0.2% |
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
378 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
267 |
0% |
100% |
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
271 |
0% |
99.9% |
272 |
0% |
99.8% |
273 |
0% |
99.8% |
274 |
0% |
99.8% |
275 |
0% |
99.8% |
276 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
277 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
278 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
279 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
280 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
281 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
282 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
283 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
284 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
285 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
286 |
0.2% |
98% |
287 |
0.3% |
98% |
288 |
0.2% |
98% |
289 |
0.2% |
98% |
290 |
0.5% |
97% |
291 |
0.6% |
97% |
292 |
0.6% |
96% |
293 |
0.8% |
96% |
294 |
1.1% |
95% |
295 |
1.1% |
94% |
296 |
1.0% |
93% |
297 |
1.1% |
92% |
298 |
1.4% |
91% |
299 |
2% |
89% |
300 |
1.4% |
87% |
301 |
2% |
86% |
302 |
2% |
84% |
303 |
2% |
83% |
304 |
3% |
80% |
305 |
4% |
77% |
306 |
3% |
74% |
307 |
3% |
71% |
308 |
4% |
68% |
309 |
3% |
64% |
310 |
3% |
61% |
311 |
3% |
58% |
312 |
2% |
55% |
313 |
2% |
53% |
314 |
2% |
51% |
315 |
3% |
49% |
316 |
3% |
47% |
317 |
5% |
44% |
318 |
2% |
38% |
319 |
2% |
36% |
320 |
0.6% |
34% |
321 |
0.7% |
33% |
322 |
0.9% |
33% |
323 |
2% |
32% |
324 |
2% |
30% |
325 |
2% |
28% |
326 |
2% |
25% |
327 |
3% |
24% |
328 |
2% |
21% |
329 |
0.5% |
19% |
330 |
0.5% |
19% |
331 |
0.8% |
18% |
332 |
0.6% |
17% |
333 |
0.8% |
17% |
334 |
1.0% |
16% |
335 |
2% |
15% |
336 |
2% |
13% |
337 |
1.1% |
11% |
338 |
0.6% |
10% |
339 |
0.5% |
10% |
340 |
0.5% |
9% |
341 |
0.3% |
9% |
342 |
0.2% |
8% |
343 |
0.4% |
8% |
344 |
1.4% |
8% |
345 |
1.1% |
6% |
346 |
0.9% |
5% |
347 |
0.7% |
4% |
348 |
0.6% |
4% |
349 |
0.4% |
3% |
350 |
0.5% |
3% |
351 |
0.5% |
2% |
352 |
0.3% |
2% |
353 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
354 |
0% |
1.2% |
355 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
356 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
357 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
358 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
359 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
360 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
361 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
362 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
363 |
0% |
0.3% |
364 |
0% |
0.2% |
365 |
0% |
0.2% |
366 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
368 |
0% |
0.1% |
369 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
264 |
0% |
100% |
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
270 |
0% |
99.8% |
271 |
0% |
99.8% |
272 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
273 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
274 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
275 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
276 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
277 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
278 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
279 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
280 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
281 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
282 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
283 |
0.2% |
98% |
284 |
0.2% |
98% |
285 |
0.2% |
98% |
286 |
0.3% |
98% |
287 |
0.5% |
97% |
288 |
0.4% |
97% |
289 |
0.5% |
97% |
290 |
0.8% |
96% |
291 |
1.1% |
95% |
292 |
1.0% |
94% |
293 |
0.9% |
93% |
294 |
1.3% |
92% |
295 |
2% |
91% |
296 |
2% |
89% |
297 |
1.2% |
88% |
298 |
2% |
86% |
299 |
2% |
85% |
300 |
3% |
83% |
301 |
2% |
80% |
302 |
3% |
78% |
303 |
3% |
75% |
304 |
3% |
72% |
305 |
3% |
69% |
306 |
3% |
65% |
307 |
4% |
63% |
308 |
3% |
59% |
309 |
3% |
56% |
310 |
2% |
53% |
311 |
2% |
51% |
312 |
3% |
49% |
313 |
2% |
46% |
314 |
3% |
44% |
315 |
2% |
41% |
316 |
3% |
39% |
317 |
1.3% |
36% |
318 |
2% |
35% |
319 |
1.1% |
33% |
320 |
2% |
32% |
321 |
2% |
30% |
322 |
2% |
28% |
323 |
2% |
26% |
324 |
2% |
24% |
325 |
2% |
22% |
326 |
0.7% |
20% |
327 |
1.3% |
20% |
328 |
0.6% |
18% |
329 |
0.7% |
18% |
330 |
0.8% |
17% |
331 |
0.9% |
16% |
332 |
1.2% |
15% |
333 |
1.1% |
14% |
334 |
1.3% |
13% |
335 |
1.3% |
12% |
336 |
1.0% |
10% |
337 |
0.5% |
9% |
338 |
0.4% |
9% |
339 |
0.6% |
8% |
340 |
0.6% |
8% |
341 |
0.8% |
7% |
342 |
0.7% |
6% |
343 |
1.0% |
6% |
344 |
0.6% |
5% |
345 |
0.7% |
4% |
346 |
0.7% |
3% |
347 |
0.5% |
3% |
348 |
0.4% |
2% |
349 |
0.3% |
2% |
350 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
351 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
352 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
353 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
354 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
355 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
356 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
357 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
358 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
359 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
360 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
361 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
362 |
0% |
0.2% |
363 |
0% |
0.2% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
366 |
0% |
0.1% |
367 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
263 |
0% |
100% |
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
265 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
266 |
0% |
99.8% |
267 |
0% |
99.8% |
268 |
0% |
99.8% |
269 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
270 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
271 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
272 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
273 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
274 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
275 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
276 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
277 |
0% |
98.9% |
278 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
279 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
280 |
0.5% |
98% |
281 |
0.5% |
98% |
282 |
0.4% |
97% |
283 |
0.6% |
97% |
284 |
0.7% |
96% |
285 |
0.9% |
96% |
286 |
1.1% |
95% |
287 |
1.4% |
94% |
288 |
0.4% |
92% |
289 |
0.2% |
92% |
290 |
0.3% |
92% |
291 |
0.5% |
91% |
292 |
0.5% |
91% |
293 |
0.6% |
90% |
294 |
1.1% |
90% |
295 |
2% |
89% |
296 |
2% |
87% |
297 |
1.0% |
85% |
298 |
0.8% |
84% |
299 |
0.6% |
83% |
300 |
0.8% |
83% |
301 |
0.5% |
82% |
302 |
0.5% |
81% |
303 |
2% |
81% |
304 |
3% |
79% |
305 |
2% |
76% |
306 |
2% |
75% |
307 |
2% |
72% |
308 |
2% |
70% |
309 |
0.9% |
68% |
310 |
0.7% |
67% |
311 |
0.6% |
67% |
312 |
2% |
66% |
313 |
2% |
64% |
314 |
5% |
62% |
315 |
3% |
56% |
316 |
3% |
53% |
317 |
2% |
51% |
318 |
2% |
49% |
319 |
2% |
47% |
320 |
3% |
45% |
321 |
3% |
42% |
322 |
3% |
39% |
323 |
4% |
36% |
324 |
3% |
32% |
325 |
3% |
29% |
326 |
4% |
26% |
327 |
3% |
23% |
328 |
2% |
20% |
329 |
2% |
17% |
330 |
2% |
16% |
331 |
1.4% |
14% |
332 |
2% |
13% |
333 |
1.4% |
11% |
334 |
1.1% |
9% |
335 |
1.0% |
8% |
336 |
1.1% |
7% |
337 |
1.1% |
6% |
338 |
0.8% |
5% |
339 |
0.6% |
4% |
340 |
0.6% |
4% |
341 |
0.5% |
3% |
342 |
0.2% |
3% |
343 |
0.2% |
2% |
344 |
0.3% |
2% |
345 |
0.2% |
2% |
346 |
0.1% |
2% |
347 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
348 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
349 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
350 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
351 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
352 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
353 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
354 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
355 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
356 |
0% |
0.3% |
357 |
0% |
0.2% |
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
359 |
0% |
0.2% |
360 |
0% |
0.2% |
361 |
0% |
0.1% |
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
229 |
0% |
100% |
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
233 |
0% |
99.9% |
234 |
0% |
99.9% |
235 |
0% |
99.8% |
236 |
0% |
99.8% |
237 |
0% |
99.8% |
238 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
239 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
240 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
241 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
242 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
243 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
244 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
245 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
246 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
247 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
248 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
249 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
250 |
0.2% |
98% |
251 |
0.3% |
98% |
252 |
0.5% |
98% |
253 |
0.3% |
97% |
254 |
0.6% |
97% |
255 |
0.7% |
97% |
256 |
0.6% |
96% |
257 |
0.7% |
95% |
258 |
0.7% |
95% |
259 |
1.1% |
94% |
260 |
1.4% |
93% |
261 |
1.0% |
91% |
262 |
1.1% |
90% |
263 |
1.3% |
89% |
264 |
2% |
88% |
265 |
2% |
86% |
266 |
1.4% |
85% |
267 |
1.4% |
83% |
268 |
1.2% |
82% |
269 |
2% |
81% |
270 |
2% |
79% |
271 |
1.0% |
77% |
272 |
2% |
76% |
273 |
2% |
75% |
274 |
1.3% |
73% |
275 |
2% |
72% |
276 |
2% |
70% |
277 |
2% |
67% |
278 |
2% |
66% |
279 |
1.2% |
64% |
280 |
1.1% |
63% |
281 |
2% |
62% |
282 |
1.0% |
60% |
283 |
2% |
59% |
284 |
1.2% |
58% |
285 |
1.1% |
57% |
286 |
1.5% |
55% |
287 |
1.1% |
54% |
288 |
1.3% |
53% |
289 |
1.5% |
52% |
290 |
2% |
50% |
291 |
2% |
49% |
292 |
1.3% |
47% |
293 |
2% |
45% |
294 |
1.5% |
43% |
295 |
1.1% |
42% |
296 |
2% |
41% |
297 |
2% |
39% |
298 |
1.5% |
38% |
299 |
1.2% |
36% |
300 |
1.4% |
35% |
301 |
1.0% |
34% |
302 |
1.4% |
33% |
303 |
1.5% |
31% |
304 |
1.3% |
30% |
305 |
2% |
28% |
306 |
1.0% |
27% |
307 |
0.9% |
26% |
308 |
2% |
25% |
309 |
1.0% |
24% |
310 |
1.2% |
22% |
311 |
1.1% |
21% |
312 |
0.9% |
20% |
313 |
1.1% |
19% |
314 |
1.2% |
18% |
315 |
1.0% |
17% |
316 |
0.9% |
16% |
317 |
0.9% |
15% |
318 |
0.8% |
14% |
319 |
0.7% |
13% |
320 |
0.8% |
13% |
321 |
0.7% |
12% |
322 |
0.5% |
11% |
323 |
0.3% |
11% |
324 |
0.4% |
10% |
325 |
0.4% |
10% |
326 |
0.6% |
9% |
327 |
0.5% |
9% |
328 |
0.5% |
8% |
329 |
0.6% |
8% |
330 |
0.5% |
7% |
331 |
0.5% |
7% |
332 |
0.3% |
6% |
333 |
0.3% |
6% |
334 |
0.7% |
5% |
335 |
0.6% |
5% |
336 |
0.4% |
4% |
337 |
0.4% |
4% |
338 |
0.3% |
3% |
339 |
0.3% |
3% |
340 |
0.3% |
3% |
341 |
0.2% |
3% |
342 |
0.3% |
2% |
343 |
0.2% |
2% |
344 |
0.2% |
2% |
345 |
0.2% |
2% |
346 |
0.2% |
2% |
347 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
348 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
349 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
350 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
351 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
352 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
353 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
354 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
355 |
0% |
0.4% |
356 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
357 |
0% |
0.3% |
358 |
0% |
0.3% |
359 |
0% |
0.2% |
360 |
0% |
0.2% |
361 |
0% |
0.2% |
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
366 |
0% |
0.1% |
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
368 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
226 |
0% |
100% |
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
233 |
0% |
99.8% |
234 |
0% |
99.8% |
235 |
0% |
99.7% |
236 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
237 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
238 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
239 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
240 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
241 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
242 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
243 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
244 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
245 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
246 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
247 |
0.2% |
98% |
248 |
0.2% |
98% |
249 |
0.4% |
98% |
250 |
0.4% |
98% |
251 |
0.6% |
97% |
252 |
0.6% |
97% |
253 |
0.8% |
96% |
254 |
0.7% |
95% |
255 |
0.7% |
94% |
256 |
1.1% |
94% |
257 |
1.0% |
93% |
258 |
1.2% |
92% |
259 |
1.2% |
90% |
260 |
1.3% |
89% |
261 |
2% |
88% |
262 |
2% |
86% |
263 |
1.2% |
85% |
264 |
1.4% |
84% |
265 |
1.3% |
82% |
266 |
2% |
81% |
267 |
1.5% |
79% |
268 |
1.1% |
78% |
269 |
2% |
76% |
270 |
1.3% |
75% |
271 |
2% |
73% |
272 |
2% |
72% |
273 |
2% |
70% |
274 |
1.4% |
68% |
275 |
2% |
67% |
276 |
0.8% |
65% |
277 |
1.4% |
64% |
278 |
2% |
62% |
279 |
1.2% |
61% |
280 |
2% |
60% |
281 |
0.7% |
58% |
282 |
1.4% |
57% |
283 |
1.4% |
56% |
284 |
1.1% |
54% |
285 |
1.0% |
53% |
286 |
2% |
52% |
287 |
1.3% |
51% |
288 |
1.3% |
49% |
289 |
1.3% |
48% |
290 |
2% |
47% |
291 |
2% |
45% |
292 |
1.4% |
43% |
293 |
1.5% |
41% |
294 |
1.4% |
40% |
295 |
1.3% |
38% |
296 |
2% |
37% |
297 |
2% |
36% |
298 |
1.4% |
34% |
299 |
0.9% |
33% |
300 |
1.4% |
32% |
301 |
1.3% |
30% |
302 |
1.3% |
29% |
303 |
1.2% |
28% |
304 |
1.0% |
27% |
305 |
1.5% |
26% |
306 |
1.4% |
24% |
307 |
1.0% |
23% |
308 |
1.0% |
22% |
309 |
1.0% |
21% |
310 |
1.1% |
20% |
311 |
1.4% |
19% |
312 |
1.2% |
17% |
313 |
0.6% |
16% |
314 |
0.8% |
15% |
315 |
0.9% |
15% |
316 |
0.8% |
14% |
317 |
0.7% |
13% |
318 |
0.7% |
12% |
319 |
0.6% |
12% |
320 |
0.4% |
11% |
321 |
0.5% |
10% |
322 |
0.5% |
10% |
323 |
0.4% |
9% |
324 |
0.4% |
9% |
325 |
0.6% |
9% |
326 |
0.4% |
8% |
327 |
0.7% |
8% |
328 |
0.3% |
7% |
329 |
0.5% |
7% |
330 |
0.5% |
6% |
331 |
0.4% |
6% |
332 |
0.4% |
5% |
333 |
0.7% |
5% |
334 |
0.4% |
4% |
335 |
0.4% |
4% |
336 |
0.3% |
3% |
337 |
0.3% |
3% |
338 |
0.2% |
3% |
339 |
0.2% |
2% |
340 |
0.2% |
2% |
341 |
0.2% |
2% |
342 |
0.2% |
2% |
343 |
0.2% |
2% |
344 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
345 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
346 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
347 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
348 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
349 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
350 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
351 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
352 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
353 |
0% |
0.4% |
354 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
355 |
0% |
0.3% |
356 |
0% |
0.3% |
357 |
0% |
0.2% |
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
359 |
0% |
0.2% |
360 |
0% |
0.1% |
361 |
0% |
0.1% |
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
254 |
0% |
100% |
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
259 |
0% |
99.8% |
260 |
0% |
99.8% |
261 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
262 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
263 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
264 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
265 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
266 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
267 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
268 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
269 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
270 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
271 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
272 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
273 |
0.3% |
98% |
274 |
0.4% |
98% |
275 |
0.4% |
98% |
276 |
0.5% |
97% |
277 |
1.0% |
97% |
278 |
0.6% |
96% |
279 |
0.7% |
95% |
280 |
1.0% |
94% |
281 |
0.7% |
94% |
282 |
0.7% |
93% |
283 |
0.5% |
92% |
284 |
0.5% |
92% |
285 |
0.7% |
91% |
286 |
0.5% |
90% |
287 |
0.7% |
90% |
288 |
0.8% |
89% |
289 |
2% |
88% |
290 |
1.2% |
87% |
291 |
1.0% |
85% |
292 |
1.2% |
84% |
293 |
0.7% |
83% |
294 |
1.3% |
82% |
295 |
1.4% |
81% |
296 |
1.0% |
80% |
297 |
0.9% |
79% |
298 |
0.8% |
78% |
299 |
0.9% |
77% |
300 |
1.5% |
76% |
301 |
2% |
75% |
302 |
2% |
72% |
303 |
3% |
70% |
304 |
2% |
68% |
305 |
2% |
65% |
306 |
2% |
64% |
307 |
2% |
62% |
308 |
1.5% |
60% |
309 |
3% |
58% |
310 |
1.3% |
55% |
311 |
3% |
54% |
312 |
1.3% |
51% |
313 |
3% |
50% |
314 |
1.3% |
47% |
315 |
4% |
46% |
316 |
4% |
42% |
317 |
4% |
39% |
318 |
4% |
35% |
319 |
3% |
31% |
320 |
5% |
27% |
321 |
3% |
23% |
322 |
3% |
20% |
323 |
2% |
17% |
324 |
1.4% |
15% |
325 |
2% |
14% |
326 |
1.3% |
12% |
327 |
1.4% |
11% |
328 |
1.2% |
9% |
329 |
2% |
8% |
330 |
1.3% |
6% |
331 |
0.8% |
5% |
332 |
0.5% |
4% |
333 |
0.4% |
4% |
334 |
0.4% |
3% |
335 |
0.4% |
3% |
336 |
0.3% |
3% |
337 |
0.4% |
2% |
338 |
0.3% |
2% |
339 |
0.2% |
2% |
340 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
341 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
342 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
343 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
344 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
345 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
346 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
347 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
348 |
0% |
0.4% |
349 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
350 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
351 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
352 |
0% |
0.2% |
353 |
0% |
0.2% |
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
355 |
0% |
0.1% |
356 |
0% |
0.1% |
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
358 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
252 |
0% |
100% |
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
256 |
0% |
99.9% |
257 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
258 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
259 |
0% |
99.7% |
260 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
261 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
262 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
263 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
264 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
265 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
266 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
267 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
268 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
269 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
270 |
0.3% |
98% |
271 |
0.3% |
98% |
272 |
0.3% |
98% |
273 |
0.4% |
98% |
274 |
0.4% |
97% |
275 |
0.5% |
97% |
276 |
1.2% |
96% |
277 |
1.3% |
95% |
278 |
0.7% |
94% |
279 |
0.6% |
93% |
280 |
0.4% |
92% |
281 |
0.6% |
92% |
282 |
0.7% |
91% |
283 |
0.7% |
91% |
284 |
0.8% |
90% |
285 |
0.7% |
89% |
286 |
0.8% |
88% |
287 |
0.8% |
88% |
288 |
1.3% |
87% |
289 |
1.1% |
85% |
290 |
1.1% |
84% |
291 |
1.4% |
83% |
292 |
1.3% |
82% |
293 |
1.1% |
81% |
294 |
1.4% |
79% |
295 |
0.7% |
78% |
296 |
1.0% |
77% |
297 |
1.4% |
76% |
298 |
2% |
75% |
299 |
2% |
73% |
300 |
2% |
71% |
301 |
2% |
69% |
302 |
2% |
67% |
303 |
2% |
65% |
304 |
2% |
63% |
305 |
3% |
61% |
306 |
2% |
59% |
307 |
1.3% |
56% |
308 |
3% |
55% |
309 |
1.2% |
52% |
310 |
3% |
51% |
311 |
2% |
48% |
312 |
3% |
46% |
313 |
4% |
44% |
314 |
3% |
40% |
315 |
4% |
37% |
316 |
4% |
33% |
317 |
5% |
28% |
318 |
2% |
23% |
319 |
3% |
21% |
320 |
3% |
18% |
321 |
2% |
15% |
322 |
1.2% |
13% |
323 |
1.0% |
12% |
324 |
1.3% |
11% |
325 |
2% |
9% |
326 |
1.3% |
8% |
327 |
1.2% |
6% |
328 |
0.6% |
5% |
329 |
0.6% |
4% |
330 |
0.4% |
4% |
331 |
0.4% |
3% |
332 |
0.4% |
3% |
333 |
0.3% |
3% |
334 |
0.3% |
2% |
335 |
0.2% |
2% |
336 |
0.3% |
2% |
337 |
0.2% |
2% |
338 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
339 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
340 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
341 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
342 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
343 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
344 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
345 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
346 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
347 |
0% |
0.3% |
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
349 |
0% |
0.2% |
350 |
0% |
0.2% |
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
355 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
224 |
0% |
100% |
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
229 |
0% |
99.8% |
230 |
0% |
99.8% |
231 |
0% |
99.8% |
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
233 |
0% |
99.7% |
234 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
235 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
236 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
237 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
238 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
239 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
240 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
241 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
242 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
243 |
0.2% |
98% |
244 |
0.1% |
98% |
245 |
0.1% |
98% |
246 |
0.2% |
98% |
247 |
0.2% |
98% |
248 |
0.2% |
98% |
249 |
0.7% |
97% |
250 |
1.0% |
97% |
251 |
0.5% |
96% |
252 |
0.7% |
95% |
253 |
1.0% |
94% |
254 |
1.4% |
93% |
255 |
1.0% |
92% |
256 |
1.4% |
91% |
257 |
2% |
90% |
258 |
2% |
87% |
259 |
1.0% |
86% |
260 |
2% |
85% |
261 |
2% |
83% |
262 |
1.3% |
81% |
263 |
2% |
80% |
264 |
1.5% |
78% |
265 |
1.0% |
76% |
266 |
2% |
75% |
267 |
2% |
73% |
268 |
2% |
72% |
269 |
2% |
69% |
270 |
2% |
67% |
271 |
1.3% |
65% |
272 |
2% |
64% |
273 |
1.3% |
62% |
274 |
1.5% |
61% |
275 |
2% |
60% |
276 |
1.4% |
58% |
277 |
2% |
56% |
278 |
0.9% |
54% |
279 |
1.4% |
53% |
280 |
1.1% |
52% |
281 |
2% |
51% |
282 |
2% |
49% |
283 |
1.0% |
48% |
284 |
2% |
47% |
285 |
2% |
45% |
286 |
2% |
43% |
287 |
2% |
41% |
288 |
2% |
39% |
289 |
2% |
37% |
290 |
0.8% |
35% |
291 |
1.0% |
34% |
292 |
1.3% |
33% |
293 |
2% |
32% |
294 |
2% |
30% |
295 |
1.3% |
28% |
296 |
2% |
27% |
297 |
1.0% |
25% |
298 |
1.2% |
24% |
299 |
1.2% |
23% |
300 |
1.2% |
22% |
301 |
1.3% |
21% |
302 |
1.0% |
19% |
303 |
1.5% |
18% |
304 |
0.8% |
17% |
305 |
0.8% |
16% |
306 |
0.5% |
15% |
307 |
1.1% |
15% |
308 |
0.9% |
14% |
309 |
0.7% |
13% |
310 |
0.7% |
12% |
311 |
0.5% |
11% |
312 |
0.7% |
11% |
313 |
0.5% |
10% |
314 |
0.7% |
10% |
315 |
0.5% |
9% |
316 |
0.4% |
9% |
317 |
0.5% |
8% |
318 |
0.6% |
8% |
319 |
0.3% |
7% |
320 |
1.0% |
7% |
321 |
0.7% |
6% |
322 |
0.4% |
5% |
323 |
0.3% |
5% |
324 |
0.4% |
4% |
325 |
0.3% |
4% |
326 |
0.4% |
4% |
327 |
0.3% |
3% |
328 |
0.4% |
3% |
329 |
0.3% |
3% |
330 |
0.2% |
2% |
331 |
0.3% |
2% |
332 |
0.3% |
2% |
333 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
334 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
335 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
336 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
337 |
0% |
0.7% |
338 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
339 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
340 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
341 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
342 |
0% |
0.4% |
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
346 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
347 |
0% |
0.2% |
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
352 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
220 |
0% |
100% |
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
226 |
0% |
99.8% |
227 |
0% |
99.8% |
228 |
0% |
99.8% |
229 |
0% |
99.8% |
230 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
231 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
232 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
233 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
234 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
235 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
236 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
237 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
238 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
239 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
240 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
241 |
0.2% |
98% |
242 |
0.2% |
98% |
243 |
0.2% |
98% |
244 |
0.2% |
98% |
245 |
0.3% |
97% |
246 |
0.5% |
97% |
247 |
0.6% |
97% |
248 |
0.5% |
96% |
249 |
1.1% |
96% |
250 |
1.0% |
94% |
251 |
1.0% |
93% |
252 |
1.3% |
92% |
253 |
2% |
91% |
254 |
1.3% |
89% |
255 |
2% |
88% |
256 |
1.5% |
87% |
257 |
2% |
85% |
258 |
1.1% |
83% |
259 |
1.5% |
82% |
260 |
2% |
80% |
261 |
2% |
78% |
262 |
2% |
76% |
263 |
2% |
75% |
264 |
2% |
73% |
265 |
2% |
72% |
266 |
1.0% |
70% |
267 |
2% |
69% |
268 |
2% |
67% |
269 |
2% |
65% |
270 |
2% |
63% |
271 |
2% |
61% |
272 |
2% |
60% |
273 |
1.3% |
58% |
274 |
2% |
57% |
275 |
1.0% |
55% |
276 |
2% |
54% |
277 |
2% |
52% |
278 |
0.8% |
51% |
279 |
1.2% |
50% |
280 |
1.2% |
49% |
281 |
2% |
47% |
282 |
2% |
46% |
283 |
2% |
44% |
284 |
2% |
42% |
285 |
2% |
40% |
286 |
2% |
38% |
287 |
2% |
36% |
288 |
1.2% |
35% |
289 |
1.1% |
33% |
290 |
1.3% |
32% |
291 |
2% |
31% |
292 |
2% |
29% |
293 |
2% |
28% |
294 |
1.0% |
26% |
295 |
1.2% |
25% |
296 |
1.4% |
24% |
297 |
1.4% |
22% |
298 |
0.8% |
21% |
299 |
1.1% |
20% |
300 |
1.5% |
19% |
301 |
0.7% |
17% |
302 |
1.1% |
17% |
303 |
0.8% |
16% |
304 |
1.0% |
15% |
305 |
0.7% |
14% |
306 |
0.8% |
13% |
307 |
0.8% |
13% |
308 |
0.5% |
12% |
309 |
0.7% |
11% |
310 |
0.5% |
10% |
311 |
0.5% |
10% |
312 |
0.7% |
9% |
313 |
0.5% |
9% |
314 |
0.7% |
8% |
315 |
0.3% |
8% |
316 |
0.5% |
7% |
317 |
0.7% |
7% |
318 |
0.4% |
6% |
319 |
0.8% |
6% |
320 |
0.4% |
5% |
321 |
0.5% |
5% |
322 |
0.3% |
4% |
323 |
0.4% |
4% |
324 |
0.3% |
3% |
325 |
0.4% |
3% |
326 |
0.3% |
3% |
327 |
0.3% |
2% |
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
329 |
0.2% |
2% |
330 |
0.2% |
2% |
331 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
332 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
333 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
334 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
335 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
336 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
337 |
0% |
0.5% |
338 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
339 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
340 |
0% |
0.3% |
341 |
0% |
0.3% |
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
343 |
0% |
0.2% |
344 |
0% |
0.2% |
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
349 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Survation
- Media: Mail on Sunday
- Fieldwork period: 3 June 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 765
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.31%