Opinion Poll by To The Point for Voria.gr, 7–16 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 42.5% | 40.4–44.7% | 39.8–45.3% | 39.3–45.8% | 38.3–46.8% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 28.9% | 27.0–30.9% | 26.5–31.5% | 26.0–32.0% | 25.1–33.0% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.3–8.6% | 4.8–9.2% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.9% | 4.2–7.2% | 3.8–7.8% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.5–4.9% | 2.2–5.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 166 | 160–172 | 158–174 | 157–175 | 154–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 79 | 73–84 | 72–86 | 71–87 | 68–90 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 18 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–23 | 13–25 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 15 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 | 10–21 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 | 0–15 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 157 | 2% | 98% | |
| 158 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 159 | 3% | 93% | |
| 160 | 5% | 90% | |
| 161 | 6% | 85% | |
| 162 | 7% | 80% | |
| 163 | 7% | 73% | |
| 164 | 7% | 66% | |
| 165 | 9% | 59% | |
| 166 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 42% | |
| 168 | 8% | 33% | |
| 169 | 7% | 25% | |
| 170 | 5% | 18% | |
| 171 | 3% | 13% | |
| 172 | 3% | 10% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 96% | |
| 73 | 4% | 93% | |
| 74 | 5% | 89% | |
| 75 | 6% | 83% | |
| 76 | 9% | 77% | |
| 77 | 8% | 68% | |
| 78 | 9% | 60% | |
| 79 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 80 | 8% | 40% | |
| 81 | 8% | 32% | |
| 82 | 6% | 24% | |
| 83 | 5% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 13% | |
| 85 | 3% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 87 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 5% | 97% | |
| 16 | 10% | 92% | |
| 17 | 14% | 82% | |
| 18 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 49% | |
| 20 | 13% | 33% | |
| 21 | 9% | 20% | |
| 22 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 6% | 97% | |
| 13 | 11% | 91% | |
| 14 | 17% | 80% | |
| 15 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 44% | |
| 17 | 11% | 25% | |
| 18 | 8% | 14% | |
| 19 | 4% | 7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 7% | 95% | |
| 12 | 19% | 88% | |
| 13 | 15% | 69% | |
| 14 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 31% | Last Result |
| 16 | 11% | 19% | |
| 17 | 5% | 8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 82% | |
| 2 | 0% | 82% | |
| 3 | 0% | 82% | |
| 4 | 0% | 82% | |
| 5 | 0% | 82% | |
| 6 | 0% | 82% | |
| 7 | 0% | 82% | |
| 8 | 6% | 82% | |
| 9 | 23% | 76% | Last Result |
| 10 | 23% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 15% | 30% | |
| 12 | 9% | 15% | |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 184 | 100% | 178–190 | 176–193 | 175–194 | 172–197 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 166 | 100% | 160–172 | 158–174 | 157–175 | 154–178 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 87 | 0% | 81–93 | 78–95 | 76–96 | 73–99 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 79 | 0% | 73–84 | 72–86 | 71–87 | 68–90 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 176 | 2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 3% | 95% | |
| 178 | 4% | 92% | |
| 179 | 5% | 88% | |
| 180 | 6% | 83% | Last Result |
| 181 | 7% | 78% | |
| 182 | 8% | 71% | |
| 183 | 8% | 63% | |
| 184 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 185 | 9% | 46% | |
| 186 | 8% | 37% | |
| 187 | 7% | 29% | |
| 188 | 5% | 22% | |
| 189 | 5% | 17% | |
| 190 | 3% | 12% | |
| 191 | 2% | 10% | |
| 192 | 2% | 7% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 194 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 157 | 2% | 98% | |
| 158 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 159 | 3% | 93% | |
| 160 | 5% | 90% | |
| 161 | 6% | 85% | |
| 162 | 7% | 80% | |
| 163 | 7% | 73% | |
| 164 | 7% | 66% | |
| 165 | 9% | 59% | |
| 166 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 42% | |
| 168 | 8% | 33% | |
| 169 | 7% | 25% | |
| 170 | 5% | 18% | |
| 171 | 3% | 13% | |
| 172 | 3% | 10% | |
| 173 | 2% | 7% | |
| 174 | 2% | 5% | |
| 175 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 78 | 2% | 96% | |
| 79 | 2% | 94% | |
| 80 | 2% | 93% | |
| 81 | 3% | 90% | |
| 82 | 4% | 87% | |
| 83 | 6% | 83% | |
| 84 | 7% | 78% | |
| 85 | 7% | 71% | |
| 86 | 8% | 64% | |
| 87 | 8% | 56% | |
| 88 | 9% | 48% | |
| 89 | 8% | 38% | Median |
| 90 | 6% | 30% | |
| 91 | 6% | 23% | |
| 92 | 5% | 17% | |
| 93 | 4% | 12% | |
| 94 | 3% | 9% | |
| 95 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 96 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 97 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 96% | |
| 73 | 4% | 93% | |
| 74 | 5% | 89% | |
| 75 | 6% | 83% | |
| 76 | 9% | 77% | |
| 77 | 8% | 68% | |
| 78 | 9% | 60% | |
| 79 | 10% | 50% | Median |
| 80 | 8% | 40% | |
| 81 | 8% | 32% | |
| 82 | 6% | 24% | |
| 83 | 5% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 13% | |
| 85 | 3% | 9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 87 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: To The Point
- Commissioner(s): Voria.gr
- Fieldwork period: 7–16 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 889
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%