Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Herald, 6–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 46.0% 43.7–47.4% 43.2–47.9% 42.8–48.4% 41.9–49.2%
Labour Party 30.4% 33.0% 31.0–34.4% 30.5–34.9% 30.1–35.4% 29.3–36.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 8.0% 7.0–9.0% 6.7–9.3% 6.5–9.6% 6.1–10.1%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.5–6.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Green Party 3.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 357 346–374 341–379 337–382 328–387
Labour Party 232 213 196–228 190–234 187–240 182–253
Liberal Democrats 8 6 3–13 2–14 1–16 0–18
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 50 39–55 30–56 24–56 10–57
Green Party 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 5 4–7 4–8 3–8 3–11

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0.1% 99.5%
330 0.2% 99.3%
331 0.1% 99.2%
332 0.2% 99.1%
333 0.3% 98.9%
334 0.3% 98.6%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.5% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.5% 97%
339 0.5% 97%
340 0.5% 96%
341 1.1% 96%
342 1.1% 95%
343 0.8% 94%
344 0.6% 93%
345 1.3% 92%
346 1.1% 91%
347 3% 90%
348 2% 87%
349 5% 85%
350 4% 80%
351 4% 76%
352 4% 72%
353 4% 68%
354 5% 65%
355 4% 60%
356 4% 55%
357 4% 51%
358 2% 48%
359 2% 45%
360 2% 43%
361 3% 41%
362 2% 38%
363 2% 36%
364 3% 34%
365 2% 31%
366 3% 28%
367 3% 26%
368 3% 23%
369 2% 19%
370 1.5% 17%
371 1.5% 15%
372 2% 14%
373 1.4% 12%
374 1.5% 10%
375 1.1% 9%
376 0.6% 8%
377 0.8% 7%
378 0.8% 6%
379 1.1% 5%
380 0.8% 4%
381 0.7% 4%
382 0.6% 3%
383 0.5% 2%
384 0.4% 2%
385 0.3% 1.3%
386 0.3% 1.0%
387 0.2% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
175 0% 100%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.8%
180 0.1% 99.8%
181 0.1% 99.7%
182 0.2% 99.6%
183 0.3% 99.4%
184 0.4% 99.1%
185 0.4% 98.7%
186 0.6% 98%
187 0.5% 98%
188 0.6% 97%
189 0.8% 97%
190 0.9% 96%
191 0.6% 95%
192 0.8% 94%
193 1.3% 93%
194 0.9% 92%
195 1.0% 91%
196 1.1% 90%
197 2% 89%
198 1.3% 87%
199 2% 86%
200 3% 84%
201 2% 81%
202 3% 79%
203 2% 75%
204 2% 73%
205 2% 70%
206 3% 69%
207 3% 66%
208 1.0% 63%
209 2% 62%
210 2% 60%
211 3% 58%
212 3% 55%
213 4% 53%
214 4% 48%
215 4% 44%
216 4% 40%
217 5% 36%
218 3% 31%
219 3% 28%
220 3% 25%
221 2% 22%
222 2% 19%
223 2% 17%
224 1.2% 15%
225 2% 14%
226 1.2% 12%
227 0.8% 11%
228 0.8% 10%
229 1.2% 9%
230 0.5% 8%
231 0.8% 8%
232 0.9% 7%
233 0.8% 6%
234 0.5% 5%
235 0.5% 5%
236 0.4% 4%
237 0.4% 4%
238 0.3% 3%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.3% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.2% 1.4%
247 0.1% 1.2%
248 0.1% 1.1%
249 0.2% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.8%
251 0.1% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0% 0.4%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.3%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.6% 100%
1 3% 99.4%
2 6% 97%
3 8% 91%
4 10% 83%
5 11% 73%
6 13% 62%
7 9% 49%
8 7% 40%
9 6% 33%
10 7% 27%
11 5% 19%
12 3% 14%
13 4% 11%
14 3% 7%
15 1.2% 4%
16 2% 3%
17 0.8% 1.4%
18 0.2% 0.6%
19 0.1% 0.4%
20 0.1% 0.3%
21 0.1% 0.2%
22 0.1% 0.1%
23 0% 0.1%
24 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0.1% 100%
5 0% 99.9%
6 0.1% 99.8%
7 0.1% 99.8%
8 0% 99.7%
9 0.1% 99.7%
10 0.1% 99.5%
11 0% 99.5%
12 0.1% 99.4%
13 0.1% 99.4%
14 0.1% 99.3%
15 0.1% 99.2%
16 0.2% 99.1%
17 0.2% 98.9%
18 0.2% 98.7%
19 0.2% 98%
20 0.1% 98%
21 0.2% 98%
22 0.1% 98%
23 0.3% 98%
24 0.4% 98%
25 0.4% 97%
26 0.4% 97%
27 0.4% 96%
28 0.3% 96%
29 0.4% 96%
30 0.7% 95%
31 0.5% 95%
32 0.7% 94%
33 0.6% 93%
34 0.4% 93%
35 0.4% 92%
36 0.4% 92%
37 0.3% 92%
38 0.7% 91%
39 1.0% 91%
40 2% 90%
41 4% 88%
42 3% 84%
43 3% 81%
44 4% 78%
45 4% 75%
46 3% 70%
47 4% 67%
48 6% 63%
49 4% 57%
50 4% 53%
51 5% 49%
52 7% 44%
53 7% 37%
54 8% 30%
55 17% 22%
56 5% 6%
57 0.3% 0.6%
58 0.2% 0.2%
59 0.1% 0.1%
60 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 24% 100%
1 76% 76%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 0.2% 100%
1 0% 99.8%
2 0.3% 99.8%
3 4% 99.5%
4 11% 95%
5 48% 84%
6 3% 36%
7 25% 33%
8 6% 7%
9 0.5% 2%
10 0.4% 1.3%
11 0.8% 0.9%
12 0% 0.1%
13 0.1% 0.1%
14 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 412 396–429 387–434 381–438 367–444
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 406 390–423 382–428 376–432 362–437
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 365 352–382 347–387 343–391 334–397
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 362 351–379 346–385 342–388 333–394
Conservative Party 331 357 346–374 341–379 337–382 328–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 274 257–285 252–290 250–295 244–303
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 269 252–280 246–285 243–289 238–298
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 266 249–279 245–284 241–288 234–297
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 261 244–274 239–279 235–283 228–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 225 208–241 203–249 200–256 194–270
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 219 202–236 197–244 194–250 188–264
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 219 201–233 196–240 193–246 188–258
Labour Party 232 213 196–228 190–234 187–240 182–253

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
352 0% 100%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.9%
356 0% 99.9%
357 0% 99.9%
358 0% 99.9%
359 0% 99.9%
360 0% 99.8%
361 0% 99.8%
362 0% 99.8%
363 0.1% 99.8%
364 0% 99.7%
365 0.1% 99.6%
366 0% 99.6%
367 0.1% 99.5%
368 0.1% 99.5%
369 0% 99.4%
370 0.1% 99.3%
371 0.1% 99.3%
372 0.1% 99.2%
373 0.1% 99.1%
374 0.2% 99.0%
375 0.2% 98.8%
376 0.2% 98.6%
377 0.2% 98%
378 0.1% 98%
379 0.2% 98%
380 0.3% 98%
381 0.1% 98%
382 0.2% 97%
383 0.2% 97%
384 0.3% 97%
385 0.6% 97%
386 0.5% 96%
387 0.8% 96%
388 0.5% 95%
389 0.2% 94%
390 0.8% 94%
391 0.5% 93%
392 0.6% 93%
393 0.7% 92%
394 0.7% 92%
395 0.7% 91%
396 1.3% 90%
397 1.4% 89%
398 1.5% 87%
399 1.5% 86%
400 1.2% 84%
401 3% 83%
402 1.2% 81%
403 3% 80%
404 2% 77%
405 3% 74%
406 3% 72%
407 4% 69%
408 4% 65%
409 3% 61%
410 2% 58%
411 5% 56%
412 3% 51%
413 4% 48%
414 3% 44%
415 3% 41%
416 3% 39%
417 2% 36%
418 2% 34%
419 2% 32%
420 2% 30%
421 2% 28%
422 3% 27%
423 3% 24%
424 2% 21%
425 2% 19%
426 3% 16%
427 2% 14%
428 1.3% 12%
429 1.2% 11%
430 1.1% 9%
431 0.8% 8%
432 0.7% 8%
433 0.9% 7%
434 1.1% 6%
435 0.6% 5%
436 0.8% 4%
437 0.8% 3%
438 0.5% 3%
439 0.3% 2%
440 0.3% 2%
441 0.4% 2%
442 0.3% 1.1%
443 0.2% 0.8%
444 0.2% 0.6%
445 0.1% 0.3%
446 0.1% 0.2%
447 0% 0.2%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0.1%
450 0% 0.1%
451 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
347 0% 100%
348 0% 99.9%
349 0% 99.9%
350 0% 99.9%
351 0% 99.9%
352 0% 99.9%
353 0% 99.9%
354 0% 99.9%
355 0% 99.8%
356 0% 99.8%
357 0% 99.8%
358 0.1% 99.7%
359 0% 99.7%
360 0.1% 99.6%
361 0% 99.6%
362 0.1% 99.5%
363 0.1% 99.4%
364 0.1% 99.4%
365 0.1% 99.3%
366 0.1% 99.3%
367 0.1% 99.2%
368 0.1% 99.1%
369 0.2% 99.0%
370 0.2% 98.8%
371 0.2% 98.6%
372 0.3% 98%
373 0.2% 98%
374 0.1% 98%
375 0.2% 98%
376 0.2% 98%
377 0.2% 97%
378 0.4% 97%
379 0.3% 97%
380 0.6% 97%
381 0.6% 96%
382 0.5% 95%
383 0.6% 95%
384 0.3% 94%
385 0.7% 94%
386 0.8% 93%
387 0.5% 92%
388 0.6% 92%
389 0.7% 91%
390 0.8% 91%
391 1.3% 90%
392 1.4% 89%
393 1.5% 87%
394 2% 86%
395 1.4% 84%
396 3% 83%
397 1.2% 80%
398 3% 79%
399 3% 76%
400 3% 73%
401 4% 71%
402 4% 67%
403 3% 63%
404 4% 60%
405 3% 56%
406 4% 53%
407 2% 49%
408 4% 46%
409 4% 43%
410 2% 39%
411 2% 37%
412 2% 35%
413 2% 33%
414 2% 31%
415 3% 29%
416 2% 26%
417 2% 24%
418 3% 22%
419 3% 20%
420 2% 16%
421 1.4% 14%
422 2% 13%
423 1.3% 11%
424 0.9% 9%
425 0.8% 8%
426 0.8% 8%
427 1.1% 7%
428 0.6% 6%
429 0.9% 5%
430 0.7% 4%
431 0.7% 3%
432 0.6% 3%
433 0.4% 2%
434 0.4% 2%
435 0.2% 1.3%
436 0.3% 1.1%
437 0.4% 0.8%
438 0.2% 0.4%
439 0.1% 0.3%
440 0.1% 0.2%
441 0% 0.1%
442 0% 0.1%
443 0% 0.1%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
326 0% 100%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0% 99.9%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.8%
332 0.1% 99.7%
333 0.1% 99.7%
334 0.1% 99.6%
335 0.1% 99.5%
336 0.1% 99.4%
337 0.1% 99.3%
338 0.1% 99.1%
339 0.3% 99.0%
340 0.4% 98.7%
341 0.3% 98%
342 0.4% 98%
343 0.3% 98%
344 0.6% 97%
345 0.6% 97%
346 0.5% 96%
347 1.1% 96%
348 0.8% 95%
349 0.6% 94%
350 0.6% 93%
351 2% 93%
352 2% 91%
353 2% 89%
354 3% 87%
355 3% 84%
356 3% 81%
357 3% 78%
358 4% 75%
359 4% 71%
360 4% 66%
361 3% 63%
362 3% 60%
363 2% 57%
364 2% 55%
365 4% 53%
366 4% 49%
367 3% 45%
368 3% 42%
369 3% 39%
370 3% 35%
371 2% 33%
372 3% 30%
373 2% 27%
374 2% 24%
375 1.3% 22%
376 2% 21%
377 2% 19%
378 2% 18%
379 2% 16%
380 2% 14%
381 1.2% 12%
382 1.2% 10%
383 1.3% 9%
384 0.9% 8%
385 1.0% 7%
386 0.9% 6%
387 0.7% 5%
388 0.9% 4%
389 0.3% 3%
390 0.5% 3%
391 0.4% 3%
392 0.5% 2%
393 0.3% 2%
394 0.4% 1.3%
395 0.2% 0.9%
396 0.1% 0.7%
397 0.1% 0.6%
398 0.1% 0.4%
399 0.1% 0.3%
400 0.1% 0.3%
401 0% 0.2%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0.1%
406 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0.1% 99.9%
329 0% 99.8%
330 0.1% 99.8%
331 0% 99.7%
332 0.1% 99.6%
333 0.1% 99.5%
334 0.1% 99.5%
335 0.1% 99.3%
336 0.1% 99.2%
337 0.2% 99.1%
338 0.3% 98.9%
339 0.2% 98.7%
340 0.3% 98%
341 0.4% 98%
342 0.5% 98%
343 0.6% 97%
344 0.4% 97%
345 0.6% 96%
346 0.8% 96%
347 0.9% 95%
348 0.8% 94%
349 1.0% 93%
350 1.0% 92%
351 1.2% 91%
352 2% 90%
353 3% 88%
354 4% 85%
355 3% 82%
356 4% 79%
357 4% 74%
358 4% 70%
359 4% 66%
360 4% 62%
361 4% 58%
362 4% 54%
363 3% 50%
364 2% 47%
365 2% 45%
366 3% 43%
367 3% 39%
368 2% 37%
369 3% 35%
370 2% 32%
371 3% 30%
372 2% 27%
373 3% 25%
374 3% 22%
375 2% 19%
376 1.2% 16%
377 2% 15%
378 2% 14%
379 2% 12%
380 1.3% 10%
381 0.6% 8%
382 0.8% 8%
383 0.6% 7%
384 0.7% 6%
385 1.1% 5%
386 1.0% 4%
387 0.7% 3%
388 0.4% 3%
389 0.5% 2%
390 0.3% 2%
391 0.5% 1.5%
392 0.4% 1.0%
393 0.2% 0.7%
394 0.2% 0.5%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
320 0% 100%
321 0% 99.9%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.5%
329 0.1% 99.5%
330 0.2% 99.3%
331 0.1% 99.2%
332 0.2% 99.1%
333 0.3% 98.9%
334 0.3% 98.6%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.5% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.5% 97%
339 0.5% 97%
340 0.5% 96%
341 1.1% 96%
342 1.1% 95%
343 0.8% 94%
344 0.6% 93%
345 1.3% 92%
346 1.1% 91%
347 3% 90%
348 2% 87%
349 5% 85%
350 4% 80%
351 4% 76%
352 4% 72%
353 4% 68%
354 5% 65%
355 4% 60%
356 4% 55%
357 4% 51%
358 2% 48%
359 2% 45%
360 2% 43%
361 3% 41%
362 2% 38%
363 2% 36%
364 3% 34%
365 2% 31%
366 3% 28%
367 3% 26%
368 3% 23%
369 2% 19%
370 1.5% 17%
371 1.5% 15%
372 2% 14%
373 1.4% 12%
374 1.5% 10%
375 1.1% 9%
376 0.6% 8%
377 0.8% 7%
378 0.8% 6%
379 1.1% 5%
380 0.8% 4%
381 0.7% 4%
382 0.6% 3%
383 0.5% 2%
384 0.4% 2%
385 0.3% 1.3%
386 0.3% 1.0%
387 0.2% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
237 0% 100%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.7%
244 0.2% 99.6%
245 0.3% 99.5%
246 0.3% 99.1%
247 0.4% 98.8%
248 0.5% 98%
249 0.3% 98%
250 0.8% 98%
251 0.8% 97%
252 1.2% 96%
253 0.7% 95%
254 0.8% 94%
255 0.6% 93%
256 0.8% 93%
257 2% 92%
258 1.2% 90%
259 2% 89%
260 2% 87%
261 1.2% 85%
262 2% 84%
263 4% 82%
264 3% 78%
265 3% 75%
266 2% 72%
267 2% 70%
268 3% 67%
269 2% 64%
270 2% 62%
271 2% 60%
272 2% 58%
273 2% 55%
274 4% 53%
275 4% 49%
276 4% 46%
277 5% 41%
278 4% 36%
279 3% 32%
280 4% 29%
281 4% 25%
282 5% 21%
283 3% 16%
284 2% 13%
285 2% 11%
286 1.3% 9%
287 0.5% 8%
288 1.0% 8%
289 1.0% 7%
290 1.1% 6%
291 0.6% 5%
292 0.5% 4%
293 0.4% 3%
294 0.5% 3%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.4% 2%
297 0.2% 2%
298 0.3% 1.5%
299 0.2% 1.2%
300 0.2% 1.0%
301 0.1% 0.9%
302 0.1% 0.7%
303 0.1% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.4%
307 0% 0.3%
308 0% 0.2%
309 0.1% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.7%
238 0.2% 99.6%
239 0.3% 99.4%
240 0.4% 99.1%
241 0.4% 98.6%
242 0.3% 98%
243 0.4% 98%
244 0.5% 97%
245 1.1% 97%
246 1.3% 96%
247 0.7% 95%
248 0.4% 94%
249 0.6% 93%
250 0.8% 93%
251 1.2% 92%
252 2% 91%
253 2% 88%
254 2% 86%
255 1.1% 85%
256 2% 84%
257 3% 82%
258 4% 79%
259 2% 75%
260 3% 73%
261 2% 70%
262 2% 68%
263 3% 67%
264 3% 64%
265 3% 61%
266 2% 58%
267 2% 56%
268 3% 54%
269 3% 51%
270 4% 47%
271 5% 43%
272 3% 38%
273 5% 35%
274 4% 30%
275 4% 27%
276 3% 23%
277 4% 19%
278 3% 16%
279 2% 13%
280 1.5% 11%
281 1.0% 9%
282 0.8% 8%
283 1.0% 7%
284 0.9% 6%
285 0.9% 5%
286 0.6% 5%
287 0.5% 4%
288 0.6% 3%
289 0.4% 3%
290 0.4% 2%
291 0.4% 2%
292 0.2% 2%
293 0.3% 1.5%
294 0.1% 1.1%
295 0.2% 1.0%
296 0.1% 0.8%
297 0.1% 0.7%
298 0.1% 0.6%
299 0.1% 0.5%
300 0.1% 0.4%
301 0.1% 0.3%
302 0.1% 0.3%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0.1% 0.2%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0.1% 99.9%
231 0.1% 99.8%
232 0.1% 99.8%
233 0.1% 99.7%
234 0.1% 99.6%
235 0.1% 99.5%
236 0.2% 99.3%
237 0.3% 99.1%
238 0.4% 98.9%
239 0.4% 98%
240 0.4% 98%
241 0.6% 98%
242 0.3% 97%
243 0.8% 97%
244 0.7% 96%
245 1.0% 95%
246 1.0% 94%
247 0.8% 93%
248 1.4% 92%
249 1.1% 91%
250 1.3% 90%
251 2% 89%
252 2% 87%
253 2% 85%
254 2% 83%
255 2% 81%
256 1.2% 79%
257 2% 78%
258 2% 76%
259 3% 73%
260 2% 70%
261 3% 68%
262 3% 65%
263 3% 62%
264 3% 59%
265 4% 56%
266 4% 52%
267 2% 48%
268 2% 45%
269 2% 43%
270 2% 41%
271 4% 38%
272 5% 35%
273 3% 30%
274 4% 27%
275 3% 23%
276 3% 20%
277 3% 17%
278 3% 14%
279 2% 11%
280 2% 9%
281 0.8% 8%
282 0.6% 7%
283 0.9% 6%
284 0.8% 5%
285 0.7% 5%
286 0.7% 4%
287 0.4% 3%
288 0.5% 3%
289 0.4% 2%
290 0.3% 2%
291 0.3% 2%
292 0.4% 1.5%
293 0.2% 1.1%
294 0.1% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.1% 0.7%
297 0.1% 0.6%
298 0.1% 0.4%
299 0.1% 0.4%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
220 0% 100%
221 0% 99.9%
222 0% 99.9%
223 0% 99.9%
224 0% 99.9%
225 0% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.8%
227 0.1% 99.7%
228 0.2% 99.6%
229 0.2% 99.4%
230 0.2% 99.2%
231 0.2% 99.0%
232 0.3% 98.8%
233 0.4% 98.5%
234 0.5% 98%
235 0.6% 98%
236 0.5% 97%
237 0.7% 97%
238 0.6% 96%
239 0.9% 95%
240 0.9% 94%
241 0.9% 93%
242 0.8% 93%
243 2% 92%
244 1.3% 90%
245 2% 89%
246 2% 87%
247 3% 85%
248 2% 83%
249 1.4% 81%
250 1.5% 80%
251 2% 78%
252 2% 76%
253 2% 74%
254 3% 72%
255 2% 69%
256 3% 67%
257 3% 64%
258 4% 60%
259 4% 57%
260 3% 53%
261 4% 50%
262 2% 46%
263 2% 44%
264 3% 42%
265 3% 39%
266 3% 35%
267 4% 32%
268 3% 29%
269 4% 26%
270 3% 22%
271 4% 19%
272 2% 15%
273 3% 13%
274 2% 10%
275 1.3% 9%
276 0.6% 7%
277 0.6% 7%
278 0.9% 6%
279 1.0% 5%
280 0.7% 4%
281 0.5% 4%
282 0.4% 3%
283 0.3% 3%
284 0.5% 2%
285 0.3% 2%
286 0.3% 2%
287 0.3% 1.4%
288 0.1% 1.0%
289 0.1% 0.9%
290 0.1% 0.8%
291 0.1% 0.7%
292 0.1% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0.1% 0.3%
295 0.1% 0.3%
296 0% 0.2%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0% 0.2%
299 0% 0.1%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
187 0% 100%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.1% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.8%
193 0.1% 99.8%
194 0.3% 99.6%
195 0.3% 99.3%
196 0.3% 99.0%
197 0.4% 98.8%
198 0.3% 98%
199 0.4% 98%
200 0.7% 98%
201 0.7% 97%
202 0.8% 96%
203 0.7% 95%
204 1.1% 95%
205 0.8% 93%
206 0.8% 93%
207 0.9% 92%
208 1.3% 91%
209 2% 90%
210 2% 88%
211 2% 86%
212 3% 84%
213 3% 81%
214 1.5% 78%
215 2% 76%
216 3% 74%
217 2% 72%
218 2% 70%
219 2% 68%
220 2% 66%
221 2% 64%
222 3% 61%
223 4% 58%
224 3% 54%
225 4% 52%
226 3% 48%
227 4% 45%
228 4% 41%
229 3% 38%
230 4% 34%
231 3% 30%
232 2% 27%
233 3% 25%
234 1.4% 22%
235 2% 20%
236 2% 18%
237 2% 16%
238 1.4% 15%
239 1.5% 13%
240 1.2% 12%
241 0.9% 11%
242 0.8% 10%
243 0.5% 9%
244 0.6% 8%
245 0.8% 8%
246 0.7% 7%
247 0.3% 6%
248 0.5% 6%
249 0.5% 5%
250 0.6% 5%
251 0.6% 4%
252 0.3% 4%
253 0.4% 3%
254 0.2% 3%
255 0.2% 3%
256 0.3% 3%
257 0.1% 2%
258 0.2% 2%
259 0.3% 2%
260 0.2% 2%
261 0.2% 1.5%
262 0.2% 1.3%
263 0.1% 1.1%
264 0.1% 1.0%
265 0.1% 0.9%
266 0.1% 0.8%
267 0% 0.7%
268 0.1% 0.6%
269 0.1% 0.6%
270 0.1% 0.5%
271 0% 0.4%
272 0.1% 0.4%
273 0% 0.3%
274 0.1% 0.3%
275 0% 0.2%
276 0% 0.2%
277 0% 0.2%
278 0% 0.2%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0.1%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
181 0% 100%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.8%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.2% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.5%
189 0.3% 99.3%
190 0.3% 99.0%
191 0.3% 98.6%
192 0.3% 98%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.5% 98%
195 1.0% 97%
196 0.8% 96%
197 1.1% 95%
198 0.7% 94%
199 0.8% 93%
200 0.8% 93%
201 1.0% 92%
202 1.2% 91%
203 1.2% 90%
204 2% 88%
205 3% 87%
206 2% 84%
207 2% 82%
208 3% 80%
209 2% 77%
210 2% 74%
211 1.5% 72%
212 2% 71%
213 2% 69%
214 2% 66%
215 3% 64%
216 3% 62%
217 3% 59%
218 4% 57%
219 3% 53%
220 5% 50%
221 3% 45%
222 3% 43%
223 4% 40%
224 3% 36%
225 4% 33%
226 3% 29%
227 2% 26%
228 3% 24%
229 2% 21%
230 2% 20%
231 1.5% 17%
232 1.5% 16%
233 1.4% 14%
234 1.2% 13%
235 1.2% 12%
236 0.9% 10%
237 0.8% 10%
238 0.7% 9%
239 0.7% 8%
240 0.5% 7%
241 0.9% 7%
242 0.3% 6%
243 0.4% 6%
244 0.7% 5%
245 0.6% 5%
246 0.6% 4%
247 0.4% 3%
248 0.3% 3%
249 0.2% 3%
250 0.2% 3%
251 0.2% 2%
252 0.2% 2%
253 0.1% 2%
254 0.2% 2%
255 0.2% 2%
256 0.2% 1.5%
257 0.2% 1.3%
258 0.1% 1.1%
259 0.1% 1.0%
260 0.1% 0.9%
261 0.1% 0.8%
262 0% 0.7%
263 0.1% 0.6%
264 0.1% 0.6%
265 0% 0.5%
266 0.1% 0.5%
267 0% 0.4%
268 0.1% 0.4%
269 0.1% 0.3%
270 0% 0.2%
271 0% 0.2%
272 0% 0.2%
273 0% 0.2%
274 0% 0.1%
275 0% 0.1%
276 0% 0.1%
277 0% 0.1%
278 0% 0.1%
279 0% 0.1%
280 0% 0.1%
281 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.1% 99.8%
188 0.2% 99.7%
189 0.4% 99.5%
190 0.5% 99.1%
191 0.4% 98.6%
192 0.5% 98%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.7% 97%
195 1.1% 97%
196 0.6% 96%
197 1.0% 95%
198 0.6% 94%
199 0.9% 93%
200 1.3% 92%
201 1.2% 91%
202 2% 90%
203 0.7% 88%
204 2% 88%
205 3% 86%
206 2% 83%
207 3% 81%
208 3% 78%
209 4% 75%
210 2% 71%
211 3% 70%
212 2% 67%
213 1.4% 65%
214 2% 63%
215 2% 62%
216 3% 60%
217 3% 57%
218 3% 54%
219 4% 51%
220 5% 47%
221 4% 42%
222 5% 38%
223 4% 33%
224 3% 30%
225 3% 26%
226 3% 23%
227 3% 20%
228 2% 18%
229 2% 16%
230 2% 14%
231 1.1% 12%
232 1.0% 11%
233 0.5% 10%
234 1.2% 10%
235 0.9% 9%
236 0.7% 8%
237 0.8% 7%
238 0.7% 6%
239 0.4% 5%
240 0.5% 5%
241 0.6% 5%
242 0.4% 4%
243 0.2% 4%
244 0.5% 3%
245 0.3% 3%
246 0.3% 3%
247 0.2% 2%
248 0.2% 2%
249 0.2% 2%
250 0.2% 2%
251 0.2% 1.4%
252 0.1% 1.2%
253 0.1% 1.1%
254 0.2% 1.0%
255 0.1% 0.8%
256 0.1% 0.7%
257 0.1% 0.6%
258 0.1% 0.5%
259 0.1% 0.4%
260 0% 0.4%
261 0% 0.4%
262 0% 0.3%
263 0.1% 0.3%
264 0% 0.2%
265 0% 0.2%
266 0% 0.2%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0.1%
270 0% 0.1%
271 0% 0.1%
272 0% 0.1%
273 0% 0.1%
274 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
175 0% 100%
176 0% 99.9%
177 0% 99.9%
178 0% 99.9%
179 0.1% 99.8%
180 0.1% 99.8%
181 0.1% 99.7%
182 0.2% 99.6%
183 0.3% 99.4%
184 0.4% 99.1%
185 0.4% 98.7%
186 0.6% 98%
187 0.5% 98%
188 0.6% 97%
189 0.8% 97%
190 0.9% 96%
191 0.6% 95%
192 0.8% 94%
193 1.3% 93%
194 0.9% 92%
195 1.0% 91%
196 1.1% 90%
197 2% 89%
198 1.3% 87%
199 2% 86%
200 3% 84%
201 2% 81%
202 3% 79%
203 2% 75%
204 2% 73%
205 2% 70%
206 3% 69%
207 3% 66%
208 1.0% 63%
209 2% 62%
210 2% 60%
211 3% 58%
212 3% 55%
213 4% 53%
214 4% 48%
215 4% 44%
216 4% 40%
217 5% 36%
218 3% 31%
219 3% 28%
220 3% 25%
221 2% 22%
222 2% 19%
223 2% 17%
224 1.2% 15%
225 2% 14%
226 1.2% 12%
227 0.8% 11%
228 0.8% 10%
229 1.2% 9%
230 0.5% 8%
231 0.8% 8%
232 0.9% 7%
233 0.8% 6%
234 0.5% 5%
235 0.5% 5%
236 0.4% 4%
237 0.4% 4%
238 0.3% 3%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.3% 3%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.2% 2%
243 0.2% 2%
244 0.2% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.2% 1.4%
247 0.1% 1.2%
248 0.1% 1.1%
249 0.2% 1.0%
250 0.1% 0.8%
251 0.1% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.6%
253 0.1% 0.5%
254 0.1% 0.4%
255 0% 0.4%
256 0% 0.3%
257 0% 0.3%
258 0% 0.3%
259 0% 0.2%
260 0% 0.2%
261 0% 0.2%
262 0% 0.1%
263 0% 0.1%
264 0% 0.1%
265 0% 0.1%
266 0% 0.1%
267 0% 0.1%
268 0% 0.1%
269 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations