Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 2–4 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.1% 44.0–47.3% 43.5–47.8% 43.1–48.2% 42.4–48.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.9% 33.0–36.2% 32.6–36.6% 32.2–37.0% 31.5–37.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.8% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.5–9.2% 6.1–9.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.5–5.0%
Green Party 3.8% 2.6% 2.2–3.2% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 353 339–363 336–369 331–371 323–378
Labour Party 232 223 212–247 206–254 202–261 195–273
Liberal Democrats 8 6 3–12 2–13 1–15 1–16
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 44 22–53 14–55 9–55 3–56
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 4–7 3–7 3–8 3–10

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
318 0% 100%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.9%
321 0.1% 99.8%
322 0.1% 99.7%
323 0.2% 99.6%
324 0.2% 99.4%
325 0.2% 99.2%
326 0.2% 99.0%
327 0.4% 98.9%
328 0.3% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.2% 98%
331 0.6% 98%
332 0.5% 97%
333 0.7% 97%
334 0.4% 96%
335 0.6% 96%
336 2% 95%
337 1.0% 93%
338 2% 92%
339 2% 90%
340 1.5% 89%
341 2% 87%
342 1.4% 85%
343 2% 84%
344 0.8% 82%
345 2% 81%
346 3% 78%
347 3% 75%
348 3% 72%
349 4% 69%
350 4% 66%
351 7% 62%
352 4% 55%
353 8% 51%
354 9% 43%
355 5% 34%
356 4% 29%
357 2% 25%
358 4% 23%
359 3% 19%
360 1.4% 16%
361 3% 14%
362 1.2% 12%
363 1.3% 11%
364 0.7% 9%
365 0.3% 8%
366 0.3% 8%
367 1.4% 8%
368 0.7% 6%
369 2% 6%
370 1.1% 4%
371 0.6% 3%
372 0.7% 2%
373 0.3% 2%
374 0.5% 2%
375 0.2% 1.0%
376 0.2% 0.9%
377 0.1% 0.7%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0% 0.5%
380 0.1% 0.4%
381 0% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.2%
383 0% 0.2%
384 0.1% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.8%
192 0% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.6%
195 0.1% 99.5%
196 0.1% 99.5%
197 0.2% 99.4%
198 0.2% 99.2%
199 0.1% 99.0%
200 0.4% 98.9%
201 1.0% 98.5%
202 0.4% 98%
203 0.7% 97%
204 0.6% 96%
205 0.7% 96%
206 0.5% 95%
207 0.6% 95%
208 1.0% 94%
209 0.6% 93%
210 0.9% 92%
211 0.9% 91%
212 0.9% 91%
213 2% 90%
214 2% 88%
215 2% 86%
216 4% 84%
217 3% 80%
218 3% 78%
219 3% 75%
220 4% 72%
221 5% 67%
222 8% 62%
223 5% 54%
224 2% 50%
225 2% 48%
226 0.8% 45%
227 3% 44%
228 1.3% 42%
229 2% 40%
230 4% 39%
231 2% 35%
232 2% 33%
233 3% 31%
234 1.4% 28%
235 2% 26%
236 0.8% 25%
237 2% 24%
238 4% 22%
239 0.6% 18%
240 2% 18%
241 1.4% 16%
242 0.6% 14%
243 1.4% 14%
244 1.1% 12%
245 0.4% 11%
246 0.7% 11%
247 0.6% 10%
248 1.3% 9%
249 1.0% 8%
250 0.8% 7%
251 0.4% 6%
252 0.6% 6%
253 0.3% 5%
254 0.9% 5%
255 0.3% 4%
256 0.2% 4%
257 0.2% 4%
258 0.2% 3%
259 0.1% 3%
260 0.3% 3%
261 0.5% 3%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.1% 2%
264 0.2% 2%
265 0.2% 2%
266 0.3% 2%
267 0.2% 1.4%
268 0.1% 1.1%
269 0.2% 1.0%
270 0.2% 0.9%
271 0% 0.7%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.6%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.3% 100%
1 2% 99.7%
2 5% 97%
3 9% 92%
4 13% 83%
5 12% 70%
6 9% 58%
7 4% 49%
8 3% 45%
9 9% 42%
10 12% 33%
11 7% 21%
12 6% 14%
13 4% 8%
14 1.1% 4%
15 2% 3%
16 1.1% 1.5%
17 0.2% 0.4%
18 0.1% 0.2%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.1% 100%
3 0.4% 99.9%
4 0.4% 99.5%
5 0.5% 99.1%
6 0.3% 98.6%
7 0.3% 98%
8 0.3% 98%
9 0.6% 98%
10 0.7% 97%
11 0.1% 96%
12 0.4% 96%
13 0.8% 96%
14 0.4% 95%
15 0.2% 95%
16 0.4% 95%
17 1.1% 94%
18 0.4% 93%
19 1.4% 93%
20 0.7% 91%
21 0.2% 91%
22 0.5% 90%
23 0.4% 90%
24 2% 90%
25 2% 88%
26 0.7% 86%
27 2% 85%
28 0.9% 83%
29 0.7% 82%
30 2% 82%
31 2% 80%
32 2% 78%
33 0.6% 76%
34 0.8% 75%
35 2% 74%
36 2% 73%
37 0.6% 71%
38 4% 70%
39 0.3% 66%
40 3% 66%
41 4% 63%
42 3% 59%
43 2% 55%
44 6% 53%
45 7% 47%
46 3% 40%
47 7% 37%
48 3% 30%
49 5% 27%
50 3% 22%
51 2% 19%
52 3% 16%
53 5% 14%
54 4% 9%
55 4% 5%
56 0.9% 0.9%
57 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 61% 100%
1 39% 39%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0% 100%
3 7% 99.9%
4 3% 93%
5 63% 89%
6 7% 26%
7 14% 19%
8 4% 5%
9 0% 0.6%
10 0.2% 0.6%
11 0.4% 0.4%
12 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 400 375–413 368–420 360–424 349–432
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 395 370–408 362–414 355–418 344–425
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 359 345–372 341–377 337–380 328–388
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 358 344–369 341–374 336–377 328–385
Conservative Party 331 353 339–363 336–369 331–371 323–378
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 279 269–293 262–296 260–301 253–309
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 274 263–288 257–291 254–296 247–304
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 272 260–287 255–291 251–295 244–304
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 267 255–282 249–286 246–289 238–299
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 237 224–262 217–269 213–277 207–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 232 218–257 212–264 207–272 200–283
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 229 218–252 211–259 208–266 201–278
Labour Party 232 223 212–247 206–254 202–261 195–273

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0.1% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.9%
344 0.1% 99.8%
345 0% 99.7%
346 0% 99.7%
347 0% 99.7%
348 0.1% 99.7%
349 0.3% 99.6%
350 0.1% 99.4%
351 0.2% 99.3%
352 0.1% 99.1%
353 0.1% 99.0%
354 0.3% 99.0%
355 0.2% 98.7%
356 0.2% 98%
357 0.3% 98%
358 0.1% 98%
359 0.1% 98%
360 0.3% 98%
361 0.2% 97%
362 0.2% 97%
363 0.1% 97%
364 0.3% 97%
365 0.7% 97%
366 0.3% 96%
367 0.5% 96%
