Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 2–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 44.8% 43.1–45.8% 42.7–46.2% 42.4–46.6% 41.7–47.2%
Labour Party 30.4% 36.5% 34.9–37.6% 34.5–37.9% 34.2–38.3% 33.6–38.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.1% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 4.5% 4.0–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Green Party 3.8% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 340 324–350 323–353 322–355 319–359
Labour Party 232 238 224–253 222–259 220–263 216–273
Liberal Democrats 8 3 2–6 1–7 1–9 0–12
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 50 35–54 31–55 24–56 14–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 2–5 1–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
314 0.1% 100%
315 0.1% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.1% 99.7%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.1% 99.5%
320 0.6% 99.4%
321 1.1% 98.9%
322 2% 98%
323 3% 96%
324 3% 92%
325 2% 90%
326 0.9% 88%
327 0.9% 87%
328 2% 86%
329 2% 85%
330 1.3% 82%
331 3% 81%
332 5% 78%
333 3% 73%
334 3% 70%
335 3% 68%
336 3% 65%
337 2% 62%
338 5% 60%
339 2% 54%
340 2% 52%
341 5% 50%
342 5% 44%
343 4% 40%
344 4% 36%
345 4% 31%
346 5% 28%
347 3% 23%
348 3% 20%
349 6% 18%
350 3% 12%
351 1.4% 9%
352 2% 8%
353 1.2% 6%
354 2% 5%
355 0.9% 3%
356 0.9% 2%
357 0.2% 1.0%
358 0.3% 0.8%
359 0.2% 0.6%
360 0.2% 0.4%
361 0.1% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0% 100%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.8%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.2% 99.6%
217 0.2% 99.4%
218 0.4% 99.2%
219 0.7% 98.8%
220 1.4% 98%
221 1.2% 97%
222 2% 96%
223 3% 93%
224 3% 91%
225 4% 88%
226 2% 84%
227 2% 82%
228 3% 81%
229 2% 78%
230 2% 75%
231 4% 74%
232 4% 70%
233 3% 66%
234 4% 63%
235 2% 59%
236 2% 57%
237 4% 55%
238 3% 50%
239 3% 47%
240 3% 44%
241 4% 42%
242 4% 38%
243 3% 34%
244 2% 31%
245 2% 29%
246 1.5% 26%
247 3% 25%
248 2% 22%
249 4% 20%
250 1.0% 16%
251 2% 15%
252 2% 13%
253 2% 11%
254 1.1% 9%
255 0.9% 8%
256 0.6% 7%
257 0.5% 7%
258 0.5% 6%
259 0.6% 6%
260 0.6% 5%
261 0.8% 4%
262 0.5% 4%
263 0.5% 3%
264 0.4% 2%
265 0.3% 2%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0.2% 1.4%
269 0.2% 1.1%
270 0.1% 1.0%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.7%
274 0.1% 0.5%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0.1% 0.3%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 2% 100%
1 7% 98%
2 25% 91%
3 25% 66%
4 14% 41%
5 12% 28%
6 6% 16%
7 4% 9%
8 2% 5%
9 1.4% 3%
10 0.9% 2%
11 0.4% 1.1%
12 0.4% 0.7%
13 0.2% 0.4%
14 0.1% 0.1%
15 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
6 0% 100%
7 0% 99.9%
8 0.1% 99.9%
9 0% 99.9%
10 0.1% 99.8%
11 0% 99.8%
12 0.1% 99.7%
13 0.1% 99.7%
14 0.1% 99.6%
15 0.1% 99.5%
16 0.1% 99.4%
17 0.1% 99.3%
18 0.1% 99.2%
19 0.1% 99.1%
20 0.4% 99.0%
21 0.1% 98.7%
22 0.2% 98.5%
23 0.3% 98%
24 0.5% 98%
25 0.2% 97%
26 0.3% 97%
27 0.4% 97%
28 0.6% 97%
29 0.4% 96%
30 0.5% 96%
31 1.1% 95%
32 0.7% 94%
33 2% 93%
34 2% 92%
35 0.9% 90%
36 1.4% 89%
37 2% 88%
38 0.5% 85%
39 1.1% 85%
40 0.6% 84%
41 2% 83%
42 0.6% 81%
43 1.1% 80%
44 1.0% 79%
45 4% 78%
46 3% 75%
47 8% 71%
48 6% 63%
49 6% 57%
50 10% 51%
51 8% 41%
52 7% 33%
53 3% 26%
54 14% 24%
55 6% 10%
56 4% 4%
57 0.1% 0.1%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 93% 100%
1 7% 7%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 3% 100%
1 4% 97%
2 4% 93%
3 39% 89%
4 12% 50%
5 38% 38%
6 0.2% 0.4%
7 0.2% 0.2%
8 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 391 374–406 368–408 363–409 351–413
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 387 371–401 364–404 359–405 347–409
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 344 328–354 326–357 324–359 322–365
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 344 328–354 326–357 324–359 322–363
Conservative Party 331 340 324–350 323–353 322–355 319–359
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 292 281–307 278–309 277–310 273–313
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 288 278–304 275–306 273–308 269–310
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 288 278–304 275–306 273–308 267–310
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 285 274–300 271–302 269–304 264–307
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 245 231–261 228–268 227–273 223–285
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 241 226–258 224–264 223–269 219–281
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 241 227–256 225–264 224–267 220–277
Labour Party 232 238 224–253 222–259 220–263 216–273

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
339 0% 100%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0% 99.9%
343 0% 99.9%
344 0% 99.8%
345 0.1% 99.8%
346 0.1% 99.8%
347 0% 99.7%
348 0% 99.7%
349 0.1% 99.6%
350 0.1% 99.6%
351 0% 99.5%
352 0.1% 99.5%
353 0.1% 99.4%
354 0.1% 99.3%
355 0.1% 99.2%
356 0.1% 99.1%
357 0.2% 99.0%
358 0.1% 98.8%
359 0.1% 98.7%
360 0.4% 98.6%
361 0.4% 98%
362 0.2% 98%
363 0.4% 98%
364 0.3% 97%
365 0.4% 97%
366 0.6% 97%
367 0.4% 96%
368 0.6% 95%
369 0.9% 95%
370 0.6% 94%
371 0.8% 93%
372 0.7% 93%
373 1.5% 92%
374 1.2% 90%
375 1.2% 89%
376 1.0% 88%
377 1.0% 87%
378 2% 86%
379 2% 85%
380 3% 83%
381 3% 80%
382 2% 76%
383 2% 75%
384 2% 73%
385 3% 70%
386 4% 67%
387 4% 63%
388 2% 59%
389 3% 57%
390 3% 53%
391 4% 50%
392 3% 47%
393 2% 43%
394 3% 41%
395 4% 38%
396 2% 34%
397 3% 32%
398 4% 29%
399 3% 25%
400 1.3% 22%
401 2% 21%
402 1.1% 19%
403 2% 18%
404 2% 16%
405 4% 14%
406 3% 10%
407 2% 7%
408 2% 5%
409 1.2% 3%
410 0.4% 2%
411 0.5% 1.3%
412 0.2% 0.8%
413 0.1% 0.6%
414 0.1% 0.4%
415 0.1% 0.3%
416 0.1% 0.2%
417 0% 0.2%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0.1%
420 0% 0.1%
421 0% 0.1%
422 0% 0.1%
423 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
335 0% 100%
336 0% 99.9%
337 0% 99.9%
338 0% 99.9%
339 0% 99.9%
340 0% 99.9%
341 0% 99.9%
342 0.1% 99.9%
343 0.1% 99.8%
344 0.1% 99.7%
345 0% 99.6%
346 0% 99.6%
347 0% 99.5%
348 0.1% 99.5%
349 0.1% 99.4%
350 0.1% 99.4%
351 0.1% 99.3%
352 0.1% 99.2%
353 0.1% 99.1%
354 0.2% 99.0%
355 0.3% 98.8%
356 0.3% 98.5%
357 0.1% 98%
358 0.4% 98%
359 0.3% 98%
360 0.4% 97%
361 0.3% 97%
362 0.6% 97%
363 0.6% 96%
364 1.3% 96%
365 0.5% 94%
366 0.5% 94%
367 0.4% 93%
368 0.4% 93%
369 0.7% 93%
370 1.3% 92%
371 1.3% 91%
372 1.2% 89%
373 1.4% 88%
374 2% 87%
375 3% 84%
376 2% 81%
377 3% 80%
378 1.5% 76%
379 2% 75%
380 1.4% 73%
381 2% 71%
382 3% 69%
383 4% 67%
384 5% 62%
385 2% 58%
386 3% 55%
387 5% 53%
388 3% 48%
389 3% 45%
390 1.4% 42%
391 3% 40%
392 5% 37%
393 4% 32%
394 3% 28%
395 2% 26%
396 3% 23%
397 1.5% 21%
398 2% 19%
399 1.2% 17%
400 4% 16%
401 3% 12%
402 2% 10%
403 3% 8%
404 2% 5%
405 2% 3%
406 0.7% 2%
407 0.3% 1.1%
408 0.2% 0.8%
409 0.1% 0.6%
410 0.1% 0.4%
411 0.1% 0.3%
412 0.1% 0.2%
413 0% 0.2%
414 0% 0.1%
415 0% 0.1%
416 0% 0.1%
417 0% 0.1%
418 0% 0.1%
419 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0% 100%
318 0.1% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.9%
320 0.1% 99.7%
321 0.1% 99.7%
322 0.3% 99.6%
323 0.7% 99.3%
324 1.3% 98.6%
325 2% 97%
326 1.5% 96%
327 2% 94%
328 2% 92%
329 2% 90%
330 2% 88%
331 1.2% 87%
332 2% 85%
333 2% 83%
334 4% 81%
335 3% 78%
336 3% 75%
337 2% 72%
338 2% 69%
339 4% 68%
340 2% 64%
341 5% 61%
342 3% 56%
343 2% 53%
344 4% 51%
345 6% 47%
346 4% 41%
347 2% 36%
348 2% 34%
349 3% 32%
350 2% 29%
351 9% 27%
352 3% 18%
353 2% 14%
354 3% 12%
355 2% 10%
356 2% 8%
357 2% 6%
358 2% 5%
359 0.9% 3%
360 0.3% 2%
361 0.4% 2%
362 0.2% 1.2%
363 0.3% 0.9%
364 0.1% 0.6%
365 0.1% 0.5%
366 0.1% 0.4%
367 0.1% 0.3%
368 0.1% 0.2%
369 0% 0.1%
370 0% 0.1%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
317 0.1% 100%
318 0.1% 99.9%
319 0.1% 99.8%
320 0.1% 99.7%
321 0.1% 99.6%
322 0.2% 99.6%
323 0.7% 99.3%
324 1.2% 98.6%
325 0.9% 97%
326 2% 97%
327 2% 94%
328 2% 92%
329 2% 90%
330 0.8% 88%
331 2% 87%
332 2% 86%
333 1.3% 84%
334 2% 82%
335 4% 80%
336 5% 77%
337 3% 71%
338 2% 69%
339 4% 66%
340 3% 62%
341 4% 59%
342 2% 56%
343 2% 53%
344 2% 51%
345 3% 49%
346 4% 46%
347 6% 41%
348 6% 36%
349 4% 30%
350 3% 25%
351 3% 22%
352 3% 19%
353 3% 16%
354 3% 13%
355 2% 9%
356 1.1% 8%
357 2% 6%
358 1.1% 4%
359 1.3% 3%
360 0.5% 2%
361 0.5% 1.2%
362 0.2% 0.8%
363 0.2% 0.6%
364 0.1% 0.4%
365 0.1% 0.3%
366 0.1% 0.2%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0.1%
369 0% 0.1%
370 0% 0.1%
371 0% 0.1%
372 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
314 0.1% 100%
315 0.1% 99.9%
316 0.1% 99.8%
317 0.1% 99.7%
318 0.1% 99.7%
319 0.1% 99.5%
320 0.6% 99.4%
321 1.1% 98.9%
322 2% 98%
323 3% 96%
324 3% 92%
325 2% 90%
326 0.9% 88%
327 0.9% 87%
328 2% 86%
329 2% 85%
330 1.3% 82%
331 3% 81%
332 5% 78%
333 3% 73%
334 3% 70%
335 3% 68%
336 3% 65%
337 2% 62%
338 5% 60%
339 2% 54%
340 2% 52%
341 5% 50%
342 5% 44%
343 4% 40%
344 4% 36%
345 4% 31%
346 5% 28%
347 3% 23%
348 3% 20%
349 6% 18%
350 3% 12%
351 1.4% 9%
352 2% 8%
353 1.2% 6%
354 2% 5%
355 0.9% 3%
356 0.9% 2%
357 0.2% 1.0%
358 0.3% 0.8%
359 0.2% 0.6%
360 0.2% 0.4%
361 0.1% 0.2%
362 0% 0.2%
363 0% 0.1%
364 0% 0.1%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
265 0% 100%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0% 99.9%
268 0% 99.9%
269 0% 99.9%
270 0% 99.9%
271 0.1% 99.8%
272 0.2% 99.7%
273 0.2% 99.5%
274 0.2% 99.4%
275 0.3% 99.1%
276 0.9% 98.9%
277 0.9% 98%
278 2% 97%
279 1.1% 95%
280 2% 94%
281 2% 92%
282 2% 90%
283 6% 88%
284 2% 82%
285 3% 79%
286 4% 77%
287 4% 72%
288 4% 68%
289 5% 64%
290 4% 60%
291 5% 55%
292 2% 50%
293 2% 48%
294 5% 46%
295 2% 40%
296 3% 38%
297 3% 35%
298 3% 32%
299 3% 29%
300 5% 26%
301 3% 22%
302 1.3% 19%
303 2% 18%
304 2% 15%
305 0.9% 14%
306 0.9% 13%
307 2% 12%
308 2% 10%
309 3% 7%
310 2% 4%
311 1.1% 2%
312 0.6% 1.1%
313 0.1% 0.6%
314 0.1% 0.5%
315 0.1% 0.3%
316 0.1% 0.3%
317 0.1% 0.2%
318 0.1% 0.1%
319 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
261 0% 100%
262 0% 99.9%
263 0% 99.9%
264 0% 99.9%
265 0% 99.9%
266 0.1% 99.9%
267 0.1% 99.8%
268 0.1% 99.7%
269 0.2% 99.6%
270 0.2% 99.4%
271 0.5% 99.2%
272 0.6% 98.7%
273 1.4% 98%
274 1.0% 97%
275 2% 96%
276 2% 93%
277 1.4% 92%
278 4% 90%
279 3% 87%
280 3% 84%
281 3% 81%
282 4% 78%
283 4% 74%
284 6% 70%
285 6% 64%
286 5% 58%
287 3% 54%
288 2% 51%
289 3% 49%
290 2% 46%
291 4% 44%
292 3% 41%
293 5% 38%
294 2% 33%
295 3% 31%
296 5% 28%
297 4% 23%
298 2% 20%
299 1.2% 18%
300 2% 16%
301 2% 14%
302 0.8% 13%
303 2% 12%
304 2% 10%
305 2% 8%
306 2% 6%
307 0.8% 3%
308 1.2% 3%
309 0.7% 1.4%
310 0.2% 0.6%
311 0.1% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0.1% 0.1%
315 0.1% 0.1%
316 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
261 0% 100%
262 0% 99.9%
263 0% 99.9%
264 0.1% 99.9%
265 0.1% 99.8%
266 0.1% 99.7%
267 0.1% 99.6%
268 0.1% 99.5%
269 0.3% 99.3%
270 0.3% 99.0%
271 0.4% 98.8%
272 0.3% 98%
273 0.9% 98%
274 2% 97%
275 2% 95%
276 2% 94%
277 2% 92%
278 3% 90%
279 3% 87%
280 3% 85%
281 9% 82%
282 2% 73%
283 3% 71%
284 2% 68%
285 2% 65%
286 4% 63%
287 6% 59%
288 4% 53%
289 2% 49%
290 3% 47%
291 5% 44%
292 2% 39%
293 4% 36%
294 2% 32%
295 2% 30%
296 3% 28%
297 3% 25%
298 4% 22%
299 2% 18%
300 2% 17%
301 1.3% 15%
302 2% 13%
303 2% 12%
304 2% 10%
305 2% 8%
306 1.4% 6%
307 2% 4%
308 1.3% 3%
309 0.7% 1.4%
310 0.3% 0.7%
311 0.1% 0.4%
312 0.1% 0.3%
313 0.1% 0.3%
314 0.1% 0.1%
315 0% 0.1%
316 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
257 0% 100%
258 0% 99.9%
259 0.1% 99.9%
260 0% 99.8%
261 0.1% 99.8%
262 0.1% 99.7%
263 0.1% 99.7%
264 0.2% 99.5%
265 0.2% 99.3%
266 0.3% 99.1%
267 0.4% 98.9%
268 0.6% 98%
269 0.7% 98%
270 1.4% 97%
271 2% 96%
272 2% 94%
273 2% 93%
274 2% 90%
275 3% 88%
276 4% 86%
277 3% 82%
278 7% 79%
279 3% 72%
280 4% 69%
281 4% 66%
282 6% 62%
283 3% 56%
284 3% 53%
285 3% 50%
286 3% 48%
287 2% 45%
288 4% 43%
289 2% 38%
290 4% 36%
291 3% 32%
292 2% 29%
293 4% 26%
294 4% 23%
295 2% 19%
296 1.4% 17%
297 2% 16%
298 1.2% 14%
299 2% 13%
300 2% 11%
301 2% 9%
302 2% 7%
303 2% 5%
304 1.2% 3%
305 1.0% 2%
306 0.3% 0.8%
307 0.1% 0.5%
308 0.1% 0.4%
309 0.1% 0.3%
310 0.1% 0.2%
311 0.1% 0.1%
312 0% 0.1%
313 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
214 0% 100%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0% 99.9%
218 0% 99.9%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.8%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.7%
223 0.2% 99.5%
224 0.2% 99.4%
225 0.3% 99.2%
226 0.8% 98.8%
227 2% 98%
228 2% 96%
229 2% 94%
230 2% 92%
231 3% 90%
232 4% 87%
233 1.3% 84%
234 2% 82%
235 2% 80%
236 3% 79%
237 2% 76%
238 3% 74%
239 4% 72%
240 5% 68%
241 4% 63%
242 2% 59%
243 3% 58%
244 3% 55%
245 5% 52%
246 3% 47%
247 2% 44%
248 4% 42%
249 4% 38%
250 3% 33%
251 2% 31%
252 1.4% 28%
253 2% 27%
254 1.4% 25%
255 3% 24%
256 2% 20%
257 3% 18%
258 2% 16%
259 1.5% 13%
260 1.2% 12%
261 1.2% 11%
262 1.4% 9%
263 0.8% 8%
264 0.3% 7%
265 0.4% 7%
266 0.4% 7%
267 0.5% 6%
268 1.3% 6%
269 0.6% 4%
270 0.6% 4%
271 0.3% 3%
272 0.4% 3%
273 0.3% 3%
274 0.4% 2%
275 0.1% 2%
276 0.3% 2%
277 0.3% 1.5%
278 0.2% 1.2%
279 0.1% 1.0%
280 0.1% 0.9%
281 0.1% 0.8%
282 0.1% 0.7%
283 0.1% 0.6%
284 0.1% 0.6%
285 0.1% 0.5%
286 0% 0.5%
287 0% 0.4%
288 0.1% 0.4%
289 0.1% 0.3%
290 0.1% 0.2%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0.1%
295 0% 0.1%
296 0% 0.1%
297 0% 0.1%
298 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
210 0% 100%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0.1% 99.8%
217 0.1% 99.8%
218 0.1% 99.7%
219 0.2% 99.6%
220 0.2% 99.4%
221 0.5% 99.2%
222 0.5% 98.6%
223 1.4% 98%
224 2% 97%
225 2% 95%
226 3% 93%
227 4% 90%
228 2% 86%
229 2% 84%
230 1.2% 82%
231 2% 81%
232 2% 79%
233 3% 78%
234 4% 75%
235 3% 71%
236 2% 68%
237 4% 66%
238 3% 62%
239 2% 58%
240 3% 56%
241 4% 53%
242 3% 49%
243 4% 47%
244 2% 43%
245 4% 41%
246 4% 37%
247 3% 33%
248 2% 30%
249 2% 27%
250 2% 25%
251 3% 23%
252 3% 20%
253 2% 17%
254 1.5% 15%
255 1.0% 14%
256 1.0% 13%
257 1.2% 12%
258 1.2% 11%
259 1.4% 10%
260 0.7% 8%
261 0.7% 7%
262 0.6% 7%
263 0.8% 6%
264 0.6% 5%
265 0.4% 5%
266 0.6% 4%
267 0.4% 3%
268 0.3% 3%
269 0.4% 3%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.4% 2%
272 0.4% 2%
273 0.1% 1.4%
274 0.1% 1.3%
275 0.2% 1.2%
276 0.1% 1.0%
277 0.1% 0.9%
278 0.1% 0.8%
279 0.1% 0.7%
280 0.1% 0.6%
281 0% 0.5%
282 0.1% 0.5%
283 0.1% 0.4%
284 0% 0.4%
285 0% 0.3%
286 0.1% 0.3%
287 0.1% 0.2%
288 0% 0.2%
289 0% 0.2%
290 0% 0.1%
291 0% 0.1%
292 0% 0.1%
293 0% 0.1%
294 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
211 0% 100%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.9%
214 0% 99.9%
215 0% 99.9%
216 0% 99.9%
217 0.1% 99.8%
218 0.1% 99.8%
219 0.1% 99.7%
220 0.1% 99.5%
221 0.4% 99.4%
222 0.3% 99.0%
223 0.8% 98.7%
224 1.3% 98%
225 2% 97%
226 2% 95%
227 3% 93%
228 2% 90%
229 2% 88%
230 4% 86%
231 2% 81%
232 2% 79%
233 2% 77%
234 3% 75%
235 2% 72%
236 3% 70%
237 5% 67%
238 3% 61%
239 2% 58%
240 4% 57%
241 4% 53%
242 5% 49%
243 2% 44%
244 3% 43%
245 6% 40%
246 3% 34%
247 2% 31%
248 2% 29%
249 1.1% 28%
250 3% 26%
251 2% 24%
252 3% 22%
253 3% 20%
254 3% 17%
255 2% 14%
256 2% 12%
257 1.2% 10%
258 1.0% 8%
259 0.6% 7%
260 0.4% 7%
261 0.4% 7%
262 0.4% 6%
263 0.6% 6%
264 0.9% 5%
265 0.8% 4%
266 0.8% 3%
267 0.5% 3%
268 0.2% 2%
269 0.1% 2%
270 0.2% 2%
271 0.2% 2%
272 0.4% 1.4%
273 0.1% 1.0%
274 0.1% 0.9%
275 0.1% 0.8%
276 0.1% 0.7%
277 0.1% 0.6%
278 0.1% 0.5%
279 0.1% 0.4%
280 0% 0.4%
281 0% 0.3%
282 0.1% 0.3%
283 0.1% 0.2%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0.1%
287 0% 0.1%
288 0% 0.1%
289 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
207 0% 100%
208 0% 99.9%
209 0% 99.9%
210 0% 99.9%
211 0% 99.9%
212 0% 99.9%
213 0% 99.8%
214 0.1% 99.8%
215 0.1% 99.7%
216 0.2% 99.6%
217 0.2% 99.4%
218 0.4% 99.2%
219 0.7% 98.8%
220 1.4% 98%
221 1.2% 97%
222 2% 96%
223 3% 93%
224 3% 91%
225 4% 88%
226 2% 84%
227 2% 82%
228 3% 81%
229 2% 78%
230 2% 75%
231 4% 74%
232 4% 70%
233 3% 66%
234 4% 63%
235 2% 59%
236 2% 57%
237 4% 55%
238 3% 50%
239 3% 47%
240 3% 44%
241 4% 42%
242 4% 38%
243 3% 34%
244 2% 31%
245 2% 29%
246 1.5% 26%
247 3% 25%
248 2% 22%
249 4% 20%
250 1.0% 16%
251 2% 15%
252 2% 13%
253 2% 11%
254 1.1% 9%
255 0.9% 8%
256 0.6% 7%
257 0.5% 7%
258 0.5% 6%
259 0.6% 6%
260 0.6% 5%
261 0.8% 4%
262 0.5% 4%
263 0.5% 3%
264 0.4% 2%
265 0.3% 2%
266 0.2% 2%
267 0.3% 2%
268 0.2% 1.4%
269 0.2% 1.1%
270 0.1% 1.0%
271 0.1% 0.8%
272 0.1% 0.7%
273 0.2% 0.7%
274 0.1% 0.5%
275 0% 0.4%
276 0.1% 0.4%
277 0% 0.3%
278 0% 0.3%
279 0.1% 0.3%
280 0% 0.2%
281 0% 0.2%
282 0% 0.1%
283 0% 0.1%
284 0% 0.1%
285 0% 0.1%
286 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations