Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 15 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | PS | MR | ECOLO | LE | PP | PTB | DÉFI | DLB | DROITE | RWF | WDA | PIRATE | FW | ISLAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 29.3% 3 |
27.1% 3 |
11.7% 1 |
11.4% 1 |
6.0% 0 |
5.5% 0 |
3.4% 0 |
3.0% 0 |
1.6% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 22–27% 2–3 |
19–24% 2–3 |
12–16% 1–2 |
11–15% 1 |
N/A N/A |
14–18% 1–2 |
4–6% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 8–18 April 2024 | Kantar La Libre Belgique and RTBf |
22–27% 2–3 |
19–24% 2–3 |
12–16% 1–2 |
11–15% 1 |
N/A N/A |
14–18% 1–2 |
4–6% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 29.3% 3 |
27.1% 3 |
11.7% 1 |
11.4% 1 |
6.0% 0 |
5.5% 0 |
3.4% 0 |
3.0% 0 |
1.6% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- PS: Parti Socialiste (S&D)
- MR: Mouvement Réformateur (RE)
- ECOLO: Ecolo (Greens/EFA)
- LE: Les Engagés (EPP)
- PP: Parti Populaire (NI)
- PTB: Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
- DÉFI: DéFI (*)
- DLB: Debout les Belges (*)
- DROITE: La Droite (*)
- RWF: R.W.F. (*)
- WDA: Wallonie d’Abord (*)
- PIRATE: PIRATE (Greens/EFA)
- FW: FW (*)
- ISLAM: ISLAM (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 29.3% | 24.2% | 22.6–25.8% | 22.2–26.2% | 21.8–26.6% | 21.1–27.4% |
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) | 27.1% | 21.6% | 20.1–23.2% | 19.7–23.6% | 19.4–24.0% | 18.7–24.8% |
| Ecolo (Greens/EFA) | 11.7% | 14.4% | 13.1–15.7% | 12.7–16.1% | 12.4–16.4% | 11.9–17.1% |
| Les Engagés (EPP) | 11.4% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.0% | 11.2–14.4% | 11.0–14.7% | 10.4–15.4% |
| Parti Populaire (NI) | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 5.5% | 16.3% | 14.9–17.7% | 14.6–18.1% | 14.3–18.4% | 13.7–19.2% |
| DéFI (*) | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.8–6.2% | 3.5–6.7% |
| Debout les Belges (*) | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| La Droite (*) | 1.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| R.W.F. (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wallonie d’Abord (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| PIRATE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| FW (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ISLAM (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Parti Socialiste (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 8% | 98% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 22% | 90% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 32% | 69% | Median |
| 24.5–25.5% | 24% | 37% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Mouvement Réformateur (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 14% | 96% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 29% | 82% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 22.5–23.5% | 16% | 22% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ecolo (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 12.5–13.5% | 18% | 97% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 37% | 79% | Median |
| 14.5–15.5% | 30% | 42% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 11% | 13% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 31% | 90% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 38% | 59% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 18% | 21% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 19% | 95% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 36% | 76% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 28% | 40% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 10% | 12% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
DéFI (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3.5–4.5% | 27% | 99.2% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 56% | 72% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 15% | 16% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Ecolo (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Les Engagés (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Parti Populaire (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| DéFI (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout les Belges (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| La Droite (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| R.W.F. (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wallonie d’Abord (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| PIRATE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| FW (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| ISLAM (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Parti Socialiste (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Socialiste (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 41% | 41% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Mouvement Réformateur (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mouvement Réformateur (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ecolo (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Engagés (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Populaire (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti Populaire (NI) page.
Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
DéFI (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DéFI (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout les Belges (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout les Belges (*) page.
La Droite (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La Droite (*) page.
R.W.F. (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the R.W.F. (*) page.
Wallonie d’Abord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wallonie d’Abord (*) page.
PIRATE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PIRATE (Greens/EFA) page.
FW (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the FW (*) page.
ISLAM (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ISLAM (*) page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouvement Réformateur (RE) | 3 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Parti Socialiste (S&D) | 3 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Ecolo (Greens/EFA) – PIRATE (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Les Engagés (EPP) | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Mouvement Réformateur (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Parti Socialiste (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 41% | 41% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Ecolo (Greens/EFA) – PIRATE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Parti du Travail de Belgique (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 48% | 100% | |
| 2 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Les Engagés (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.13%