Opinion Poll by ComRes for The Independent, 5–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.5% 42.6–46.1% 42.1–46.6% 41.7–47.1% 40.8–47.9%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.4% 32.7–36.1% 32.2–36.5% 31.8–37.0% 31.0–37.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.5% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–10.9% 8.0–11.2% 7.5–11.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.8% 3.7–6.0% 3.4–6.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.8% 3.2–4.5% 3.0–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.6–5.3%
Green Party 3.8% 2.3% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
British National Party 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 347 324–361 319–365 319–367 312–373
Labour Party 232 225 212–248 204–252 201–261 192–271
Liberal Democrats 8 15 8–21 6–24 6–25 5–27
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 46 25–53 17–54 14–55 4–55
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 2–5 0–6 0–7 0–7
British National Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
305 0.1% 100%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.7%
312 0.2% 99.7%
313 0.1% 99.4%
314 0% 99.4%
315 0.1% 99.3%
316 0.7% 99.2%
317 0.1% 98.6%
318 0.2% 98%
319 4% 98%
320 0.1% 94%
321 0.3% 94%
322 3% 93%
323 0.3% 91%
324 4% 90%
325 0.3% 87%
326 2% 86%
327 0.8% 84%
328 0.3% 83%
329 0.5% 83%
330 0.8% 82%
331 1.5% 82%
332 1.2% 80%
333 0.3% 79%
334 0.6% 79%
335 0.1% 78%
336 0.4% 78%
337 0.6% 78%
338 4% 77%
339 2% 73%
340 4% 71%
341 1.0% 67%
342 1.0% 66%
343 3% 65%
344 0.8% 62%
345 3% 61%
346 8% 58%
347 11% 50%
348 3% 39%
349 13% 35%
350 3% 23%
351 1.4% 19%
352 2% 18%
353 0.4% 16%
354 0.5% 15%
355 1.2% 15%
356 2% 13%
357 0.7% 11%
358 0.2% 11%
359 0% 10%
360 0.2% 10%
361 2% 10%
362 0.1% 8%
363 1.3% 8%
364 0.3% 7%
365 2% 7%
366 0.7% 5%
367 3% 4%
368 0.2% 1.3%
369 0.2% 1.1%
370 0.1% 0.9%
371 0.1% 0.8%
372 0.1% 0.7%
373 0.4% 0.6%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.2%
376 0% 0.2%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0% 100%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.3% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.6%
193 0% 99.5%
194 0% 99.4%
195 0.2% 99.4%
196 0.1% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.1%
198 0.3% 99.0%
199 0.9% 98.7%
200 0.1% 98%
201 0.3% 98%
202 0.2% 97%
203 0.9% 97%
204 2% 96%
205 2% 95%
206 0.2% 93%
207 0.7% 93%
208 0% 92%
209 0% 92%
210 1.2% 92%
211 1.0% 91%
212 0.3% 90%
213 2% 90%
214 3% 88%
215 0.8% 85%
216 3% 85%
217 3% 82%
218 10% 79%
219 4% 69%
220 2% 64%
221 2% 62%
222 0.8% 60%
223 0.9% 59%
224 2% 58%
225 8% 56%
226 2% 49%
227 4% 47%
228 0.3% 43%
229 0.6% 43%
230 0.9% 42%
231 2% 41%
232 0.8% 39%
233 0.6% 38%
234 2% 38%
235 3% 36%
236 4% 33%
237 2% 29%
238 0.7% 27%
239 2% 26%
240 1.0% 25%
241 0.2% 24%
242 1.3% 23%
243 0.2% 22%
244 1.2% 22%
245 6% 21%
246 0.2% 14%
247 2% 14%
248 3% 12%
249 4% 9%
250 0.2% 6%
251 0% 5%
252 0.4% 5%
253 0.2% 5%
254 1.0% 5%
255 0.1% 4%
256 0.2% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.2% 3%
259 0.2% 3%
260 0% 3%
261 1.1% 3%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0% 2%
264 0.1% 1.5%
265 0.3% 1.4%
266 0.4% 1.1%
267 0.2% 0.8%
268 0.1% 0.6%
269 0% 0.5%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.5%
272 0% 0.5%
273 0% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.4%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0% 0.3%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0.1% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0% 100%
3 0.1% 99.9%
4 0.2% 99.8%
5 0.7% 99.6%
6 4% 98.9%
7 2% 95%
8 7% 93%
9 8% 86%
10 4% 78%
11 4% 74%
12 6% 70%
13 8% 64%
14 5% 55%
15 7% 50%
16 11% 43%
17 6% 32%
18 5% 26%
19 2% 22%
20 6% 19%
21 6% 14%
22 1.4% 8%
23 1.0% 6%
24 0.4% 5%
25 3% 5%
26 0.8% 2%
27 0.5% 0.9%
28 0.1% 0.5%
29 0.3% 0.4%
30 0% 0.1%
31 0% 0.1%
32 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
2 0.3% 100%
3 0.2% 99.7%
4 0.1% 99.6%
5 0.2% 99.4%
6 0.1% 99.3%
7 0.1% 99.2%
8 0.2% 99.1%
9 0.1% 98.9%
10 0.2% 98.8%
11 0% 98.6%
12 0% 98.6%
13 0.2% 98.6%
14 1.2% 98%
15 0.3% 97%
16 1.2% 97%
17 2% 96%
18 0.3% 94%
19 0.1% 93%
20 0.7% 93%
21 0.3% 93%
22 0.3% 92%
23 0.9% 92%
24 0.4% 91%
25 2% 91%
26 0% 89%
27 3% 89%
28 3% 86%
29 2% 84%
30 0.8% 82%
31 1.0% 81%
32 0.2% 80%
33 0.1% 80%
34 0.4% 79%
35 0.2% 79%
36 0.4% 79%
37 0.5% 79%
38 0.6% 78%
39 6% 77%
40 3% 71%
41 5% 68%
42 4% 63%
43 0.3% 59%
44 3% 59%
45 6% 56%
46 9% 50%
47 6% 42%
48 5% 35%
49 5% 31%
50 7% 26%
51 0.3% 19%
52 3% 19%
53 9% 16%
54 3% 7%
55 4% 4%
56 0.2% 0.4%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 85% 100%
1 15% 15%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 6% 100%
1 4% 94%
2 2% 91%
3 39% 89%
4 24% 50%
5 19% 26%
6 2% 7%
7 5% 5%
8 0.3% 0.3%
9 0% 0%

British National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 392 367–407 363–413 354–421 342–424
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 388 364–404 359–410 351–417 338–420
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 358 339–372 338–381 335–383 327–390
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 350 327–365 322–368 322–372 316–377
Conservative Party 331 347 324–361 319–365 319–367 312–373
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 285 271–308 266–313 265–313 259–320
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 282 267–305 263–310 260–310 255–316
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 274 260–293 251–294 249–297 242–305
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 271 255–290 248–290 244–293 238–301
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 244 228–268 221–272 215–281 211–294
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 240 225–265 218–268 211–278 208–290
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 229 216–252 208–256 204–265 198–275
Labour Party 232 225 212–248 204–252 201–261 192–271

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
329 0.1% 100%
330 0% 99.9%
331 0% 99.8%
332 0% 99.8%
333 0% 99.7%
334 0% 99.7%
335 0% 99.7%
336 0% 99.7%
337 0% 99.7%
338 0% 99.7%
339 0% 99.7%
340 0% 99.6%
341 0% 99.6%
342 0.1% 99.6%
343 0.1% 99.5%
344 0% 99.4%
345 0% 99.4%
346 0.1% 99.3%
347 0.2% 99.2%
348 0% 99.1%
349 0% 99.0%
350 0.1% 99.0%
351 0.9% 99.0%
352 0.1% 98%
353 0.2% 98%
354 0.4% 98%
355 0.1% 97%
356 0.2% 97%
357 0.3% 97%
358 0.1% 97%
359 0.3% 97%
360 0.3% 96%
361 0.1% 96%
362 0.2% 96%
363 1.0% 96%
364 0.1% 95%
365 0.2% 95%
366 0.3% 94%
367 5% 94%
368 6% 89%
369 0.4% 83%
370 1.3% 83%
371 3% 81%
372 1.0% 78%
373 0.2% 77%
374 1.5% 77%
375 1.0% 76%
376 1.1% 75%
377 3% 74%
378 0.7% 70%
379 2% 70%
380 0.3% 67%
381 0.1% 67%
382 1.0% 67%
383 2% 66%
384 1.1% 64%
385 2% 63%
386 3% 61%
387 0.6% 59%
388 1.5% 58%
389 0.3% 57%
390 1.2% 56%
391 3% 55%
392 4% 52%
393 2% 48%
394 0.4% 46%
395 0.6% 45%
396 0.3% 45%
397 4% 44%
398 7% 40%
399 2% 33%
400 2% 31%
401 5% 29%
402 7% 24%
403 0.7% 17%
404 1.4% 17%
405 1.4% 15%
406 1.1% 14%
407 3% 13%
408 0.3% 10%
409 0.9% 9%
410 0.2% 8%
411 0.1% 8%
412 1.4% 8%
413 2% 7%
414 0.4% 5%
415 1.0% 4%
416 0.4% 3%
417 0.1% 3%
418 0% 3%
419 0% 3%
420 0.1% 3%
421 0.5% 3%
422 0.1% 2%
423 1.1% 2%
424 0.7% 1.1%
425 0.1% 0.4%
426 0.1% 0.3%
427 0% 0.2%
428 0% 0.2%
429 0% 0.1%
430 0% 0.1%
431 0% 0.1%
432 0% 0.1%
433 0.1% 0.1%
434 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
325 0% 100%
326 0.1% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.8%
329 0% 99.8%
330 0% 99.8%
331 0% 99.8%
332 0% 99.7%
333 0% 99.7%
334 0% 99.7%
335 0% 99.7%
336 0% 99.7%
337 0% 99.6%
338 0.2% 99.6%
339 0.1% 99.4%
340 0% 99.4%
341 0.1% 99.4%
342 0% 99.3%
343 0% 99.3%
344 0.2% 99.3%
345 0.1% 99.1%
346 0.2% 99.1%
347 0.9% 98.9%
348 0.1% 98%
349 0% 98%
350 0.3% 98%
351 0.2% 98%
352 0.5% 97%
353 0.1% 97%
354 0.3% 97%
355 0.2% 97%
356 0.8% 96%
357 0.1% 96%
358 0.3% 95%
359 0.2% 95%
360 0.4% 95%
361 0.3% 95%
362 0.8% 94%
363 0.3% 93%
364 4% 93%
365 8% 89%
366 0.4% 82%
367 0.3% 81%
368 4% 81%
369 1.2% 77%
370 0.7% 76%
371 1.3% 75%
372 2% 74%
373 0.5% 72%
374 0.2% 72%
375 0.8% 72%
376 1.0% 71%
377 0.6% 70%
378 1.2% 69%
379 4% 68%
380 1.3% 65%
381 1.1% 63%
382 1.1% 62%
383 0.6% 61%
384 0.2% 60%
385 4% 60%
386 2% 56%
387 2% 54%
388 5% 52%
389 2% 48%
390 1.2% 45%
391 0.6% 44%
392 0.4% 44%
393 0.3% 43%
394 3% 43%
395 9% 40%
396 0.8% 31%
397 8% 30%
398 2% 22%
399 5% 21%
400 0.6% 16%
401 2% 15%
402 2% 14%
403 0.3% 12%
404 2% 11%
405 1.1% 10%
406 1.2% 8%
407 0.4% 7%
408 0.9% 7%
409 0.5% 6%
410 0.9% 5%
411 0.2% 5%
412 0.2% 4%
413 1.1% 4%
414 0% 3%
415 0.2% 3%
416 0.1% 3%
417 0.2% 3%
418 0.5% 2%
419 0% 2%
420 2% 2%
421 0.1% 0.4%
422 0.1% 0.3%
423 0% 0.2%
424 0% 0.1%
425 0% 0.1%
426 0% 0.1%
427 0.1% 0.1%
428 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.9%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0.2% 99.8%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0% 99.3%
330 0.8% 99.3%
331 0% 98%
332 0.3% 98%
333 0.1% 98%
334 0.2% 98%
335 0.5% 98%
336 2% 97%
337 0.5% 96%
338 0.4% 95%
339 8% 95%
340 0.9% 87%
341 2% 87%
342 1.0% 85%
343 0.7% 84%
344 0.6% 83%
345 1.3% 83%
346 0.4% 81%
347 0.8% 81%
348 2% 80%
349 0.5% 78%
350 1.0% 78%
351 1.5% 77%
352 0.7% 75%
353 0.3% 74%
354 8% 74%
355 4% 66%
356 4% 62%
357 0.5% 58%
358 12% 58%
359 0.9% 46%
360 5% 45%
361 2% 40%
362 4% 38%
363 2% 34%
364 2% 32%
365 2% 30%
366 3% 28%
367 3% 25%
368 5% 23%
369 1.3% 18%
370 4% 17%
371 2% 13%
372 2% 10%
373 0.4% 9%
374 0.6% 8%
375 0.4% 8%
376 0.3% 7%
377 0.7% 7%
378 0.1% 6%
379 0.5% 6%
380 0.2% 6%
381 2% 6%
382 0.9% 4%
383 1.5% 3%
384 0.1% 1.4%
385 0.3% 1.3%
386 0.1% 1.0%
387 0.2% 0.9%
388 0% 0.7%
389 0.1% 0.6%
390 0.3% 0.6%
391 0% 0.2%
392 0.1% 0.2%
393 0% 0.2%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
309 0.1% 100%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0% 99.8%
312 0% 99.8%
313 0% 99.8%
314 0% 99.7%
315 0.2% 99.7%
316 0.1% 99.5%
317 0% 99.4%
318 0% 99.3%
319 0.1% 99.3%
320 0.8% 99.2%
321 0% 98%
322 4% 98%
323 0.4% 94%
324 0.1% 94%
325 1.2% 94%
326 1.0% 92%
327 4% 91%
328 0.1% 87%
329 0.6% 87%
330 3% 86%
331 0.7% 84%
332 1.0% 83%
333 1.2% 82%
334 1.2% 81%
335 0.3% 79%
336 0.2% 79%
337 0.7% 79%
338 0% 78%
339 0.4% 78%
340 0.3% 78%
341 3% 78%
342 1.0% 75%
343 3% 74%
344 5% 70%
345 1.2% 66%
346 1.3% 64%
347 0.6% 63%
348 2% 63%
349 7% 60%
350 7% 53%
351 8% 46%
352 9% 38%
353 6% 29%
354 4% 23%
355 2% 19%
356 1.0% 17%
357 0.6% 16%
358 0.9% 15%
359 0.6% 14%
360 1.3% 14%
361 0.9% 12%
362 0.2% 11%
363 0.6% 11%
364 0.4% 11%
365 1.2% 10%
366 2% 9%
367 1.2% 8%
368 2% 7%
369 0.2% 4%
370 1.2% 4%
371 0.1% 3%
372 0.6% 3%
373 1.3% 2%
374 0.2% 1.1%
375 0.2% 0.8%
376 0.1% 0.7%
377 0.3% 0.6%
378 0% 0.3%
379 0.1% 0.3%
380 0% 0.2%
381 0% 0.2%
382 0% 0.2%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0.1%
390 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
305 0.1% 100%
306 0% 99.8%
307 0% 99.8%
308 0% 99.8%
309 0% 99.8%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.7%
312 0.2% 99.7%
313 0.1% 99.4%
314 0% 99.4%
315 0.1% 99.3%
316 0.7% 99.2%
317 0.1% 98.6%
318 0.2% 98%
319 4% 98%
320 0.1% 94%
321 0.3% 94%
322 3% 93%
323 0.3% 91%
324 4% 90%
325 0.3% 87%
326 2% 86%
327 0.8% 84%
328 0.3% 83%
329 0.5% 83%
330 0.8% 82%
331 1.5% 82%
332 1.2% 80%
333 0.3% 79%
334 0.6% 79%
335 0.1% 78%
336 0.4% 78%
337 0.6% 78%
338 4% 77%
339 2% 73%
340 4% 71%
341 1.0% 67%
342 1.0% 66%
343 3% 65%
344 0.8% 62%
345 3% 61%
346 8% 58%
347 11% 50%
348 3% 39%
349 13% 35%
350 3% 23%
351 1.4% 19%
352 2% 18%
353 0.4% 16%
354 0.5% 15%
355 1.2% 15%
356 2% 13%
357 0.7% 11%
358 0.2% 11%
359 0% 10%
360 0.2% 10%
361 2% 10%
362 0.1% 8%
363 1.3% 8%
364 0.3% 7%
365 2% 7%
366 0.7% 5%
367 3% 4%
368 0.2% 1.3%
369 0.2% 1.1%
370 0.1% 0.9%
371 0.1% 0.8%
372 0.1% 0.7%
373 0.4% 0.6%
374 0% 0.2%
375 0% 0.2%
376 0% 0.2%
377 0% 0.2%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0.1%
382 0% 0.1%
383 0% 0.1%
384 0% 0.1%
385 0% 0.1%
386 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
247 0% 100%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.9%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0% 99.8%
257 0% 99.8%
258 0% 99.8%
259 0.4% 99.8%
260 0.1% 99.4%
261 0.2% 99.3%
262 0.1% 99.1%
263 0.2% 99.1%
264 0.3% 98.8%
265 3% 98.5%
266 0.7% 96%
267 2% 95%
268 1.0% 93%
269 0.5% 92%
270 1.0% 92%
271 0.9% 91%
272 0.3% 90%
273 0.1% 90%
274 0.7% 90%
275 1.3% 89%
276 1.1% 88%
277 1.2% 86%
278 0.5% 85%
279 0.5% 85%
280 3% 84%
281 1.3% 82%
282 3% 80%
283 13% 77%
284 4% 64%
285 11% 61%
286 10% 49%
287 1.0% 39%
288 0.7% 38%
289 3% 38%
290 1.4% 35%
291 0.6% 33%
292 4% 33%
293 3% 29%
294 3% 26%
295 0.6% 23%
296 0.3% 22%
297 0.1% 22%
298 0.7% 22%
299 0.4% 21%
300 1.1% 21%
301 1.4% 20%
302 0.8% 18%
303 0.5% 18%
304 0.3% 17%
305 2% 17%
306 2% 15%
307 0.3% 13%
308 4% 13%
309 0.9% 9%
310 2% 9%
311 0.2% 6%
312 0.1% 6%
313 4% 6%
314 0.3% 2%
315 0.1% 2%
316 0.7% 1.4%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0% 0.7%
319 0.1% 0.6%
320 0.2% 0.5%
321 0.1% 0.3%
322 0% 0.3%
323 0% 0.2%
324 0% 0.2%
325 0% 0.2%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0.1% 0.2%
328 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
243 0% 100%
244 0% 99.9%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0% 99.9%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0% 99.9%
251 0% 99.8%
252 0% 99.8%
253 0.1% 99.8%
254 0% 99.7%
255 0.3% 99.7%
256 0.1% 99.4%
257 0.2% 99.3%
258 0.2% 99.1%
259 1.4% 98.9%
260 0.5% 98%
261 0.3% 97%
262 1.0% 97%
263 1.2% 96%
264 1.0% 94%
265 2% 93%
266 0.7% 91%
267 1.3% 91%
268 0.2% 89%
269 0.5% 89%
270 1.0% 89%
271 0.1% 88%
272 2% 88%
273 0.4% 86%
274 0.9% 86%
275 0.9% 85%
276 0.8% 84%
277 2% 83%
278 4% 81%
279 5% 77%
280 9% 71%
281 8% 62%
282 8% 54%
283 8% 46%
284 0.5% 38%
285 0.6% 37%
286 2% 37%
287 1.1% 35%
288 4% 34%
289 4% 29%
290 0.2% 26%
291 3% 25%
292 0.2% 22%
293 0.4% 22%
294 0.1% 22%
295 0.7% 22%
296 0.3% 21%
297 0.2% 21%
298 1.2% 20%
299 1.3% 19%
300 1.0% 18%
301 1.4% 17%
302 2% 16%
303 0.6% 14%
304 0.2% 13%
305 5% 13%
306 2% 8%
307 0.5% 7%
308 0.1% 6%
309 0.4% 6%
310 4% 6%
311 0% 2%
312 0.8% 2%
313 0.1% 0.8%
314 0% 0.7%
315 0.1% 0.6%
316 0% 0.5%
317 0.2% 0.5%
318 0% 0.3%
319 0% 0.3%
320 0% 0.2%
321 0% 0.2%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0.1% 0.2%
324 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
232 0% 100%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0% 99.9%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.8%
241 0% 99.8%
242 0.3% 99.7%
243 0.1% 99.4%
244 0% 99.4%
245 0.3% 99.3%
246 0.1% 99.0%
247 0.3% 99.0%
248 0.3% 98.6%
249 2% 98%
250 0.2% 96%
251 2% 96%
252 0.4% 94%
253 0.2% 94%
254 0.2% 94%
255 0.7% 94%
256 0.3% 93%
257 0.7% 92%
258 0.3% 92%
259 1.5% 92%
260 0.7% 90%
261 2% 89%
262 4% 87%
263 1.2% 83%
264 4% 82%
265 3% 77%
266 2% 74%
267 2% 72%
268 2% 70%
269 3% 68%
270 4% 65%
271 1.3% 61%
272 5% 59%
273 1.2% 54%
274 11% 53%
275 0.4% 42%
276 4% 42%
277 4% 37%
278 8% 34%
279 0.3% 26%
280 0.7% 26%
281 2% 25%
282 1.0% 23%
283 1.3% 22%
284 1.2% 21%
285 0.9% 20%
286 0.4% 19%
287 1.4% 19%
288 0.4% 17%
289 1.3% 17%
290 0.4% 16%
291 2% 15%
292 0.8% 13%
293 8% 13%
294 0.5% 5%
295 1.2% 5%
296 0.8% 3%
297 0.6% 3%
298 0.1% 2%
299 0.1% 2%
300 0.3% 2%
301 0% 2%
302 0.8% 2%
303 0.1% 0.7%
304 0.1% 0.7%
305 0.1% 0.6%
306 0.2% 0.4%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0.1% 0.1%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
227 0% 100%
228 0% 99.9%
229 0% 99.9%
230 0% 99.9%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.8%
236 0% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0.3% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.1% 99.4%
241 0.3% 99.3%
242 0.1% 99.0%
243 1.3% 98.9%
244 1.1% 98%
245 0.2% 97%
246 0.9% 96%
247 0.3% 95%
248 0.2% 95%
249 0% 95%
250 0.7% 95%
251 2% 94%
252 0.4% 92%
253 0.3% 92%
254 1.2% 92%
255 0.6% 91%
256 2% 90%
257 0.4% 88%
258 5% 88%
259 0.7% 83%
260 3% 82%
261 2% 79%
262 2% 77%
263 3% 75%
264 2% 72%
265 6% 69%
266 2% 63%
267 2% 62%
268 5% 59%
269 0.7% 54%
270 2% 53%
271 11% 52%
272 0.6% 41%
273 6% 40%
274 5% 34%
275 5% 30%
276 0.5% 25%
277 0.3% 24%
278 0.5% 24%
279 1.5% 24%
280 1.2% 22%
281 0.8% 21%
282 2% 20%
283 1.0% 18%
284 0.7% 17%
285 0.1% 17%
286 2% 17%
287 1.4% 15%
288 0.1% 13%
289 0.8% 13%
290 8% 13%
291 1.0% 5%
292 1.2% 4%
293 0.2% 3%
294 0.2% 2%
295 0.2% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.8% 2%
298 0.1% 0.8%
299 0.1% 0.7%
300 0% 0.6%
301 0.3% 0.6%
302 0.1% 0.3%
303 0.1% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0.1% 0.2%
306 0.1% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
204 0% 100%
205 0.1% 99.9%
206 0% 99.9%
207 0% 99.9%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0.1% 99.9%
210 0.1% 99.8%
211 0.4% 99.7%
212 1.3% 99.3%
213 0% 98%
214 0.5% 98%
215 0.2% 98%
216 0.2% 97%
217 0.1% 97%
218 0% 97%
219 1.2% 97%
220 0.4% 96%
221 0.8% 96%
222 0.2% 95%
223 1.3% 95%
224 0.2% 93%
225 0.3% 93%
226 1.2% 93%
227 1.0% 91%
228 2% 90%
229 0.3% 88%
230 3% 88%
231 0.9% 85%
232 1.1% 85%
233 6% 83%
234 0.5% 78%
235 8% 77%
236 2% 70%
237 7% 68%
238 3% 60%
239 0.4% 57%
240 0.5% 57%
241 0.5% 56%
242 2% 56%
243 2% 54%
244 5% 52%
245 3% 48%
246 2% 45%
247 3% 43%
248 0.2% 40%
249 1.0% 39%
250 0.7% 38%
251 1.4% 38%
252 1.0% 36%
253 4% 35%
254 0.4% 31%
255 0.6% 31%
256 1.1% 30%
257 0.8% 29%
258 0.3% 28%
259 0.5% 28%
260 2% 28%
261 1.0% 26%
262 0.7% 24%
263 2% 24%
264 3% 22%
265 0.3% 19%
266 0.4% 19%
267 8% 18%
268 4% 11%
269 0.2% 7%
270 0.8% 7%
271 0.3% 6%
272 0.5% 5%
273 0.1% 5%
274 0.4% 5%
275 0.1% 4%
276 0.8% 4%
277 0.3% 4%
278 0.2% 3%
279 0.2% 3%
280 0.4% 3%
281 0.3% 3%
282 0.3% 2%
283 0% 2%
284 0.1% 2%
285 0.9% 2%
286 0.2% 1.1%
287 0% 0.9%
288 0.2% 0.9%
289 0% 0.7%
290 0% 0.7%
291 0% 0.7%
292 0% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.6%
294 0.2% 0.6%
295 0% 0.4%
296 0% 0.4%
297 0% 0.3%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0% 0.3%
301 0% 0.3%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0% 0.2%
304 0% 0.2%
305 0% 0.2%
306 0.1% 0.1%
307 0% 0.1%
308 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
199 0.1% 100%
200 0% 99.9%
201 0% 99.9%
202 0% 99.9%
203 0% 99.9%
204 0% 99.9%
205 0% 99.8%
206 0.1% 99.8%
207 0.1% 99.7%
208 1.0% 99.6%
209 0.8% 98.6%
210 0.1% 98%
211 0.5% 98%
212 0% 97%
213 0% 97%
214 0.1% 97%
215 0.2% 97%
216 1.1% 97%
217 0.2% 96%
218 1.1% 96%
219 1.4% 95%
220 1.3% 93%
221 0.1% 92%
222 0.2% 92%
223 1.0% 92%
224 0.4% 91%
225 4% 90%
226 0.5% 86%
227 2% 86%
228 1.3% 84%
229 0.3% 83%
230 8% 82%
231 4% 75%
232 3% 71%
233 0.4% 67%
234 7% 67%
235 4% 60%
236 0.3% 56%
237 0.7% 55%
238 0.8% 55%
239 2% 54%
240 4% 52%
241 4% 48%
242 0.5% 44%
243 0.6% 44%
244 2% 43%
245 0.7% 42%
246 2% 41%
247 2% 38%
248 0.8% 36%
249 2% 36%
250 0.2% 33%
251 0.1% 33%
252 0.3% 33%
253 2% 32%
254 0.6% 30%
255 3% 29%
256 1.1% 26%
257 1.2% 25%
258 1.2% 24%
259 0.2% 23%
260 2% 23%
261 2% 21%
262 1.2% 19%
263 0.5% 17%
264 6% 17%
265 5% 11%
266 0.3% 6%
267 0.2% 6%
268 0.3% 5%
269 0.8% 5%
270 0.2% 4%
271 0.1% 4%
272 0.3% 4%
273 0.2% 4%
274 0.2% 3%
275 0.3% 3%
276 0.1% 3%
277 0.1% 3%
278 0.4% 3%
279 0.2% 2%
280 0.1% 2%
281 0.9% 2%
282 0% 1.0%
283 0% 1.0%
284 0% 0.9%
285 0.2% 0.9%
286 0.1% 0.7%
287 0% 0.7%
288 0.1% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.5%
291 0% 0.4%
292 0% 0.4%
293 0% 0.4%
294 0% 0.3%
295 0% 0.3%
296 0% 0.3%
297 0% 0.3%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.3%
300 0.1% 0.3%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.2%
303 0.1% 0.1%
304 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
192 0% 100%
193 0% 99.9%
194 0% 99.9%
195 0.3% 99.9%
196 0.1% 99.6%
197 0% 99.5%
198 0.2% 99.5%
199 0.1% 99.3%
200 0% 99.2%
201 0.1% 99.2%
202 0.4% 99.1%
203 0.1% 98.6%
204 1.1% 98.5%
205 1.0% 97%
206 0.9% 96%
207 0.1% 95%
208 0.7% 95%
209 0.3% 95%
210 1.2% 94%
211 0.1% 93%
212 0.7% 93%
213 0.1% 92%
214 0.5% 92%
215 0.9% 92%
216 2% 91%
217 0.6% 89%
218 1.5% 88%
219 2% 87%
220 4% 85%
221 5% 81%
222 8% 76%
223 6% 68%
224 2% 62%
225 0.3% 60%
226 0.7% 60%
227 2% 59%
228 6% 57%
229 3% 51%
230 4% 48%
231 0.2% 44%
232 1.1% 44%
233 0.4% 42%
234 0.8% 42%
235 3% 41%
236 2% 38%
237 2% 36%
238 3% 35%
239 1.2% 31%
240 1.4% 30%
241 0.6% 29%
242 2% 28%
243 2% 26%
244 0.6% 24%
245 0% 24%
246 0.1% 24%
247 1.5% 23%
248 7% 22%
249 1.3% 15%
250 0.1% 14%
251 3% 14%
252 5% 11%
253 0.4% 6%
254 0.2% 6%
255 0.1% 5%
256 0.3% 5%
257 0.3% 5%
258 0.2% 5%
259 0.3% 5%
260 0.3% 4%
261 0.7% 4%
262 0% 3%
263 0.4% 3%
264 0.1% 3%
265 1.0% 3%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0.1% 1.3%
269 0.3% 1.1%
270 0% 0.8%
271 0.2% 0.8%
272 0% 0.6%
273 0% 0.6%
274 0% 0.5%
275 0% 0.5%
276 0% 0.5%
277 0% 0.5%
278 0% 0.4%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0% 0.3%
283 0% 0.3%
284 0.1% 0.3%
285 0% 0.2%
286 0% 0.2%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0.1% 0.1%
289 0% 0.1%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
188 0% 100%
189 0% 99.9%
190 0% 99.9%
191 0.3% 99.9%
192 0.1% 99.6%
193 0% 99.5%
194 0% 99.4%
195 0.2% 99.4%
196 0.1% 99.2%
197 0.1% 99.1%
198 0.3% 99.0%
199 0.9% 98.7%
200 0.1% 98%
201 0.3% 98%
202 0.2% 97%
203 0.9% 97%
204 2% 96%
205 2% 95%
206 0.2% 93%
207 0.7% 93%
208 0% 92%
209 0% 92%
210 1.2% 92%
211 1.0% 91%
212 0.3% 90%
213 2% 90%
214 3% 88%
215 0.8% 85%
216 3% 85%
217 3% 82%
218 10% 79%
219 4% 69%
220 2% 64%
221 2% 62%
222 0.8% 60%
223 0.9% 59%
224 2% 58%
225 8% 56%
226 2% 49%
227 4% 47%
228 0.3% 43%
229 0.6% 43%
230 0.9% 42%
231 2% 41%
232 0.8% 39%
233 0.6% 38%
234 2% 38%
235 3% 36%
236 4% 33%
237 2% 29%
238 0.7% 27%
239 2% 26%
240 1.0% 25%
241 0.2% 24%
242 1.3% 23%
243 0.2% 22%
244 1.2% 22%
245 6% 21%
246 0.2% 14%
247 2% 14%
248 3% 12%
249 4% 9%
250 0.2% 6%
251 0% 5%
252 0.4% 5%
253 0.2% 5%
254 1.0% 5%
255 0.1% 4%
256 0.2% 4%
257 0.2% 3%
258 0.2% 3%
259 0.2% 3%
260 0% 3%
261 1.1% 3%
262 0.2% 2%
263 0% 2%
264 0.1% 1.5%
265 0.3% 1.4%
266 0.4% 1.1%
267 0.2% 0.8%
268 0.1% 0.6%
269 0% 0.5%
270 0% 0.5%
271 0% 0.5%
272 0% 0.5%
273 0% 0.5%
274 0.1% 0.4%
275 0.1% 0.4%
276 0% 0.3%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0% 0.3%
280 0% 0.3%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0% 0.2%
283 0% 0.2%
284 0% 0.2%
285 0.1% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations