Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 2–7 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 43.9% | 41.9–45.9% | 41.3–46.5% | 40.8–47.0% | 39.9–48.0% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 28.1% | 26.3–30.0% | 25.8–30.5% | 25.4–31.0% | 24.6–31.9% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 157–170 | 156–171 | 154–172 | 152–175 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 68–78 | 66–80 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 19 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–25 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 13–21 | 13–23 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 16 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–20 | 11–22 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–11 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 5% | 96% | |
| 157 | 4% | 91% | |
| 158 | 3% | 88% | Last Result |
| 159 | 5% | 85% | |
| 160 | 2% | 80% | |
| 161 | 6% | 78% | |
| 162 | 11% | 72% | |
| 163 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 49% | |
| 165 | 5% | 38% | |
| 166 | 5% | 33% | |
| 167 | 9% | 28% | |
| 168 | 4% | 19% | |
| 169 | 3% | 15% | |
| 170 | 6% | 12% | |
| 171 | 2% | 6% | |
| 172 | 2% | 4% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 94% | |
| 68 | 5% | 90% | |
| 69 | 7% | 85% | |
| 70 | 6% | 78% | |
| 71 | 6% | 72% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 46% | |
| 75 | 4% | 38% | |
| 76 | 12% | 34% | |
| 77 | 8% | 22% | |
| 78 | 5% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 6% | 94% | |
| 17 | 15% | 88% | |
| 18 | 16% | 73% | |
| 19 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 38% | |
| 21 | 8% | 22% | |
| 22 | 10% | 14% | Last Result |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 11% | 91% | Last Result |
| 16 | 13% | 80% | |
| 17 | 19% | 67% | Median |
| 18 | 13% | 48% | |
| 19 | 22% | 35% | |
| 20 | 6% | 12% | |
| 21 | 4% | 7% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 7% | 97% | |
| 14 | 10% | 90% | |
| 15 | 15% | 79% | |
| 16 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 42% | |
| 18 | 14% | 25% | |
| 19 | 5% | 12% | |
| 20 | 5% | 7% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 84% | |
| 2 | 0% | 84% | |
| 3 | 0% | 84% | |
| 4 | 0% | 84% | |
| 5 | 0% | 84% | |
| 6 | 0% | 84% | |
| 7 | 0% | 84% | |
| 8 | 16% | 84% | |
| 9 | 18% | 68% | |
| 10 | 28% | 50% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 22% | |
| 12 | 6% | 10% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 30% | |
| 4 | 0% | 30% | |
| 5 | 0% | 30% | |
| 6 | 0% | 30% | |
| 7 | 0% | 30% | |
| 8 | 13% | 30% | |
| 9 | 13% | 17% | Last Result |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 183 | 100% | 176–189 | 174–191 | 173–192 | 170–194 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 99.8% | 157–170 | 156–171 | 154–172 | 152–175 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 76 | 0% | 70–82 | 68–84 | 67–85 | 65–88 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 0% | 68–78 | 66–80 | 65–81 | 63–83 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 173 | 2% | 98% | |
| 174 | 3% | 96% | |
| 175 | 3% | 94% | |
| 176 | 5% | 91% | |
| 177 | 2% | 86% | |
| 178 | 5% | 84% | |
| 179 | 7% | 79% | |
| 180 | 8% | 72% | Last Result |
| 181 | 10% | 64% | |
| 182 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 183 | 6% | 50% | |
| 184 | 14% | 45% | |
| 185 | 6% | 30% | |
| 186 | 3% | 25% | |
| 187 | 3% | 21% | |
| 188 | 3% | 19% | |
| 189 | 8% | 16% | |
| 190 | 3% | 8% | |
| 191 | 2% | 5% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 153 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 5% | 96% | |
| 157 | 4% | 91% | |
| 158 | 3% | 88% | Last Result |
| 159 | 5% | 85% | |
| 160 | 2% | 80% | |
| 161 | 6% | 78% | |
| 162 | 11% | 72% | |
| 163 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 164 | 11% | 49% | |
| 165 | 5% | 38% | |
| 166 | 5% | 33% | |
| 167 | 9% | 28% | |
| 168 | 4% | 19% | |
| 169 | 3% | 15% | |
| 170 | 6% | 12% | |
| 171 | 2% | 6% | |
| 172 | 2% | 4% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 3% | 93% | |
| 70 | 3% | 90% | |
| 71 | 4% | 87% | |
| 72 | 10% | 83% | |
| 73 | 5% | 73% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 68% | |
| 75 | 5% | 60% | |
| 76 | 11% | 55% | |
| 77 | 9% | 44% | |
| 78 | 10% | 35% | |
| 79 | 6% | 25% | |
| 80 | 4% | 18% | |
| 81 | 4% | 15% | |
| 82 | 3% | 11% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 84 | 2% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 4% | 94% | |
| 68 | 5% | 90% | |
| 69 | 7% | 85% | |
| 70 | 6% | 78% | |
| 71 | 6% | 72% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 8% | 46% | |
| 75 | 4% | 38% | |
| 76 | 12% | 34% | |
| 77 | 8% | 22% | |
| 78 | 5% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 9% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Alco
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 2–7 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.52%