Opinion Poll by Κάπα Research, 17–19 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 45.7% 43.8–47.7% 43.2–48.3% 42.7–48.8% 41.8–49.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.6% 26.8–30.4% 26.3–30.9% 25.9–31.4% 25.1–32.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.0% 5.5–9.6%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.2% 5.3–7.2% 5.1–7.5% 4.9–7.8% 4.5–8.3%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.0%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 165–176 163–178 162–179 160–182
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–85
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 16 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 11 9–13 9–14 8–15 0–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0.1% 100%  
158 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.6% 99.5%  
161 0.8% 99.0%  
162 2% 98%  
163 3% 97%  
164 3% 94%  
165 5% 91%  
166 5% 86%  
167 9% 81%  
168 8% 72%  
169 9% 64%  
170 10% 55% Median
171 7% 45%  
172 9% 38%  
173 6% 29%  
174 6% 22%  
175 4% 16%  
176 4% 12%  
177 3% 8%  
178 1.5% 5%  
179 1.4% 4%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 4% 93%  
71 6% 89%  
72 8% 83%  
73 10% 76%  
74 10% 66%  
75 10% 56% Median
76 10% 45%  
77 9% 36%  
78 8% 27%  
79 7% 19%  
80 4% 12%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 5% 97%  
17 11% 92%  
18 16% 81%  
19 18% 65% Median
20 18% 47%  
21 13% 29%  
22 8% 16% Last Result
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.7%  
13 4% 98%  
14 8% 94%  
15 16% 86% Last Result
16 24% 71% Median
17 21% 47%  
18 13% 26%  
19 6% 13%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.8% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 2% 98.6%  
9 11% 96%  
10 19% 85% Last Result
11 25% 66% Median
12 20% 41%  
13 12% 21%  
14 6% 9%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0% 81%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0% 81%  
7 0% 81%  
8 16% 81%  
9 29% 65% Last Result, Median
10 20% 36%  
11 10% 16%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 189 100% 184–196 182–198 181–199 179–202
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 100% 165–176 163–178 162–179 160–182
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 83 0% 77–88 75–90 73–91 71–94
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 0% 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–85

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0.1% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.8%  
179 0.4% 99.6%  
180 0.8% 99.2% Last Result
181 1.4% 98%  
182 2% 97%  
183 3% 95%  
184 5% 92%  
185 5% 87%  
186 7% 82%  
187 9% 75%  
188 8% 66%  
189 9% 58% Median
190 9% 49%  
191 8% 40%  
192 7% 32%  
193 7% 25%  
194 4% 19%  
195 4% 14%  
196 3% 11%  
197 2% 7%  
198 2% 5%  
199 1.0% 3%  
200 0.8% 2%  
201 0.7% 1.4%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.3% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0.1% 100%  
158 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.6% 99.5%  
161 0.8% 99.0%  
162 2% 98%  
163 3% 97%  
164 3% 94%  
165 5% 91%  
166 5% 86%  
167 9% 81%  
168 8% 72%  
169 9% 64%  
170 10% 55% Median
171 7% 45%  
172 9% 38%  
173 6% 29%  
174 6% 22%  
175 4% 16%  
176 4% 12%  
177 3% 8%  
178 1.5% 5%  
179 1.4% 4%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 0.6% 99.0%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 94%  
77 4% 91%  
78 4% 87%  
79 5% 83%  
80 6% 78%  
81 8% 72%  
82 8% 64%  
83 10% 56%  
84 9% 46% Median
85 9% 38%  
86 8% 29%  
87 6% 21%  
88 5% 15%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 4% 93%  
71 6% 89%  
72 8% 83%  
73 10% 76%  
74 10% 66%  
75 10% 56% Median
76 10% 45%  
77 9% 36%  
78 8% 27%  
79 7% 19%  
80 4% 12%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations