Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 1–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 43.9% 41.6–44.4% 41.2–44.7% 40.9–45.1% 40.3–45.8%
Labour Party 30.4% 38.8% 36.7–39.3% 36.3–39.7% 36.0–40.1% 35.3–40.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.1% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.1% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.1% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.4% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 323 316–336 314–339 312–342 306–348
Labour Party 232 254 241–269 237–275 233–279 227–289
Liberal Democrats 8 3 2–6 2–8 1–9 0–12
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 50 32–54 26–55 20–55 12–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
299 0% 100%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0.2% 99.8%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.4%
308 0.3% 99.4%
309 0.2% 99.1%
310 0.5% 98.9%
311 0.7% 98%
312 0.5% 98%
313 0.8% 97%
314 2% 96%
315 4% 94%
316 5% 91%
317 2% 86%
318 4% 84%
319 2% 80%
320 7% 78%
321 8% 71%
322 6% 63%
323 9% 57%
324 7% 48%
325 5% 40%
326 3% 36%
327 4% 33%
328 4% 29%
329 2% 25%
330 2% 23%
331 3% 21%
332 2% 18%
333 2% 16%
334 2% 13%
335 1.1% 11%
336 1.2% 10%
337 2% 9%
338 1.0% 6%
339 1.1% 5%
340 0.8% 4%
341 0.8% 4%
342 0.5% 3%
343 0.5% 2%
344 0.5% 2%
345 0.2% 1.3%
346 0.2% 1.1%
347 0.2% 0.9%
348 0.2% 0.6%
349 0.1% 0.5%
350 0.1% 0.4%
351 0.1% 0.2%
352 0.1% 0.2%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0.1% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.2% 99.3%
230 0.3% 99.1%
231 0.3% 98.8%
232 0.4% 98.5%
233 0.6% 98%
234 0.6% 97%
235 0.7% 97%
236 0.6% 96%
237 1.0% 96%
238 1.0% 95%
239 2% 94%
240 0.8% 92%
241 2% 91%
242 2% 89%
243 2% 87%
244 2% 85%
245 2% 83%
246 2% 82%
247 3% 80%
248 3% 77%
249 2% 74%
250 2% 72%
251 7% 70%
252 4% 63%
253 8% 59%
254 9% 51%
255 3% 42%
256 2% 40%
257 3% 38%
258 3% 35%
259 4% 31%
260 3% 27%
261 2% 24%
262 2% 22%
263 2% 20%
264 1.4% 18%
265 0.8% 16%
266 0.7% 16%
267 0.9% 15%
268 3% 14%
269 2% 11%
270 1.2% 10%
271 0.8% 9%
272 0.8% 8%
273 1.0% 7%
274 1.1% 6%
275 0.6% 5%
276 0.6% 4%
277 0.7% 4%
278 0.4% 3%
279 0.3% 3%
280 0.3% 2%
281 0.2% 2%
282 0.3% 2%
283 0.1% 2%
284 0.3% 1.4%
285 0.2% 1.2%
286 0.2% 1.0%
287 0.2% 0.8%
288 0.1% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.3%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 2% 98%
2 11% 97%
3 35% 85%
4 20% 50%
5 13% 30%
6 9% 18%
7 2% 9%
8 2% 6%
9 3% 5%
10 0.9% 2%
11 0.3% 1.0%
12 0.4% 0.7%
13 0.2% 0.3%
14 0.1% 0.1%
15 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0% 100%
7 0.1% 99.9%
8 0.1% 99.8%
9 0.1% 99.8%
10 0.1% 99.7%
11 0.1% 99.6%
12 0.2% 99.5%
13 0.1% 99.4%
14 0.3% 99.2%
15 0.1% 98.9%
16 0.1% 98.8%
17 0.3% 98.7%
18 0.3% 98%
19 0.3% 98%
20 0.4% 98%
21 0.6% 97%
22 0.5% 97%
23 0.5% 96%
24 0.4% 96%
25 0.3% 95%
26 0.4% 95%
27 0.6% 95%
28 0.7% 94%
29 1.0% 93%
30 0.7% 92%
31 1.2% 91%
32 2% 90%
33 1.3% 89%
34 1.0% 87%
35 2% 86%
36 2% 85%
37 2% 82%
38 2% 81%
39 1.4% 79%
40 1.3% 77%
41 2% 76%
42 0.4% 74%
43 1.1% 74%
44 1.1% 73%
45 2% 71%
46 2% 70%
47 3% 67%
48 4% 64%
49 6% 60%
50 10% 54%
51 16% 44%
52 10% 28%
53 4% 18%
54 6% 14%
55 6% 8%
56 2% 2%
57 0.1% 0.2%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.8% 100%
1 0.2% 0.2%
2 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 372 354–385 349–389 343–392 333–398
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 327 319–340 318–343 316–346 310–353
Conservative Party 331 323 316–336 314–339 312–342 306–348
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 306 293–313 290–315 287–317 281–323
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 302 289–310 286–311 283–313 276–319
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 257 244–275 240–280 237–286 230–296
Labour Party 232 254 241–269 237–275 233–279 227–289

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
324 0% 100%
325 0% 99.9%
326 0% 99.9%
327 0% 99.9%
328 0% 99.9%
329 0.1% 99.8%
330 0.1% 99.8%
331 0.1% 99.7%
332 0.1% 99.6%
333 0.2% 99.5%
334 0.1% 99.3%
335 0.2% 99.2%
336 0.2% 99.1%
337 0.1% 98.9%
338 0.2% 98.8%
339 0.2% 98.6%
340 0.2% 98%
341 0.2% 98%
342 0.3% 98%
343 0.4% 98%
344 0.2% 97%
345 0.5% 97%
346 0.4% 97%
347 0.6% 96%
348 0.6% 96%
349 0.7% 95%
350 0.9% 94%
351 1.1% 93%
352 1.0% 92%
353 1.1% 91%
354 0.7% 90%
355 2% 89%
356 1.4% 88%
357 1.4% 87%
358 1.1% 85%
359 0.6% 84%
360 1.1% 83%
361 1.4% 82%
362 2% 81%
363 2% 79%
364 2% 78%
365 2% 75%
366 3% 73%
367 4% 70%
368 3% 66%
369 3% 63%
370 3% 59%
371 6% 56%
372 5% 50%
373 5% 45%
374 5% 40%
375 4% 34%
376 3% 30%
377 1.5% 27%
378 3% 25%
379 3% 22%
380 3% 20%
381 2% 17%
382 1.5% 15%
383 2% 14%
384 2% 12%
385 1.4% 10%
386 1.3% 9%
387 2% 8%
388 0.7% 6%
389 1.0% 5%
390 0.8% 4%
391 0.6% 4%
392 0.6% 3%
393 0.6% 2%
394 0.3% 2%
395 0.3% 1.4%
396 0.3% 1.1%
397 0.2% 0.8%
398 0.2% 0.7%
399 0.1% 0.5%
400 0.1% 0.4%
401 0.1% 0.3%
402 0.1% 0.2%
403 0% 0.1%
404 0% 0.1%
405 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
303 0% 100%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0.2% 99.8%
309 0.1% 99.7%
310 0.1% 99.6%
311 0.1% 99.5%
312 0.3% 99.4%
313 0.2% 99.1%
314 0.6% 98.9%
315 0.5% 98%
316 0.5% 98%
317 1.4% 97%
318 3% 96%
319 4% 93%
320 2% 88%
321 3% 86%
322 2% 83%
323 5% 81%
324 9% 76%
325 5% 67%
326 7% 62%
327 7% 54%
328 5% 47%
329 5% 42%
330 3% 38%
331 5% 35%
332 3% 30%
333 3% 27%
334 2% 24%
335 3% 21%
336 3% 18%
337 2% 16%
338 2% 13%
339 1.3% 12%
340 2% 11%
341 1.3% 8%
342 1.4% 7%
343 1.1% 6%
344 0.7% 4%
345 0.5% 4%
346 0.8% 3%
347 0.6% 2%
348 0.3% 2%
349 0.3% 2%
350 0.3% 1.3%
351 0.2% 1.0%
352 0.2% 0.7%
353 0.1% 0.6%
354 0.1% 0.4%
355 0.1% 0.3%
356 0.1% 0.2%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0.1%
359 0% 0.1%
360 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
299 0% 100%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0.2% 99.8%
305 0.1% 99.7%
306 0.1% 99.6%
307 0.1% 99.4%
308 0.3% 99.4%
309 0.2% 99.1%
310 0.5% 98.9%
311 0.7% 98%
312 0.5% 98%
313 0.8% 97%
314 2% 96%
315 4% 94%
316 5% 91%
317 2% 86%
318 4% 84%
319 2% 80%
320 7% 78%
321 8% 71%
322 6% 63%
323 9% 57%
324 7% 48%
325 5% 40%
326 3% 36%
327 4% 33%
328 4% 29%
329 2% 25%
330 2% 23%
331 3% 21%
332 2% 18%
333 2% 16%
334 2% 13%
335 1.1% 11%
336 1.2% 10%
337 2% 9%
338 1.0% 6%
339 1.1% 5%
340 0.8% 4%
341 0.8% 4%
342 0.5% 3%
343 0.5% 2%
344 0.5% 2%
345 0.2% 1.3%
346 0.2% 1.1%
347 0.2% 0.9%
348 0.2% 0.6%
349 0.1% 0.5%
350 0.1% 0.4%
351 0.1% 0.2%
352 0.1% 0.2%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0.1% 99.9%
278 0.1% 99.8%
279 0.2% 99.8%
280 0.1% 99.6%
281 0.2% 99.5%
282 0.2% 99.3%
283 0.2% 99.1%
284 0.2% 98.9%
285 0.5% 98.7%
286 0.5% 98%
287 0.5% 98%
288 0.8% 97%
289 0.8% 96%
290 1.1% 96%
291 1.0% 95%
292 2% 94%
293 1.2% 91%
294 1.1% 90%
295 2% 89%
296 2% 87%
297 2% 84%
298 3% 82%
299 2% 79%
300 2% 77%
301 4% 75%
302 4% 71%
303 3% 67%
304 5% 64%
305 7% 59%
306 9% 52%
307 6% 43%
308 8% 37%
309 7% 29%
310 2% 22%
311 4% 20%
312 2% 16%
313 4% 14%
314 4% 9%
315 2% 6%
316 0.8% 4%
317 0.5% 3%
318 0.7% 2%
319 0.5% 2%
320 0.2% 1.1%
321 0.3% 0.9%
322 0.1% 0.6%
323 0.1% 0.6%
324 0.1% 0.4%
325 0.2% 0.3%
326 0% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
270 0% 100%
271 0% 99.9%
272 0% 99.9%
273 0.1% 99.9%
274 0.1% 99.8%
275 0.1% 99.7%
276 0.1% 99.6%
277 0.2% 99.4%
278 0.2% 99.3%
279 0.4% 99.0%
280 0.3% 98.7%
281 0.3% 98%
282 0.6% 98%
283 0.8% 98%
284 0.5% 97%
285 0.7% 96%
286 1.1% 95%
287 1.4% 94%
288 1.3% 93%
289 2% 92%
290 1.3% 89%
291 2% 88%
292 2% 87%
293 3% 84%
294 3% 82%
295 2% 78%
296 3% 76%
297 3% 73%
298 5% 70%
299 3% 65%
300 5% 62%
301 5% 57%
302 7% 52%
303 7% 45%
304 5% 38%
305 9% 33%
306 5% 23%
307 2% 18%
308 3% 17%
309 2% 14%
310 4% 11%
311 3% 7%
312 1.3% 4%
313 0.5% 3%
314 0.5% 2%
315 0.6% 2%
316 0.2% 1.1%
317 0.3% 0.9%
318 0.1% 0.6%
319 0.1% 0.5%
320 0.1% 0.4%
321 0.2% 0.3%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
225 0% 100%
226 0% 99.9%
227 0.1% 99.9%
228 0.1% 99.8%
229 0.1% 99.7%
230 0.1% 99.6%
231 0.2% 99.5%
232 0.2% 99.3%
233 0.3% 99.2%
234 0.3% 98.8%
235 0.3% 98.5%
236 0.6% 98%
237 0.6% 98%
238 0.6% 97%
239 0.8% 96%
240 1.0% 96%
241 0.7% 95%
242 2% 94%
243 1.3% 92%
244 1.4% 91%
245 2% 90%
246 2% 88%
247 2% 86%
248 2% 85%
249 3% 83%
250 3% 80%
251 3% 78%
252 1.5% 75%
253 4% 73%
254 4% 70%
255 5% 65%
256 5% 60%
257 5% 55%
258 6% 50%
259 3% 44%
260 3% 41%
261 3% 37%
262 4% 34%
263 3% 30%
264 2% 27%
265 2% 25%
266 2% 22%
267 2% 21%
268 1.4% 19%
269 1.1% 18%
270 0.6% 16%
271 1.1% 16%
272 1.4% 15%
273 1.4% 13%
274 2% 12%
275 0.7% 10%
276 1.2% 10%
277 1.0% 9%
278 1.1% 8%
279 1.0% 7%
280 0.7% 6%
281 0.6% 5%
282 0.6% 4%
283 0.4% 4%
284 0.5% 3%
285 0.2% 3%
286 0.4% 3%
287 0.3% 2%
288 0.2% 2%
289 0.2% 2%
290 0.2% 2%
291 0.2% 1.4%
292 0.1% 1.2%
293 0.2% 1.1%
294 0.1% 0.9%
295 0.1% 0.8%
296 0.2% 0.7%
297 0.1% 0.5%
298 0.1% 0.4%
299 0.1% 0.3%
300 0.1% 0.2%
301 0% 0.2%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
222 0% 100%
223 0.1% 99.9%
224 0.1% 99.9%
225 0.1% 99.8%
226 0.1% 99.7%
227 0.1% 99.6%
228 0.1% 99.5%
229 0.2% 99.3%
230 0.3% 99.1%
231 0.3% 98.8%
232 0.4% 98.5%
233 0.6% 98%
234 0.6% 97%
235 0.7% 97%
236 0.6% 96%
237 1.0% 96%
238 1.0% 95%
239 2% 94%
240 0.8% 92%
241 2% 91%
242 2% 89%
243 2% 87%
244 2% 85%
245 2% 83%
246 2% 82%
247 3% 80%
248 3% 77%
249 2% 74%
250 2% 72%
251 7% 70%
252 4% 63%
253 8% 59%
254 9% 51%
255 3% 42%
256 2% 40%
257 3% 38%
258 3% 35%
259 4% 31%
260 3% 27%
261 2% 24%
262 2% 22%
263 2% 20%
264 1.4% 18%
265 0.8% 16%
266 0.7% 16%
267 0.9% 15%
268 3% 14%
269 2% 11%
270 1.2% 10%
271 0.8% 9%
272 0.8% 8%
273 1.0% 7%
274 1.1% 6%
275 0.6% 5%
276 0.6% 4%
277 0.7% 4%
278 0.4% 3%
279 0.3% 3%
280 0.3% 2%
281 0.2% 2%
282 0.3% 2%
283 0.1% 2%
284 0.3% 1.4%
285 0.2% 1.2%
286 0.2% 1.0%
287 0.2% 0.8%
288 0.1% 0.6%
289 0.1% 0.6%
290 0.1% 0.4%
291 0.1% 0.3%
292 0% 0.2%
293 0% 0.2%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations