Opinion Poll by Prorata, 24–27 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 44.2% | 43.0–45.4% | 42.6–45.8% | 42.3–46.1% | 41.8–46.7% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 29.4% | 28.3–30.5% | 28.0–30.8% | 27.7–31.1% | 27.2–31.7% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.5–6.7% | 5.4–6.9% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0–6.1% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3–4.2% | 3.2–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3–4.2% | 3.2–4.4% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 169 | 166–173 | 165–174 | 164–175 | 163–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 79 | 76–83 | 75–84 | 75–84 | 73–86 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 0–12 | 0–12 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 0–13 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 4% | 97% | |
| 166 | 7% | 93% | |
| 167 | 10% | 86% | |
| 168 | 16% | 76% | |
| 169 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 170 | 16% | 47% | |
| 171 | 9% | 31% | |
| 172 | 10% | 21% | |
| 173 | 4% | 12% | |
| 174 | 3% | 7% | |
| 175 | 2% | 4% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 6% | 95% | |
| 77 | 11% | 89% | |
| 78 | 14% | 78% | |
| 79 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 80 | 16% | 47% | |
| 81 | 13% | 31% | |
| 82 | 9% | 19% | |
| 83 | 5% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 16% | 95% | |
| 16 | 30% | 80% | Median |
| 17 | 28% | 50% | |
| 18 | 16% | 22% | |
| 19 | 5% | 6% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 9% | 98% | |
| 14 | 24% | 89% | |
| 15 | 32% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 16 | 23% | 33% | |
| 17 | 8% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 9 | 34% | 95% | |
| 10 | 15% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 38% | 46% | |
| 12 | 7% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 3% | 98% | |
| 9 | 25% | 95% | Last Result |
| 10 | 36% | 70% | Median |
| 11 | 27% | 34% | |
| 12 | 6% | 7% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 186 | 100% | 182–189 | 182–191 | 181–192 | 179–195 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 169 | 100% | 166–173 | 165–174 | 164–175 | 163–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 89 | 0% | 86–93 | 85–94 | 84–95 | 81–96 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 79 | 0% | 76–83 | 75–84 | 75–84 | 73–86 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 98% | |
| 182 | 5% | 95% | |
| 183 | 8% | 90% | |
| 184 | 13% | 81% | |
| 185 | 15% | 69% | Median |
| 186 | 15% | 54% | |
| 187 | 13% | 39% | |
| 188 | 10% | 26% | |
| 189 | 6% | 16% | |
| 190 | 4% | 10% | |
| 191 | 2% | 6% | |
| 192 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 4% | 97% | |
| 166 | 7% | 93% | |
| 167 | 10% | 86% | |
| 168 | 16% | 76% | |
| 169 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 170 | 16% | 47% | |
| 171 | 9% | 31% | |
| 172 | 10% | 21% | |
| 173 | 4% | 12% | |
| 174 | 3% | 7% | |
| 175 | 2% | 4% | |
| 176 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 84 | 2% | 98% | |
| 85 | 4% | 96% | |
| 86 | 6% | 93% | |
| 87 | 10% | 87% | |
| 88 | 13% | 77% | |
| 89 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 90 | 16% | 48% | |
| 91 | 13% | 32% | |
| 92 | 9% | 19% | |
| 93 | 5% | 11% | |
| 94 | 3% | 5% | |
| 95 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 3% | 98% | |
| 76 | 6% | 95% | |
| 77 | 11% | 89% | |
| 78 | 14% | 78% | |
| 79 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 80 | 16% | 47% | |
| 81 | 13% | 31% | |
| 82 | 9% | 19% | |
| 83 | 5% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 5% | |
| 85 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Prorata
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–27 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 2726
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.81%