Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 14–19 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 44.2% | 42.2–46.2% | 41.6–46.8% | 41.1–47.3% | 40.2–48.3% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 27.1% | 25.3–29.0% | 24.9–29.5% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.6–30.8% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 171 | 165–177 | 163–179 | 162–180 | 159–183 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 69–79 | 68–81 | 66–82 | 64–85 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 15–23 | 13–25 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 18 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–22 | 13–24 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 13 | 10–15 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 8 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 162 | 2% | 98% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 3% | 94% | |
| 165 | 4% | 91% | |
| 166 | 5% | 87% | |
| 167 | 7% | 82% | |
| 168 | 8% | 75% | |
| 169 | 9% | 67% | |
| 170 | 7% | 59% | |
| 171 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 172 | 8% | 43% | |
| 173 | 8% | 35% | |
| 174 | 7% | 28% | |
| 175 | 5% | 21% | |
| 176 | 5% | 15% | |
| 177 | 3% | 10% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 2% | 5% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 4% | 92% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 8% | 82% | |
| 72 | 8% | 74% | |
| 73 | 10% | 66% | |
| 74 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 8% | 45% | |
| 76 | 9% | 37% | |
| 77 | 9% | 29% | |
| 78 | 7% | 20% | |
| 79 | 4% | 13% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 5% | 98% | |
| 16 | 10% | 92% | |
| 17 | 14% | 82% | |
| 18 | 20% | 68% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 48% | |
| 20 | 15% | 33% | |
| 21 | 10% | 18% | |
| 22 | 4% | 9% | Last Result |
| 23 | 2% | 4% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 15 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 16 | 12% | 88% | |
| 17 | 16% | 75% | |
| 18 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 39% | |
| 20 | 11% | 24% | |
| 21 | 8% | 13% | |
| 22 | 3% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 8% | 98% | Last Result |
| 11 | 14% | 89% | |
| 12 | 19% | 75% | |
| 13 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 34% | |
| 15 | 9% | 17% | |
| 16 | 4% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 61% | |
| 2 | 0% | 61% | |
| 3 | 0% | 61% | |
| 4 | 0% | 61% | |
| 5 | 0% | 61% | |
| 6 | 0% | 61% | |
| 7 | 0% | 61% | |
| 8 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 9 | 24% | 49% | Last Result |
| 10 | 14% | 25% | |
| 11 | 7% | 11% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 189 | 100% | 183–195 | 181–197 | 180–199 | 177–202 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 171 | 100% | 165–177 | 163–179 | 162–180 | 159–183 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 80 | 0% | 73–86 | 72–88 | 70–89 | 67–92 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 0% | 69–79 | 68–81 | 66–82 | 64–85 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 179 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 181 | 2% | 97% | |
| 182 | 3% | 95% | |
| 183 | 4% | 92% | |
| 184 | 4% | 88% | |
| 185 | 6% | 84% | |
| 186 | 7% | 78% | |
| 187 | 7% | 71% | |
| 188 | 8% | 64% | |
| 189 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 190 | 8% | 47% | |
| 191 | 6% | 39% | |
| 192 | 7% | 33% | |
| 193 | 7% | 25% | |
| 194 | 4% | 18% | |
| 195 | 4% | 14% | |
| 196 | 3% | 10% | |
| 197 | 2% | 7% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 199 | 2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 162 | 2% | 98% | |
| 163 | 3% | 96% | |
| 164 | 3% | 94% | |
| 165 | 4% | 91% | |
| 166 | 5% | 87% | |
| 167 | 7% | 82% | |
| 168 | 8% | 75% | |
| 169 | 9% | 67% | |
| 170 | 7% | 59% | |
| 171 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 172 | 8% | 43% | |
| 173 | 8% | 35% | |
| 174 | 7% | 28% | |
| 175 | 5% | 21% | |
| 176 | 5% | 15% | |
| 177 | 3% | 10% | |
| 178 | 2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 2% | 5% | |
| 180 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 3% | 95% | |
| 73 | 3% | 93% | |
| 74 | 4% | 89% | |
| 75 | 5% | 85% | |
| 76 | 6% | 81% | |
| 77 | 7% | 75% | |
| 78 | 7% | 69% | |
| 79 | 7% | 61% | |
| 80 | 9% | 55% | |
| 81 | 7% | 46% | |
| 82 | 7% | 39% | Median |
| 83 | 7% | 32% | |
| 84 | 6% | 25% | |
| 85 | 5% | 19% | |
| 86 | 5% | 13% | |
| 87 | 3% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 91 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 3% | 96% | |
| 69 | 4% | 92% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 8% | 82% | |
| 72 | 8% | 74% | |
| 73 | 10% | 66% | |
| 74 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 8% | 45% | |
| 76 | 9% | 37% | |
| 77 | 9% | 29% | |
| 78 | 7% | 20% | |
| 79 | 4% | 13% | |
| 80 | 4% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Alco
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%