Opinion Poll by Marc for Αlpha TV, 10–13 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 50.1% | 48.1–52.1% | 47.5–52.7% | 47.0–53.2% | 46.1–54.1% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 24.6% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.5–26.9% | 22.1–27.4% | 21.3–28.2% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.0–9.2% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–6.0% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.5–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 186 | 180–191 | 178–193 | 177–194 | 174–197 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–77 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 19 | 16–22 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 14–25 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 11 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 0–16 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 178 | 3% | 97% | |
| 179 | 2% | 95% | |
| 180 | 4% | 93% | |
| 181 | 4% | 89% | |
| 182 | 9% | 85% | |
| 183 | 4% | 76% | |
| 184 | 10% | 73% | |
| 185 | 8% | 63% | |
| 186 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 187 | 9% | 44% | |
| 188 | 8% | 35% | |
| 189 | 9% | 27% | |
| 190 | 3% | 18% | |
| 191 | 6% | 16% | |
| 192 | 3% | 9% | |
| 193 | 3% | 6% | |
| 194 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 195 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 93% | |
| 63 | 6% | 89% | |
| 64 | 7% | 83% | |
| 65 | 11% | 75% | |
| 66 | 10% | 64% | |
| 67 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 42% | |
| 69 | 8% | 32% | |
| 70 | 8% | 24% | |
| 71 | 5% | 16% | |
| 72 | 5% | 11% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 8% | 94% | |
| 17 | 15% | 87% | |
| 18 | 16% | 71% | |
| 19 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 14% | 36% | |
| 21 | 11% | 22% | |
| 22 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 5% | 98% | |
| 14 | 9% | 94% | |
| 15 | 18% | 84% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 47% | |
| 18 | 14% | 30% | |
| 19 | 9% | 16% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 8% | 97% | |
| 10 | 18% | 89% | Last Result |
| 11 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 41% | |
| 13 | 11% | 23% | |
| 14 | 8% | 12% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 9% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 205 | 100% | 199–210 | 197–212 | 196–213 | 193–216 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 186 | 100% | 180–191 | 178–193 | 177–194 | 174–197 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 67 | 0% | 63–73 | 61–74 | 60–76 | 58–79 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 0% | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–74 | 58–77 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0% | 100% | |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 195 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 196 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 2% | 97% | |
| 198 | 2% | 95% | |
| 199 | 4% | 93% | |
| 200 | 5% | 89% | |
| 201 | 6% | 84% | |
| 202 | 7% | 78% | |
| 203 | 9% | 70% | |
| 204 | 10% | 61% | |
| 205 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 206 | 9% | 43% | |
| 207 | 10% | 34% | |
| 208 | 6% | 25% | |
| 209 | 7% | 19% | |
| 210 | 3% | 12% | |
| 211 | 3% | 9% | |
| 212 | 2% | 6% | |
| 213 | 2% | 4% | |
| 214 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 215 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 178 | 3% | 97% | |
| 179 | 2% | 95% | |
| 180 | 4% | 93% | |
| 181 | 4% | 89% | |
| 182 | 9% | 85% | |
| 183 | 4% | 76% | |
| 184 | 10% | 73% | |
| 185 | 8% | 63% | |
| 186 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 187 | 9% | 44% | |
| 188 | 8% | 35% | |
| 189 | 9% | 27% | |
| 190 | 3% | 18% | |
| 191 | 6% | 16% | |
| 192 | 3% | 9% | |
| 193 | 3% | 6% | |
| 194 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 195 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 7% | 86% | |
| 65 | 10% | 79% | |
| 66 | 10% | 69% | |
| 67 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 49% | |
| 69 | 9% | 39% | |
| 70 | 8% | 30% | |
| 71 | 6% | 22% | |
| 72 | 5% | 17% | |
| 73 | 4% | 11% | |
| 74 | 3% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 93% | |
| 63 | 6% | 89% | |
| 64 | 7% | 83% | |
| 65 | 11% | 75% | |
| 66 | 10% | 64% | |
| 67 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 42% | |
| 69 | 8% | 32% | |
| 70 | 8% | 24% | |
| 71 | 5% | 16% | |
| 72 | 5% | 11% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Αlpha TV
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1020
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.47%