Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for MEGA TV, 23–29 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 47.9% | 46.1–49.8% | 45.6–50.3% | 45.1–50.8% | 44.2–51.6% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 25.5% | 24.0–27.2% | 23.5–27.7% | 23.2–28.1% | 22.4–28.9% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.8–8.2% | 5.6–8.5% | 5.2–9.0% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.2–7.7% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.5–4.6% | 2.3–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 176 | 171–181 | 169–183 | 168–184 | 166–187 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–22 | 14–24 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–19 | 11–21 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 15 | 13–18 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 169 | 3% | 97% | |
| 170 | 3% | 94% | |
| 171 | 5% | 91% | |
| 172 | 7% | 86% | |
| 173 | 8% | 79% | |
| 174 | 10% | 71% | |
| 175 | 10% | 61% | |
| 176 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 177 | 9% | 42% | |
| 178 | 8% | 32% | |
| 179 | 6% | 24% | |
| 180 | 5% | 18% | |
| 181 | 4% | 13% | |
| 182 | 3% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 8% | 86% | |
| 65 | 10% | 78% | |
| 66 | 13% | 69% | |
| 67 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 45% | |
| 69 | 10% | 35% | |
| 70 | 8% | 24% | |
| 71 | 6% | 16% | |
| 72 | 4% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | |
| 16 | 11% | 93% | |
| 17 | 17% | 82% | |
| 18 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 45% | |
| 20 | 13% | 26% | |
| 21 | 8% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 23 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 8% | 97% | |
| 14 | 15% | 89% | |
| 15 | 21% | 74% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 33% | |
| 18 | 9% | 16% | |
| 19 | 4% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 10% | 95% | |
| 14 | 18% | 84% | |
| 15 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 16 | 19% | 43% | |
| 17 | 13% | 23% | |
| 18 | 6% | 11% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 81% | |
| 2 | 0% | 81% | |
| 3 | 0% | 81% | |
| 4 | 0% | 81% | |
| 5 | 0% | 81% | |
| 6 | 0% | 81% | |
| 7 | 0% | 81% | |
| 8 | 16% | 81% | |
| 9 | 28% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 22% | 37% | |
| 11 | 11% | 16% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 194 | 100% | 189–200 | 188–201 | 186–203 | 184–206 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 176 | 100% | 171–181 | 169–183 | 168–184 | 166–187 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 75 | 0% | 69–80 | 67–81 | 66–82 | 63–85 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 0% | 63–72 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 187 | 2% | 97% | |
| 188 | 3% | 95% | |
| 189 | 5% | 92% | |
| 190 | 7% | 87% | |
| 191 | 7% | 80% | |
| 192 | 8% | 72% | |
| 193 | 10% | 64% | |
| 194 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 195 | 9% | 44% | |
| 196 | 8% | 35% | |
| 197 | 7% | 27% | |
| 198 | 5% | 20% | |
| 199 | 4% | 15% | |
| 200 | 4% | 11% | |
| 201 | 3% | 8% | |
| 202 | 2% | 5% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 169 | 3% | 97% | |
| 170 | 3% | 94% | |
| 171 | 5% | 91% | |
| 172 | 7% | 86% | |
| 173 | 8% | 79% | |
| 174 | 10% | 71% | |
| 175 | 10% | 61% | |
| 176 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 177 | 9% | 42% | |
| 178 | 8% | 32% | |
| 179 | 6% | 24% | |
| 180 | 5% | 18% | |
| 181 | 4% | 13% | |
| 182 | 3% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 6% | |
| 184 | 2% | 4% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 2% | 94% | |
| 69 | 3% | 92% | |
| 70 | 4% | 89% | |
| 71 | 5% | 85% | |
| 72 | 6% | 80% | |
| 73 | 7% | 74% | |
| 74 | 9% | 67% | |
| 75 | 10% | 58% | |
| 76 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 77 | 10% | 39% | |
| 78 | 9% | 28% | |
| 79 | 6% | 19% | |
| 80 | 5% | 13% | |
| 81 | 3% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 8% | 86% | |
| 65 | 10% | 78% | |
| 66 | 13% | 69% | |
| 67 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 45% | |
| 69 | 10% | 35% | |
| 70 | 8% | 24% | |
| 71 | 6% | 16% | |
| 72 | 4% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metron Analysis
- Commissioner(s): MEGA TV
- Fieldwork period: 23–29 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1202
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%