Opinion Poll by ICM for The Guardian, 6–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 47.1% 45.0–48.7% 44.5–49.2% 44.0–49.6% 43.1–50.5%
Labour Party 30.4% 34.3% 32.4–35.9% 31.9–36.4% 31.5–36.8% 30.7–37.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 6.6% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.3–8.1% 4.9–8.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.6% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.2–6.3%
Green Party 3.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.5–3.2% 1.3–3.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 355 343–371 339–376 336–380 326–386
Labour Party 232 218 201–231 197–235 193–239 187–248
Liberal Democrats 8 2 1–4 0–5 0–6 0–8
Scottish National Party 56 56 52–56 50–57 47–58 38–59
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
321 0.1% 100%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.6%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0.2% 99.3%
330 0.1% 99.1%
331 0.1% 99.1%
332 0.4% 99.0%
333 0.5% 98.6%
334 0.2% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.7% 97%
338 1.2% 97%
339 0.5% 95%
340 0.2% 95%
341 0.9% 95%
342 1.1% 94%
343 3% 93%
344 0.7% 90%
345 1.3% 89%
346 0.5% 88%
347 1.2% 87%
348 3% 86%
349 4% 83%
350 5% 79%
351 5% 74%
352 7% 69%
353 5% 62%
354 3% 57%
355 6% 55%
356 4% 49%
357 4% 44%
358 1.1% 40%
359 3% 39%
360 2% 36%
361 3% 34%
362 5% 31%
363 0.4% 27%
364 1.3% 26%
365 0.7% 25%
366 3% 24%
367 2% 21%
368 2% 19%
369 2% 17%
370 2% 15%
371 3% 13%
372 2% 10%
373 0.3% 8%
374 0.7% 7%
375 2% 7%
376 0.5% 5%
377 0.6% 5%
378 0.6% 4%
379 0.3% 3%
380 0.6% 3%
381 0.7% 2%
382 0.3% 2%
383 0.5% 2%
384 0.2% 1.0%
385 0.2% 0.9%
386 0.3% 0.7%
387 0.1% 0.4%
388 0.1% 0.3%
389 0% 0.2%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.3% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.5%
189 0.5% 99.2%
190 0.2% 98.8%
191 0.3% 98.5%
192 0.6% 98%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.5% 97%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.2% 96%
197 1.0% 96%
198 0.6% 95%
199 2% 94%
200 0.7% 92%
201 2% 91%
202 0.9% 89%
203 2% 89%
204 4% 87%
205 2% 83%
206 3% 81%
207 3% 79%
208 1.1% 76%
209 2% 75%
210 0.7% 73%
211 1.0% 72%
212 2% 71%
213 2% 70%
214 3% 68%
215 6% 65%
216 4% 59%
217 4% 55%
218 5% 51%
219 4% 46%
220 3% 42%
221 5% 39%
222 6% 35%
223 7% 28%
224 3% 21%
225 1.4% 18%
226 3% 17%
227 0.8% 14%
228 0.8% 14%
229 1.1% 13%
230 2% 12%
231 2% 10%
232 2% 9%
233 0.9% 7%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.6% 5%
236 1.0% 5%
237 0.3% 4%
238 0.9% 4%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.5% 2%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.1% 1.2%
244 0.1% 1.1%
245 0.2% 1.0%
246 0.1% 0.8%
247 0.1% 0.7%
248 0.1% 0.6%
249 0.1% 0.4%
250 0.1% 0.3%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0.1% 0.2%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 7% 100%
1 37% 93%
2 25% 56%
3 15% 30%
4 8% 16%
5 4% 8%
6 3% 4%
7 0.7% 1.4%
8 0.3% 0.7%
9 0.2% 0.4%
10 0.1% 0.2%
11 0.1% 0.1%
12 0% 0.1%
13 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
27 0% 100%
28 0% 99.9%
29 0% 99.9%
30 0% 99.9%
31 0.1% 99.9%
32 0% 99.8%
33 0% 99.8%
34 0% 99.8%
35 0.1% 99.8%
36 0% 99.7%
37 0.1% 99.7%
38 0.1% 99.6%
39 0% 99.5%
40 0.1% 99.5%
41 0% 99.4%
42 0% 99.3%
43 0% 99.3%
44 0.1% 99.3%
45 0.4% 99.1%
46 1.2% 98.7%
47 0.7% 98%
48 0.7% 97%
49 1.1% 96%
50 2% 95%
51 3% 93%
52 2% 90%
53 4% 88%
54 8% 84%
55 12% 76%
56 54% 64%
57 6% 10%
58 2% 4%
59 2% 2%
60 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 83% 100%
1 17% 17%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 59% 100%
1 1.3% 41%
2 6% 40%
3 19% 34%
4 5% 14%
5 10% 10%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0.1% 0.1%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 412 399–428 394–433 391–437 381–442
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 411 399–427 393–431 389–435 380–441
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 357 345–374 342–378 338–383 328–389
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 357 345–373 341–377 337–381 328–387
Conservative Party 331 355 343–371 339–376 336–380 326–386
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 276 261–289 256–293 251–296 246–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 275 259–286 254–291 250–295 245–304
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 274 258–286 253–290 249–294 243–304
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 273 256–284 252–289 248–292 242–302
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 221 205–233 200–238 197–243 191–252
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 220 204–233 199–238 195–241 190–251
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 219 203–232 199–236 194–240 189–249
Labour Party 232 218 201–231 197–235 193–239 187–248

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
372 0% 100%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0.1% 99.9%
376 0% 99.9%
377 0% 99.9%
378 0.1% 99.8%
379 0.1% 99.8%
380 0.1% 99.7%
381 0.2% 99.6%
382 0% 99.4%
383 0.1% 99.4%
384 0.1% 99.3%
385 0.2% 99.1%
386 0.1% 99.0%
387 0.2% 98.8%
388 0.4% 98.6%
389 0.2% 98%
390 0.4% 98%
391 0.9% 98%
392 0.5% 97%
393 0.8% 96%
394 0.7% 96%
395 0.4% 95%
396 0.6% 94%
397 1.1% 94%
398 0.8% 93%
399 3% 92%
400 0.8% 89%
401 2% 88%
402 0.5% 87%
403 2% 86%
404 0.8% 84%
405 4% 83%
406 3% 80%
407 5% 77%
408 8% 72%
409 2% 64%
410 5% 62%
411 6% 57%
412 3% 52%
413 6% 49%
414 3% 43%
415 3% 40%
416 4% 37%
417 2% 32%
418 1.3% 30%
419 1.5% 29%
420 1.0% 27%
421 2% 26%
422 2% 25%
423 3% 23%
424 2% 20%
425 3% 19%
426 1.4% 15%
427 3% 14%
428 1.2% 11%
429 1.0% 9%
430 2% 8%
431 1.3% 7%
432 0.6% 6%
433 0.6% 5%
434 0.8% 4%
435 0.3% 4%
436 0.8% 3%
437 0.8% 3%
438 0.1% 2%
439 0.3% 2%
440 0.4% 1.4%
441 0.3% 1.0%
442 0.3% 0.7%
443 0.1% 0.4%
444 0% 0.2%
445 0.1% 0.2%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0.1%
448 0% 0.1%
449 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
371 0% 100%
372 0% 99.9%
373 0% 99.9%
374 0% 99.9%
375 0.1% 99.9%
376 0% 99.8%
377 0% 99.8%
378 0.1% 99.8%
379 0.1% 99.7%
380 0.1% 99.6%
381 0.2% 99.5%
382 0.1% 99.3%
383 0.1% 99.2%
384 0.2% 99.1%
385 0.2% 98.9%
386 0.1% 98.7%
387 0.2% 98.6%
388 0.6% 98%
389 0.5% 98%
390 0.4% 97%
391 1.0% 97%
392 0.3% 96%
393 0.8% 96%
394 2% 95%
395 0.4% 93%
396 0.6% 93%
397 0.6% 92%
398 0.7% 92%
399 4% 91%
400 0.8% 87%
401 1.2% 86%
402 0.8% 85%
403 3% 84%
404 3% 82%
405 4% 79%
406 7% 75%
407 5% 69%
408 7% 63%
409 1.1% 57%
410 5% 56%
411 6% 51%
412 3% 45%
413 4% 42%
414 1.2% 38%
415 4% 37%
416 4% 34%
417 2% 29%
418 2% 27%
419 0.3% 25%
420 1.4% 25%
421 2% 24%
422 3% 22%
423 2% 19%
424 2% 17%
425 3% 16%
426 1.4% 13%
427 3% 12%
428 1.0% 8%
429 0.8% 7%
430 0.4% 6%
431 1.4% 6%
432 0.5% 4%
433 0.6% 4%
434 0.5% 3%
435 0.3% 3%
436 0.5% 2%
437 0.6% 2%
438 0.2% 1.4%
439 0.3% 1.1%
440 0.3% 0.9%
441 0.2% 0.6%
442 0.2% 0.4%
443 0.1% 0.2%
444 0% 0.1%
445 0% 0.1%
446 0% 0.1%
447 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
323 0.1% 100%
324 0% 99.9%
325 0.1% 99.9%
326 0.1% 99.8%
327 0.1% 99.7%
328 0.1% 99.6%
329 0.1% 99.5%
330 0.1% 99.4%
331 0.2% 99.4%
332 0.1% 99.1%
333 0.2% 99.1%
334 0.4% 98.9%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.3% 98%
337 0.3% 98%
338 0.5% 98%
339 0.5% 97%
340 0.9% 97%
341 0.6% 96%
342 0.5% 95%
343 1.0% 95%
344 1.1% 94%
345 3% 92%
346 0.9% 90%
347 0.9% 89%
348 0.8% 88%
349 2% 87%
350 2% 85%
351 4% 83%
352 5% 79%
353 8% 74%
354 4% 66%
355 3% 62%
356 4% 59%
357 5% 55%
358 5% 50%
359 3% 45%
360 3% 42%
361 3% 39%
362 3% 36%
363 4% 34%
364 0.8% 30%
365 2% 29%
366 2% 27%
367 1.3% 25%
368 2% 24%
369 2% 22%
370 3% 19%
371 2% 17%
372 3% 15%
373 2% 12%
374 2% 11%
375 0.6% 9%
376 1.4% 8%
377 0.7% 7%
378 1.1% 6%
379 0.7% 5%
380 0.2% 4%
381 0.7% 4%
382 0.5% 3%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.6% 2%
385 0.5% 2%
386 0.3% 1.3%
387 0.3% 1.0%
388 0.1% 0.6%
389 0.1% 0.5%
390 0.1% 0.4%
391 0.1% 0.4%
392 0.1% 0.2%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0.1%
395 0% 0.1%
396 0% 0.1%
397 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
322 0% 100%
323 0% 99.9%
324 0.1% 99.9%
325 0.1% 99.8%
326 0.1% 99.7%
327 0.1% 99.6%
328 0.1% 99.6%
329 0.2% 99.5%
330 0.1% 99.3%
331 0% 99.2%
332 0.4% 99.1%
333 0.2% 98.8%
334 0.2% 98.5%
335 0.2% 98%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.4% 98%
338 0.8% 97%
339 0.6% 97%
340 0.4% 96%
341 0.8% 95%
342 0.9% 95%
343 1.4% 94%
344 1.0% 92%
345 1.4% 91%
346 1.4% 90%
347 0.4% 89%
348 2% 88%
349 3% 86%
350 2% 83%
351 4% 81%
352 9% 77%
353 4% 68%
354 3% 64%
355 5% 61%
356 4% 56%
357 5% 52%
358 4% 47%
359 4% 43%
360 3% 39%
361 3% 37%
362 4% 34%
363 0.6% 30%
364 1.4% 29%
365 2% 28%
366 2% 26%
367 2% 24%
368 2% 22%
369 3% 20%
370 2% 17%
371 3% 15%
372 2% 12%
373 0.6% 10%
374 2% 10%
375 2% 8%
376 0.6% 6%
377 0.7% 6%
378 0.7% 5%
379 0.2% 4%
380 0.8% 4%
381 0.8% 3%
382 0.4% 2%
383 0.4% 2%
384 0.2% 2%
385 0.3% 1.4%
386 0.5% 1.1%
387 0.2% 0.6%
388 0.1% 0.4%
389 0.1% 0.3%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0.1% 0.2%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0.1%
394 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
321 0.1% 100%
322 0% 99.9%
323 0.1% 99.8%
324 0.1% 99.8%
325 0.1% 99.7%
326 0.1% 99.6%
327 0.1% 99.5%
328 0.1% 99.4%
329 0.2% 99.3%
330 0.1% 99.1%
331 0.1% 99.1%
332 0.4% 99.0%
333 0.5% 98.6%
334 0.2% 98%
335 0.3% 98%
336 0.4% 98%
337 0.7% 97%
338 1.2% 97%
339 0.5% 95%
340 0.2% 95%
341 0.9% 95%
342 1.1% 94%
343 3% 93%
344 0.7% 90%
345 1.3% 89%
346 0.5% 88%
347 1.2% 87%
348 3% 86%
349 4% 83%
350 5% 79%
351 5% 74%
352 7% 69%
353 5% 62%
354 3% 57%
355 6% 55%
356 4% 49%
357 4% 44%
358 1.1% 40%
359 3% 39%
360 2% 36%
361 3% 34%
362 5% 31%
363 0.4% 27%
364 1.3% 26%
365 0.7% 25%
366 3% 24%
367 2% 21%
368 2% 19%
369 2% 17%
370 2% 15%
371 3% 13%
372 2% 10%
373 0.3% 8%
374 0.7% 7%
375 2% 7%
376 0.5% 5%
377 0.6% 5%
378 0.6% 4%
379 0.3% 3%
380 0.6% 3%
381 0.7% 2%
382 0.3% 2%
383 0.5% 2%
384 0.2% 1.0%
385 0.2% 0.9%
386 0.3% 0.7%
387 0.1% 0.4%
388 0.1% 0.3%
389 0% 0.2%
390 0.1% 0.2%
391 0% 0.1%
392 0% 0.1%
393 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
240 0% 100%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.9%
243 0% 99.8%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.3% 99.6%
247 0.2% 99.2%
248 0.1% 99.1%
249 0.6% 99.0%
250 0.3% 98%
251 0.7% 98%
252 0.5% 97%
253 0.3% 97%
254 0.5% 97%
255 0.6% 96%
256 1.3% 95%
257 1.0% 94%
258 0.7% 93%
259 0.3% 92%
260 2% 92%
261 4% 90%
262 1.2% 86%
263 2% 85%
264 2% 83%
265 3% 81%
266 2% 77%
267 0.6% 76%
268 1.2% 75%
269 0.8% 74%
270 5% 73%
271 3% 68%
272 2% 65%
273 2% 63%
274 1.3% 61%
275 5% 60%
276 6% 55%
277 4% 49%
278 3% 45%
279 5% 43%
280 8% 37%
281 4% 29%
282 5% 25%
283 3% 20%
284 3% 17%
285 1.2% 14%
286 1.0% 13%
287 0.8% 12%
288 0.8% 11%
289 3% 10%
290 1.4% 7%
291 0.6% 6%
292 0.3% 5%
293 0.6% 5%
294 1.1% 5%
295 0.7% 3%
296 0.4% 3%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.2% 2%
299 0.5% 2%
300 0.4% 1.4%
301 0.1% 1.0%
302 0.1% 0.9%
303 0.2% 0.8%
304 0.1% 0.7%
305 0.1% 0.6%
306 0.1% 0.5%
307 0.1% 0.4%
308 0.1% 0.3%
309 0.1% 0.2%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0.1% 0.1%
312 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0.1% 99.9%
242 0.1% 99.8%
243 0.1% 99.8%
244 0.2% 99.7%
245 0.2% 99.5%
246 0.6% 99.4%
247 0.2% 98.8%
248 0.3% 98.6%
249 0.4% 98%
250 0.5% 98%
251 0.8% 97%
252 0.7% 97%
253 0.2% 96%
254 0.7% 96%
255 0.7% 95%
256 1.2% 94%
257 1.0% 93%
258 2% 92%
259 0.6% 90%
260 2% 90%
261 4% 87%
262 1.0% 84%
263 3% 83%
264 2% 79%
265 3% 77%
266 1.4% 75%
267 1.0% 73%
268 2% 72%
269 0.5% 71%
270 4% 70%
271 3% 66%
272 3% 63%
273 3% 59%
274 4% 56%
275 5% 52%
276 6% 48%
277 3% 42%
278 3% 39%
279 4% 36%
280 10% 31%
281 3% 22%
282 2% 19%
283 3% 17%
284 2% 14%
285 0.4% 12%
286 1.5% 11%
287 2% 10%
288 0.9% 8%
289 1.3% 7%
290 0.9% 6%
291 0.8% 5%
292 0.4% 5%
293 0.7% 4%
294 0.8% 3%
295 0.4% 3%
296 0.4% 2%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.1% 2%
299 0.2% 1.5%
300 0.4% 1.2%
301 0% 0.9%
302 0.1% 0.8%
303 0.1% 0.7%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0.1% 0.4%
306 0.1% 0.4%
307 0.1% 0.3%
308 0.1% 0.2%
309 0% 0.1%
310 0% 0.1%
311 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0% 99.9%
240 0.1% 99.9%
241 0.1% 99.8%
242 0.1% 99.6%
243 0.1% 99.6%
244 0.1% 99.4%
245 0.4% 99.3%
246 0.3% 99.0%
247 0.5% 98.7%
248 0.5% 98%
249 0.5% 98%
250 0.4% 97%
251 0.7% 97%
252 0.2% 96%
253 1.1% 96%
254 0.7% 95%
255 1.0% 94%
256 1.1% 93%
257 1.2% 92%
258 2% 91%
259 2% 89%
260 3% 88%
261 2% 85%
262 3% 83%
263 3% 80%
264 1.0% 77%
265 1.5% 76%
266 2% 75%
267 3% 73%
268 0.4% 70%
269 4% 70%
270 4% 66%
271 2% 63%
272 3% 61%
273 3% 57%
274 6% 54%
275 4% 48%
276 4% 45%
277 3% 41%
278 5% 38%
279 7% 32%
280 5% 25%
281 4% 20%
282 2% 17%
283 2% 15%
284 1.3% 13%
285 0.5% 11%
286 1.0% 11%
287 2% 10%
288 1.4% 8%
289 0.7% 6%
290 0.5% 5%
291 0.6% 5%
292 0.9% 4%
293 0.4% 3%
294 0.6% 3%
295 0.3% 2%
296 0.3% 2%
297 0.3% 2%
298 0.4% 2%
299 0.2% 1.1%
300 0.1% 0.9%
301 0.2% 0.9%
302 0.1% 0.6%
303 0.1% 0.6%
304 0.1% 0.5%
305 0.2% 0.4%
306 0% 0.3%
307 0.1% 0.2%
308 0% 0.1%
309 0.1% 0.1%
310 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
236 0% 100%
237 0% 99.9%
238 0% 99.9%
239 0.1% 99.8%
240 0.1% 99.7%
241 0.1% 99.7%
242 0.1% 99.5%
243 0.3% 99.4%
244 0.3% 99.2%
245 0.5% 98.8%
246 0.4% 98%
247 0.4% 98%
248 0.7% 98%
249 0.5% 97%
250 0.4% 96%
251 0.8% 96%
252 0.4% 95%
253 1.3% 95%
254 0.8% 94%
255 2% 93%
256 0.7% 91%
257 2% 90%
258 0.8% 88%
259 2% 87%
260 4% 85%
261 2% 81%
262 2% 80%
263 3% 77%
264 1.2% 74%
265 2% 73%
266 1.0% 71%
267 2% 70%
268 0.9% 69%
269 4% 68%
270 5% 63%
271 3% 58%
272 4% 56%
273 3% 52%
274 7% 49%
275 3% 42%
276 5% 38%
277 3% 34%
278 6% 31%
279 6% 24%
280 2% 18%
281 3% 16%
282 0.8% 14%
283 2% 13%
284 1.2% 11%
285 0.8% 10%
286 1.4% 9%
287 2% 8%
288 0.4% 6%
289 0.6% 5%
290 0.6% 5%
291 0.8% 4%
292 0.8% 3%
293 0.2% 2%
294 0.3% 2%
295 0.4% 2%
296 0.2% 2%
297 0.2% 1.4%
298 0.3% 1.2%
299 0.1% 0.9%
300 0.1% 0.8%
301 0.2% 0.7%
302 0.1% 0.5%
303 0.1% 0.4%
304 0% 0.4%
305 0.1% 0.3%
306 0% 0.2%
307 0.1% 0.1%
308 0.1% 0.1%
309 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
186 0% 100%
187 0% 99.9%
188 0% 99.9%
189 0.1% 99.9%
190 0.3% 99.8%
191 0.1% 99.5%
192 0.3% 99.4%
193 0.3% 99.1%
194 0.3% 98.8%
195 0.6% 98.5%
196 0.4% 98%
197 0.4% 98%
198 0.5% 97%
199 0.6% 97%
200 1.3% 96%
201 0.7% 95%
202 0.4% 94%
203 0.8% 94%
204 1.1% 93%
205 4% 92%
206 0.9% 88%
207 3% 87%
208 2% 84%
209 2% 82%
210 3% 80%
211 1.2% 77%
212 0.9% 76%
213 0.4% 75%
214 2% 75%
215 2% 72%
216 5% 70%
217 3% 66%
218 1.2% 63%
219 4% 62%
220 5% 58%
221 5% 53%
222 4% 48%
223 1.4% 44%
224 8% 43%
225 4% 35%
226 7% 31%
227 3% 24%
228 3% 21%
229 3% 18%
230 0.6% 15%
231 1.1% 15%
232 0.9% 14%
233 4% 13%
234 0.9% 9%
235 0.4% 8%
236 0.6% 8%
237 0.5% 7%
238 2% 7%
239 0.8% 5%
240 0.3% 4%
241 0.9% 4%
242 0.5% 3%
243 0.4% 3%
244 0.6% 2%
245 0.2% 2%
246 0.1% 1.4%
247 0.2% 1.3%
248 0.2% 1.1%
249 0.1% 0.9%
250 0.1% 0.8%
251 0.2% 0.7%
252 0.1% 0.5%
253 0.1% 0.4%
254 0.1% 0.3%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.2%
257 0.1% 0.2%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0.1%
262 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
184 0% 100%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0% 99.9%
187 0.1% 99.9%
188 0% 99.8%
189 0.1% 99.8%
190 0.4% 99.6%
191 0.2% 99.2%
192 0.4% 99.0%
193 0.3% 98.6%
194 0.2% 98%
195 0.7% 98%
196 0.7% 97%
197 0.4% 97%
198 0.8% 96%
199 0.5% 95%
200 1.2% 95%
201 0.7% 94%
202 1.5% 93%
203 1.0% 92%
204 1.4% 91%
205 4% 89%
206 0.5% 85%
207 3% 84%
208 2% 81%
209 2% 79%
210 2% 76%
211 1.1% 75%
212 1.0% 74%
213 1.4% 73%
214 1.3% 71%
215 3% 70%
216 5% 67%
217 3% 62%
218 3% 59%
219 6% 56%
220 5% 51%
221 4% 46%
222 4% 42%
223 2% 38%
224 9% 36%
225 4% 27%
226 3% 23%
227 3% 20%
228 0.7% 17%
229 2% 16%
230 0.7% 14%
231 2% 13%
232 0.6% 11%
233 3% 11%
234 0.6% 8%
235 1.1% 7%
236 0.6% 6%
237 0.4% 6%
238 0.9% 5%
239 0.7% 4%
240 0.4% 4%
241 0.9% 3%
242 0.4% 2%
243 0.1% 2%
244 0.4% 2%
245 0.2% 1.3%
246 0.1% 1.2%
247 0.2% 1.0%
248 0.1% 0.9%
249 0.1% 0.7%
250 0.1% 0.6%
251 0.2% 0.6%
252 0.1% 0.4%
253 0.1% 0.3%
254 0.1% 0.2%
255 0% 0.2%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0.1% 0.1%
258 0% 0.1%
259 0% 0.1%
260 0% 0.1%
261 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
182 0% 100%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.9%
187 0.2% 99.8%
188 0.1% 99.7%
189 0.3% 99.6%
190 0.2% 99.2%
191 0.2% 99.0%
192 0.6% 98.8%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.5% 98%
195 0.6% 97%
196 0.1% 97%
197 0.8% 97%
198 0.5% 96%
199 1.3% 95%
200 0.9% 94%
201 1.1% 93%
202 1.2% 92%
203 2% 91%
204 3% 89%
205 1.5% 86%
206 3% 85%
207 3% 82%
208 1.2% 79%
209 2% 78%
210 1.3% 76%
211 1.5% 75%
212 1.5% 73%
213 1.1% 72%
214 3% 71%
215 5% 67%
216 3% 63%
217 2% 59%
218 5% 57%
219 4% 52%
220 4% 49%
221 3% 45%
222 4% 42%
223 6% 38%
224 8% 32%
225 4% 24%
226 4% 20%
227 0.8% 16%
228 1.0% 15%
229 1.0% 14%
230 1.1% 13%
231 2% 12%
232 2% 11%
233 0.9% 8%
234 0.4% 7%
235 1.3% 7%
236 1.0% 6%
237 0.4% 5%
238 1.1% 4%
239 0.2% 3%
240 0.4% 3%
241 0.4% 2%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.4% 2%
244 0.2% 1.3%
245 0.1% 1.2%
246 0.2% 1.0%
247 0.1% 0.8%
248 0.1% 0.7%
249 0.2% 0.6%
250 0.1% 0.4%
251 0.1% 0.4%
252 0.1% 0.3%
253 0% 0.2%
254 0% 0.2%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0.1%
258 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
180 0% 100%
181 0% 99.9%
182 0% 99.9%
183 0% 99.9%
184 0% 99.9%
185 0.1% 99.9%
186 0.1% 99.8%
187 0.3% 99.7%
188 0.2% 99.5%
189 0.5% 99.2%
190 0.2% 98.8%
191 0.3% 98.5%
192 0.6% 98%
193 0.5% 98%
194 0.5% 97%
195 0.7% 97%
196 0.2% 96%
197 1.0% 96%
198 0.6% 95%
199 2% 94%
200 0.7% 92%
201 2% 91%
202 0.9% 89%
203 2% 89%
204 4% 87%
205 2% 83%
206 3% 81%
207 3% 79%
208 1.1% 76%
209 2% 75%
210 0.7% 73%
211 1.0% 72%
212 2% 71%
213 2% 70%
214 3% 68%
215 6% 65%
216 4% 59%
217 4% 55%
218 5% 51%
219 4% 46%
220 3% 42%
221 5% 39%
222 6% 35%
223 7% 28%
224 3% 21%
225 1.4% 18%
226 3% 17%
227 0.8% 14%
228 0.8% 14%
229 1.1% 13%
230 2% 12%
231 2% 10%
232 2% 9%
233 0.9% 7%
234 0.7% 6%
235 0.6% 5%
236 1.0% 5%
237 0.3% 4%
238 0.9% 4%
239 0.4% 3%
240 0.5% 2%
241 0.2% 2%
242 0.3% 2%
243 0.1% 1.2%
244 0.1% 1.1%
245 0.2% 1.0%
246 0.1% 0.8%
247 0.1% 0.7%
248 0.1% 0.6%
249 0.1% 0.4%
250 0.1% 0.3%
251 0% 0.3%
252 0.1% 0.2%
253 0% 0.1%
254 0% 0.1%
255 0% 0.1%
256 0% 0.1%
257 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations