Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 2–5 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 45.9% 43.8–47.9% 43.3–48.5% 42.8–49.0% 41.8–49.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.0% 24.6–32.0%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Χρυσή Αυγή 2.9% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 174 167–180 166–182 164–184 161–188
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 76 71–82 69–83 68–85 66–87
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 20 17–23 16–24 16–25 15–27
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 11–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–14
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Χρυσή Αυγή 0 0 0 0 0 0–8
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.3% 99.7%  
162 0.4% 99.4%  
163 0.9% 99.1%  
164 1.2% 98%  
165 2% 97%  
166 2% 95%  
167 5% 93%  
168 3% 88%  
169 3% 85%  
170 7% 81%  
171 9% 75%  
172 6% 65%  
173 7% 59%  
174 8% 52% Median
175 7% 45%  
176 8% 37%  
177 8% 29%  
178 6% 21%  
179 4% 15%  
180 3% 11%  
181 2% 8%  
182 0.8% 5%  
183 2% 5%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.9% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.3% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 4% 90%  
72 4% 86%  
73 6% 82%  
74 8% 76%  
75 11% 68%  
76 11% 56% Median
77 12% 45%  
78 7% 33%  
79 5% 26%  
80 6% 21%  
81 4% 16%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 1.4% 5%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.9% 2% Last Result
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 1.2% 99.7%  
16 3% 98%  
17 10% 95%  
18 9% 85%  
19 17% 77%  
20 19% 60% Median
21 14% 41%  
22 12% 27% Last Result
23 8% 15%  
24 4% 7%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.8%  
12 3% 99.1%  
13 9% 96%  
14 17% 87%  
15 14% 70% Last Result
16 20% 57% Median
17 15% 37%  
18 12% 22%  
19 5% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.0% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 0% 73%  
8 10% 73%  
9 24% 63% Median
10 22% 39% Last Result
11 11% 17%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 0% 71%  
8 7% 71%  
9 24% 64% Last Result, Median
10 20% 39%  
11 12% 19%  
12 5% 7%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Χρυσή Αυγή

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.1%  
2 0% 1.1%  
3 0% 1.1%  
4 0% 1.1%  
5 0% 1.1%  
6 0% 1.1%  
7 0% 1.1%  
8 0.6% 1.1%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 193 100% 187–200 186–203 185–205 181–209
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 174 100% 167–180 166–182 164–184 161–188
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 84 0% 76–89 74–91 73–93 71–96
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 76 0% 71–82 69–83 68–85 66–87

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
181 0.3% 99.6%  
182 0.4% 99.3%  
183 0.5% 98.9%  
184 0.9% 98%  
185 2% 98%  
186 2% 95%  
187 6% 93%  
188 3% 87%  
189 3% 84%  
190 6% 81%  
191 10% 75%  
192 7% 65%  
193 9% 58%  
194 6% 48% Median
195 4% 42%  
196 4% 38%  
197 9% 34%  
198 7% 25%  
199 6% 18%  
200 3% 11%  
201 1.2% 9%  
202 1.3% 7%  
203 1.3% 6%  
204 2% 5%  
205 1.3% 3%  
206 0.9% 2%  
207 0.2% 0.9%  
208 0.1% 0.7%  
209 0.2% 0.6%  
210 0.2% 0.5%  
211 0.2% 0.3%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.3% 99.7%  
162 0.4% 99.4%  
163 0.9% 99.1%  
164 1.2% 98%  
165 2% 97%  
166 2% 95%  
167 5% 93%  
168 3% 88%  
169 3% 85%  
170 7% 81%  
171 9% 75%  
172 6% 65%  
173 7% 59%  
174 8% 52% Median
175 7% 45%  
176 8% 37%  
177 8% 29%  
178 6% 21%  
179 4% 15%  
180 3% 11%  
181 2% 8%  
182 0.8% 5%  
183 2% 5%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.9% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.3% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.2% 0.3%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.6%  
72 0.8% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 3% 87%  
78 4% 84%  
79 5% 80%  
80 5% 76%  
81 5% 70%  
82 5% 65%  
83 5% 61%  
84 7% 55%  
85 12% 48% Median
86 11% 36%  
87 10% 25%  
88 5% 15%  
89 2% 10%  
90 2% 8%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.0% 4%  
93 0.7% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 4% 90%  
72 4% 86%  
73 6% 82%  
74 8% 76%  
75 11% 68%  
76 11% 56% Median
77 12% 45%  
78 7% 33%  
79 5% 26%  
80 6% 21%  
81 4% 16%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 1.4% 5%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.9% 2% Last Result
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations