Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 5–7 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 36.9% 41.3% 39.4–42.4% 39.0–42.9% 38.6–43.2% 37.9–44.0%
Labour Party 30.4% 37.1% 35.3–38.3% 34.9–38.7% 34.5–39.1% 33.8–39.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.9% 9.9% 9.0–10.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.5–11.3% 8.1–11.8%
UK Independence Party 12.6% 5.1% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Scottish National Party 4.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 3.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 331 315 305–327 300–332 296–336 289–343
Labour Party 232 253 240–271 235–276 232–279 224–292
Liberal Democrats 8 18 11–25 10–27 9–27 7–30
UK Independence Party 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 56 45 28–52 22–53 17–54 7–56
Green Party 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Plaid Cymru 3 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.8%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0.1% 99.8%
286 0.1% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0% 99.6%
289 0.1% 99.5%
290 0.3% 99.4%
291 0.2% 99.1%
292 0.2% 98.8%
293 0.1% 98.7%
294 0.1% 98.6%
295 0.3% 98.5%
296 1.1% 98%
297 0.4% 97%
298 0.4% 97%
299 0.9% 96%
300 0.7% 95%
301 1.0% 95%
302 1.2% 94%
303 0.9% 93%
304 1.2% 92%
305 3% 90%
306 3% 88%
307 3% 85%
308 6% 81%
309 5% 76%
310 5% 70%
311 4% 65%
312 3% 62%
313 4% 59%
314 4% 55%
315 3% 50%
316 4% 47%
317 6% 42%
318 7% 37%
319 3% 30%
320 3% 26%
321 1.4% 23%
322 3% 22%
323 3% 19%
324 2% 15%
325 1.2% 13%
326 0.8% 12%
327 2% 11%
328 1.2% 10%
329 1.0% 9%
330 0.8% 8%
331 0.9% 7%
332 1.3% 6%
333 0.9% 5%
334 0.5% 4%
335 0.5% 3%
336 0.6% 3%
337 0.5% 2%
338 0.4% 2%
339 0.2% 1.4%
340 0.3% 1.2%
341 0.1% 0.9%
342 0.2% 0.8%
343 0.2% 0.6%
344 0.1% 0.5%
345 0.1% 0.4%
346 0.1% 0.3%
347 0.1% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.1% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.4%
226 0.1% 99.3%
227 0.2% 99.2%
228 0.2% 98.9%
229 0.2% 98.8%
230 0.5% 98.5%
231 0.4% 98%
232 0.6% 98%
233 0.4% 97%
234 0.8% 97%
235 1.0% 96%
236 0.8% 95%
237 1.1% 94%
238 0.8% 93%
239 2% 92%
240 1.3% 90%
241 1.5% 89%
242 2% 88%
243 1.1% 85%
244 4% 84%
245 0.8% 81%
246 3% 80%
247 3% 77%
248 5% 75%
249 3% 69%
250 3% 66%
251 4% 63%
252 5% 59%
253 6% 54%
254 3% 48%
255 4% 45%
256 3% 41%
257 3% 37%
258 6% 34%
259 4% 28%
260 3% 25%
261 3% 22%
262 2% 19%
263 1.4% 17%
264 0.8% 16%
265 0.7% 15%
266 0.8% 14%
267 0.8% 13%
268 0.9% 12%
269 0.7% 12%
270 0.9% 11%
271 1.0% 10%
272 1.3% 9%
273 1.4% 8%
274 0.7% 6%
275 0.5% 6%
276 0.7% 5%
277 0.7% 4%
278 1.2% 4%
279 0.2% 3%
280 0.2% 2%
281 0.1% 2%
282 0.1% 2%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.2% 2%
286 0.1% 1.4%
287 0.1% 1.3%
288 0.1% 1.2%
289 0.1% 1.1%
290 0.3% 1.0%
291 0.1% 0.7%
292 0.2% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0% 0.3%
295 0% 0.3%
296 0% 0.3%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0.1% 0.2%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0.1% 100%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0.2% 99.9%
7 0.5% 99.7%
8 1.3% 99.1%
9 2% 98%
10 4% 96%
11 3% 92%
12 6% 90%
13 3% 84%
14 7% 81%
15 5% 74%
16 7% 69%
17 5% 62%
18 8% 57%
19 10% 49%
20 4% 39%
21 8% 35%
22 5% 27%
23 6% 22%
24 5% 15%
25 5% 11%
26 0.9% 6%
27 4% 5%
28 0.8% 2%
29 0.4% 1.0%
30 0.1% 0.6%
31 0.1% 0.5%
32 0.1% 0.4%
33 0.1% 0.3%
34 0% 0.2%
35 0% 0.2%
36 0% 0.1%
37 0.1% 0.1%
38 0% 0%

UK Independence Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 100% 100%
1 0% 0%

Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
4 0% 100%
5 0.1% 99.9%
6 0.2% 99.8%
7 0.2% 99.7%
8 0.1% 99.5%
9 0.1% 99.4%
10 0.1% 99.3%
11 0.5% 99.2%
12 0.1% 98.7%
13 0% 98.6%
14 0.1% 98.6%
15 0.5% 98.5%
16 0.3% 98%
17 0.4% 98%
18 0.5% 97%
19 0.1% 97%
20 0.5% 97%
21 0.9% 96%
22 0.4% 95%
23 0.2% 95%
24 0.3% 95%
25 1.4% 94%
26 1.5% 93%
27 1.1% 92%
28 0.7% 90%
29 1.3% 90%
30 0.9% 88%
31 2% 88%
32 0.4% 86%
33 2% 86%
34 0.6% 83%
35 1.0% 83%
36 0.5% 82%
37 1.1% 81%
38 0.6% 80%
39 2% 79%
40 2% 77%
41 2% 76%
42 5% 74%
43 6% 69%
44 7% 63%
45 8% 57%
46 8% 48%
47 7% 40%
48 6% 33%
49 6% 26%
50 3% 20%
51 2% 18%
52 8% 15%
53 4% 8%
54 1.4% 4%
55 2% 2%
56 0.6% 1.0%
57 0.3% 0.3%
58 0% 0%

Green Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 98.8% 100%
1 1.2% 1.2%
2 0% 0%

Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
0 19% 100%
1 21% 81%
2 8% 61%
3 40% 52%
4 10% 12%
5 2% 2%
6 0% 0.1%
7 0% 0%

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 390 361 341–376 335–381 331–385 318–393
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 387 358 339–374 333–379 329–383 316–390
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 339 332 323–345 319–349 316–353 309–361
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 334 317 306–329 302–335 299–338 291–345
Conservative Party 331 315 305–327 300–332 296–336 289–343
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 299 317 305–327 300–332 296–336 289–343
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 296 315 303–326 297–330 294–333 287–341
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 291 300 287–309 283–313 279–316 271–323
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 288 298 285–307 280–310 277–314 269–321
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 243 274 258–293 253–299 249–303 242–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 240 271 256–291 251–297 247–301 239–314
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 235 255 241–272 238–277 234–281 226–294
Labour Party 232 253 240–271 235–276 232–279 224–292

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
304 0% 100%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0% 99.9%
310 0% 99.9%
311 0% 99.8%
312 0.1% 99.8%
313 0% 99.8%
314 0.1% 99.8%
315 0.1% 99.7%
316 0% 99.6%
317 0.1% 99.6%
318 0.2% 99.6%
319 0.1% 99.4%
320 0.2% 99.3%
321 0.1% 99.1%
322 0.1% 98.9%
323 0.1% 98.8%
324 0.2% 98.7%
325 0.1% 98.5%
326 0.1% 98%
327 0.2% 98%
328 0.1% 98%
329 0.2% 98%
330 0.3% 98%
331 0.3% 98%
332 0.3% 97%
333 0.7% 97%
334 1.2% 96%
335 0.3% 95%
336 0.6% 95%
337 1.3% 94%
338 0.5% 93%
339 0.7% 92%
340 1.0% 92%
341 0.9% 91%
342 1.1% 90%
343 1.2% 89%
344 0.8% 87%
345 0.5% 87%
346 0.8% 86%
347 1.4% 85%
348 2% 84%
349 0.8% 81%
350 0.8% 81%
351 1.0% 80%
352 2% 79%
353 3% 77%
354 4% 74%
355 5% 70%
356 2% 65%
357 3% 63%
358 4% 60%
359 3% 55%
360 3% 53%
361 3% 50%
362 3% 47%
363 2% 43%
364 2% 42%
365 6% 40%
366 2% 34%
367 3% 32%
368 4% 29%
369 3% 25%
370 1.0% 22%
371 2% 21%
372 1.2% 18%
373 2% 17%
374 3% 15%
375 0.9% 12%
376 1.3% 11%
377 0.9% 10%
378 2% 9%
379 0.8% 7%
380 0.6% 6%
381 0.8% 6%
382 0.6% 5%
383 0.4% 4%
384 0.9% 4%
385 0.5% 3%
386 0.5% 2%
387 0.3% 2%
388 0.2% 2%
389 0.2% 1.4%
390 0.4% 1.2%
391 0.1% 0.8%
392 0.1% 0.7%
393 0.1% 0.5%
394 0.2% 0.5%
395 0.1% 0.3%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.2%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0.1%
401 0% 0.1%
402 0% 0.1%
403 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
302 0% 100%
303 0% 99.9%
304 0% 99.9%
305 0% 99.9%
306 0% 99.9%
307 0% 99.9%
308 0% 99.9%
309 0.1% 99.9%
310 0% 99.8%
311 0.1% 99.8%
312 0% 99.7%
313 0.1% 99.7%
314 0% 99.6%
315 0.1% 99.6%
316 0.1% 99.5%
317 0.2% 99.5%
318 0.1% 99.3%
319 0.2% 99.2%
320 0.1% 99.0%
321 0.2% 98.9%
322 0.1% 98.7%
323 0.2% 98.6%
324 0.1% 98%
325 0.1% 98%
326 0.2% 98%
327 0.1% 98%
328 0.2% 98%
329 0.5% 98%
330 0.4% 97%
331 0.5% 97%
332 0.3% 96%
333 1.3% 96%
334 1.2% 95%
335 0.6% 93%
336 0.5% 93%
337 0.8% 92%
338 0.9% 92%
339 1.1% 91%
340 0.9% 90%
341 0.9% 89%
342 1.3% 88%
343 0.5% 87%
344 0.9% 86%
345 2% 85%
346 1.1% 83%
347 2% 82%
348 1.0% 81%
349 1.5% 80%
350 2% 78%
351 3% 76%
352 4% 73%
353 4% 69%
354 3% 65%
355 2% 62%
356 3% 60%
357 3% 57%
358 4% 54%
359 3% 50%
360 3% 47%
361 3% 44%
362 5% 41%
363 2% 36%
364 4% 35%
365 3% 31%
366 3% 28%
367 4% 26%
368 2% 22%
369 1.5% 19%
370 1.5% 18%
371 3% 16%
372 1.2% 13%
373 1.4% 12%
374 0.7% 11%
375 2% 10%
376 0.9% 8%
377 1.4% 7%
378 0.5% 6%
379 1.0% 5%
380 0.3% 4%
381 0.6% 4%
382 0.7% 4%
383 0.4% 3%
384 0.7% 2%
385 0.1% 2%
386 0.2% 2%
387 0.4% 1.4%
388 0.1% 1.0%
389 0.2% 0.9%
390 0.2% 0.7%
391 0.2% 0.5%
392 0.1% 0.3%
393 0% 0.3%
394 0% 0.2%
395 0% 0.2%
396 0.1% 0.2%
397 0% 0.1%
398 0% 0.1%
399 0% 0.1%
400 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
297 0% 100%
298 0% 99.9%
299 0% 99.9%
300 0% 99.9%
301 0% 99.9%
302 0% 99.9%
303 0% 99.8%
304 0% 99.8%
305 0% 99.8%
306 0.1% 99.7%
307 0.1% 99.7%
308 0% 99.6%
309 0.1% 99.5%
310 0.2% 99.4%
311 0.2% 99.3%
312 0.3% 99.0%
313 0.1% 98.8%
314 0.3% 98.6%
315 0.4% 98%
316 0.8% 98%
317 0.4% 97%
318 0.5% 97%
319 1.4% 96%
320 0.8% 95%
321 1.0% 94%
322 1.4% 93%
323 3% 92%
324 2% 89%
325 3% 87%
326 5% 84%
327 6% 79%
328 4% 73%
329 5% 69%
330 4% 64%
331 5% 60%
332 6% 55%
333 4% 49%
334 5% 45%
335 4% 40%
336 6% 35%
337 4% 30%
338 3% 26%
339 3% 23%
340 2% 20%
341 1.5% 18%
342 3% 16%
343 1.1% 14%
344 2% 13%
345 2% 10%
346 0.8% 9%
347 1.4% 8%
348 0.4% 6%
349 1.2% 6%
350 0.7% 5%
351 0.8% 4%
352 0.5% 3%
353 0.6% 3%
354 0.4% 2%
355 0.3% 2%
356 0.2% 1.5%
357 0.2% 1.2%
358 0.2% 1.1%
359 0.2% 0.9%
360 0.1% 0.6%
361 0.1% 0.5%
362 0.1% 0.4%
363 0.1% 0.4%
364 0.1% 0.3%
365 0% 0.1%
366 0% 0.1%
367 0% 0.1%
368 0% 0%

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
277 0% 100%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.9%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0% 99.8%
286 0% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.8%
288 0.1% 99.7%
289 0% 99.6%
290 0% 99.6%
291 0.2% 99.5%
292 0.2% 99.3%
293 0.3% 99.1%
294 0.2% 98.8%
295 0.1% 98.7%
296 0.5% 98.6%
297 0.3% 98%
298 0.4% 98%
299 0.7% 98%
300 0.5% 97%
301 0.7% 96%
302 1.0% 96%
303 1.3% 95%
304 0.8% 93%
305 1.3% 93%
306 2% 91%
307 2% 89%
308 3% 88%
309 3% 85%
310 6% 82%
311 8% 77%
312 4% 69%
313 3% 65%
314 3% 61%
315 4% 58%
316 4% 54%
317 3% 50%
318 2% 47%
319 6% 45%
320 7% 38%
321 5% 31%
322 2% 26%
323 3% 24%
324 3% 21%
325 2% 19%
326 2% 16%
327 2% 15%
328 2% 13%
329 1.2% 11%
330 0.7% 10%
331 0.9% 9%
332 0.6% 8%
333 0.8% 7%
334 1.0% 7%
335 1.5% 6%
336 0.8% 4%
337 0.4% 3%
338 0.6% 3%
339 0.4% 2%
340 0.5% 2%
341 0.1% 1.4%
342 0.2% 1.2%
343 0.1% 1.0%
344 0.2% 0.9%
345 0.2% 0.7%
346 0.1% 0.5%
347 0% 0.4%
348 0.1% 0.3%
349 0.1% 0.2%
350 0.1% 0.2%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0%

Conservative Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
275 0% 100%
276 0% 99.9%
277 0% 99.9%
278 0% 99.9%
279 0% 99.9%
280 0% 99.9%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0% 99.8%
283 0% 99.8%
284 0% 99.8%
285 0.1% 99.8%
286 0.1% 99.7%
287 0.1% 99.6%
288 0% 99.6%
289 0.1% 99.5%
290 0.3% 99.4%
291 0.2% 99.1%
292 0.2% 98.8%
293 0.1% 98.7%
294 0.1% 98.6%
295 0.3% 98.5%
296 1.1% 98%
297 0.4% 97%
298 0.4% 97%
299 0.9% 96%
300 0.7% 95%
301 1.0% 95%
302 1.2% 94%
303 0.9% 93%
304 1.2% 92%
305 3% 90%
306 3% 88%
307 3% 85%
308 6% 81%
309 5% 76%
310 5% 70%
311 4% 65%
312 3% 62%
313 4% 59%
314 4% 55%
315 3% 50%
316 4% 47%
317 6% 42%
318 7% 37%
319 3% 30%
320 3% 26%
321 1.4% 23%
322 3% 22%
323 3% 19%
324 2% 15%
325 1.2% 13%
326 0.8% 12%
327 2% 11%
328 1.2% 10%
329 1.0% 9%
330 0.8% 8%
331 0.9% 7%
332 1.3% 6%
333 0.9% 5%
334 0.5% 4%
335 0.5% 3%
336 0.6% 3%
337 0.5% 2%
338 0.4% 2%
339 0.2% 1.4%
340 0.3% 1.2%
341 0.1% 0.9%
342 0.2% 0.8%
343 0.2% 0.6%
344 0.1% 0.5%
345 0.1% 0.4%
346 0.1% 0.3%
347 0.1% 0.2%
348 0% 0.1%
349 0% 0.1%
350 0% 0.1%
351 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
282 0% 100%
283 0% 99.9%
284 0% 99.9%
285 0.1% 99.9%
286 0.1% 99.8%
287 0.1% 99.7%
288 0.1% 99.6%
289 0.1% 99.5%
290 0.2% 99.4%
291 0.1% 99.2%
292 0.3% 99.1%
293 0.2% 98.8%
294 0.4% 98.6%
295 0.5% 98%
296 0.6% 98%
297 0.5% 97%
298 0.4% 97%
299 0.9% 96%
300 1.3% 95%
301 0.8% 94%
302 0.8% 93%
303 1.0% 92%
304 1.2% 91%
305 2% 90%
306 0.8% 89%
307 1.2% 88%
308 2% 87%
309 3% 85%
310 3% 81%
311 1.4% 78%
312 3% 77%
313 3% 74%
314 7% 70%
315 6% 63%
316 4% 58%
317 3% 53%
318 4% 50%
319 4% 45%
320 3% 41%
321 4% 38%
322 5% 35%
323 5% 30%
324 6% 24%
325 3% 19%
326 3% 15%
327 3% 12%
328 1.1% 10%
329 0.9% 8%
330 1.2% 7%
331 1.0% 6%
332 0.7% 5%
333 0.9% 5%
334 0.4% 4%
335 0.4% 3%
336 1.1% 3%
337 0.3% 2%
338 0.1% 1.5%
339 0.1% 1.4%
340 0.2% 1.3%
341 0.2% 1.2%
342 0.3% 0.9%
343 0.1% 0.6%
344 0% 0.5%
345 0.1% 0.4%
346 0.1% 0.4%
347 0.1% 0.3%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.2%
350 0% 0.2%
351 0% 0.2%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0.1%
357 0% 0.1%
358 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
280 0% 100%
281 0% 99.9%
282 0.1% 99.9%
283 0.1% 99.8%
284 0.1% 99.8%
285 0% 99.7%
286 0.1% 99.6%
287 0.2% 99.5%
288 0.2% 99.3%
289 0.1% 99.1%
290 0.2% 99.0%
291 0.1% 98.8%
292 0.5% 98.6%
293 0.4% 98%
294 0.6% 98%
295 0.4% 97%
296 0.8% 97%
297 2% 96%
298 1.0% 94%
299 0.7% 93%
300 0.6% 93%
301 0.9% 92%
302 0.7% 91%
303 1.2% 90%
304 2% 89%
305 2% 87%
306 2% 85%
307 2% 84%
308 3% 81%
309 3% 79%
310 2% 76%
311 5% 74%
312 7% 69%
313 6% 62%
314 2% 55%
315 3% 53%
316 4% 50%
317 4% 46%
318 3% 42%
319 3% 38%
320 4% 35%
321 8% 31%
322 6% 23%
323 3% 18%
324 3% 15%
325 2% 12%
326 2% 11%
327 1.3% 9%
328 0.8% 7%
329 1.3% 7%
330 1.0% 5%
331 0.7% 4%
332 0.5% 4%
333 0.7% 3%
334 0.4% 2%
335 0.3% 2%
336 0.5% 2%
337 0.1% 1.4%
338 0.2% 1.3%
339 0.3% 1.2%
340 0.2% 0.9%
341 0.2% 0.7%
342 0% 0.5%
343 0% 0.4%
344 0.1% 0.4%
345 0.1% 0.3%
346 0% 0.2%
347 0% 0.2%
348 0% 0.2%
349 0% 0.2%
350 0% 0.2%
351 0% 0.1%
352 0% 0.1%
353 0% 0.1%
354 0% 0.1%
355 0% 0.1%
356 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
265 0% 100%
266 0% 99.9%
267 0.1% 99.9%
268 0.1% 99.8%
269 0.1% 99.7%
270 0.1% 99.6%
271 0.1% 99.6%
272 0.1% 99.5%
273 0.2% 99.4%
274 0.2% 99.1%
275 0.2% 98.9%
276 0.2% 98.8%
277 0.3% 98.5%
278 0.4% 98%
279 0.6% 98%
280 0.5% 97%
281 0.8% 97%
282 0.7% 96%
283 1.2% 95%
284 0.5% 94%
285 1.3% 93%
286 0.8% 92%
287 2% 91%
288 2% 90%
289 1.1% 87%
290 3% 86%
291 1.5% 84%
292 2% 82%
293 3% 80%
294 3% 77%
295 4% 74%
296 6% 70%
297 4% 65%
298 5% 60%
299 4% 55%
300 6% 51%
301 5% 45%
302 4% 40%
303 5% 36%
304 4% 31%
305 6% 27%
306 5% 21%
307 3% 16%
308 2% 13%
309 3% 11%
310 1.4% 8%
311 1.0% 7%
312 0.8% 6%
313 1.4% 5%
314 0.5% 4%
315 0.4% 3%
316 0.8% 3%
317 0.4% 2%
318 0.3% 2%
319 0.1% 1.4%
320 0.3% 1.2%
321 0.2% 1.0%
322 0.2% 0.7%
323 0.1% 0.6%
324 0% 0.5%
325 0.1% 0.4%
326 0.1% 0.3%
327 0% 0.3%
328 0% 0.2%
329 0% 0.2%
330 0% 0.2%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0.1%
336 0% 0%

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
263 0% 100%
264 0% 99.9%
265 0% 99.9%
266 0.1% 99.8%
267 0.1% 99.7%
268 0.1% 99.6%
269 0.2% 99.6%
270 0.1% 99.4%
271 0.2% 99.2%
272 0.1% 99.0%
273 0.2% 98.9%
274 0.3% 98.7%
275 0.4% 98%
276 0.3% 98%
277 0.4% 98%
278 0.8% 97%
279 0.7% 96%
280 0.8% 96%
281 0.5% 95%
282 1.3% 94%
283 1.2% 93%
284 1.1% 92%
285 0.9% 91%
286 2% 90%
287 2% 88%
288 2% 85%
289 2% 83%
290 2% 82%
291 2% 79%
292 4% 77%
293 6% 73%
294 4% 68%
295 4% 63%
296 4% 59%
297 5% 56%
298 6% 51%
299 5% 45%
300 4% 40%
301 5% 36%
302 5% 31%
303 6% 26%
304 4% 20%
305 4% 16%
306 2% 12%
307 2% 11%
308 2% 9%
309 1.2% 7%
310 1.3% 6%
311 0.7% 5%
312 0.7% 4%
313 0.8% 3%
314 0.3% 3%
315 0.4% 2%
316 0.5% 2%
317 0.2% 1.4%
318 0.2% 1.2%
319 0.2% 1.0%
320 0.2% 0.8%
321 0.1% 0.6%
322 0.1% 0.5%
323 0% 0.4%
324 0.1% 0.3%
325 0.1% 0.3%
326 0.1% 0.2%
327 0% 0.2%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0.1%
332 0% 0.1%
333 0% 0.1%
334 0% 0.1%
335 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
233 0% 100%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.9%
237 0% 99.8%
238 0% 99.8%
239 0% 99.8%
240 0.1% 99.7%
241 0.2% 99.7%
242 0.2% 99.5%
243 0.2% 99.3%
244 0.1% 99.1%
245 0.4% 99.0%
246 0.2% 98.6%
247 0.1% 98%
248 0.7% 98%
249 0.4% 98%
250 0.7% 97%
251 0.6% 96%
252 0.3% 96%
253 1.0% 96%
254 0.5% 95%
255 1.4% 94%
256 0.9% 93%
257 2% 92%
258 0.7% 90%
259 1.4% 89%
260 1.2% 88%
261 3% 87%
262 1.4% 84%
263 2% 82%
264 2% 81%
265 4% 78%
266 3% 74%
267 3% 71%
268 4% 69%
269 2% 65%
270 5% 64%
271 3% 59%
272 3% 56%
273 3% 53%
274 4% 50%
275 3% 46%
276 3% 43%
277 2% 40%
278 3% 38%
279 4% 35%
280 4% 31%
281 3% 27%
282 2% 24%
283 1.5% 22%
284 1.1% 20%
285 2% 19%
286 1.0% 18%
287 2% 17%
288 1.0% 15%
289 0.5% 14%
290 1.2% 13%
291 0.9% 12%
292 0.9% 11%
293 1.1% 10%
294 0.9% 9%
295 0.8% 8%
296 0.5% 8%
297 0.6% 7%
298 1.2% 7%
299 1.3% 5%
300 0.3% 4%
301 0.5% 4%
302 0.4% 3%
303 0.5% 3%
304 0.2% 2%
305 0.1% 2%
306 0.2% 2%
307 0.1% 2%
308 0.1% 2%
309 0.2% 2%
310 0.1% 1.4%
311 0.2% 1.3%
312 0.1% 1.1%
313 0.2% 1.0%
314 0.1% 0.8%
315 0.2% 0.7%
316 0.1% 0.5%
317 0.1% 0.5%
318 0% 0.4%
319 0.1% 0.4%
320 0% 0.3%
321 0.1% 0.3%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0.1% 0.2%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0.1%
330 0% 0.1%
331 0% 0%

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
230 0% 100%
231 0% 99.9%
232 0% 99.9%
233 0% 99.9%
234 0% 99.9%
235 0% 99.9%
236 0.1% 99.8%
237 0.1% 99.8%
238 0.2% 99.7%
239 0.1% 99.5%
240 0.1% 99.5%
241 0.1% 99.3%
242 0.5% 99.2%
243 0.2% 98.8%
244 0.2% 98.6%
245 0.3% 98%
246 0.5% 98%
247 0.5% 98%
248 0.9% 97%
249 0.4% 96%
250 0.6% 96%
251 0.8% 95%
252 0.7% 94%
253 0.8% 94%
254 2% 93%
255 0.9% 91%
256 1.3% 90%
257 1.0% 89%
258 3% 88%
259 2% 85%
260 1.2% 83%
261 2% 82%
262 1.0% 79%
263 3% 78%
264 4% 75%
265 3% 71%
266 2% 68%
267 6% 66%
268 2% 60%
269 2% 58%
270 3% 56%
271 3% 53%
272 3% 50%
273 3% 47%
274 4% 45%
275 3% 40%
276 2% 37%
277 5% 35%
278 4% 30%
279 3% 26%
280 2% 23%
281 1.0% 21%
282 0.8% 20%
283 0.8% 19%
284 2% 19%
285 1.5% 16%
286 0.8% 15%
287 0.5% 14%
288 0.8% 13%
289 1.2% 13%
290 1.2% 11%
291 0.9% 10%
292 1.0% 9%
293 0.7% 8%
294 0.5% 8%
295 1.3% 7%
296 0.6% 6%
297 0.3% 5%
298 1.2% 5%
299 0.7% 4%
300 0.3% 3%
301 0.3% 3%
302 0.3% 2%
303 0.2% 2%
304 0.1% 2%
305 0.2% 2%
306 0.1% 2%
307 0.1% 2%
308 0.2% 1.5%
309 0.1% 1.3%
310 0.1% 1.2%
311 0.1% 1.1%
312 0.2% 0.9%
313 0.1% 0.7%
314 0.2% 0.6%
315 0.1% 0.4%
316 0% 0.4%
317 0.1% 0.4%
318 0.1% 0.3%
319 0% 0.2%
320 0.1% 0.2%
321 0% 0.2%
322 0% 0.2%
323 0% 0.1%
324 0% 0.1%
325 0% 0.1%
326 0% 0.1%
327 0% 0.1%
328 0% 0.1%
329 0% 0%

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
221 0.1% 100%
222 0.1% 99.9%
223 0.1% 99.9%
224 0% 99.8%
225 0.1% 99.7%
226 0.1% 99.6%
227 0.1% 99.5%
228 0.1% 99.3%
229 0.1% 99.2%
230 0.3% 99.1%
231 0.2% 98.9%
232 0.2% 98.6%
233 0.5% 98%
234 0.9% 98%
235 0.4% 97%
236 0.5% 96%
237 0.4% 96%
238 1.3% 96%
239 2% 94%
240 1.5% 93%
241 1.2% 91%
242 0.6% 90%
243 1.0% 89%
244 1.0% 88%
245 3% 87%
246 4% 85%
247 1.0% 81%
248 2% 80%
249 2% 78%
250 3% 76%
251 7% 73%
252 4% 66%
253 3% 63%
254 7% 59%
255 6% 53%
256 5% 47%
257 2% 43%
258 2% 40%
259 4% 38%
260 4% 33%
261 5% 29%
262 2% 24%
263 3% 22%
264 2% 19%
265 1.1% 17%
266 1.1% 16%
267 0.7% 15%
268 1.2% 14%
269 1.1% 13%
270 0.9% 12%
271 0.6% 11%
272 0.5% 11%
273 0.4% 10%
274 1.1% 10%
275 2% 9%
276 2% 7%
277 0.4% 5%
278 0.9% 5%
279 0.4% 4%
280 0.5% 3%
281 0.5% 3%
282 0.1% 2%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.1% 2%
286 0.1% 2%
287 0.2% 2%
288 0.2% 1.4%
289 0.1% 1.2%
290 0.1% 1.1%
291 0.1% 1.0%
292 0.1% 0.9%
293 0.3% 0.8%
294 0.1% 0.5%
295 0% 0.4%
296 0.1% 0.3%
297 0% 0.3%
298 0% 0.3%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.2%
301 0.1% 0.2%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0.1%
307 0% 0%

Labour Party

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated
218 0% 100%
219 0% 99.9%
220 0.1% 99.9%
221 0.1% 99.8%
222 0.1% 99.8%
223 0.1% 99.7%
224 0.1% 99.6%
225 0.2% 99.4%
226 0.1% 99.3%
227 0.2% 99.2%
228 0.2% 98.9%
229 0.2% 98.8%
230 0.5% 98.5%
231 0.4% 98%
232 0.6% 98%
233 0.4% 97%
234 0.8% 97%
235 1.0% 96%
236 0.8% 95%
237 1.1% 94%
238 0.8% 93%
239 2% 92%
240 1.3% 90%
241 1.5% 89%
242 2% 88%
243 1.1% 85%
244 4% 84%
245 0.8% 81%
246 3% 80%
247 3% 77%
248 5% 75%
249 3% 69%
250 3% 66%
251 4% 63%
252 5% 59%
253 6% 54%
254 3% 48%
255 4% 45%
256 3% 41%
257 3% 37%
258 6% 34%
259 4% 28%
260 3% 25%
261 3% 22%
262 2% 19%
263 1.4% 17%
264 0.8% 16%
265 0.7% 15%
266 0.8% 14%
267 0.8% 13%
268 0.9% 12%
269 0.7% 12%
270 0.9% 11%
271 1.0% 10%
272 1.3% 9%
273 1.4% 8%
274 0.7% 6%
275 0.5% 6%
276 0.7% 5%
277 0.7% 4%
278 1.2% 4%
279 0.2% 3%
280 0.2% 2%
281 0.1% 2%
282 0.1% 2%
283 0.2% 2%
284 0.2% 2%
285 0.2% 2%
286 0.1% 1.4%
287 0.1% 1.3%
288 0.1% 1.2%
289 0.1% 1.1%
290 0.3% 1.0%
291 0.1% 0.7%
292 0.2% 0.6%
293 0.1% 0.4%
294 0% 0.3%
295 0% 0.3%
296 0% 0.3%
297 0% 0.2%
298 0.1% 0.2%
299 0% 0.2%
300 0% 0.1%
301 0% 0.1%
302 0% 0.1%
303 0% 0.1%
304 0% 0.1%
305 0% 0.1%
306 0% 0%

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations