Opinion Poll by Survation for Mail on Sunday, 6–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 41.7% 40.2–42.9% 39.8–43.3% 39.4–43.6% 38.8–44.2%
Labour Party 30.4% 40.5% 39.0–41.7% 38.7–42.1% 38.3–42.4% 37.7–43.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.8% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.4%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 3.6% 3.1–4.1% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 2.4% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.2% 1.7–3.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 312 299–321 294–323 289–324 281–328
Labour Party 232 277 257–296 254–302 251–308 247–318
Liberal Democrats 8 7 3–12 3–13 2–14 2–15
Scottish National Party 56 30 9–50 6–51 5–51 3–54
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 3 7 7–9 5–11 5–13 5–14

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0.1% 99.9%
277 0.1% 99.8%
278 0.1% 99.8%
279 0.1% 99.7%
280 0.1% 99.6%
281 0.1% 99.5%
282 0.2% 99.4%
283 0.4% 99.3%
284 0.1% 98.9%
285 0.1% 98.8%
286 0.1% 98.7%
287 0.3% 98.6%
288 0.7% 98%
289 0.4% 98%
290 1.1% 97%
291 0.3% 96%
292 0.5% 96%
293 0.3% 95%
294 0.6% 95%
295 0.2% 94%
296 0.7% 94%
297 0.8% 93%
298 2% 93%
299 2% 91%
300 1.5% 88%
301 2% 87%
302 2% 85%
303 3% 84%
304 2% 81%
305 3% 79%
306 1.4% 76%
307 3% 75%
308 4% 72%
309 1.2% 68%
310 9% 67%
311 4% 58%
312 5% 54%
313 2% 50%
314 7% 48%
315 5% 41%
316 6% 36%
317 10% 30%
318 5% 20%
319 2% 15%
320 3% 14%
321 2% 10%
322 1.4% 8%
323 2% 7%
324 3% 5%
325 0.5% 2%
326 0.4% 1.4%
327 0.4% 1.0%
328 0.2% 0.6%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0.1% 0.3%
333 0.1% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.9%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.1% 99.6%
247 0.2% 99.6%
248 0.4% 99.4%
249 0.2% 98.9%
250 0.6% 98.7%
251 1.4% 98%
252 0.5% 97%
253 1.2% 96%
254 0.9% 95%
255 0.5% 94%
256 2% 94%
257 2% 92%
258 1.2% 90%
259 0.9% 88%
260 2% 87%
261 1.0% 86%
262 1.0% 85%
263 2% 84%
264 2% 82%
265 4% 79%
266 1.4% 76%
267 1.3% 74%
268 2% 73%
269 7% 71%
270 0.6% 64%
271 1.2% 64%
272 4% 62%
273 1.3% 58%
274 2% 57%
275 2% 55%
276 3% 54%
277 2% 50%
278 0.8% 48%
279 3% 47%
280 2% 44%
281 3% 42%
282 1.0% 39%
283 2% 38%
284 1.3% 36%
285 5% 35%
286 3% 30%
287 3% 27%
288 4% 25%
289 1.0% 20%
290 1.4% 19%
291 0.9% 18%
292 0.4% 17%
293 0.7% 17%
294 1.3% 16%
295 4% 15%
296 1.3% 11%
297 2% 10%
298 0.4% 8%
299 0.3% 7%
300 0.8% 7%
301 0.5% 6%
302 0.8% 6%
303 0.3% 5%
304 0.4% 5%
305 0.7% 4%
306 0.5% 3%
307 0.3% 3%
308 0.3% 3%
309 0.3% 2%
310 0.4% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.1% 1.3%
313 0.1% 1.2%
314 0.1% 1.1%
315 0.1% 1.0%
316 0.2% 1.0%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0.3% 0.7%
319 0% 0.3%
320 0% 0.3%
321 0% 0.3%
322 0.1% 0.2%
323 0.1% 0.2%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.3% 100%
2 3% 99.7%
3 10% 96%
4 9% 87%
5 17% 78%
6 7% 61%
7 8% 54%
8 17% 46%
9 5% 29%
10 4% 23%
11 8% 19%
12 5% 12%
13 3% 7%
14 3% 4%
15 0.6% 1.0%
16 0.1% 0.4%
17 0% 0.3%
18 0.1% 0.3%
19 0.2% 0.2%
20 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
1 0.1% 100%
2 0.3% 99.9%
3 1.3% 99.6%
4 0.7% 98%
5 1.4% 98%
6 2% 96%
7 1.4% 94%
8 2% 93%
9 2% 91%
10 1.0% 89%
11 3% 88%
12 0.6% 85%
13 2% 84%
14 5% 82%
15 0.6% 78%
16 0.7% 77%
17 1.0% 76%
18 4% 75%
19 0.9% 72%
20 3% 71%
21 2% 68%
22 4% 66%
23 0.9% 62%
24 1.4% 61%
25 2% 60%
26 1.1% 58%
27 0.8% 57%
28 2% 56%
29 1.2% 54%
30 6% 53%
31 3% 47%
32 4% 44%
33 3% 41%
34 2% 38%
35 2% 36%
36 2% 34%
37 2% 32%
38 3% 31%
39 2% 28%
40 2% 26%
41 1.0% 24%
42 0.9% 23%
43 0.7% 22%
44 1.3% 21%
45 0.5% 20%
46 0.8% 19%
47 3% 18%
48 3% 15%
49 3% 13%
50 4% 10%
51 4% 6%
52 1.0% 2%
53 0.3% 0.8%
54 0.4% 0.6%
55 0.1% 0.2%
56 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 99.7% 100%
1 0.3% 0.3%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
5 5% 100%
6 2% 95%
7 46% 93%
8 34% 47%
9 3% 12%
10 3% 9%
11 2% 6%
12 0.5% 5%
13 4% 4%
14 0.3% 0.5%
15 0.1% 0.3%
16 0.2% 0.2%
17 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 348 326–369 320–374 314–377 304–381
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 340 318–362 312–366 307–369 296–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 320 311–333 309–338 308–343 304–351
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 313 304–326 301–331 299–337 295–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 311 303–326 301–331 299–335 295–344
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 321 306–329 301–331 297–333 288–337
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 319 306–328 301–331 295–333 288–337
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 305 296–318 293–324 290–329 286–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 292 270–314 266–320 263–325 260–336
Conservative Party 331 312 299–321 294–323 289–324 281–328
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 284 263–306 258–312 255–318 251–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 285 265–304 262–310 258–315 255–325
Labour Party 232 277 257–296 254–302 251–308 247–318

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
294 0% 100%
295 0% 99.9%
296 0% 99.9%
297 0.1% 99.9%
298 0% 99.8%
299 0% 99.8%
300 0% 99.8%
301 0% 99.8%
302 0.1% 99.7%
303 0.1% 99.7%
304 0.4% 99.6%
305 0.1% 99.2%
306 0.1% 99.1%
307 0.1% 99.1%
308 0.1% 98.9%
309 0% 98.9%
310 0.1% 98.8%
311 0.2% 98.8%
312 0.3% 98.5%
313 0.4% 98%
314 0.5% 98%
315 0.4% 97%
316 0.2% 97%
317 0.6% 97%
318 0.5% 96%
319 0.4% 96%
320 0.4% 95%
321 0.2% 95%
322 0.7% 95%
323 0.9% 94%
324 0.7% 93%
325 2% 92%
326 4% 91%
327 0.7% 87%
328 0.4% 86%
329 0.7% 86%
330 1.4% 85%
331 0.6% 84%
332 1.2% 83%
333 2% 82%
334 2% 80%
335 1.1% 78%
336 3% 77%
337 2% 74%
338 1.2% 73%
339 1.4% 71%
340 4% 70%
341 5% 66%
342 1.3% 61%
343 4% 60%
344 0.9% 56%
345 0.8% 55%
346 2% 54%
347 2% 53%
348 2% 51%
349 0.5% 49%
350 2% 48%
351 1.5% 46%
352 3% 44%
353 2% 42%
354 0.7% 40%
355 8% 39%
356 2% 31%
357 0.8% 30%
358 1.3% 29%
359 2% 28%
360 1.0% 26%
361 1.4% 25%
362 1.4% 23%
363 0.9% 22%
364 4% 21%
365 3% 17%
366 0.5% 14%
367 2% 14%
368 0.5% 12%
369 2% 12%
370 1.4% 10%
371 1.2% 8%
372 0.8% 7%
373 1.0% 6%
374 0.5% 5%
375 1.2% 5%
376 0.3% 3%
377 1.5% 3%
378 0.2% 2%
379 0.5% 1.4%
380 0.3% 0.9%
381 0.2% 0.6%
382 0.2% 0.5%
383 0.1% 0.3%
384 0% 0.2%
385 0.1% 0.2%
386 0% 0.1%
387 0% 0.1%
388 0% 0.1%
389 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
286 0% 100%
287 0% 99.9%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0.1% 99.9%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0% 99.8%
294 0% 99.8%
295 0.1% 99.7%
296 0.2% 99.7%
297 0.3% 99.4%
298 0% 99.2%
299 0.1% 99.1%
300 0.2% 99.0%
301 0% 98.9%
302 0.1% 98.8%
303 0.1% 98.7%
304 0.3% 98.6%
305 0.3% 98%
306 0.3% 98%
307 0.7% 98%
308 0.3% 97%
309 0.4% 97%
310 0.6% 96%
311 0.6% 96%
312 0.2% 95%
313 0.2% 95%
314 0.6% 95%
315 0.3% 94%
316 0.8% 94%
317 0.9% 93%
318 4% 92%
319 2% 88%
320 0.6% 86%
321 0.5% 86%
322 1.3% 85%
323 1.2% 84%
324 0.6% 83%
325 1.1% 82%
326 2% 81%
327 1.3% 79%
328 3% 78%
329 0.7% 74%
330 2% 74%
331 1.2% 72%
332 5% 71%
333 2% 66%
334 4% 64%
335 2% 60%
336 3% 58%
337 1.2% 55%
338 0.8% 54%
339 2% 53%
340 1.2% 51%
341 2% 50%
342 0.4% 48%
343 3% 48%
344 1.3% 44%
345 2% 43%
346 3% 42%
347 6% 39%
348 3% 32%
349 0.6% 30%
350 2% 29%
351 1.3% 27%
352 2% 26%
353 1.4% 25%
354 0.9% 23%
355 2% 22%
356 0.5% 20%
357 4% 19%
358 1.4% 15%
359 1.5% 14%
360 1.1% 13%
361 1.1% 11%
362 2% 10%
363 2% 9%
364 0.4% 6%
365 0.6% 6%
366 1.0% 5%
367 0.7% 4%
368 0.9% 4%
369 0.5% 3%
370 0.9% 2%
371 0.1% 1.4%
372 0.8% 1.2%
373 0.1% 0.5%
374 0.2% 0.4%
375 0% 0.2%
376 0.1% 0.2%
377 0% 0.1%
378 0% 0.1%
379 0% 0.1%
380 0% 0.1%
381 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
296 0% 100%
297 0% 99.9%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0.1% 99.9%
301 0% 99.7%
302 0% 99.7%
303 0.1% 99.7%
304 0.2% 99.6%
305 0.4% 99.4%
306 0.4% 99.0%
307 0.5% 98.6%
308 3% 98%
309 2% 95%
310 1.4% 93%
311 2% 92%
312 3% 90%
313 2% 86%
314 5% 85%
315 10% 80%
316 7% 70%
317 4% 64%
318 7% 59%
319 2% 52%
320 5% 50%
321 4% 46%
322 9% 42%
323 1.2% 33%
324 4% 32%
325 3% 28%
326 1.4% 25%
327 3% 24%
328 2% 21%
329 3% 19%
330 2% 16%
331 2% 15%
332 1.5% 13%
333 2% 12%
334 2% 9%
335 0.8% 7%
336 0.7% 7%
337 0.2% 6%
338 0.6% 6%
339 0.3% 5%
340 0.5% 5%
341 0.3% 4%
342 1.1% 4%
343 0.4% 3%
344 0.7% 2%
345 0.4% 2%
346 0.1% 1.4%
347 0.1% 1.3%
348 0.1% 1.2%
349 0.4% 1.1%
350 0.2% 0.7%
351 0.1% 0.6%
352 0.1% 0.5%
353 0.1% 0.4%
354 0.1% 0.3%
355 0.1% 0.2%
356 0.1% 0.2%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
287 0% 100%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0% 99.9%
290 0.1% 99.9%
291 0% 99.8%
292 0% 99.8%
293 0.1% 99.8%
294 0.1% 99.6%
295 0.5% 99.5%
296 0.3% 99.0%
297 0.1% 98.7%
298 0.3% 98.6%
299 2% 98%
300 1.2% 96%
301 2% 95%
302 1.3% 94%
303 1.0% 92%
304 5% 92%
305 3% 86%
306 4% 83%
307 8% 79%
308 3% 71%
309 1.1% 67%
310 7% 66%
311 4% 59%
312 4% 56%
313 5% 52%
314 6% 47%
315 6% 41%
316 2% 35%
317 2% 33%
318 3% 31%
319 3% 28%
320 3% 25%
321 3% 22%
322 2% 20%
323 3% 18%
324 3% 15%
325 0.8% 12%
326 2% 11%
327 0.6% 9%
328 0.9% 9%
329 0.9% 8%
330 1.4% 7%
331 0.7% 5%
332 0.3% 5%
333 0.7% 4%
334 0.1% 4%
335 0.2% 4%
336 0.7% 3%
337 0.6% 3%
338 0.5% 2%
339 0.7% 2%
340 0% 1.0%
341 0.2% 1.0%
342 0% 0.8%
343 0.1% 0.8%
344 0.2% 0.7%
345 0.1% 0.5%
346 0.1% 0.4%
347 0.1% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
287 0% 100%
288 0% 99.9%
289 0.1% 99.9%
290 0% 99.9%
291 0% 99.9%
292 0.1% 99.8%
293 0% 99.7%
294 0.1% 99.7%
295 0.2% 99.6%
296 0.2% 99.4%
297 0.6% 99.2%
298 0.5% 98.6%
299 1.1% 98%
300 1.1% 97%
301 1.4% 96%
302 2% 94%
303 3% 92%
304 2% 90%
305 4% 88%
306 3% 84%
307 10% 81%
308 4% 71%
309 6% 67%
310 7% 60%
311 5% 54%
312 2% 49%
313 4% 47%
314 7% 43%
315 4% 36%
316 2% 32%
317 5% 31%
318 1.3% 26%
319 1.1% 24%
320 3% 23%
321 2% 20%
322 2% 18%
323 3% 16%
324 0.5% 13%
325 1.3% 12%
326 2% 11%
327 1.5% 9%
328 1.1% 7%
329 0.3% 6%
330 0.3% 6%
331 0.6% 5%
332 0.5% 5%
333 0.2% 4%
334 1.1% 4%
335 0.7% 3%
336 0.2% 2%
337 0.5% 2%
338 0.3% 2%
339 0.3% 1.5%
340 0.1% 1.2%
341 0.2% 1.1%
342 0.3% 0.9%
343 0.1% 0.7%
344 0.1% 0.6%
345 0.1% 0.5%
346 0% 0.3%
347 0% 0.3%
348 0.1% 0.2%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
282 0% 100%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0.1% 99.9%
285 0% 99.8%
286 0% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.7%
288 0.1% 99.5%
289 0.1% 99.4%
290 0.3% 99.3%
291 0.2% 99.1%
292 0.1% 98.9%
293 0.3% 98.8%
294 0.3% 98.5%
295 0.5% 98%
296 0.2% 98%
297 0.7% 98%
298 1.1% 97%
299 0.2% 96%
300 0.5% 96%
301 0.6% 95%
302 0.3% 95%
303 0.3% 94%
304 1.1% 94%
305 1.5% 93%
306 2% 91%
307 1.3% 89%
308 0.5% 88%
309 3% 87%
310 2% 84%
311 2% 82%
312 3% 80%
313 1.1% 77%
314 1.3% 76%
315 5% 74%
316 2% 69%
317 4% 68%
318 7% 64%
319 4% 57%
320 2% 53%
321 5% 51%
322 7% 46%
323 6% 40%
324 4% 33%
325 10% 29%
326 3% 19%
327 4% 16%
328 2% 12%
329 3% 10%
330 2% 8%
331 1.4% 5%
332 1.1% 4%
333 1.1% 3%
334 0.5% 2%
335 0.6% 1.4%
336 0.2% 0.8%
337 0.2% 0.6%
338 0.1% 0.4%
339 0% 0.3%
340 0.1% 0.3%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0% 0.1%
343 0.1% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
281 0% 100%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0.1% 99.9%
286 0.1% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0.2% 99.5%
289 0.1% 99.3%
290 0% 99.2%
291 0.2% 99.2%
292 0% 99.0%
293 0.7% 99.0%
294 0.5% 98%
295 0.6% 98%
296 0.7% 97%
297 0.2% 97%
298 0.1% 96%
299 0.7% 96%
300 0.3% 96%
301 0.7% 95%
302 1.4% 95%
303 0.9% 93%
304 0.9% 92%
305 0.6% 91%
306 2% 91%
307 0.8% 89%
308 3% 88%
309 3% 85%
310 2% 82%
311 3% 80%
312 3% 78%
313 3% 75%
314 3% 72%
315 2% 69%
316 2% 67%
317 6% 65%
318 6% 59%
319 5% 53%
320 4% 48%
321 4% 44%
322 7% 40%
323 1.2% 34%
324 3% 32%
325 8% 29%
326 4% 21%
327 3% 17%
328 5% 14%
329 1.0% 8%
330 1.3% 8%
331 2% 6%
332 1.2% 5%
333 2% 4%
334 0.3% 2%
335 0.1% 1.4%
336 0.3% 1.3%
337 0.5% 1.0%
338 0.1% 0.5%
339 0.1% 0.4%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0.1% 0.2%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
279 0% 100%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0.1% 99.9%
283 0.1% 99.8%
284 0% 99.7%
285 0.2% 99.7%
286 0.2% 99.5%
287 0.5% 99.3%
288 0.2% 98.8%
289 0.3% 98.6%
290 0.9% 98%
291 0.8% 97%
292 1.4% 97%
293 1.1% 95%
294 2% 94%
295 2% 92%
296 0.8% 90%
297 6% 90%
298 4% 84%
299 8% 80%
300 2% 72%
301 3% 69%
302 6% 66%
303 5% 61%
304 4% 56%
305 5% 52%
306 5% 48%
307 6% 43%
308 3% 36%
309 2% 34%
310 2% 31%
311 3% 30%
312 4% 27%
313 2% 23%
314 3% 21%
315 1.1% 18%
316 4% 17%
317 3% 14%
318 2% 11%
319 0.4% 9%
320 0.6% 9%
321 0.6% 8%
322 0.6% 8%
323 2% 7%
324 0.4% 5%
325 0.4% 5%
326 0.6% 4%
327 0.1% 4%
328 0.6% 4%
329 0.6% 3%
330 0.4% 2%
331 0.4% 2%
332 0.5% 1.5%
333 0.1% 1.0%
334 0.2% 0.9%
335 0% 0.7%
336 0.1% 0.6%
337 0.1% 0.6%
338 0.2% 0.5%
339 0.2% 0.4%
340 0.1% 0.2%
341 0% 0.1%
342 0.1% 0.1%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
252 0% 100%
253 0% 99.9%
254 0% 99.9%
255 0% 99.9%
256 0.1% 99.9%
257 0% 99.8%
258 0.2% 99.8%
259 0.1% 99.6%
260 0.7% 99.5%
261 0.2% 98.8%
262 0.9% 98.6%
263 0.5% 98%
264 0.9% 97%
265 0.7% 96%
266 1.0% 96%
267 0.6% 95%
268 0.4% 94%
269 2% 94%
270 2% 91%
271 1.1% 90%
272 1.2% 89%
273 1.4% 87%
274 1.4% 86%
275 4% 85%
276 0.5% 81%
277 2% 80%
278 0.9% 78%
279 1.4% 77%
280 2% 75%
281 1.3% 74%
282 2% 73%
283 0.6% 71%
284 3% 70%
285 6% 68%
286 3% 61%
287 2% 58%
288 1.3% 57%
289 3% 56%
290 0.4% 52%
291 2% 52%
292 1.2% 50%
293 2% 49%
294 0.8% 47%
295 1.2% 46%
296 3% 45%
297 2% 42%
298 4% 40%
299 2% 36%
300 5% 34%
301 1.2% 29%
302 2% 28%
303 0.7% 26%
304 3% 26%
305 1.3% 22%
306 2% 21%
307 1.1% 19%
308 0.6% 18%
309 1.2% 17%
310 1.3% 16%
311 0.5% 15%
312 0.6% 14%
313 2% 14%
314 4% 12%
315 0.9% 8%
316 0.8% 7%
317 0.3% 6%
318 0.6% 6%
319 0.2% 5%
320 0.2% 5%
321 0.6% 5%
322 0.6% 4%
323 0.4% 4%
324 0.3% 3%
325 0.7% 3%
326 0.3% 2%
327 0.3% 2%
328 0.3% 2%
329 0.1% 1.4%
330 0.1% 1.3%
331 0% 1.2%
332 0.2% 1.1%
333 0.1% 1.0%
334 0% 0.9%
335 0.3% 0.8%
336 0.2% 0.6%
337 0.1% 0.3%
338 0% 0.3%
339 0% 0.2%
340 0% 0.2%
341 0% 0.2%
342 0.1% 0.2%
343 0% 0.1%
344 0% 0.1%
345 0% 0.1%
346 0% 0.1%
347 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0.1% 99.9%
277 0.1% 99.8%
278 0.1% 99.8%
279 0.1% 99.7%
280 0.1% 99.6%
281 0.1% 99.5%
282 0.2% 99.4%
283 0.4% 99.3%
284 0.1% 98.9%
285 0.1% 98.8%
286 0.1% 98.7%
287 0.3% 98.6%
288 0.7% 98%
289 0.4% 98%
290 1.1% 97%
291 0.3% 96%
292 0.5% 96%
293 0.3% 95%
294 0.6% 95%
295 0.2% 94%
296 0.7% 94%
297 0.8% 93%
298 2% 93%
299 2% 91%
300 1.5% 88%
301 2% 87%
302 2% 85%
303 3% 84%
304 2% 81%
305 3% 79%
306 1.4% 76%
307 3% 75%
308 4% 72%
309 1.2% 68%
310 9% 67%
311 4% 58%
312 5% 54%
313 2% 50%
314 7% 48%
315 5% 41%
316 6% 36%
317 10% 30%
318 5% 20%
319 2% 15%
320 3% 14%
321 2% 10%
322 1.4% 8%
323 2% 7%
324 3% 5%
325 0.5% 2%
326 0.4% 1.4%
327 0.4% 1.0%
328 0.2% 0.6%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0% 0.3%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0.1% 0.3%
333 0.1% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
244 0% 100%
245 0% 99.9%
246 0% 99.9%
247 0.1% 99.9%
248 0% 99.8%
249 0.1% 99.8%
250 0.2% 99.7%
251 0.2% 99.5%
252 0.3% 99.4%
253 0.5% 99.1%
254 0.2% 98.6%
255 1.5% 98%
256 0.3% 97%
257 1.2% 97%
258 0.5% 95%
259 1.0% 95%
260 0.8% 94%
261 1.2% 93%
262 1.4% 92%
263 2% 90%
264 0.5% 88%
265 2% 88%
266 0.4% 86%
267 3% 86%
268 4% 83%
269 0.9% 79%
270 1.4% 78%
271 1.4% 77%
272 1.0% 75%
273 2% 74%
274 1.3% 72%
275 0.8% 71%
276 2% 70%
277 8% 69%
278 0.7% 61%
279 2% 60%
280 3% 58%
281 1.5% 56%
282 2% 54%
283 0.5% 52%
284 2% 51%
285 2% 49%
286 2% 47%
287 0.8% 46%
288 0.9% 45%
289 4% 44%
290 1.3% 40%
291 5% 39%
292 4% 34%
293 1.4% 30%
294 1.2% 29%
295 2% 27%
296 3% 26%
297 1.1% 23%
298 2% 22%
299 2% 20%
300 1.2% 18%
301 0.6% 17%
302 1.4% 16%
303 0.7% 15%
304 0.4% 14%
305 0.7% 14%
306 4% 13%
307 2% 9%
308 0.7% 8%
309 0.9% 7%
310 0.7% 6%
311 0.2% 5%
312 0.4% 5%
313 0.4% 5%
314 0.5% 4%
315 0.6% 4%
316 0.2% 3%
317 0.4% 3%
318 0.5% 3%
319 0.4% 2%
320 0.3% 2%
321 0.2% 1.5%
322 0.1% 1.2%
323 0% 1.2%
324 0.1% 1.1%
325 0.1% 1.1%
326 0.1% 0.9%
327 0.1% 0.9%
328 0.4% 0.8%
329 0.1% 0.4%
330 0.1% 0.3%
331 0% 0.3%
332 0% 0.2%
333 0% 0.2%
334 0% 0.2%
335 0.1% 0.2%
336 0% 0.1%
337 0% 0.1%
338 0% 0.1%
339 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
247 0% 100%
248 0% 99.9%
249 0% 99.9%
250 0.1% 99.9%
251 0% 99.9%
252 0% 99.8%
253 0% 99.8%
254 0.1% 99.8%
255 0.2% 99.6%
256 0.4% 99.4%
257 0.4% 99.0%
258 1.4% 98.6%
259 0.4% 97%
260 1.0% 97%
261 0.3% 96%
262 0.8% 96%
263 0.9% 95%
264 3% 94%
265 2% 91%
266 1.3% 89%
267 2% 88%
268 0.8% 86%
269 2% 86%
270 0.6% 84%
271 2% 84%
272 4% 82%
273 2% 78%
274 1.0% 75%
275 3% 74%
276 0.6% 72%
277 6% 71%
278 1.4% 65%
279 3% 63%
280 2% 60%
281 2% 58%
282 1.1% 56%
283 2% 55%
284 2% 52%
285 2% 50%
286 4% 49%
287 0.6% 45%
288 4% 44%
289 1.3% 41%
290 2% 39%
291 1.0% 37%
292 2% 36%
293 5% 34%
294 4% 29%
295 2% 25%
296 3% 24%
297 2% 21%
298 2% 19%
299 0.7% 18%
300 1.0% 17%
301 0.4% 16%
302 2% 16%
303 3% 13%
304 2% 10%
305 0.7% 8%
306 0.4% 8%
307 1.2% 7%
308 0.2% 6%
309 0.6% 6%
310 0.5% 5%
311 0.3% 5%
312 0.3% 5%
313 1.1% 4%
314 0.4% 3%
315 0.6% 3%
316 0.1% 2%
317 0.2% 2%
318 0.3% 2%
319 0.2% 2%
320 0.1% 1.3%
321 0.1% 1.2%
322 0.2% 1.1%
323 0.2% 1.0%
324 0.1% 0.8%
325 0.3% 0.7%
326 0.1% 0.4%
327 0% 0.3%
328 0% 0.3%
329 0.1% 0.3%
330 0.1% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
239 0% 100%
240 0% 99.9%
241 0% 99.9%
242 0% 99.9%
243 0.1% 99.9%
244 0.1% 99.8%
245 0.1% 99.7%
246 0.1% 99.6%
247 0.2% 99.6%
248 0.4% 99.4%
249 0.2% 98.9%
250 0.6% 98.7%
251 1.4% 98%
252 0.5% 97%
253 1.2% 96%
254 0.9% 95%
255 0.5% 94%
256 2% 94%
257 2% 92%
258 1.2% 90%
259 0.9% 88%
260 2% 87%
261 1.0% 86%
262 1.0% 85%
263 2% 84%
264 2% 82%
265 4% 79%
266 1.4% 76%
267 1.3% 74%
268 2% 73%
269 7% 71%
270 0.6% 64%
271 1.2% 64%
272 4% 62%
273 1.3% 58%
274 2% 57%
275 2% 55%
276 3% 54%
277 2% 50%
278 0.8% 48%
279 3% 47%
280 2% 44%
281 3% 42%
282 1.0% 39%
283 2% 38%
284 1.3% 36%
285 5% 35%
286 3% 30%
287 3% 27%
288 4% 25%
289 1.0% 20%
290 1.4% 19%
291 0.9% 18%
292 0.4% 17%
293 0.7% 17%
294 1.3% 16%
295 4% 15%
296 1.3% 11%
297 2% 10%
298 0.4% 8%
299 0.3% 7%
300 0.8% 7%
301 0.5% 6%
302 0.8% 6%
303 0.3% 5%
304 0.4% 5%
305 0.7% 4%
306 0.5% 3%
307 0.3% 3%
308 0.3% 3%
309 0.3% 2%
310 0.4% 2%
311 0.2% 2%
312 0.1% 1.3%
313 0.1% 1.2%
314 0.1% 1.1%
315 0.1% 1.0%
316 0.2% 1.0%
317 0.1% 0.8%
318 0.3% 0.7%
319 0% 0.3%
320 0% 0.3%
321 0% 0.3%
322 0.1% 0.2%
323 0.1% 0.2%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations