Opinion Poll by Palmos Analysis for GUE–NGL, 11–14 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 40.6% 38.6–42.6% 38.1–43.1% 37.6–43.6% 36.7–44.6%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.4% 25.7–29.3% 25.2–29.8% 24.8–30.3% 24.0–31.2%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Χρυσή Αυγή 2.9% 3.9% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Ένωση Κεντρώων 1.2% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 158 153–166 152–168 150–170 148–172
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 69–80 68–81 67–83 64–85
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 16–21 15–23 14–23 13–25
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 17 14–20 14–21 14–22 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 12 10–14 9–15 9–16 0–17
Χρυσή Αυγή 0 11 9–14 8–14 0–15 0–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ένωση Κεντρώων 0 0 0 0 0 0

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 1.0% 99.5%  
150 1.2% 98%  
151 2% 97% Majority
152 2% 96%  
153 5% 94%  
154 6% 89%  
155 4% 83%  
156 11% 78%  
157 7% 68%  
158 11% 61% Last Result, Median
159 7% 49%  
160 7% 42%  
161 5% 36%  
162 6% 30%  
163 5% 25%  
164 7% 19%  
165 2% 13%  
166 4% 11%  
167 1.3% 7%  
168 2% 6%  
169 0.5% 3%  
170 2% 3%  
171 0.4% 1.2%  
172 0.5% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.4% 99.2%  
66 0.8% 98.9%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 5% 97%  
69 5% 91%  
70 8% 86%  
71 8% 79%  
72 6% 71%  
73 7% 64%  
74 6% 57%  
75 9% 52% Median
76 7% 43%  
77 13% 36%  
78 8% 23%  
79 4% 15%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.1%  
15 7% 97% Last Result
16 9% 90%  
17 13% 81%  
18 21% 68% Median
19 14% 47%  
20 13% 33%  
21 10% 20%  
22 4% 10%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.4% 2%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 0.6% 99.7%  
14 13% 99.0%  
15 13% 86%  
16 14% 74%  
17 13% 59% Median
18 13% 46%  
19 16% 34%  
20 9% 18%  
21 5% 8%  
22 2% 3% Last Result
23 0.8% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 0% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 0% 98.9%  
8 0.4% 98.9%  
9 6% 98%  
10 12% 92% Last Result
11 24% 80%  
12 17% 57% Median
13 18% 40%  
14 14% 22%  
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.1%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Χρυσή Αυγή

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 4% 95%  
9 13% 91%  
10 24% 79%  
11 21% 54% Median
12 14% 33%  
13 9% 20%  
14 7% 10%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 0% 82%  
8 8% 82%  
9 24% 74% Last Result, Median
10 21% 50%  
11 14% 29%  
12 10% 14%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Ένωση Κεντρώων

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ένωση Κεντρώων page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 176 100% 170–183 168–185 167–188 166–190
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 158 97% 153–166 152–168 150–170 148–172
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 83 0% 75–88 73–90 72–91 68–94
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 0% 69–80 68–81 67–83 64–85

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.2% 99.7%  
166 0.4% 99.5%  
167 2% 99.2%  
168 3% 97%  
169 3% 94%  
170 4% 91%  
171 4% 88%  
172 10% 84%  
173 5% 74%  
174 8% 69%  
175 6% 61% Median
176 8% 55%  
177 8% 47%  
178 6% 39%  
179 7% 34%  
180 5% 27% Last Result
181 5% 21%  
182 4% 16%  
183 4% 12%  
184 2% 9%  
185 3% 7%  
186 0.9% 4%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.5% 3%  
189 1.4% 2%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.2% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 1.0% 99.5%  
150 1.2% 98%  
151 2% 97% Majority
152 2% 96%  
153 5% 94%  
154 6% 89%  
155 4% 83%  
156 11% 78%  
157 7% 68%  
158 11% 61% Last Result, Median
159 7% 49%  
160 7% 42%  
161 5% 36%  
162 6% 30%  
163 5% 25%  
164 7% 19%  
165 2% 13%  
166 4% 11%  
167 1.3% 7%  
168 2% 6%  
169 0.5% 3%  
170 2% 3%  
171 0.4% 1.2%  
172 0.5% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 0.2% 99.3%  
71 0.3% 99.2%  
72 3% 98.9%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 2% 90%  
77 3% 87%  
78 5% 85%  
79 7% 80%  
80 9% 73%  
81 6% 65%  
82 7% 58%  
83 7% 51%  
84 3% 44% Median
85 5% 42%  
86 6% 37%  
87 11% 31%  
88 12% 20%  
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 0.2% 2%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.4% 99.2%  
66 0.8% 98.9%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 5% 97%  
69 5% 91%  
70 8% 86%  
71 8% 79%  
72 6% 71%  
73 7% 64%  
74 6% 57%  
75 9% 52% Median
76 7% 43%  
77 13% 36%  
78 8% 23%  
79 4% 15%  
80 4% 10%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.4%  
85 0.4% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations