Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 6–10 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 43.1% | 41.1–45.1% | 40.5–45.7% | 40.1–46.2% | 39.1–47.2% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 167 | 162–172 | 160–174 | 159–175 | 156–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 72 | 69–75 | 68–76 | 66–76 | 60–78 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 20 | 18–23 | 16–24 | 16–25 | 15–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–20 | 12–21 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 0–16 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 159 | 2% | 98% | |
| 160 | 3% | 96% | |
| 161 | 3% | 94% | |
| 162 | 4% | 90% | |
| 163 | 7% | 86% | |
| 164 | 10% | 79% | |
| 165 | 7% | 70% | |
| 166 | 10% | 63% | |
| 167 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 168 | 9% | 42% | |
| 169 | 8% | 34% | |
| 170 | 8% | 26% | |
| 171 | 5% | 18% | |
| 172 | 4% | 12% | |
| 173 | 3% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 12% | 85% | |
| 71 | 13% | 73% | |
| 72 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 15% | 40% | |
| 74 | 12% | 24% | |
| 75 | 7% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 95% | |
| 18 | 6% | 93% | |
| 19 | 21% | 87% | |
| 20 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 7% | 44% | |
| 22 | 11% | 37% | Last Result |
| 23 | 16% | 26% | |
| 24 | 7% | 10% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 4% | 97% | |
| 14 | 14% | 94% | |
| 15 | 18% | 79% | Last Result |
| 16 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 17 | 17% | 40% | |
| 18 | 14% | 24% | |
| 19 | 6% | 10% | |
| 20 | 2% | 4% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 15% | 93% | |
| 12 | 18% | 78% | |
| 13 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 14 | 14% | 43% | |
| 15 | 15% | 28% | |
| 16 | 9% | 13% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 9 | 10% | 97% | Last Result |
| 10 | 17% | 87% | |
| 11 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 40% | |
| 13 | 15% | 23% | |
| 14 | 4% | 7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 187 | 100% | 182–192 | 181–194 | 179–195 | 176–198 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 167 | 100% | 162–172 | 160–174 | 159–175 | 156–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 83 | 0% | 78–87 | 77–88 | 75–89 | 70–91 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 72 | 0% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 66–76 | 60–78 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 180 | 1.3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 181 | 4% | 96% | |
| 182 | 3% | 91% | |
| 183 | 5% | 88% | |
| 184 | 8% | 84% | |
| 185 | 7% | 75% | |
| 186 | 8% | 69% | |
| 187 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 188 | 12% | 50% | |
| 189 | 10% | 38% | |
| 190 | 6% | 29% | |
| 191 | 7% | 23% | |
| 192 | 6% | 16% | |
| 193 | 3% | 10% | |
| 194 | 2% | 7% | |
| 195 | 2% | 4% | |
| 196 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 159 | 2% | 98% | |
| 160 | 3% | 96% | |
| 161 | 3% | 94% | |
| 162 | 4% | 90% | |
| 163 | 7% | 86% | |
| 164 | 10% | 79% | |
| 165 | 7% | 70% | |
| 166 | 10% | 63% | |
| 167 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 168 | 9% | 42% | |
| 169 | 8% | 34% | |
| 170 | 8% | 26% | |
| 171 | 5% | 18% | |
| 172 | 4% | 12% | |
| 173 | 3% | 8% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 77 | 2% | 96% | |
| 78 | 5% | 95% | |
| 79 | 5% | 90% | |
| 80 | 5% | 84% | |
| 81 | 9% | 80% | |
| 82 | 13% | 71% | |
| 83 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 84 | 13% | 44% | |
| 85 | 9% | 32% | |
| 86 | 8% | 23% | |
| 87 | 6% | 15% | |
| 88 | 4% | 9% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 12% | 85% | |
| 71 | 13% | 73% | |
| 72 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 15% | 40% | |
| 74 | 12% | 24% | |
| 75 | 7% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Alco
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 6–10 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%