Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for MEGA TV, 18–24 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 45.8% | 44.0–47.7% | 43.5–48.2% | 43.0–48.6% | 42.1–49.5% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 24.8% | 23.3–26.5% | 22.8–26.9% | 22.5–27.3% | 21.7–28.1% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.1–10.2% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.3% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.9–5.1% | 2.6–5.5% |
| Ένωση Κεντρώων | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 171 | 167–176 | 165–178 | 164–179 | 162–182 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 66 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–75 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 15 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 | 11–20 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
| Ένωση Κεντρώων | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 3% | 96% | |
| 166 | 4% | 94% | |
| 167 | 5% | 90% | |
| 168 | 8% | 85% | |
| 169 | 9% | 78% | |
| 170 | 11% | 68% | |
| 171 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 172 | 9% | 46% | |
| 173 | 9% | 37% | |
| 174 | 7% | 28% | |
| 175 | 7% | 21% | |
| 176 | 5% | 14% | |
| 177 | 4% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 2% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 6% | 91% | |
| 63 | 8% | 85% | |
| 64 | 11% | 77% | |
| 65 | 12% | 66% | |
| 66 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 44% | |
| 68 | 10% | 32% | |
| 69 | 8% | 22% | |
| 70 | 6% | 14% | |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 6% | 97% | |
| 19 | 11% | 92% | |
| 20 | 17% | 80% | |
| 21 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 44% | Last Result |
| 23 | 14% | 28% | |
| 24 | 8% | 15% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 13% | 90% | Last Result |
| 16 | 22% | 77% | |
| 17 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 35% | |
| 19 | 10% | 18% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 7% | 97% | |
| 13 | 16% | 90% | |
| 14 | 20% | 74% | |
| 15 | 23% | 54% | Median |
| 16 | 17% | 31% | |
| 17 | 9% | 14% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 6% | 95% | |
| 9 | 21% | 89% | Last Result |
| 10 | 27% | 68% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 42% | |
| 12 | 13% | 20% | |
| 13 | 6% | 8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Ένωση Κεντρώων
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ένωση Κεντρώων page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 193 | 100% | 188–198 | 186–199 | 185–200 | 183–204 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 171 | 100% | 167–176 | 165–178 | 164–179 | 162–182 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 76 | 0% | 71–80 | 69–82 | 68–83 | 64–85 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 66 | 0% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–75 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 186 | 2% | 97% | |
| 187 | 4% | 95% | |
| 188 | 5% | 91% | |
| 189 | 7% | 86% | |
| 190 | 9% | 79% | |
| 191 | 10% | 70% | |
| 192 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 193 | 9% | 50% | |
| 194 | 9% | 41% | |
| 195 | 9% | 32% | |
| 196 | 7% | 23% | |
| 197 | 5% | 15% | |
| 198 | 4% | 10% | |
| 199 | 3% | 6% | |
| 200 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 3% | 96% | |
| 166 | 4% | 94% | |
| 167 | 5% | 90% | |
| 168 | 8% | 85% | |
| 169 | 9% | 78% | |
| 170 | 11% | 68% | |
| 171 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 172 | 9% | 46% | |
| 173 | 9% | 37% | |
| 174 | 7% | 28% | |
| 175 | 7% | 21% | |
| 176 | 5% | 14% | |
| 177 | 4% | 9% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 2% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 3% | 95% | |
| 71 | 4% | 92% | |
| 72 | 5% | 89% | |
| 73 | 9% | 83% | |
| 74 | 9% | 75% | |
| 75 | 10% | 66% | |
| 76 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 45% | |
| 78 | 10% | 33% | |
| 79 | 9% | 23% | |
| 80 | 5% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 3% | 5% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 6% | 91% | |
| 63 | 8% | 85% | |
| 64 | 11% | 77% | |
| 65 | 12% | 66% | |
| 66 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 67 | 11% | 44% | |
| 68 | 10% | 32% | |
| 69 | 8% | 22% | |
| 70 | 6% | 14% | |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metron Analysis
- Commissioner(s): MEGA TV
- Fieldwork period: 18–24 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1205
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%