Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 10–12 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 49.9% | 48.3–51.5% | 47.8–52.0% | 47.4–52.4% | 46.6–53.2% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 24.6% | 23.2–26.1% | 22.9–26.5% | 22.5–26.9% | 21.9–27.6% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.9% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.2–7.6% | 4.8–8.1% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.4% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.1% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 185 | 180–189 | 179–191 | 178–192 | 176–195 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 22 | 19–24 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 10 | 8–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 178 | 2% | 98% | |
| 179 | 3% | 97% | |
| 180 | 4% | 94% | |
| 181 | 7% | 89% | |
| 182 | 8% | 82% | |
| 183 | 10% | 74% | |
| 184 | 12% | 64% | |
| 185 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 186 | 10% | 41% | |
| 187 | 9% | 31% | |
| 188 | 7% | 22% | |
| 189 | 6% | 15% | |
| 190 | 3% | 9% | |
| 191 | 2% | 6% | |
| 192 | 2% | 4% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 10% | 85% | |
| 65 | 12% | 75% | |
| 66 | 12% | 64% | |
| 67 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 38% | |
| 69 | 10% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 8% | 96% | |
| 20 | 14% | 88% | |
| 21 | 20% | 74% | |
| 22 | 20% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 15% | 33% | |
| 24 | 11% | 18% | |
| 25 | 5% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 15 | 11% | 95% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 84% | |
| 17 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 41% | |
| 19 | 12% | 21% | |
| 20 | 6% | 9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0% | 94% | |
| 3 | 0% | 94% | |
| 4 | 0% | 94% | |
| 5 | 0% | 94% | |
| 6 | 0% | 94% | |
| 7 | 0% | 94% | |
| 8 | 5% | 94% | |
| 9 | 23% | 89% | |
| 10 | 30% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 22% | 35% | |
| 12 | 10% | 14% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 206 | 100% | 202–211 | 201–213 | 200–214 | 198–217 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 185 | 100% | 180–189 | 179–191 | 178–192 | 176–195 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0% | 100% | |
| 189 | 0% | 100% | |
| 190 | 0% | 100% | |
| 191 | 0% | 100% | |
| 192 | 0% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 100% | |
| 194 | 0% | 100% | |
| 195 | 0% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 199 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 200 | 2% | 98% | |
| 201 | 3% | 96% | |
| 202 | 5% | 93% | |
| 203 | 7% | 88% | |
| 204 | 9% | 81% | |
| 205 | 11% | 71% | |
| 206 | 12% | 61% | |
| 207 | 11% | 49% | Median |
| 208 | 10% | 38% | |
| 209 | 9% | 28% | |
| 210 | 7% | 19% | |
| 211 | 4% | 13% | |
| 212 | 3% | 8% | |
| 213 | 2% | 5% | |
| 214 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 215 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 217 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 100% | |
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 178 | 2% | 98% | |
| 179 | 3% | 97% | |
| 180 | 4% | 94% | |
| 181 | 7% | 89% | |
| 182 | 8% | 82% | |
| 183 | 10% | 74% | |
| 184 | 12% | 64% | |
| 185 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 186 | 10% | 41% | |
| 187 | 9% | 31% | |
| 188 | 7% | 22% | |
| 189 | 6% | 15% | |
| 190 | 3% | 9% | |
| 191 | 2% | 6% | |
| 192 | 2% | 4% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 10% | 85% | |
| 65 | 12% | 75% | |
| 66 | 12% | 64% | |
| 67 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 39% | |
| 69 | 10% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 18% | |
| 71 | 5% | 11% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 7% | 92% | |
| 64 | 10% | 85% | |
| 65 | 12% | 75% | |
| 66 | 12% | 64% | |
| 67 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 38% | |
| 69 | 10% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ
- Fieldwork period: 10–12 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1527
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.30%