Opinion Poll by Opinium, 4–6 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.6% 42.0–44.9% 41.6–45.3% 41.3–45.6% 40.6–46.3%
Labour Party 30.4% 36.4% 34.9–37.7% 34.5–38.1% 34.2–38.4% 33.5–39.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Green Party 3.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 330 319–345 318–349 315–350 312–354
Labour Party 232 240 224–251 221–254 219–256 215–262
Liberal Democrats 8 5 2–9 2–10 1–12 1–14
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 54 49–56 47–57 45–57 33–58
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 2–5 1–5 0–5 0–6

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
307 0% 100%
308 0.1% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0.1% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0.6% 99.6%
313 0.6% 99.1%
314 0.7% 98%
315 0.7% 98%
316 0.8% 97%
317 0.6% 96%
318 4% 96%
319 2% 92%
320 5% 89%
321 7% 85%
322 5% 78%
323 5% 74%
324 2% 69%
325 1.2% 67%
326 3% 66%
327 5% 63%
328 2% 58%
329 3% 56%
330 7% 53%
331 2% 46%
332 5% 45%
333 4% 40%
334 2% 36%
335 2% 35%
336 4% 32%
337 5% 29%
338 2% 24%
339 2% 22%
340 2% 20%
341 3% 19%
342 2% 15%
343 0.9% 13%
344 0.6% 12%
345 2% 11%
346 2% 10%
347 2% 8%
348 1.4% 7%
349 2% 5%
350 1.4% 3%
351 0.5% 2%
352 0.5% 1.4%
353 0.2% 0.8%
354 0.3% 0.6%
355 0.1% 0.4%
356 0.1% 0.2%
357 0.1% 0.2%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
210 0% 100%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.9%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.3% 99.7%
216 0.3% 99.4%
217 0.2% 99.2%
218 0.6% 99.0%
219 1.1% 98%
220 1.4% 97%
221 2% 96%
222 2% 94%
223 2% 93%
224 2% 91%
225 0.7% 89%
226 1.4% 89%
227 2% 87%
228 3% 85%
229 2% 83%
230 1.3% 81%
231 3% 79%
232 2% 76%
233 4% 74%
234 3% 70%
235 3% 67%
236 5% 64%
237 2% 59%
238 4% 58%
239 2% 53%
240 5% 51%
241 2% 46%
242 4% 44%
243 1.5% 40%
244 3% 39%
245 2% 36%
246 5% 34%
247 5% 29%
248 6% 24%
249 2% 18%
250 3% 15%
251 4% 12%
252 2% 8%
253 1.0% 7%
254 1.1% 6%
255 2% 5%
256 0.7% 3%
257 0.7% 2%
258 0.4% 2%
259 0.4% 1.3%
260 0.1% 0.9%
261 0.2% 0.8%
262 0.1% 0.6%
263 0.1% 0.5%
264 0.1% 0.4%
265 0% 0.3%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 3% 100%
2 9% 97%
3 13% 88%
4 17% 74%
5 16% 57%
6 11% 40%
7 8% 30%
8 7% 22%
9 6% 15%
10 5% 9%
11 0.8% 3%
12 0.8% 3%
13 1.0% 2%
14 0.5% 0.8%
15 0.2% 0.4%
16 0.1% 0.2%
17 0% 0.1%
18 0% 0.1%
19 0% 0.1%
20 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
23 0% 100%
24 0% 99.9%
25 0% 99.9%
26 0% 99.9%
27 0.1% 99.9%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.8%
30 0.1% 99.8%
31 0.1% 99.7%
32 0.1% 99.6%
33 0.1% 99.6%
34 0.1% 99.5%
35 0.1% 99.4%
36 0.1% 99.3%
37 0.1% 99.3%
38 0% 99.2%
39 0.1% 99.1%
40 0.1% 99.1%
41 0.1% 99.0%
42 0.2% 98.9%
43 0.2% 98.8%
44 0.5% 98.6%
45 0.6% 98%
46 2% 97%
47 2% 96%
48 1.3% 94%
49 3% 93%
50 3% 90%
51 6% 86%
52 10% 80%
53 3% 70%
54 26% 66%
55 22% 40%
56 13% 18%
57 3% 5%
58 2% 2%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 96% 100%
1 4% 4%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 3% 100%
1 4% 97%
2 5% 92%
3 46% 88%
4 11% 42%
5 30% 31%
6 0.3% 0.6%
7 0.3% 0.3%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 387 375–403 372–406 369–408 361–412
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 383 372–399 369–402 366–404 358–408
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 335 324–350 323–354 320–356 317–361
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 333 322–349 321–352 318–354 315–358
Conservative Party 331 330 319–345 318–349 315–350 312–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 302 287–313 283–314 282–317 278–320
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 299 283–310 280–311 278–314 274–317
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 297 282–308 278–309 276–312 271–315
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 293 278–304 275–306 272–309 268–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 249 233–260 230–263 228–266 224–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 245 229–257 226–260 224–263 220–271
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 243 229–254 225–257 223–260 219–265
Labour Party 232 240 224–251 221–254 219–256 215–262

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
348 0% 100%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.8%
356 0% 99.8%
357 0.1% 99.8%
358 0% 99.7%
359 0.1% 99.6%
360 0% 99.6%
361 0.1% 99.6%
362 0.1% 99.5%
363 0.1% 99.4%
364 0.1% 99.3%
365 0.2% 99.1%
366 0.2% 98.9%
367 0.4% 98.7%
368 0.5% 98%
369 0.9% 98%
370 0.5% 97%
371 0.8% 96%
372 0.7% 96%
373 2% 95%
374 2% 93%
375 3% 91%
376 2% 88%
377 4% 86%
378 3% 82%
379 4% 79%
380 5% 75%
381 4% 71%
382 4% 67%
383 2% 62%
384 2% 60%
385 3% 58%
386 3% 55%
387 4% 52%
388 4% 48%
389 3% 44%
390 4% 41%
391 3% 37%
392 2% 34%
393 3% 32%
394 3% 28%
395 2% 25%
396 3% 23%
397 2% 20%
398 2% 19%
399 2% 17%
400 2% 15%
401 1.3% 13%
402 1.4% 12%
403 2% 10%
404 1.4% 9%
405 2% 7%
406 1.5% 6%
407 1.3% 4%
408 0.9% 3%
409 0.7% 2%
410 0.4% 1.3%
411 0.4% 0.9%
412 0.2% 0.6%
413 0.1% 0.4%
414 0.1% 0.3%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
345 0% 100%
346 0% 99.9%
347 0% 99.9%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0.1% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.8%
353 0% 99.8%
354 0.1% 99.8%
355 0.1% 99.7%
356 0.1% 99.6%
357 0.1% 99.6%
358 0% 99.5%
359 0.1% 99.5%
360 0.1% 99.4%
361 0.1% 99.3%
362 0.3% 99.2%
363 0.3% 98.8%
364 0.3% 98.5%
365 0.2% 98%
366 0.7% 98%
367 0.9% 97%
368 0.9% 96%
369 0.7% 95%
370 2% 95%
371 2% 92%
372 3% 90%
373 3% 88%
374 4% 85%
375 5% 81%
376 4% 76%
377 4% 73%
378 4% 69%
379 4% 65%
380 2% 61%
381 2% 59%
382 3% 57%
383 4% 54%
384 4% 50%
385 4% 46%
386 3% 42%
387 3% 40%
388 4% 36%
389 2% 32%
390 3% 30%
391 4% 28%
392 2% 24%
393 1.4% 21%
394 2% 20%
395 2% 18%
396 2% 16%
397 2% 14%
398 2% 12%
399 2% 10%
400 1.2% 9%
401 1.0% 7%
402 2% 6%
403 1.4% 5%
404 2% 3%
405 0.5% 2%
406 0.6% 1.3%
407 0.1% 0.7%
408 0.2% 0.6%
409 0.1% 0.4%
410 0.1% 0.2%
411 0.1% 0.2%
412 0% 0.1%
413 0% 0.1%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
312 0% 100%
313 0% 99.9%
314 0% 99.9%
315 0.1% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.4% 99.7%
318 0.6% 99.3%
319 0.3% 98.6%
320 1.2% 98%
321 0.7% 97%
322 0.9% 96%
323 3% 96%
324 3% 93%
325 6% 89%
326 4% 83%
327 2% 80%
328 6% 77%
329 3% 72%
330 2% 69%
331 3% 67%
332 4% 63%
333 3% 59%
334 2% 56%
335 5% 54%
336 3% 49%
337 2% 46%
338 4% 44%
339 4% 40%
340 4% 36%
341 1.4% 32%
342 4% 31%
343 4% 27%
344 2% 23%
345 2% 21%
346 2% 19%
347 2% 17%
348 2% 15%
349 2% 13%
350 0.9% 11%
351 1.0% 10%
352 2% 9%
353 1.5% 7%
354 2% 5%
355 0.8% 3%
356 0.8% 3%
357 0.6% 2%
358 0.4% 1.3%
359 0.2% 0.9%
360 0.2% 0.7%
361 0.3% 0.5%
362 0.1% 0.3%
363 0.1% 0.2%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
310 0% 100%
311 0% 99.9%
312 0.1% 99.9%
313 0.1% 99.9%
314 0.1% 99.8%
315 0.4% 99.6%
316 0.5% 99.2%
317 0.9% 98.8%
318 0.6% 98%
319 1.4% 97%
320 0.7% 96%
321 3% 95%
322 3% 92%
323 3% 90%
324 4% 87%
325 5% 83%
326 6% 77%
327 2% 71%
328 2% 69%
329 3% 67%
330 5% 64%
331 2% 59%
332 2% 57%
333 8% 55%
334 2% 47%
335 4% 46%
336 3% 42%
337 2% 39%
338 3% 36%
339 3% 33%
340 4% 30%
341 3% 26%
342 2% 24%
343 3% 21%
344 2% 19%
345 1.2% 17%
346 2% 16%
347 2% 14%
348 1.5% 12%
349 1.0% 11%
350 2% 10%
351 2% 8%
352 2% 6%
353 1.5% 5%
354 0.8% 3%
355 1.1% 2%
356 0.3% 1.3%
357 0.3% 0.9%
358 0.2% 0.6%
359 0.2% 0.4%
360 0.1% 0.2%
361 0.1% 0.2%
362 0% 0.1%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
307 0% 100%
308 0.1% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0.1% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0.6% 99.6%
313 0.6% 99.1%
314 0.7% 98%
315 0.7% 98%
316 0.8% 97%
317 0.6% 96%
318 4% 96%
319 2% 92%
320 5% 89%
321 7% 85%
322 5% 78%
323 5% 74%
324 2% 69%
325 1.2% 67%
326 3% 66%
327 5% 63%
328 2% 58%
329 3% 56%
330 7% 53%
331 2% 46%
332 5% 45%
333 4% 40%
334 2% 36%
335 2% 35%
336 4% 32%
337 5% 29%
338 2% 24%
339 2% 22%
340 2% 20%
341 3% 19%
342 2% 15%
343 0.9% 13%
344 0.6% 12%
345 2% 11%
346 2% 10%
347 2% 8%
348 1.4% 7%
349 2% 5%
350 1.4% 3%
351 0.5% 2%
352 0.5% 1.4%
353 0.2% 0.8%
354 0.3% 0.6%
355 0.1% 0.4%
356 0.1% 0.2%
357 0.1% 0.2%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
273 0% 100%
274 0% 99.9%
275 0.1% 99.9%
276 0.1% 99.8%
277 0.1% 99.8%
278 0.3% 99.6%
279 0.2% 99.3%
280 0.6% 99.2%
281 0.5% 98.6%
282 1.5% 98%
283 2% 97%
284 1.4% 95%
285 2% 93%
286 2% 92%
287 2% 90%
288 0.6% 89%
289 1.0% 88%
290 2% 87%
291 3% 84%
292 2% 81%
293 2% 80%
294 2% 78%
295 5% 76%
296 3% 71%
297 2% 68%
298 2% 65%
299 3% 63%
300 5% 60%
301 2% 55%
302 7% 53%
303 3% 47%
304 3% 44%
305 4% 41%
306 3% 37%
307 1.3% 34%
308 2% 33%
309 5% 31%
310 5% 26%
311 7% 22%
312 4% 15%
313 2% 11%
314 4% 8%
315 0.6% 4%
316 0.8% 4%
317 0.7% 3%
318 0.7% 2%
319 0.6% 1.5%
320 0.6% 0.9%
321 0.1% 0.4%
322 0.1% 0.2%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0.1% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
268 0% 100%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0.1% 99.9%
272 0.1% 99.8%
273 0.2% 99.8%
274 0.2% 99.6%
275 0.3% 99.4%
276 0.4% 99.1%
277 1.2% 98.7%
278 0.9% 98%
279 1.4% 97%
280 2% 95%
281 2% 94%
282 2% 92%
283 1.0% 90%
284 1.4% 89%
285 2% 88%
286 2% 86%
287 1.4% 84%
288 2% 83%
289 3% 81%
290 2% 79%
291 3% 76%
292 4% 74%
293 3% 69%
294 3% 67%
295 2% 64%
296 3% 61%
297 4% 58%
298 2% 54%
299 8% 53%
300 2% 45%
301 2% 43%
302 5% 41%
303 3% 36%
304 2% 33%
305 2% 31%
306 6% 29%
307 5% 23%
308 4% 17%
309 3% 13%
310 3% 10%
311 3% 8%
312 0.7% 5%
313 1.4% 4%
314 0.6% 3%
315 0.9% 2%
316 0.5% 1.2%
317 0.4% 0.8%
318 0.1% 0.4%
319 0.1% 0.2%
320 0.1% 0.1%
321 0% 0.1%
322 0% 0.1%
323 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
265 0% 100%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0.1% 99.9%
270 0.1% 99.8%
271 0.3% 99.7%
272 0.2% 99.4%
273 0.2% 99.2%
274 0.3% 99.0%
275 0.6% 98.7%
276 0.9% 98%
277 0.8% 97%
278 2% 96%
279 1.4% 95%
280 2% 93%
281 1.0% 91%
282 0.9% 90%
283 2% 89%
284 2% 87%
285 2% 85%
286 2% 83%
287 2% 81%
288 2% 79%
289 4% 77%
290 4% 73%
291 1.2% 69%
292 4% 68%
293 4% 64%
294 4% 60%
295 2% 56%
296 3% 54%
297 5% 51%
298 2% 46%
299 3% 44%
300 4% 41%
301 3% 36%
302 2% 33%
303 3% 31%
304 5% 28%
305 2% 22%
306 4% 20%
307 6% 17%
308 3% 10%
309 3% 7%
310 0.9% 4%
311 0.7% 4%
312 1.2% 3%
313 0.3% 2%
314 0.6% 1.4%
315 0.4% 0.7%
316 0.1% 0.3%
317 0.1% 0.2%
318 0% 0.1%
319 0% 0.1%
320 0% 0.1%
321 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
261 0% 100%
262 0% 99.9%
263 0% 99.9%
264 0% 99.9%
265 0% 99.9%
266 0.1% 99.8%
267 0.1% 99.7%
268 0.2% 99.5%
269 0.3% 99.4%
270 0.3% 99.1%
271 0.7% 98.7%
272 0.7% 98%
273 1.1% 97%
274 0.9% 96%
275 2% 95%
276 2% 94%
277 2% 92%
278 2% 90%
279 2% 89%
280 2% 87%
281 2% 86%
282 2% 84%
283 3% 82%
284 2% 79%
285 2% 77%
286 4% 76%
287 3% 72%
288 3% 69%
289 4% 65%
290 3% 62%
291 5% 59%
292 3% 54%
293 2% 52%
294 5% 50%
295 2% 44%
296 3% 43%
297 4% 40%
298 6% 36%
299 2% 30%
300 2% 29%
301 5% 26%
302 4% 21%
303 3% 17%
304 5% 14%
305 3% 9%
306 2% 6%
307 0.9% 4%
308 0.7% 3%
309 0.8% 3%
310 0.4% 2%
311 0.8% 1.3%
312 0.2% 0.5%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0.1% 0.2%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0.1%
317 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.9%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.2% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.4%
226 0.6% 99.2%
227 0.5% 98.6%
228 2% 98%
229 1.3% 97%
230 2% 95%
231 1.0% 94%
232 1.2% 92%
233 2% 91%
234 2% 90%
235 2% 88%
236 2% 86%
237 2% 84%
238 2% 82%
239 1.4% 80%
240 3% 78%
241 4% 76%
242 3% 72%
243 2% 69%
244 4% 67%
245 3% 64%
246 3% 60%
247 4% 58%
248 4% 54%
249 4% 50%
250 3% 46%
251 2% 43%
252 2% 41%
253 4% 39%
254 4% 35%
255 4% 31%
256 4% 27%
257 5% 24%
258 3% 19%
259 3% 15%
260 3% 12%
261 2% 10%
262 2% 8%
263 0.7% 5%
264 0.9% 5%
265 0.9% 4%
266 0.7% 3%
267 0.2% 2%
268 0.3% 2%
269 0.3% 1.5%
270 0.3% 1.2%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.1% 0.6%
274 0% 0.5%
275 0.1% 0.5%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0.1% 0.4%
278 0.1% 0.3%
279 0% 0.2%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0.1% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
215 0% 100%
216 0.1% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0.1% 99.8%
219 0.1% 99.7%
220 0.2% 99.6%
221 0.3% 99.4%
222 0.4% 99.0%
223 0.7% 98.6%
224 1.0% 98%
225 1.3% 97%
226 2% 96%
227 2% 94%
228 1.5% 93%
229 2% 91%
230 1.5% 90%
231 1.3% 88%
232 2% 87%
233 2% 85%
234 2% 83%
235 2% 81%
236 3% 79%
237 3% 77%
238 3% 74%
239 3% 71%
240 3% 68%
241 3% 65%
242 3% 62%
243 3% 59%
244 4% 56%
245 4% 52%
246 3% 48%
247 3% 45%
248 2% 42%
249 3% 40%
250 4% 37%
251 4% 33%
252 5% 29%
253 4% 25%
254 3% 21%
255 4% 18%
256 2% 14%
257 3% 12%
258 1.5% 9%
259 2% 7%
260 0.8% 5%
261 0.7% 4%
262 0.5% 4%
263 0.9% 3%
264 0.5% 2%
265 0.4% 2%
266 0.2% 1.3%
267 0.2% 1.1%
268 0.1% 0.9%
269 0.1% 0.7%
270 0.1% 0.6%
271 0.1% 0.5%
272 0% 0.4%
273 0.1% 0.4%
274 0% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.3%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
213 0% 100%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0.1% 99.9%
217 0.1% 99.9%
218 0.1% 99.7%
219 0.2% 99.6%
220 0.3% 99.5%
221 0.3% 99.2%
222 0.5% 98.9%
223 2% 98%
224 1.2% 97%
225 2% 96%
226 2% 94%
227 0.8% 92%
228 1.1% 91%
229 2% 90%
230 1.3% 88%
231 3% 87%
232 2% 84%
233 2% 82%
234 3% 80%
235 1.3% 77%
236 4% 76%
237 3% 71%
238 3% 68%
239 4% 66%
240 3% 62%
241 4% 60%
242 2% 55%
243 5% 53%
244 3% 48%
245 4% 45%
246 2% 41%
247 2% 40%
248 2% 37%
249 5% 35%
250 5% 30%
251 4% 26%
252 4% 22%
253 6% 18%
254 3% 12%
255 2% 10%
256 2% 8%
257 2% 6%
258 1.2% 4%
259 0.7% 3%
260 0.7% 3%
261 0.5% 2%
262 0.3% 1.3%
263 0.2% 1.0%
264 0.3% 0.8%
265 0.1% 0.6%
266 0.1% 0.5%
267 0.1% 0.4%
268 0.1% 0.3%
269 0.1% 0.3%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
210 0% 100%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0.1% 99.9%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.3% 99.7%
216 0.3% 99.4%
217 0.2% 99.2%
218 0.6% 99.0%
219 1.1% 98%
220 1.4% 97%
221 2% 96%
222 2% 94%
223 2% 93%
224 2% 91%
225 0.7% 89%
226 1.4% 89%
227 2% 87%
228 3% 85%
229 2% 83%
230 1.3% 81%
231 3% 79%
232 2% 76%
233 4% 74%
234 3% 70%
235 3% 67%
236 5% 64%
237 2% 59%
238 4% 58%
239 2% 53%
240 5% 51%
241 2% 46%
242 4% 44%
243 1.5% 40%
244 3% 39%
245 2% 36%
246 5% 34%
247 5% 29%
248 6% 24%
249 2% 18%
250 3% 15%
251 4% 12%
252 2% 8%
253 1.0% 7%
254 1.1% 6%
255 2% 5%
256 0.7% 3%
257 0.7% 2%
258 0.4% 2%
259 0.4% 1.3%
260 0.1% 0.9%
261 0.2% 0.8%
262 0.1% 0.6%
263 0.1% 0.5%
264 0.1% 0.4%
265 0% 0.3%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.2%
268 0% 0.2%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations