Opinion Poll by Κάπα Research for ΕΘΝΟΣ, 15–17 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 49.0% 47.0–50.9% 46.4–51.5% 46.0–52.0% 45.0–52.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.3% 25.6–29.1% 25.1–29.6% 24.7–30.0% 23.9–30.9%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.1%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.5%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Χρυσή Αυγή 2.9% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 180 174–187 172–188 171–190 168–193
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 73 68–78 66–79 65–80 63–83
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 16 14–19 13–19 12–20 11–22
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 14 12–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Ελληνική Λύση 10 10 8–12 0–13 0–13 0–15
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–11 0–12 0–13
Χρυσή Αυγή 0 0 0–8 0–8 0–9 0–10

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.6%  
169 0.6% 99.3%  
170 1.0% 98.7%  
171 1.1% 98%  
172 2% 97%  
173 3% 94%  
174 4% 91%  
175 5% 88%  
176 7% 83%  
177 7% 76%  
178 7% 70%  
179 9% 62%  
180 6% 53% Median
181 10% 47%  
182 6% 36%  
183 5% 30%  
184 6% 25%  
185 4% 19%  
186 5% 15%  
187 3% 10%  
188 2% 7%  
189 1.5% 5%  
190 2% 3%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.3%  
193 0.5% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 94%  
68 5% 90%  
69 7% 85%  
70 10% 78%  
71 10% 69%  
72 9% 59%  
73 11% 50% Median
74 9% 39%  
75 9% 30%  
76 6% 21%  
77 5% 15%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.4%  
13 7% 97%  
14 11% 90%  
15 20% 79%  
16 21% 59% Median
17 17% 38%  
18 10% 21%  
19 7% 12%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.5%  
22 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 7% 97%  
12 14% 90%  
13 21% 76%  
14 21% 55% Median
15 18% 34% Last Result
16 9% 16%  
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 0% 93%  
8 7% 93%  
9 18% 86%  
10 27% 68% Last Result, Median
11 20% 40%  
12 11% 20%  
13 6% 9%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 0% 72%  
8 11% 72%  
9 27% 61% Last Result, Median
10 21% 35%  
11 9% 14%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.0% 1.3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Χρυσή Αυγή

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 0% 11%  
8 6% 11%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 196 100% 190–203 188–205 187–207 184–210
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 180 100% 174–187 172–188 171–190 168–193
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 80 0% 73–85 71–87 70–89 67–91
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 73 0% 68–78 66–79 65–80 63–83

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100% Last Result
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.2% 99.7%  
184 0.4% 99.5%  
185 0.5% 99.1%  
186 1.0% 98.5%  
187 1.3% 98%  
188 3% 96%  
189 3% 94%  
190 4% 91%  
191 5% 87%  
192 6% 82%  
193 8% 76%  
194 8% 68%  
195 7% 61%  
196 9% 53% Median
197 5% 44%  
198 8% 39%  
199 5% 31%  
200 6% 26%  
201 4% 20%  
202 5% 16%  
203 3% 11%  
204 2% 8%  
205 2% 6%  
206 2% 4%  
207 1.1% 3%  
208 0.6% 2%  
209 0.4% 0.9%  
210 0.2% 0.5%  
211 0.1% 0.3%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0.1% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.6%  
169 0.6% 99.3%  
170 1.0% 98.7%  
171 1.1% 98%  
172 2% 97%  
173 3% 94%  
174 4% 91%  
175 5% 88%  
176 7% 83%  
177 7% 76%  
178 7% 70%  
179 9% 62%  
180 6% 53% Median
181 10% 47%  
182 6% 36%  
183 5% 30%  
184 6% 25%  
185 4% 19%  
186 5% 15%  
187 3% 10%  
188 2% 7%  
189 1.5% 5%  
190 2% 3%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.3%  
193 0.5% 0.9%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 99.2%  
69 1.0% 98.5%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 3% 94%  
73 4% 91%  
74 4% 87%  
75 5% 83%  
76 5% 78%  
77 6% 73%  
78 6% 67%  
79 11% 61%  
80 7% 51%  
81 8% 44%  
82 8% 36% Median
83 7% 28%  
84 5% 20%  
85 5% 15%  
86 4% 10%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 94%  
68 5% 90%  
69 7% 85%  
70 10% 78%  
71 10% 69%  
72 9% 59%  
73 11% 50% Median
74 9% 39%  
75 9% 30%  
76 6% 21%  
77 5% 15%  
78 4% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.4%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations