Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for Το Βήμα, 20–22 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 45.2% 43.4–47.1% 42.9–47.6% 42.4–48.1% 41.5–48.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.8% 25.2–28.5% 24.7–28.9% 24.3–29.4% 23.6–30.2%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.1% 6.2–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.7% 5.3–9.2%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.1% 5.3–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–8.1%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.8% 5.0–6.8% 4.8–7.1% 4.6–7.3% 4.3–7.8%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 167 163–172 161–174 160–175 158–177
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 71 65–73 64–74 63–75 62–79
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 19 16–21 16–22 15–22 14–24
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 16 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Ελληνική Λύση 10 15 13–18 12–18 12–19 11–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
159 0.7% 99.3%  
160 1.3% 98.6%  
161 2% 97%  
162 4% 95%  
163 5% 91%  
164 7% 86%  
165 9% 78%  
166 10% 69%  
167 11% 59% Median
168 11% 47%  
169 10% 37%  
170 8% 27%  
171 6% 19%  
172 5% 13%  
173 3% 8%  
174 2% 5%  
175 1.3% 3%  
176 0.8% 2%  
177 0.5% 0.8%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.1%  
64 6% 96%  
65 8% 91%  
66 6% 83%  
67 3% 77%  
68 1.4% 74%  
69 3% 72%  
70 9% 69%  
71 19% 60% Median
72 21% 41%  
73 13% 20%  
74 5% 8%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.2% 2%  
77 0.2% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 1.2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.8%  
15 4% 98.8%  
16 9% 95%  
17 16% 86%  
18 20% 70%  
19 20% 50% Median
20 14% 30%  
21 9% 16%  
22 5% 7% Last Result
23 2% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.7%  
13 6% 98%  
14 13% 92%  
15 21% 79% Last Result
16 21% 58% Median
17 19% 37%  
18 10% 19%  
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100% Last Result
11 0.9% 99.9%  
12 4% 99.0%  
13 11% 95%  
14 20% 84%  
15 23% 64% Median
16 18% 41%  
17 13% 24%  
18 7% 11%  
19 3% 4%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
10 5% 98.7%  
11 14% 94%  
12 21% 80%  
13 25% 59% Median
14 18% 34%  
15 10% 16%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 186 100% 181–191 180–192 179–193 177–196
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 167 100% 163–172 161–174 160–175 158–177
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 83 0% 78–87 77–88 75–89 74–92
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 71 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 62–79

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.3% 99.8%  
177 0.5% 99.6%  
178 0.9% 99.0%  
179 2% 98%  
180 3% 96% Last Result
181 5% 93%  
182 6% 89%  
183 8% 83%  
184 11% 75%  
185 11% 64%  
186 11% 54% Median
187 10% 43%  
188 9% 33%  
189 7% 24%  
190 6% 16%  
191 4% 11%  
192 3% 7%  
193 2% 4%  
194 1.2% 2%  
195 0.6% 1.1%  
196 0.3% 0.5%  
197 0.2% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0.1% 100%  
157 0.2% 99.9%  
158 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
159 0.7% 99.3%  
160 1.3% 98.6%  
161 2% 97%  
162 4% 95%  
163 5% 91%  
164 7% 86%  
165 9% 78%  
166 10% 69%  
167 11% 59% Median
168 11% 47%  
169 10% 37%  
170 8% 27%  
171 6% 19%  
172 5% 13%  
173 3% 8%  
174 2% 5%  
175 1.3% 3%  
176 0.8% 2%  
177 0.5% 0.8%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.9%  
76 2% 97%  
77 3% 95%  
78 5% 92%  
79 5% 87%  
80 6% 82%  
81 7% 75%  
82 8% 68%  
83 11% 60%  
84 13% 49% Median
85 13% 36%  
86 10% 23%  
87 6% 13%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 3% 99.1%  
64 6% 96%  
65 8% 91%  
66 6% 83%  
67 3% 77%  
68 1.4% 74%  
69 3% 72%  
70 9% 69%  
71 19% 60% Median
72 21% 41%  
73 13% 20%  
74 5% 8%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.2% 2%  
77 0.2% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 1.2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations