Opinion Poll by Opinium, 4–6 June 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
36.9% |
43.6% |
42.0–44.9% |
41.6–45.3% |
41.3–45.6% |
40.6–46.3% |
Labour Party |
30.4% |
36.4% |
34.9–37.7% |
34.5–38.1% |
34.2–38.4% |
33.5–39.1% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.9% |
7.9% |
7.2–8.7% |
7.0–9.0% |
6.8–9.2% |
6.5–9.6% |
UK Independence Party |
12.6% |
4.6% |
4.1–5.3% |
3.9–5.5% |
3.8–5.6% |
3.5–5.9% |
Scottish National Party |
4.7% |
4.6% |
4.1–5.3% |
3.9–5.5% |
3.8–5.6% |
3.5–5.9% |
Green Party |
3.8% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.7% |
1.7–2.8% |
1.6–3.0% |
1.5–3.2% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.6% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
307 |
0% |
100% |
308 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
311 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
312 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
313 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
314 |
0.7% |
98% |
315 |
0.7% |
98% |
316 |
0.8% |
97% |
317 |
0.6% |
96% |
318 |
4% |
96% |
319 |
2% |
92% |
320 |
5% |
89% |
321 |
7% |
85% |
322 |
5% |
78% |
323 |
5% |
74% |
324 |
2% |
69% |
325 |
1.2% |
67% |
326 |
3% |
66% |
327 |
5% |
63% |
328 |
2% |
58% |
329 |
3% |
56% |
330 |
7% |
53% |
331 |
2% |
46% |
332 |
5% |
45% |
333 |
4% |
40% |
334 |
2% |
36% |
335 |
2% |
35% |
336 |
4% |
32% |
337 |
5% |
29% |
338 |
2% |
24% |
339 |
2% |
22% |
340 |
2% |
20% |
341 |
3% |
19% |
342 |
2% |
15% |
343 |
0.9% |
13% |
344 |
0.6% |
12% |
345 |
2% |
11% |
346 |
2% |
10% |
347 |
2% |
8% |
348 |
1.4% |
7% |
349 |
2% |
5% |
350 |
1.4% |
3% |
351 |
0.5% |
2% |
352 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
353 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
354 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
355 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
356 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
357 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
358 |
0% |
0.1% |
359 |
0% |
0.1% |
360 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
210 |
0% |
100% |
211 |
0% |
99.9% |
212 |
0% |
99.9% |
213 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
214 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
215 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
216 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
217 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
218 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
219 |
1.1% |
98% |
220 |
1.4% |
97% |
221 |
2% |
96% |
222 |
2% |
94% |
223 |
2% |
93% |
224 |
2% |
91% |
225 |
0.7% |
89% |
226 |
1.4% |
89% |
227 |
2% |
87% |
228 |
3% |
85% |
229 |
2% |
83% |
230 |
1.3% |
81% |
231 |
3% |
79% |
232 |
2% |
76% |
233 |
4% |
74% |
234 |
3% |
70% |
235 |
3% |
67% |
236 |
5% |
64% |
237 |
2% |
59% |
238 |
4% |
58% |
239 |
2% |
53% |
240 |
5% |
51% |
241 |
2% |
46% |
242 |
4% |
44% |
243 |
1.5% |
40% |
244 |
3% |
39% |
245 |
2% |
36% |
246 |
5% |
34% |
247 |
5% |
29% |
248 |
6% |
24% |
249 |
2% |
18% |
250 |
3% |
15% |
251 |
4% |
12% |
252 |
2% |
8% |
253 |
1.0% |
7% |
254 |
1.1% |
6% |
255 |
2% |
5% |
256 |
0.7% |
3% |
257 |
0.7% |
2% |
258 |
0.4% |
2% |
259 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
261 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
262 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
263 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
264 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
265 |
0% |
0.3% |
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
274 |
0% |
0% |
Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
1 |
3% |
100% |
2 |
9% |
97% |
3 |
13% |
88% |
4 |
17% |
74% |
5 |
16% |
57% |
6 |
11% |
40% |
7 |
8% |
30% |
8 |
7% |
22% |
9 |
6% |
15% |
10 |
5% |
9% |
11 |
0.8% |
3% |
12 |
0.8% |
3% |
13 |
1.0% |
2% |
14 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
15 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
16 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
17 |
0% |
0.1% |
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
20 |
0% |
0% |
UK Independence Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
100% |
100% |
1 |
0% |
0% |
Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
23 |
0% |
100% |
24 |
0% |
99.9% |
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
26 |
0% |
99.9% |
27 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
28 |
0% |
99.9% |
29 |
0% |
99.8% |
30 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
31 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
32 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
33 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
34 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
35 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
36 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
37 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
38 |
0% |
99.2% |
39 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
40 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
41 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
42 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
43 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
44 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
45 |
0.6% |
98% |
46 |
2% |
97% |
47 |
2% |
96% |
48 |
1.3% |
94% |
49 |
3% |
93% |
50 |
3% |
90% |
51 |
6% |
86% |
52 |
10% |
80% |
53 |
3% |
70% |
54 |
26% |
66% |
55 |
22% |
40% |
56 |
13% |
18% |
57 |
3% |
5% |
58 |
2% |
2% |
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
60 |
0% |
0% |
Green Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
96% |
100% |
1 |
4% |
4% |
2 |
0% |
0% |
Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
0 |
3% |
100% |
1 |
4% |
97% |
2 |
5% |
92% |
3 |
46% |
88% |
4 |
11% |
42% |
5 |
30% |
31% |
6 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
8 |
0% |
0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
390 |
387 |
375–403 |
372–406 |
369–408 |
361–412 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
387 |
383 |
372–399 |
369–402 |
366–404 |
358–408 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
339 |
335 |
324–350 |
323–354 |
320–356 |
317–361 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
334 |
333 |
322–349 |
321–352 |
318–354 |
315–358 |
Conservative Party |
331 |
330 |
319–345 |
318–349 |
315–350 |
312–354 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
299 |
302 |
287–313 |
283–314 |
282–317 |
278–320 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
296 |
299 |
283–310 |
280–311 |
278–314 |
274–317 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
291 |
297 |
282–308 |
278–309 |
276–312 |
271–315 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
288 |
293 |
278–304 |
275–306 |
272–309 |
268–312 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
243 |
249 |
233–260 |
230–263 |
228–266 |
224–274 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
240 |
245 |
229–257 |
226–260 |
224–263 |
220–271 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
235 |
243 |
229–254 |
225–257 |
223–260 |
219–265 |
Labour Party |
232 |
240 |
224–251 |
221–254 |
219–256 |
215–262 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
348 |
0% |
100% |
349 |
0% |
99.9% |
350 |
0% |
99.9% |
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
352 |
0% |
99.9% |
353 |
0% |
99.9% |
354 |
0% |
99.9% |
355 |
0% |
99.8% |
356 |
0% |
99.8% |
357 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
358 |
0% |
99.7% |
359 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
360 |
0% |
99.6% |
361 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
362 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
363 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
364 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
365 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
366 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
367 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
368 |
0.5% |
98% |
369 |
0.9% |
98% |
370 |
0.5% |
97% |
371 |
0.8% |
96% |
372 |
0.7% |
96% |
373 |
2% |
95% |
374 |
2% |
93% |
375 |
3% |
91% |
376 |
2% |
88% |
377 |
4% |
86% |
378 |
3% |
82% |
379 |
4% |
79% |
380 |
5% |
75% |
381 |
4% |
71% |
382 |
4% |
67% |
383 |
2% |
62% |
384 |
2% |
60% |
385 |
3% |
58% |
386 |
3% |
55% |
387 |
4% |
52% |
388 |
4% |
48% |
389 |
3% |
44% |
390 |
4% |
41% |
391 |
3% |
37% |
392 |
2% |
34% |
393 |
3% |
32% |
394 |
3% |
28% |
395 |
2% |
25% |
396 |
3% |
23% |
397 |
2% |
20% |
398 |
2% |
19% |
399 |
2% |
17% |
400 |
2% |
15% |
401 |
1.3% |
13% |
402 |
1.4% |
12% |
403 |
2% |
10% |
404 |
1.4% |
9% |
405 |
2% |
7% |
406 |
1.5% |
6% |
407 |
1.3% |
4% |
408 |
0.9% |
3% |
409 |
0.7% |
2% |
410 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
411 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
412 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
413 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
414 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
415 |
0% |
0.1% |
416 |
0% |
0.1% |
417 |
0% |
0.1% |
418 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
345 |
0% |
100% |
346 |
0% |
99.9% |
347 |
0% |
99.9% |
348 |
0% |
99.9% |
349 |
0% |
99.9% |
350 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
351 |
0% |
99.9% |
352 |
0% |
99.8% |
353 |
0% |
99.8% |
354 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
355 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
356 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
357 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
358 |
0% |
99.5% |
359 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
360 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
361 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
362 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
363 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
364 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
365 |
0.2% |
98% |
366 |
0.7% |
98% |
367 |
0.9% |
97% |
368 |
0.9% |
96% |
369 |
0.7% |
95% |
370 |
2% |
95% |
371 |
2% |
92% |
372 |
3% |
90% |
373 |
3% |
88% |
374 |
4% |
85% |
375 |
5% |
81% |
376 |
4% |
76% |
377 |
4% |
73% |
378 |
4% |
69% |
379 |
4% |
65% |
380 |
2% |
61% |
381 |
2% |
59% |
382 |
3% |
57% |
383 |
4% |
54% |
384 |
4% |
50% |
385 |
4% |
46% |
386 |
3% |
42% |
387 |
3% |
40% |
388 |
4% |
36% |
389 |
2% |
32% |
390 |
3% |
30% |
391 |
4% |
28% |
392 |
2% |
24% |
393 |
1.4% |
21% |
394 |
2% |
20% |
395 |
2% |
18% |
396 |
2% |
16% |
397 |
2% |
14% |
398 |
2% |
12% |
399 |
2% |
10% |
400 |
1.2% |
9% |
401 |
1.0% |
7% |
402 |
2% |
6% |
403 |
1.4% |
5% |
404 |
2% |
3% |
405 |
0.5% |
2% |
406 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
407 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
408 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
409 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
410 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
411 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
412 |
0% |
0.1% |
413 |
0% |
0.1% |
414 |
0% |
0.1% |
415 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
312 |
0% |
100% |
313 |
0% |
99.9% |
314 |
0% |
99.9% |
315 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
316 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
317 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
318 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
319 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
320 |
1.2% |
98% |
321 |
0.7% |
97% |
322 |
0.9% |
96% |
323 |
3% |
96% |
324 |
3% |
93% |
325 |
6% |
89% |
326 |
4% |
83% |
327 |
2% |
80% |
328 |
6% |
77% |
329 |
3% |
72% |
330 |
2% |
69% |
331 |
3% |
67% |
332 |
4% |
63% |
333 |
3% |
59% |
334 |
2% |
56% |
335 |
5% |
54% |
336 |
3% |
49% |
337 |
2% |
46% |
338 |
4% |
44% |
339 |
4% |
40% |
340 |
4% |
36% |
341 |
1.4% |
32% |
342 |
4% |
31% |
343 |
4% |
27% |
344 |
2% |
23% |
345 |
2% |
21% |
346 |
2% |
19% |
347 |
2% |
17% |
348 |
2% |
15% |
349 |
2% |
13% |
350 |
0.9% |
11% |
351 |
1.0% |
10% |
352 |
2% |
9% |
353 |
1.5% |
7% |
354 |
2% |
5% |
355 |
0.8% |
3% |
356 |
0.8% |
3% |
357 |
0.6% |
2% |
358 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
359 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
360 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
361 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
362 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
363 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
366 |
0% |
0.1% |
367 |
0% |
0.1% |
368 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
310 |
0% |
100% |
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
312 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
313 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
314 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
315 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
316 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
317 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
318 |
0.6% |
98% |
319 |
1.4% |
97% |
320 |
0.7% |
96% |
321 |
3% |
95% |
322 |
3% |
92% |
323 |
3% |
90% |
324 |
4% |
87% |
325 |
5% |
83% |
326 |
6% |
77% |
327 |
2% |
71% |
328 |
2% |
69% |
329 |
3% |
67% |
330 |
5% |
64% |
331 |
2% |
59% |
332 |
2% |
57% |
333 |
8% |
55% |
334 |
2% |
47% |
335 |
4% |
46% |
336 |
3% |
42% |
337 |
2% |
39% |
338 |
3% |
36% |
339 |
3% |
33% |
340 |
4% |
30% |
341 |
3% |
26% |
342 |
2% |
24% |
343 |
3% |
21% |
344 |
2% |
19% |
345 |
1.2% |
17% |
346 |
2% |
16% |
347 |
2% |
14% |
348 |
1.5% |
12% |
349 |
1.0% |
11% |
350 |
2% |
10% |
351 |
2% |
8% |
352 |
2% |
6% |
353 |
1.5% |
5% |
354 |
0.8% |
3% |
355 |
1.1% |
2% |
356 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
357 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
358 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
359 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
360 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
361 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
365 |
0% |
0% |
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
307 |
0% |
100% |
308 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
309 |
0% |
99.9% |
310 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
311 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
312 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
313 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
314 |
0.7% |
98% |
315 |
0.7% |
98% |
316 |
0.8% |
97% |
317 |
0.6% |
96% |
318 |
4% |
96% |
319 |
2% |
92% |
320 |
5% |
89% |
321 |
7% |
85% |
322 |
5% |
78% |
323 |
5% |
74% |
324 |
2% |
69% |
325 |
1.2% |
67% |
326 |
3% |
66% |
327 |
5% |
63% |
328 |
2% |
58% |
329 |
3% |
56% |
330 |
7% |
53% |
331 |
2% |
46% |
332 |
5% |
45% |
333 |
4% |
40% |
334 |
2% |
36% |
335 |
2% |
35% |
336 |
4% |
32% |
337 |
5% |
29% |
338 |
2% |
24% |
339 |
2% |
22% |
340 |
2% |
20% |
341 |
3% |
19% |
342 |
2% |
15% |
343 |
0.9% |
13% |
344 |
0.6% |
12% |
345 |
2% |
11% |
346 |
2% |
10% |
347 |
2% |
8% |
348 |
1.4% |
7% |
349 |
2% |
5% |
350 |
1.4% |
3% |
351 |
0.5% |
2% |
352 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
353 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
354 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
355 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
356 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
357 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
358 |
0% |
0.1% |
359 |
0% |
0.1% |
360 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
273 |
0% |
100% |
274 |
0% |
99.9% |
275 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
276 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
277 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
278 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
279 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
280 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
281 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
282 |
1.5% |
98% |
283 |
2% |
97% |
284 |
1.4% |
95% |
285 |
2% |
93% |
286 |
2% |
92% |
287 |
2% |
90% |
288 |
0.6% |
89% |
289 |
1.0% |
88% |
290 |
2% |
87% |
291 |
3% |
84% |
292 |
2% |
81% |
293 |
2% |
80% |
294 |
2% |
78% |
295 |
5% |
76% |
296 |
3% |
71% |
297 |
2% |
68% |
298 |
2% |
65% |
299 |
3% |
63% |
300 |
5% |
60% |
301 |
2% |
55% |
302 |
7% |
53% |
303 |
3% |
47% |
304 |
3% |
44% |
305 |
4% |
41% |
306 |
3% |
37% |
307 |
1.3% |
34% |
308 |
2% |
33% |
309 |
5% |
31% |
310 |
5% |
26% |
311 |
7% |
22% |
312 |
4% |
15% |
313 |
2% |
11% |
314 |
4% |
8% |
315 |
0.6% |
4% |
316 |
0.8% |
4% |
317 |
0.7% |
3% |
318 |
0.7% |
2% |
319 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
320 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
321 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
322 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
323 |
0% |
0.2% |
324 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
326 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
268 |
0% |
100% |
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
271 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
272 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
273 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
274 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
275 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
276 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
277 |
1.2% |
98.7% |
278 |
0.9% |
98% |
279 |
1.4% |
97% |
280 |
2% |
95% |
281 |
2% |
94% |
282 |
2% |
92% |
283 |
1.0% |
90% |
284 |
1.4% |
89% |
285 |
2% |
88% |
286 |
2% |
86% |
287 |
1.4% |
84% |
288 |
2% |
83% |
289 |
3% |
81% |
290 |
2% |
79% |
291 |
3% |
76% |
292 |
4% |
74% |
293 |
3% |
69% |
294 |
3% |
67% |
295 |
2% |
64% |
296 |
3% |
61% |
297 |
4% |
58% |
298 |
2% |
54% |
299 |
8% |
53% |
300 |
2% |
45% |
301 |
2% |
43% |
302 |
5% |
41% |
303 |
3% |
36% |
304 |
2% |
33% |
305 |
2% |
31% |
306 |
6% |
29% |
307 |
5% |
23% |
308 |
4% |
17% |
309 |
3% |
13% |
310 |
3% |
10% |
311 |
3% |
8% |
312 |
0.7% |
5% |
313 |
1.4% |
4% |
314 |
0.6% |
3% |
315 |
0.9% |
2% |
316 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
317 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
318 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
319 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
320 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
323 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
265 |
0% |
100% |
266 |
0% |
99.9% |
267 |
0% |
99.9% |
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
269 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
270 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
271 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
272 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
273 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
274 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
275 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
276 |
0.9% |
98% |
277 |
0.8% |
97% |
278 |
2% |
96% |
279 |
1.4% |
95% |
280 |
2% |
93% |
281 |
1.0% |
91% |
282 |
0.9% |
90% |
283 |
2% |
89% |
284 |
2% |
87% |
285 |
2% |
85% |
286 |
2% |
83% |
287 |
2% |
81% |
288 |
2% |
79% |
289 |
4% |
77% |
290 |
4% |
73% |
291 |
1.2% |
69% |
292 |
4% |
68% |
293 |
4% |
64% |
294 |
4% |
60% |
295 |
2% |
56% |
296 |
3% |
54% |
297 |
5% |
51% |
298 |
2% |
46% |
299 |
3% |
44% |
300 |
4% |
41% |
301 |
3% |
36% |
302 |
2% |
33% |
303 |
3% |
31% |
304 |
5% |
28% |
305 |
2% |
22% |
306 |
4% |
20% |
307 |
6% |
17% |
308 |
3% |
10% |
309 |
3% |
7% |
310 |
0.9% |
4% |
311 |
0.7% |
4% |
312 |
1.2% |
3% |
313 |
0.3% |
2% |
314 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
315 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
316 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
317 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
321 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
261 |
0% |
100% |
262 |
0% |
99.9% |
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
264 |
0% |
99.9% |
265 |
0% |
99.9% |
266 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
267 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
268 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
269 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
270 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
271 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
272 |
0.7% |
98% |
273 |
1.1% |
97% |
274 |
0.9% |
96% |
275 |
2% |
95% |
276 |
2% |
94% |
277 |
2% |
92% |
278 |
2% |
90% |
279 |
2% |
89% |
280 |
2% |
87% |
281 |
2% |
86% |
282 |
2% |
84% |
283 |
3% |
82% |
284 |
2% |
79% |
285 |
2% |
77% |
286 |
4% |
76% |
287 |
3% |
72% |
288 |
3% |
69% |
289 |
4% |
65% |
290 |
3% |
62% |
291 |
5% |
59% |
292 |
3% |
54% |
293 |
2% |
52% |
294 |
5% |
50% |
295 |
2% |
44% |
296 |
3% |
43% |
297 |
4% |
40% |
298 |
6% |
36% |
299 |
2% |
30% |
300 |
2% |
29% |
301 |
5% |
26% |
302 |
4% |
21% |
303 |
3% |
17% |
304 |
5% |
14% |
305 |
3% |
9% |
306 |
2% |
6% |
307 |
0.9% |
4% |
308 |
0.7% |
3% |
309 |
0.8% |
3% |
310 |
0.4% |
2% |
311 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
312 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
313 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
314 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
317 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
218 |
0% |
100% |
219 |
0% |
99.9% |
220 |
0% |
99.9% |
221 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
222 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
223 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
224 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
225 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
226 |
0.6% |
99.2% |
227 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
228 |
2% |
98% |
229 |
1.3% |
97% |
230 |
2% |
95% |
231 |
1.0% |
94% |
232 |
1.2% |
92% |
233 |
2% |
91% |
234 |
2% |
90% |
235 |
2% |
88% |
236 |
2% |
86% |
237 |
2% |
84% |
238 |
2% |
82% |
239 |
1.4% |
80% |
240 |
3% |
78% |
241 |
4% |
76% |
242 |
3% |
72% |
243 |
2% |
69% |
244 |
4% |
67% |
245 |
3% |
64% |
246 |
3% |
60% |
247 |
4% |
58% |
248 |
4% |
54% |
249 |
4% |
50% |
250 |
3% |
46% |
251 |
2% |
43% |
252 |
2% |
41% |
253 |
4% |
39% |
254 |
4% |
35% |
255 |
4% |
31% |
256 |
4% |
27% |
257 |
5% |
24% |
258 |
3% |
19% |
259 |
3% |
15% |
260 |
3% |
12% |
261 |
2% |
10% |
262 |
2% |
8% |
263 |
0.7% |
5% |
264 |
0.9% |
5% |
265 |
0.9% |
4% |
266 |
0.7% |
3% |
267 |
0.2% |
2% |
268 |
0.3% |
2% |
269 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
270 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
271 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
272 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
273 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
274 |
0% |
0.5% |
275 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
276 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
277 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
278 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
279 |
0% |
0.2% |
280 |
0% |
0.2% |
281 |
0% |
0.2% |
282 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
287 |
0% |
0.1% |
288 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
215 |
0% |
100% |
216 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
217 |
0% |
99.9% |
218 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
219 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
220 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
221 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
222 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
223 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
224 |
1.0% |
98% |
225 |
1.3% |
97% |
226 |
2% |
96% |
227 |
2% |
94% |
228 |
1.5% |
93% |
229 |
2% |
91% |
230 |
1.5% |
90% |
231 |
1.3% |
88% |
232 |
2% |
87% |
233 |
2% |
85% |
234 |
2% |
83% |
235 |
2% |
81% |
236 |
3% |
79% |
237 |
3% |
77% |
238 |
3% |
74% |
239 |
3% |
71% |
240 |
3% |
68% |
241 |
3% |
65% |
242 |
3% |
62% |
243 |
3% |
59% |
244 |
4% |
56% |
245 |
4% |
52% |
246 |
3% |
48% |
247 |
3% |
45% |
248 |
2% |
42% |
249 |
3% |
40% |
250 |
4% |
37% |
251 |
4% |
33% |
252 |
5% |
29% |
253 |
4% |
25% |
254 |
3% |
21% |
255 |
4% |
18% |
256 |
2% |
14% |
257 |
3% |
12% |
258 |
1.5% |
9% |
259 |
2% |
7% |
260 |
0.8% |
5% |
261 |
0.7% |
4% |
262 |
0.5% |
4% |
263 |
0.9% |
3% |
264 |
0.5% |
2% |
265 |
0.4% |
2% |
266 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
267 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
268 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
269 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
270 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
271 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
272 |
0% |
0.4% |
273 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
274 |
0% |
0.4% |
275 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
276 |
0% |
0.2% |
277 |
0% |
0.2% |
278 |
0% |
0.2% |
279 |
0% |
0.1% |
280 |
0% |
0.1% |
281 |
0% |
0.1% |
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
285 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
213 |
0% |
100% |
214 |
0% |
99.9% |
215 |
0% |
99.9% |
216 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
217 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
218 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
219 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
220 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
221 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
222 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
223 |
2% |
98% |
224 |
1.2% |
97% |
225 |
2% |
96% |
226 |
2% |
94% |
227 |
0.8% |
92% |
228 |
1.1% |
91% |
229 |
2% |
90% |
230 |
1.3% |
88% |
231 |
3% |
87% |
232 |
2% |
84% |
233 |
2% |
82% |
234 |
3% |
80% |
235 |
1.3% |
77% |
236 |
4% |
76% |
237 |
3% |
71% |
238 |
3% |
68% |
239 |
4% |
66% |
240 |
3% |
62% |
241 |
4% |
60% |
242 |
2% |
55% |
243 |
5% |
53% |
244 |
3% |
48% |
245 |
4% |
45% |
246 |
2% |
41% |
247 |
2% |
40% |
248 |
2% |
37% |
249 |
5% |
35% |
250 |
5% |
30% |
251 |
4% |
26% |
252 |
4% |
22% |
253 |
6% |
18% |
254 |
3% |
12% |
255 |
2% |
10% |
256 |
2% |
8% |
257 |
2% |
6% |
258 |
1.2% |
4% |
259 |
0.7% |
3% |
260 |
0.7% |
3% |
261 |
0.5% |
2% |
262 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
263 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
264 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
265 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
266 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
267 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
268 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
269 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
270 |
0% |
0.2% |
271 |
0% |
0.2% |
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
277 |
0% |
0% |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
210 |
0% |
100% |
211 |
0% |
99.9% |
212 |
0% |
99.9% |
213 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
214 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
215 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
216 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
217 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
218 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
219 |
1.1% |
98% |
220 |
1.4% |
97% |
221 |
2% |
96% |
222 |
2% |
94% |
223 |
2% |
93% |
224 |
2% |
91% |
225 |
0.7% |
89% |
226 |
1.4% |
89% |
227 |
2% |
87% |
228 |
3% |
85% |
229 |
2% |
83% |
230 |
1.3% |
81% |
231 |
3% |
79% |
232 |
2% |
76% |
233 |
4% |
74% |
234 |
3% |
70% |
235 |
3% |
67% |
236 |
5% |
64% |
237 |
2% |
59% |
238 |
4% |
58% |
239 |
2% |
53% |
240 |
5% |
51% |
241 |
2% |
46% |
242 |
4% |
44% |
243 |
1.5% |
40% |
244 |
3% |
39% |
245 |
2% |
36% |
246 |
5% |
34% |
247 |
5% |
29% |
248 |
6% |
24% |
249 |
2% |
18% |
250 |
3% |
15% |
251 |
4% |
12% |
252 |
2% |
8% |
253 |
1.0% |
7% |
254 |
1.1% |
6% |
255 |
2% |
5% |
256 |
0.7% |
3% |
257 |
0.7% |
2% |
258 |
0.4% |
2% |
259 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
260 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
261 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
262 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
263 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
264 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
265 |
0% |
0.3% |
266 |
0% |
0.2% |
267 |
0% |
0.2% |
268 |
0% |
0.2% |
269 |
0% |
0.1% |
270 |
0% |
0.1% |
271 |
0% |
0.1% |
272 |
0% |
0.1% |
273 |
0% |
0.1% |
274 |
0% |
0% |
Opinion Poll
- Pollster: Opinium
- Media: —
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 June 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 1992
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.59%