Opinion Poll by Μetron Analysis for Το Βήμα, 16–18 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 46.1% 44.2–47.9% 43.7–48.5% 43.3–48.9% 42.4–49.8%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.8% 25.2–28.5% 24.7–29.0% 24.4–29.4% 23.6–30.2%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.1% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.4–9.2%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.8% 6.0–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.4% 5.1–8.9%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Χρυσή Αυγή 2.9% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 171 166–176 165–177 164–179 161–181
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 16–21 15–21 15–22 13–23
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Ελληνική Λύση 10 10 9–12 8–13 0–13 0–15
Χρυσή Αυγή 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0.1% 100%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.3% 99.7%  
162 0.7% 99.4%  
163 1.1% 98.7%  
164 2% 98%  
165 3% 95%  
166 4% 92%  
167 6% 87%  
168 9% 81%  
169 9% 72%  
170 12% 63%  
171 9% 51% Median
172 10% 42%  
173 8% 32%  
174 8% 24%  
175 5% 16%  
176 4% 11%  
177 3% 8%  
178 2% 5%  
179 1.1% 3%  
180 0.6% 1.4%  
181 0.4% 0.8%  
182 0.2% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 1.1% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 7% 87%  
68 8% 80%  
69 11% 71%  
70 12% 60% Median
71 12% 48%  
72 11% 36%  
73 9% 25%  
74 6% 16%  
75 4% 11%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.0%  
16 8% 96%  
17 14% 88%  
18 19% 74%  
19 20% 55% Median
20 16% 35%  
21 11% 19%  
22 5% 9% Last Result
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 6% 98% Last Result
16 12% 91%  
17 19% 79%  
18 20% 60% Median
19 17% 40%  
20 12% 23%  
21 6% 10%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.9% 1.4%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0.9% 99.7%  
9 5% 98.8% Last Result
10 15% 93%  
11 22% 78%  
12 24% 56% Median
13 18% 32%  
14 9% 14%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.8% 1.1%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 6% 97%  
9 17% 91%  
10 26% 74% Last Result, Median
11 23% 48%  
12 16% 25%  
13 6% 9%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Χρυσή Αυγή

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 190 100% 185–194 183–196 182–197 180–200
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 171 100% 166–176 165–177 164–179 161–181
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 82 0% 77–87 76–88 75–89 73–91
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.2% 99.8%  
180 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
181 0.9% 99.2%  
182 1.3% 98%  
183 3% 97%  
184 3% 94%  
185 6% 91%  
186 6% 85%  
187 9% 79%  
188 9% 70%  
189 9% 61%  
190 13% 52% Median
191 9% 39%  
192 10% 31%  
193 6% 21%  
194 6% 15%  
195 3% 10%  
196 2% 7%  
197 2% 4%  
198 1.0% 2%  
199 0.6% 1.4%  
200 0.3% 0.8%  
201 0.2% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0.1% 100%  
160 0.2% 99.9%  
161 0.3% 99.7%  
162 0.7% 99.4%  
163 1.1% 98.7%  
164 2% 98%  
165 3% 95%  
166 4% 92%  
167 6% 87%  
168 9% 81%  
169 9% 72%  
170 12% 63%  
171 9% 51% Median
172 10% 42%  
173 8% 32%  
174 8% 24%  
175 5% 16%  
176 4% 11%  
177 3% 8%  
178 2% 5%  
179 1.1% 3%  
180 0.6% 1.4%  
181 0.4% 0.8%  
182 0.2% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 99.3%  
75 1.4% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 5% 95%  
78 6% 89%  
79 8% 84%  
80 9% 76%  
81 9% 67%  
82 14% 58% Median
83 9% 44%  
84 12% 35%  
85 7% 23%  
86 5% 16%  
87 5% 11%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 1.1% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 7% 87%  
68 8% 80%  
69 11% 71%  
70 12% 60% Median
71 12% 48%  
72 11% 36%  
73 9% 25%  
74 6% 16%  
75 4% 11%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations