Opinion Poll by Marc for Proto Thema, 29–31 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 47.6% | 45.5–49.6% | 45.0–50.2% | 44.5–50.7% | 43.5–51.6% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 27.5% | 25.8–29.4% | 25.3–29.9% | 24.8–30.4% | 24.0–31.3% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 177 | 170–183 | 168–185 | 167–186 | 164–190 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 69–79 | 67–80 | 66–82 | 63–84 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 18 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 12–20 | 11–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–14 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 2% | 97% | |
| 169 | 3% | 95% | |
| 170 | 3% | 92% | |
| 171 | 5% | 89% | |
| 172 | 7% | 83% | |
| 173 | 4% | 76% | |
| 174 | 6% | 73% | |
| 175 | 6% | 67% | |
| 176 | 8% | 60% | |
| 177 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 178 | 8% | 44% | |
| 179 | 10% | 35% | |
| 180 | 4% | 26% | |
| 181 | 5% | 22% | |
| 182 | 5% | 16% | |
| 183 | 3% | 12% | |
| 184 | 2% | 9% | |
| 185 | 3% | 7% | |
| 186 | 2% | 4% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 90% | |
| 70 | 11% | 83% | |
| 71 | 6% | 72% | |
| 72 | 11% | 66% | |
| 73 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 74 | 7% | 45% | |
| 75 | 6% | 38% | |
| 76 | 9% | 32% | |
| 77 | 5% | 23% | |
| 78 | 5% | 18% | |
| 79 | 5% | 13% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 9% | 96% | |
| 16 | 12% | 87% | |
| 17 | 13% | 75% | |
| 18 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 18% | 44% | |
| 20 | 14% | 25% | |
| 21 | 6% | 12% | |
| 22 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 5% | 96% | |
| 14 | 8% | 91% | |
| 15 | 16% | 83% | Last Result |
| 16 | 24% | 66% | Median |
| 17 | 18% | 43% | |
| 18 | 10% | 24% | |
| 19 | 6% | 14% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 74% | |
| 2 | 0% | 74% | |
| 3 | 0% | 74% | |
| 4 | 0% | 74% | |
| 5 | 0% | 74% | |
| 6 | 0% | 74% | |
| 7 | 0% | 74% | |
| 8 | 12% | 74% | |
| 9 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 39% | Last Result |
| 11 | 11% | 18% | |
| 12 | 4% | 7% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 78% | |
| 2 | 0% | 78% | |
| 3 | 0% | 78% | |
| 4 | 0% | 78% | |
| 5 | 0% | 78% | |
| 6 | 0% | 78% | |
| 7 | 0% | 78% | |
| 8 | 11% | 78% | |
| 9 | 22% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 20% | 44% | |
| 11 | 16% | 25% | |
| 12 | 6% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 8% | |
| 8 | 4% | 8% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 194 | 100% | 188–201 | 186–203 | 185–205 | 182–209 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 177 | 100% | 170–183 | 168–185 | 167–186 | 164–190 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 81 | 0% | 73–88 | 73–90 | 71–90 | 68–93 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 0% | 69–79 | 67–80 | 66–82 | 63–84 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 185 | 2% | 98% | |
| 186 | 2% | 96% | |
| 187 | 2% | 94% | |
| 188 | 4% | 92% | |
| 189 | 4% | 87% | |
| 190 | 4% | 83% | |
| 191 | 8% | 79% | |
| 192 | 5% | 71% | |
| 193 | 6% | 66% | |
| 194 | 11% | 59% | |
| 195 | 5% | 49% | Median |
| 196 | 5% | 44% | |
| 197 | 9% | 39% | |
| 198 | 5% | 30% | |
| 199 | 5% | 24% | |
| 200 | 5% | 19% | |
| 201 | 4% | 14% | |
| 202 | 4% | 10% | |
| 203 | 2% | 6% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 205 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 2% | 97% | |
| 169 | 3% | 95% | |
| 170 | 3% | 92% | |
| 171 | 5% | 89% | |
| 172 | 7% | 83% | |
| 173 | 4% | 76% | |
| 174 | 6% | 73% | |
| 175 | 6% | 67% | |
| 176 | 8% | 60% | |
| 177 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 178 | 8% | 44% | |
| 179 | 10% | 35% | |
| 180 | 4% | 26% | |
| 181 | 5% | 22% | |
| 182 | 5% | 16% | |
| 183 | 3% | 12% | |
| 184 | 2% | 9% | |
| 185 | 3% | 7% | |
| 186 | 2% | 4% | |
| 187 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 190 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 2% | 97% | |
| 73 | 6% | 95% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 75 | 2% | 88% | |
| 76 | 3% | 86% | |
| 77 | 5% | 83% | |
| 78 | 6% | 78% | |
| 79 | 6% | 71% | |
| 80 | 11% | 66% | |
| 81 | 8% | 54% | |
| 82 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 83 | 6% | 39% | |
| 84 | 8% | 33% | |
| 85 | 6% | 25% | |
| 86 | 6% | 20% | |
| 87 | 3% | 14% | |
| 88 | 3% | 11% | |
| 89 | 2% | 8% | |
| 90 | 3% | 5% | |
| 91 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | |
| 69 | 7% | 90% | |
| 70 | 11% | 83% | |
| 71 | 6% | 72% | |
| 72 | 11% | 66% | |
| 73 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 74 | 7% | 45% | |
| 75 | 6% | 38% | |
| 76 | 9% | 32% | |
| 77 | 5% | 23% | |
| 78 | 5% | 18% | |
| 79 | 5% | 13% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Proto Thema
- Fieldwork period: 29–31 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1003
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%