Opinion Poll by Metron Analysis for Mega TV, 19–25 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 46.3% | 44.5–48.2% | 44.0–48.7% | 43.5–49.2% | 42.6–50.1% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 25.3% | 23.8–27.0% | 23.3–27.5% | 23.0–27.9% | 22.2–28.7% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.6% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.3–10.4% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.6–9.5% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.5–5.9% | 3.2–6.4% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 174 | 168–178 | 166–180 | 165–182 | 162–185 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 68 | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–77 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 22 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–28 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 20 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–16 | 9–17 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 8 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 2% | 96% | |
| 167 | 3% | 95% | |
| 168 | 4% | 91% | |
| 169 | 4% | 87% | |
| 170 | 4% | 83% | |
| 171 | 8% | 79% | |
| 172 | 8% | 71% | |
| 173 | 9% | 63% | |
| 174 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 175 | 9% | 41% | |
| 176 | 10% | 33% | |
| 177 | 10% | 23% | |
| 178 | 4% | 14% | |
| 179 | 3% | 9% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 96% | |
| 63 | 6% | 91% | |
| 64 | 7% | 85% | |
| 65 | 6% | 78% | |
| 66 | 7% | 73% | |
| 67 | 11% | 66% | |
| 68 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 69 | 10% | 43% | |
| 70 | 13% | 33% | |
| 71 | 10% | 20% | |
| 72 | 3% | 10% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 19 | 8% | 95% | |
| 20 | 15% | 87% | |
| 21 | 15% | 71% | |
| 22 | 20% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 12% | 36% | |
| 24 | 13% | 24% | |
| 25 | 7% | 12% | |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 16 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 9% | 94% | |
| 18 | 11% | 85% | |
| 19 | 20% | 74% | |
| 20 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 33% | |
| 22 | 9% | 19% | |
| 23 | 7% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 11 | 19% | 88% | |
| 12 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 41% | |
| 14 | 16% | 26% | |
| 15 | 7% | 10% | |
| 16 | 3% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 0% | 54% | |
| 4 | 0% | 54% | |
| 5 | 0% | 54% | |
| 6 | 0% | 54% | |
| 7 | 0% | 54% | |
| 8 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 38% | Last Result |
| 10 | 12% | 17% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 196 | 100% | 190–201 | 188–203 | 187–204 | 184–206 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 174 | 100% | 168–178 | 166–180 | 165–182 | 162–185 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 72 | 0% | 67–79 | 65–80 | 64–81 | 62–83 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 68 | 0% | 63–71 | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–77 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 186 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 187 | 3% | 98% | |
| 188 | 2% | 95% | |
| 189 | 3% | 94% | |
| 190 | 7% | 91% | |
| 191 | 3% | 84% | |
| 192 | 4% | 81% | |
| 193 | 8% | 77% | |
| 194 | 8% | 69% | |
| 195 | 9% | 62% | |
| 196 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 197 | 12% | 40% | |
| 198 | 5% | 28% | |
| 199 | 8% | 23% | |
| 200 | 4% | 15% | |
| 201 | 2% | 11% | |
| 202 | 3% | 9% | |
| 203 | 2% | 6% | |
| 204 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 206 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 164 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 2% | 96% | |
| 167 | 3% | 95% | |
| 168 | 4% | 91% | |
| 169 | 4% | 87% | |
| 170 | 4% | 83% | |
| 171 | 8% | 79% | |
| 172 | 8% | 71% | |
| 173 | 9% | 63% | |
| 174 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 175 | 9% | 41% | |
| 176 | 10% | 33% | |
| 177 | 10% | 23% | |
| 178 | 4% | 14% | |
| 179 | 3% | 9% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 4% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 5% | 92% | |
| 68 | 7% | 87% | |
| 69 | 6% | 80% | |
| 70 | 10% | 74% | |
| 71 | 11% | 64% | |
| 72 | 8% | 53% | |
| 73 | 6% | 45% | |
| 74 | 4% | 39% | |
| 75 | 6% | 35% | |
| 76 | 8% | 30% | Median |
| 77 | 4% | 22% | |
| 78 | 5% | 17% | |
| 79 | 6% | 12% | |
| 80 | 2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 96% | |
| 63 | 6% | 91% | |
| 64 | 7% | 85% | |
| 65 | 6% | 78% | |
| 66 | 7% | 73% | |
| 67 | 11% | 66% | |
| 68 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 69 | 10% | 43% | |
| 70 | 13% | 33% | |
| 71 | 10% | 20% | |
| 72 | 3% | 10% | |
| 73 | 3% | 6% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metron Analysis
- Commissioner(s): Mega TV
- Fieldwork period: 19–25 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.04%