Opinion Poll by Marc for Αlpha TV, 10–14 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 48.9% 46.8–50.9% 46.3–51.5% 45.8–52.0% 44.8–52.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.2–26.6% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.8%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 180 174–186 172–188 171–189 168–192
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 65 60–70 59–71 58–72 55–75
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 22 19–25 18–26 17–27 16–28
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 11 9–13 8–14 8–15 0–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 8 0–10 0–11 0–11 0–12

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.6%  
169 0.6% 99.3%  
170 1.0% 98.7%  
171 2% 98%  
172 2% 96%  
173 3% 94%  
174 4% 90%  
175 6% 86%  
176 6% 80%  
177 8% 74%  
178 7% 66%  
179 8% 59%  
180 8% 51% Median
181 8% 43%  
182 7% 35%  
183 7% 28%  
184 6% 21%  
185 4% 15%  
186 3% 11%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 5%  
189 1.2% 3%  
190 0.8% 2%  
191 0.5% 1.4%  
192 0.4% 0.9%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98.8%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 95%  
60 5% 92%  
61 7% 87%  
62 8% 80%  
63 10% 71%  
64 11% 62%  
65 10% 51% Median
66 10% 41%  
67 9% 31%  
68 6% 22%  
69 5% 16%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 5% 97%  
19 9% 93%  
20 13% 84%  
21 17% 71%  
22 16% 55% Last Result, Median
23 15% 39%  
24 11% 23%  
25 7% 13%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 1.5% 99.6%  
14 4% 98%  
15 10% 94% Last Result
16 15% 84%  
17 18% 69%  
18 18% 51% Median
19 15% 33%  
20 10% 19%  
21 5% 9%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.4%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 3% 98%  
9 13% 95%  
10 21% 82% Last Result
11 23% 61% Median
12 19% 38%  
13 11% 19%  
14 5% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 0% 58%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0% 58%  
7 0% 58%  
8 17% 58% Median
9 21% 41% Last Result
10 13% 21%  
11 5% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 201 100% 195–208 194–210 192–211 190–215
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 180 100% 174–186 172–188 171–189 168–192
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 70 0% 63–76 62–78 61–79 58–82
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 65 0% 60–70 59–71 58–72 55–75

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100% Last Result
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 100%  
186 0% 100%  
187 0.1% 100%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.3% 99.8%  
190 0.4% 99.5%  
191 0.7% 99.1%  
192 1.2% 98%  
193 2% 97%  
194 3% 95%  
195 4% 92%  
196 5% 89%  
197 6% 84%  
198 7% 78%  
199 7% 72%  
200 8% 64%  
201 8% 57%  
202 7% 49% Median
203 7% 41%  
204 7% 34%  
205 6% 27%  
206 5% 21%  
207 4% 16%  
208 3% 11%  
209 3% 8%  
210 2% 6%  
211 1.3% 4%  
212 0.8% 2%  
213 0.7% 2%  
214 0.4% 0.9%  
215 0.2% 0.5%  
216 0.1% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0.1% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.2% 99.8%  
168 0.3% 99.6%  
169 0.6% 99.3%  
170 1.0% 98.7%  
171 2% 98%  
172 2% 96%  
173 3% 94%  
174 4% 90%  
175 6% 86%  
176 6% 80%  
177 8% 74%  
178 7% 66%  
179 8% 59%  
180 8% 51% Median
181 8% 43%  
182 7% 35%  
183 7% 28%  
184 6% 21%  
185 4% 15%  
186 3% 11%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 5%  
189 1.2% 3%  
190 0.8% 2%  
191 0.5% 1.4%  
192 0.4% 0.9%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.8% 99.3%  
60 1.0% 98.5%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 93%  
64 4% 90%  
65 5% 86%  
66 6% 81%  
67 6% 75%  
68 6% 69%  
69 7% 63%  
70 8% 56%  
71 8% 48%  
72 7% 40%  
73 7% 33% Median
74 6% 26%  
75 6% 20%  
76 4% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98.8%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 95%  
60 5% 92%  
61 7% 87%  
62 8% 80%  
63 10% 71%  
64 11% 62%  
65 10% 51% Median
66 10% 41%  
67 9% 31%  
68 6% 22%  
69 5% 16%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations