Opinion Poll by MRB for Star, 27 November–5 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 41.5% | 40.1–42.9% | 39.7–43.3% | 39.4–43.7% | 38.7–44.4% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 27.6% | 26.3–28.9% | 26.0–29.3% | 25.7–29.6% | 25.1–30.2% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.5% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2–5.5% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.7–6.2% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 160 | 156–165 | 154–166 | 153–167 | 152–170 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 66–81 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–16 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 8 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 3% | 97% | |
| 155 | 4% | 94% | |
| 156 | 6% | 91% | |
| 157 | 8% | 85% | |
| 158 | 10% | 77% | Last Result |
| 159 | 10% | 67% | |
| 160 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 161 | 9% | 45% | |
| 162 | 10% | 36% | |
| 163 | 7% | 26% | |
| 164 | 6% | 19% | |
| 165 | 5% | 12% | |
| 166 | 3% | 7% | |
| 167 | 2% | 4% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | |
| 69 | 5% | 95% | |
| 70 | 7% | 90% | |
| 71 | 10% | 83% | |
| 72 | 15% | 73% | |
| 73 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 49% | |
| 75 | 10% | 36% | |
| 76 | 11% | 26% | |
| 77 | 8% | 15% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 11% | 94% | |
| 22 | 17% | 83% | Last Result |
| 23 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 24 | 21% | 43% | |
| 25 | 13% | 23% | |
| 26 | 6% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 16% | 93% | Last Result |
| 16 | 25% | 77% | |
| 17 | 27% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 16% | 25% | |
| 19 | 6% | 9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 24% | 85% | |
| 13 | 31% | 61% | Median |
| 14 | 19% | 30% | |
| 15 | 8% | 11% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 0% | 94% | |
| 8 | 10% | 94% | |
| 9 | 30% | 85% | Last Result |
| 10 | 30% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 24% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 51% | |
| 2 | 0% | 51% | |
| 3 | 0% | 51% | |
| 4 | 0% | 51% | |
| 5 | 0% | 51% | |
| 6 | 0% | 51% | |
| 7 | 0% | 51% | |
| 8 | 22% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 29% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 183 | 100% | 178–189 | 177–190 | 176–191 | 174–194 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 160 | 99.8% | 156–165 | 154–166 | 153–167 | 152–170 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 83 | 0% | 78–87 | 77–88 | 75–89 | 72–91 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 0% | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 66–81 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 177 | 4% | 97% | |
| 178 | 4% | 94% | |
| 179 | 6% | 90% | |
| 180 | 7% | 84% | Last Result |
| 181 | 10% | 77% | |
| 182 | 8% | 67% | |
| 183 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 184 | 8% | 47% | |
| 185 | 8% | 39% | |
| 186 | 9% | 31% | |
| 187 | 7% | 22% | |
| 188 | 5% | 15% | |
| 189 | 4% | 11% | |
| 190 | 3% | 6% | |
| 191 | 2% | 4% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 154 | 3% | 97% | |
| 155 | 4% | 94% | |
| 156 | 6% | 91% | |
| 157 | 8% | 85% | |
| 158 | 10% | 77% | Last Result |
| 159 | 10% | 67% | |
| 160 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 161 | 9% | 45% | |
| 162 | 10% | 36% | |
| 163 | 7% | 26% | |
| 164 | 6% | 19% | |
| 165 | 5% | 12% | |
| 166 | 3% | 7% | |
| 167 | 2% | 4% | |
| 168 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 4% | 93% | |
| 79 | 6% | 89% | |
| 80 | 9% | 83% | |
| 81 | 10% | 74% | |
| 82 | 11% | 63% | |
| 83 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 43% | |
| 85 | 11% | 32% | |
| 86 | 7% | 21% | |
| 87 | 7% | 13% | |
| 88 | 3% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | |
| 69 | 5% | 95% | |
| 70 | 7% | 90% | |
| 71 | 10% | 83% | |
| 72 | 15% | 73% | |
| 73 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 49% | |
| 75 | 10% | 36% | |
| 76 | 11% | 26% | |
| 77 | 8% | 15% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MRB
- Commissioner(s): Star
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–5 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.52%