368 0.3% 95%
369 0.5% 95%
370 1.2% 94%
371 0.2% 93%
372 0.6% 93%
373 0.6% 92%
374 1.0% 92%
375 0.7% 91%
376 0.3% 90%
377 0.5% 90%
378 1.3% 89%
379 0.6% 88%
380 0.7% 87%
381 0.9% 86%
382 1.5% 86%
383 1.0% 84%
384 0.6% 83%
385 2% 83%
386 0.6% 81%
387 2% 80%
388 1.1% 78%
389 1.2% 77%
390 3% 76%
391 3% 73%
392 2% 70%
393 2% 68%
394 2% 66%
395 2% 64%
396 2% 62%
397 2% 60%
398 3% 58%
399 4% 55%
400 5% 51%
401 0.9% 46%
402 3% 45%
403 5% 42%
404 4% 38%
405 5% 33%
406 4% 29%
407 2% 25%
408 2% 23%
409 2% 21%
410 3% 19%
411 3% 17%
412 3% 14%
413 2% 11%
414 0.8% 9%
415 0.3% 9%
416 1.1% 8%
417 0.9% 7%
418 0.7% 6%
419 0.3% 6%
420 0.7% 5%
421 0.3% 5%
422 0.8% 4%
423 0.5% 3%
424 0.4% 3%
425 0.6% 2%
426 0.9% 2%
427 0.1% 0.9%
428 0.1% 0.8%
429 0.1% 0.7%
430 0.1% 0.7%
431 0.1% 0.6%
432 0.1% 0.5%
433 0.1% 0.4%
434 0.1% 0.3%
435 0.1% 0.2%
436 0% 0.1%
437 0% 0.1%
438 0% 0.1%
439 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
333 0% 100%
334 0% 99.9%
335 0% 99.9%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0.1% 99.9%
340 0% 99.7%
341 0% 99.7%
342 0% 99.7%
343 0.1% 99.7%
344 0.2% 99.6%
345 0.1% 99.4%
346 0.1% 99.3%
347 0.3% 99.2%
348 0.1% 99.0%
349 0% 98.9%
350 0.4% 98.8%
351 0.3% 98%
352 0.3% 98%
353 0.1% 98%
354 0.1% 98%
355 0.5% 98%
356 0.1% 97%
357 0.3% 97%
358 0.2% 97%
359 0.2% 97%
360 0.7% 96%
361 0.1% 96%
362 0.7% 96%
363 0.4% 95%
364 0.4% 94%
365 1.1% 94%
366 0.4% 93%
367 0.7% 93%
368 0.6% 92%
369 0.9% 91%
370 0.5% 90%
371 0.4% 90%
372 0.5% 89%
373 2% 89%
374 0.5% 87%
375 0.4% 87%
376 0.7% 86%
377 2% 86%
378 1.0% 84%
379 0.5% 83%
380 2% 82%
381 0.8% 81%
382 1.3% 80%
383 0.8% 78%
384 2% 78%
385 3% 75%
386 3% 73%
387 1.0% 70%
388 3% 69%
389 3% 66%
390 1.1% 63%
391 2% 62%
392 2% 60%
393 3% 57%
394 4% 54%
395 4% 50%
396 1.3% 46%
397 4% 44%
398 4% 41%
399 6% 36%
400 4% 30%
401 2% 26%
402 1.1% 24%
403 3% 23%
404 3% 20%
405 3% 17%
406 2% 15%
407 2% 13%
408 1.5% 10%
409 0.8% 9%
410 0.5% 8%
411 1.3% 8%
412 0.5% 6%
413 0.6% 6%
414 0.3% 5%
415 0.6% 5%
416 0.5% 4%
417 0.9% 4%
418 0.5% 3%
419 0.4% 2%
420 0.2% 2%
421 0.9% 2%
422 0.1% 0.8%
423 0% 0.7%
424 0.1% 0.7%
425 0.1% 0.6%
426 0.1% 0.4%
427 0.1% 0.3%
428 0% 0.3%
429 0% 0.2%
430 0.1% 0.2%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0.1% 99.9%
327 0.2% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.6%
329 0.1% 99.5%
330 0.1% 99.4%
331 0.2% 99.3%
332 0.2% 99.2%
333 0.2% 99.0%
334 0.3% 98.7%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.4% 97%
339 0.7% 97%
340 1.0% 96%
341 1.1% 95%
342 0.8% 94%
343 2% 94%
344 0.8% 92%
345 2% 91%
346 1.4% 89%
347 0.9% 87%
348 2% 86%
349 1.4% 84%
350 3% 83%
351 1.3% 80%
352 3% 79%
353 4% 76%
354 2% 72%
355 3% 70%
356 4% 67%
357 4% 62%
358 5% 58%
359 5% 53%
360 2% 49%
361 7% 47%
362 5% 40%
363 2% 35%
364 8% 33%
365 2% 25%
366 4% 24%
367 2% 20%
368 3% 18%
369 1.4% 15%
370 2% 14%
371 2% 12%
372 1.4% 10%
373 1.2% 9%
374 1.0% 8%
375 1.2% 7%
376 0.4% 6%
377 0.5% 5%
378 1.0% 5%
379 0.3% 4%
380 1.3% 3%
381 0.2% 2%
382 0.2% 2%
383 0.4% 2%
384 0.3% 1.3%
385 0.3% 1.1%
386 0.2% 0.8%
387 0.1% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.5%
389 0.1% 0.4%
390 0.1% 0.3%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0.1% 0.2%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
323 0% 100%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0.1% 99.9%
326 0.1% 99.8%
327 0.1% 99.8%
328 0.2% 99.7%
329 0.3% 99.4%
330 0.2% 99.2%
331 0.2% 99.0%
332 0.3% 98.8%
333 0.2% 98%
334 0.3% 98%
335 0.2% 98%
336 0.6% 98%
337 0.4% 97%
338 0.5% 97%
339 0.6% 96%
340 0.6% 96%
341 2% 95%
342 0.9% 93%
343 2% 92%
344 2% 91%
345 1.3% 89%
346 2% 87%
347 1.4% 85%
348 1.1% 84%
349 1.2% 83%
350 2% 82%
351 4% 80%
352 3% 76%
353 3% 73%
354 5% 70%
355 4% 65%
356 5% 61%
357 4% 56%
358 7% 52%
359 10% 45%
360 4% 36%
361 5% 31%
362 3% 27%
363 4% 24%
364 2% 20%
365 2% 18%
366 3% 16%
367 1.3% 13%
368 2% 12%
369 0.9% 10%
370 0.7% 9%
371 0.7% 9%
372 1.2% 8%
373 0.5% 7%
374 2% 6%
375 1.1% 5%
376 0.6% 4%
377 0.7% 3%
378 0.4% 2%
379 0.3% 2%
380 0.4% 1.5%
381 0.2% 1.1%
382 0.2% 0.9%
383 0.1% 0.7%
384 0.1% 0.6%
385 0.2% 0.5%
386 0.1% 0.4%
387 0.1% 0.3%
388 0.1% 0.2%
389 0.1% 0.2%
390 0% 0.1%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
318 0% 100%
319 0% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.9%
321 0.1% 99.8%
322 0.1% 99.7%
323 0.2% 99.6%
324 0.2% 99.4%
325 0.2% 99.2%
326 0.2% 99.0%
327 0.4% 98.9%
328 0.3% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.2% 98%
331 0.6% 98%
332 0.5% 97%
333 0.7% 97%
334 0.4% 96%
335 0.6% 96%
336 2% 95%
337 1.0% 93%
338 2% 92%
339 2% 90%
340 1.5% 89%
341 2% 87%
342 1.4% 85%
343 2% 84%
344 0.8% 82%
345 2% 81%
346 3% 78%
347 3% 75%
348 3% 72%
349 4% 69%
350 4% 66%
351 7% 62%
352 4% 55%
353 8% 51%
354 9% 43%
355 5% 34%
356 4% 29%
357 2% 25%
358 4% 23%
359 3% 19%
360 1.4% 16%
361 3% 14%
362 1.2% 12%
363 1.3% 11%
364 0.7% 9%
365 0.3% 8%
366 0.3% 8%
367 1.4% 8%
368 0.7% 6%
369 2% 6%
370 1.1% 4%
371 0.6% 3%
372 0.7% 2%
373 0.3% 2%
374 0.5% 2%
375 0.2% 1.0%
376 0.2% 0.9%
377 0.1% 0.7%
378 0.1% 0.6%
379 0% 0.5%
380 0.1% 0.4%
381 0% 0.3%
382 0.1% 0.2%
383 0% 0.2%
384 0.1% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
246 0% 100%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0.1% 99.9%
249 0% 99.8%
250 0.1% 99.8%
251 0.1% 99.7%
252 0.1% 99.7%
253 0% 99.5%
254 0.1% 99.5%
255 0.2% 99.4%
256 0.1% 99.2%
257 0.2% 99.0%
258 0.6% 98.9%
259 0.5% 98%
260 0.6% 98%
261 0.5% 97%
262 2% 97%
263 0.6% 95%
264 1.3% 94%
265 0.8% 93%
266 0.2% 92%
267 0.8% 92%
268 0.7% 91%
269 1.0% 90%
270 3% 89%
271 1.1% 86%
272 2% 85%
273 2% 83%
274 4% 80%
275 4% 76%
276 2% 72%
277 6% 70%
278 9% 63%
279 8% 54%
280 3% 47%
281 8% 43%
282 3% 36%
283 2% 32%
284 3% 30%
285 4% 27%
286 2% 23%
287 2% 21%
288 1.2% 19%
289 1.4% 17%
290 2% 16%
291 2% 14%
292 1.1% 12%
293 2% 11%
294 1.0% 9%
295 1.1% 8%
296 2% 7%
297 0.5% 5%
298 0.4% 4%
299 0.7% 4%
300 0.4% 3%
301 0.6% 3%
302 0.3% 2%
303 0.2% 2%
304 0.3% 2%
305 0.3% 1.5%
306 0.2% 1.1%
307 0.1% 0.9%
308 0.2% 0.8%
309 0.2% 0.6%
310 0.1% 0.3%
311 0.1% 0.2%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0.1%
314 0% 0.1%
315 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
240 0% 100%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.9%
244 0% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.1% 99.7%
247 0.2% 99.6%
248 0% 99.4%
249 0.2% 99.4%
250 0.2% 99.2%
251 0.2% 99.0%
252 0.4% 98.8%
253 0.5% 98%
254 0.6% 98%
255 0.6% 97%
256 0.4% 97%
257 2% 96%
258 0.6% 94%
259 1.0% 94%
260 0.9% 93%
261 0.5% 92%
262 1.1% 91%
263 0.5% 90%
264 2% 90%
265 3% 88%
266 1.0% 84%
267 2% 83%
268 2% 81%
269 5% 80%
270 5% 75%
271 2% 70%
272 6% 68%
273 10% 62%
274 6% 52%
275 3% 46%
276 6% 43%
277 4% 37%
278 4% 33%
279 3% 29%
280 4% 26%
281 3% 22%
282 2% 19%
283 0.7% 18%
284 1.2% 17%
285 2% 16%
286 2% 14%
287 1.3% 12%
288 2% 11%
289 1.1% 9%
290 1.1% 7%
291 2% 6%
292 0.6% 5%
293 0.4% 4%
294 0.5% 4%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.6% 3%
297 0.2% 2%
298 0.3% 2%
299 0.3% 2%
300 0.3% 1.4%
301 0.2% 1.1%
302 0.2% 0.9%
303 0.2% 0.8%
304 0.2% 0.5%
305 0.1% 0.3%
306 0.1% 0.2%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.9%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.7%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.1% 99.5%
245 0.2% 99.4%
246 0.2% 99.3%
247 0.2% 99.1%
248 0.5% 98.9%
249 0.2% 98%
250 0.3% 98%
251 1.1% 98%
252 0.3% 97%
253 1.0% 97%
254 0.5% 96%
255 0.5% 95%
256 0.3% 95%
257 1.4% 94%
258 1.1% 93%
259 1.3% 92%
260 2% 91%
261 1.0% 88%
262 1.4% 87%
263 2% 86%
264 2% 84%
265 5% 82%
266 1.3% 77%
267 2% 76%
268 7% 73%
269 4% 66%
270 4% 62%
271 6% 58%
272 4% 52%
273 3% 49%
274 4% 46%
275 6% 42%
276 4% 36%
277 2% 31%
278 3% 29%
279 4% 27%
280 2% 23%
281 2% 21%
282 2% 19%
283 1.2% 17%
284 2% 15%
285 1.3% 13%
286 1.1% 12%
287 2% 11%
288 2% 9%
289 0.8% 7%
290 0.6% 6%
291 1.1% 6%
292 1.0% 4%
293 0.7% 3%
294 0.3% 3%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.4% 2%
297 0.2% 2%
298 0.3% 1.5%
299 0.2% 1.2%
300 0.2% 1.0%
301 0.1% 0.8%
302 0.1% 0.6%
303 0.1% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.1%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.8%
235 0.1% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.7%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.1% 99.6%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.3% 99.3%
241 0.3% 99.1%
242 0.2% 98.8%
243 0.4% 98.6%
244 0.3% 98%
245 0.3% 98%
246 1.0% 98%
247 0.6% 97%
248 1.0% 96%
249 0.5% 95%
250 0.4% 95%
251 0.6% 94%
252 1.1% 94%
253 2% 93%
254 0.7% 91%
255 3% 90%
256 2% 87%
257 0.7% 85%
258 2% 85%
259 2% 83%
260 5% 81%
261 2% 76%
262 2% 74%
263 7% 72%
264 5% 65%
265 4% 61%
266 5% 57%
267 3% 52%
268 6% 49%
269 4% 43%
270 5% 40%
271 3% 34%
272 2% 31%
273 4% 29%
274 3% 25%
275 2% 22%
276 2% 20%
277 2% 18%
278 2% 16%
279 2% 14%
280 0.8% 12%
281 0.9% 12%
282 2% 11%
283 2% 9%
284 0.7% 7%
285 0.5% 6%
286 1.3% 6%
287 0.9% 4%
288 0.6% 3%
289 0.2% 3%
290 0.4% 2%
291 0.4% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.3% 1.5%
294 0.2% 1.1%
295 0.2% 0.9%
296 0.1% 0.8%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.6%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
200 0% 100%
201 0.1% 99.9%
202 0.1% 99.9%
203 0% 99.8%
204 0% 99.8%
205 0.1% 99.7%
206 0.1% 99.6%
207 0.1% 99.5%
208 0.1% 99.4%
209 0.1% 99.3%
210 0.5% 99.2%
211 0.6% 98.7%
212 0.2% 98%
213 0.5% 98%
214 0.4% 97%
215 1.2% 97%
216 0.2% 96%
217 0.7% 96%
218 0.3% 95%
219 0.7% 95%
220 1.3% 94%
221 0.5% 93%
222 0.8% 92%
223 1.0% 91%
224 2% 90%
225 2% 89%
226 2% 87%
227 4% 84%
228 3% 81%
229 1.5% 78%
230 2% 76%
231 3% 75%
232 6% 72%
233 4% 67%
234 5% 63%
235 2% 57%
236 2% 55%
237 7% 54%
238 2% 47%
239 4% 45%
240 2% 41%
241 2% 40%
242 0.7% 38%
243 3% 37%
244 3% 34%
245 2% 31%
246 2% 29%
247 3% 27%
248 1.5% 24%
249 2% 22%
250 0.7% 21%
251 0.5% 20%
252 2% 19%
253 0.7% 17%
254 0.7% 17%
255 2% 16%
256 0.7% 14%
257 0.7% 13%
258 1.3% 13%
259 0.5% 11%
260 0.5% 11%
261 0.3% 10%
262 0.8% 10%
263 0.6% 9%
264 1.0% 9%
265 0.5% 8%
266 0.4% 7%
267 1.2% 7%
268 0.4% 6%
269 0.6% 5%
270 0.4% 5%
271 0.1% 4%
272 0.7% 4%
273 0.2% 4%
274 0.2% 3%
275 0.3% 3%
276 0.1% 3%
277 0.4% 3%
278 0.1% 2%
279 0.1% 2%
280 0.4% 2%
281 0.3% 2%
282 0.2% 1.3%
283 0% 1.2%
284 0.1% 1.1%
285 0.3% 1.0%
286 0% 0.7%
287 0.1% 0.7%
288 0.2% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.4%
290 0% 0.3%
291 0% 0.3%
292 0% 0.3%
293 0.1% 0.3%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0.1%
299 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.1% 99.9%
197 0.1% 99.8%
198 0.1% 99.8%
199 0% 99.6%
200 0.1% 99.6%
201 0.1% 99.5%
202 0.1% 99.4%
203 0.1% 99.3%
204 0.1% 99.2%
205 0.5% 99.1%
206 0.8% 98.6%
207 0.6% 98%
208 0.3% 97%
209 0.4% 97%
210 0.9% 97%
211 0.3% 96%
212 0.7% 95%
213 0.5% 95%
214 0.9% 94%
215 1.1% 93%
216 0.6% 92%
217 0.6% 92%
218 1.1% 91%
219 2% 90%
220 2% 88%
221 3% 86%
222 3% 83%
223 3% 80%
224 2% 77%
225 2% 75%
226 4% 73%
227 5% 69%
228 3% 64%
229 5% 61%
230 2% 56%
231 1.2% 54%
232 7% 53%
233 2% 46%
234 3% 44%
235 2% 41%
236 2% 39%
237 1.2% 37%
238 2% 36%
239 2% 34%
240 3% 31%
241 2% 29%
242 3% 27%
243 1.1% 24%
244 2% 22%
245 0.9% 20%
246 0.5% 19%
247 2% 19%
248 1.0% 17%
249 0.7% 16%
250 1.5% 16%
251 0.8% 14%
252 0.8% 13%
253 1.3% 13%
254 0.4% 11%
255 0.6% 11%
256 0.2% 10%
257 1.1% 10%
258 0.7% 9%
259 0.9% 8%
260 0.3% 7%
261 0.4% 7%
262 1.4% 7%
263 0.3% 5%
264 0.4% 5%
265 0.3% 5%
266 0.4% 4%
267 0.6% 4%
268 0.3% 3%
269 0.1% 3%
270 0.3% 3%
271 0.2% 3%
272 0.3% 3%
273 0.1% 2%
274 0.1% 2%
275 0.4% 2%
276 0.3% 2%
277 0% 1.3%
278 0.3% 1.3%
279 0.1% 1.0%
280 0.1% 1.0%
281 0.2% 0.8%
282 0% 0.7%
283 0.2% 0.6%
284 0.1% 0.4%
285 0% 0.3%
286 0% 0.3%
287 0% 0.3%
288 0.1% 0.3%
289 0.1% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0.1% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
193 0% 100%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0% 99.9%
196 0.1% 99.9%
197 0% 99.8%
198 0% 99.7%
199 0.1% 99.7%
200 0.1% 99.6%
201 0.1% 99.6%
202 0.1% 99.4%
203 0.2% 99.3%
204 0.1% 99.2%
205 0.4% 99.0%
206 0.7% 98.6%
207 0.2% 98%
208 0.8% 98%
209 0.6% 97%
210 0.7% 96%
211 0.8% 96%
212 0.6% 95%
213 1.0% 94%
214 0.5% 93%
215 0.3% 93%
216 1.3% 92%
217 0.3% 91%
218 2% 91%
219 3% 89%
220 0.9% 86%
221 3% 85%
222 2% 82%
223 3% 80%
224 4% 76%
225 4% 72%
226 5% 69%
227 8% 64%
228 5% 56%
229 2% 51%
230 2% 49%
231 2% 47%
232 3% 45%
233 2% 42%
234 2% 40%
235 3% 38%
236 2% 35%
237 3% 33%
238 2% 30%
239 2% 29%
240 1.0% 27%
241 2% 26%
242 2% 24%
243 4% 22%
244 1.1% 19%
245 2% 18%
246 2% 16%
247 0.5% 14%
248 1.2% 14%
249 0.9% 13%
250 0.6% 12%
251 0.9% 11%
252 0.7% 10%
253 1.1% 10%
254 1.1% 9%
255 0.9% 7%
256 0.4% 7%
257 0.4% 6%
258 0.3% 6%
259 1.1% 5%
260 0.1% 4%
261 0.3% 4%
262 0.2% 4%
263 0.3% 4%
264 0.1% 3%
265 0.3% 3%
266 0.4% 3%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0% 2%
269 0.4% 2%
270 0.1% 2%
271 0.3% 2%
272 0.3% 1.4%
273 0.1% 1.1%
274 0.1% 1.0%
275 0.1% 0.9%
276 0.1% 0.8%
277 0.1% 0.7%
278 0.2% 0.6%
279 0% 0.4%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0.1% 0.3%
282 0% 0.3%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0.1% 0.2%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.8%
192 0% 99.7%
193 0.1% 99.7%
194 0.1% 99.6%
195 0.1% 99.5%
196 0.1% 99.5%
197 0.2% 99.4%
198 0.2% 99.2%
199 0.1% 99.0%
200 0.4% 98.9%
201 1.0% 98.5%
202 0.4% 98%
203 0.7% 97%
204 0.6% 96%
205 0.7% 96%
206 0.5% 95%
207 0.6% 95%
208 1.0% 94%
209 0.6% 93%
210 0.9% 92%
211 0.9% 91%
212 0.9% 91%
213 2% 90%
214 2% 88%
215 2% 86%
216 4% 84%
217 3% 80%
218 3% 78%
219 3% 75%
220 4% 72%
221 5% 67%
222 8% 62%
223 5% 54%
224 2% 50%
225 2% 48%
226 0.8% 45%
227 3% 44%
228 1.3% 42%
229 2% 40%
230 4% 39%
231 2% 35%
232 2% 33%
233 3% 31%
234 1.4% 28%
235 2% 26%
236 0.8% 25%
237 2% 24%
238 4% 22%
239 0.6% 18%
240 2% 18%
241 1.4% 16%
242 0.6% 14%
243 1.4% 14%
244 1.1% 12%
245 0.4% 11%
246 0.7% 11%
247 0.6% 10%
248 1.3% 9%
249 1.0% 8%
250 0.8% 7%
251 0.4% 6%
252 0.6% 6%
253 0.3% 5%
254 0.9% 5%
255 0.3% 4%
256 0.2% 4%
257 0.2% 4%
258 0.2% 3%
259 0.1% 3%
260 0.3% 3%
261 0.5% 3%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0.1% 2%
264 0.2% 2%
265 0.2% 2%
266 0.3% 2%
267 0.2% 1.4%
268 0.1% 1.1%
269 0.2% 1.0%
270 0.2% 0.9%
271 0% 0.7%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.6%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations