Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 11–17 September 2024
Areas included: Brussels, Wallonia
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) | 0.0% | 26.3% | 24.7–27.9% | 24.2–28.4% | 23.9–28.8% | 23.1–29.6% |
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.6–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.2% |
| Les Engagés (RE) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 18.9–21.8% | 18.5–22.3% | 18.1–22.7% | 17.5–23.4% |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.4% | 12.4–15.7% | 12.1–16.1% | 11.6–16.8% |
| Ecolo (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.0% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.4–10.6% | 7.0–11.2% |
| DéFI (*) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Les Engagés (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ecolo (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DéFI (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mouvement Réformateur (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 43% | 43% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 55% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) – Les Engagés (RE) | 0 | 4 | 41% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Mouvement Réformateur (RE) – Les Engagés (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 59% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 41% | 41% | Majority |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.8% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1207
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.69%