Opinion Poll by Opinion Poll for Political, 4–8 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 47.8% | 45.8–49.8% | 45.2–50.4% | 44.7–50.9% | 43.8–51.9% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 26.5% | 24.8–28.3% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.9–29.3% | 23.0–30.2% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 175 | 169–181 | 168–183 | 167–185 | 164–188 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 69 | 65–74 | 64–76 | 62–77 | 60–79 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 16–28 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 10 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 0–14 | 0–15 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 167 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 3% | 93% | |
| 170 | 5% | 90% | |
| 171 | 7% | 85% | |
| 172 | 7% | 78% | |
| 173 | 10% | 72% | |
| 174 | 8% | 61% | |
| 175 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 176 | 6% | 41% | |
| 177 | 6% | 36% | |
| 178 | 7% | 30% | |
| 179 | 5% | 22% | |
| 180 | 4% | 18% | |
| 181 | 5% | 13% | |
| 182 | 2% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 7% | |
| 184 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 7% | 91% | |
| 66 | 6% | 84% | |
| 67 | 4% | 79% | |
| 68 | 14% | 75% | |
| 69 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 49% | |
| 71 | 11% | 39% | |
| 72 | 8% | 28% | |
| 73 | 6% | 21% | |
| 74 | 6% | 15% | |
| 75 | 2% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 10% | 95% | |
| 20 | 23% | 85% | |
| 21 | 28% | 62% | Median |
| 22 | 19% | 35% | Last Result |
| 23 | 10% | 16% | |
| 24 | 3% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 8% | 95% | |
| 15 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 16 | 20% | 75% | |
| 17 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 13% | 32% | |
| 19 | 10% | 19% | |
| 20 | 5% | 9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 4% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 6% | 97% | |
| 9 | 15% | 91% | |
| 10 | 27% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 11 | 22% | 48% | |
| 12 | 14% | 27% | |
| 13 | 8% | 13% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 78% | |
| 2 | 0% | 78% | |
| 3 | 0% | 78% | |
| 4 | 0% | 78% | |
| 5 | 0% | 78% | |
| 6 | 0% | 78% | |
| 7 | 0% | 78% | |
| 8 | 23% | 78% | |
| 9 | 28% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 18% | 27% | |
| 11 | 7% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 196 | 100% | 190–202 | 189–205 | 188–206 | 186–209 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 175 | 100% | 169–181 | 168–183 | 167–185 | 164–188 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 77 | 0% | 70–83 | 68–84 | 67–85 | 64–88 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 69 | 0% | 65–74 | 64–76 | 62–77 | 60–79 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 186 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 187 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 189 | 3% | 97% | |
| 190 | 7% | 94% | |
| 191 | 3% | 87% | |
| 192 | 3% | 84% | |
| 193 | 12% | 81% | |
| 194 | 6% | 69% | |
| 195 | 6% | 62% | |
| 196 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 197 | 8% | 42% | |
| 198 | 4% | 34% | |
| 199 | 6% | 30% | |
| 200 | 6% | 24% | |
| 201 | 5% | 18% | |
| 202 | 4% | 13% | |
| 203 | 2% | 9% | |
| 204 | 2% | 7% | |
| 205 | 2% | 5% | |
| 206 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 207 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 167 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 3% | 96% | |
| 169 | 3% | 93% | |
| 170 | 5% | 90% | |
| 171 | 7% | 85% | |
| 172 | 7% | 78% | |
| 173 | 10% | 72% | |
| 174 | 8% | 61% | |
| 175 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 176 | 6% | 41% | |
| 177 | 6% | 36% | |
| 178 | 7% | 30% | |
| 179 | 5% | 22% | |
| 180 | 4% | 18% | |
| 181 | 5% | 13% | |
| 182 | 2% | 9% | |
| 183 | 2% | 7% | |
| 184 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 69 | 2% | 94% | |
| 70 | 2% | 92% | |
| 71 | 4% | 89% | |
| 72 | 4% | 86% | |
| 73 | 4% | 82% | |
| 74 | 9% | 78% | |
| 75 | 5% | 69% | |
| 76 | 5% | 64% | |
| 77 | 11% | 58% | |
| 78 | 9% | 47% | Median |
| 79 | 9% | 38% | |
| 80 | 10% | 29% | |
| 81 | 4% | 18% | |
| 82 | 5% | 15% | |
| 83 | 4% | 10% | |
| 84 | 3% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 7% | 91% | |
| 66 | 6% | 84% | |
| 67 | 4% | 79% | |
| 68 | 14% | 75% | |
| 69 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 70 | 10% | 49% | |
| 71 | 11% | 39% | |
| 72 | 8% | 28% | |
| 73 | 6% | 21% | |
| 74 | 6% | 15% | |
| 75 | 2% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinion Poll
- Commissioner(s): Political
- Fieldwork period: 4–8 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.81%