Opinion Poll by Marc for Αlpha TV, 7–11 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 48.3% | 46.3–50.3% | 45.7–50.9% | 45.2–51.4% | 44.3–52.4% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.7% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.6–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.5–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 179 | 173–185 | 172–186 | 170–188 | 168–190 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–75 | 58–77 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 22 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–27 | 16–28 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 13–21 | 12–23 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 97% | |
| 172 | 3% | 96% | |
| 173 | 3% | 93% | |
| 174 | 5% | 90% | |
| 175 | 5% | 85% | |
| 176 | 6% | 80% | |
| 177 | 8% | 74% | |
| 178 | 9% | 66% | |
| 179 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 180 | 9% | 48% | |
| 181 | 9% | 39% | |
| 182 | 7% | 30% | |
| 183 | 6% | 23% | |
| 184 | 5% | 17% | |
| 185 | 4% | 12% | |
| 186 | 2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 5% | 89% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 10% | 76% | |
| 66 | 9% | 66% | |
| 67 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 46% | |
| 69 | 9% | 35% | |
| 70 | 8% | 26% | |
| 71 | 5% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98% | |
| 19 | 9% | 94% | |
| 20 | 13% | 85% | |
| 21 | 15% | 72% | |
| 22 | 18% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 15% | 39% | |
| 24 | 11% | 25% | |
| 25 | 6% | 13% | |
| 26 | 4% | 7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 16 | 17% | 79% | |
| 17 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 43% | |
| 19 | 12% | 26% | |
| 20 | 8% | 14% | |
| 21 | 4% | 6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 14% | 92% | |
| 12 | 21% | 78% | |
| 13 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 36% | |
| 15 | 10% | 19% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 18% | |
| 2 | 0% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 18% | |
| 4 | 0% | 18% | |
| 5 | 0% | 18% | |
| 6 | 0% | 18% | |
| 7 | 0% | 18% | |
| 8 | 9% | 18% | |
| 9 | 7% | 10% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 201 | 100% | 195–207 | 194–208 | 192–210 | 189–212 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 179 | 100% | 173–185 | 172–186 | 170–188 | 168–190 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 68 | 0% | 63–75 | 62–76 | 61–78 | 59–81 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 67 | 0% | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–75 | 58–77 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 100% | |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 190 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 191 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 193 | 2% | 97% | |
| 194 | 3% | 95% | |
| 195 | 3% | 93% | |
| 196 | 4% | 89% | |
| 197 | 6% | 85% | |
| 198 | 6% | 79% | |
| 199 | 8% | 73% | |
| 200 | 8% | 65% | |
| 201 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 202 | 8% | 48% | |
| 203 | 8% | 39% | |
| 204 | 8% | 31% | |
| 205 | 6% | 23% | |
| 206 | 6% | 17% | |
| 207 | 4% | 11% | |
| 208 | 3% | 7% | |
| 209 | 2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0% | 100% | |
| 162 | 0% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 100% | |
| 164 | 0% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 169 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 171 | 2% | 97% | |
| 172 | 3% | 96% | |
| 173 | 3% | 93% | |
| 174 | 5% | 90% | |
| 175 | 5% | 85% | |
| 176 | 6% | 80% | |
| 177 | 8% | 74% | |
| 178 | 9% | 66% | |
| 179 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 180 | 9% | 48% | |
| 181 | 9% | 39% | |
| 182 | 7% | 30% | |
| 183 | 6% | 23% | |
| 184 | 5% | 17% | |
| 185 | 4% | 12% | |
| 186 | 2% | 7% | |
| 187 | 2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 96% | |
| 63 | 4% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 90% | |
| 65 | 8% | 84% | |
| 66 | 7% | 76% | |
| 67 | 9% | 68% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 59% | |
| 69 | 9% | 49% | |
| 70 | 9% | 40% | |
| 71 | 6% | 32% | |
| 72 | 7% | 26% | |
| 73 | 5% | 19% | |
| 74 | 4% | 14% | |
| 75 | 3% | 10% | |
| 76 | 3% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 5% | 89% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 10% | 76% | |
| 66 | 9% | 66% | |
| 67 | 11% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 46% | |
| 69 | 9% | 35% | |
| 70 | 8% | 26% | |
| 71 | 5% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 3% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Αlpha TV
- Fieldwork period: 7–11 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1010
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%