Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 12–17 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 42.8% | 40.8–44.8% | 40.2–45.4% | 39.8–45.9% | 38.8–46.9% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 26.7% | 25.0–28.6% | 24.5–29.1% | 24.1–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 167 | 162–172 | 161–174 | 160–176 | 157–180 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 65–84 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 20 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 15–23 | 14–26 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 15–24 | 14–25 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 9 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 159 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 161 | 5% | 97% | |
| 162 | 2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 5% | 89% | |
| 164 | 14% | 85% | |
| 165 | 10% | 71% | |
| 166 | 7% | 61% | |
| 167 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 168 | 11% | 48% | |
| 169 | 13% | 37% | |
| 170 | 4% | 23% | |
| 171 | 4% | 20% | |
| 172 | 7% | 16% | |
| 173 | 2% | 8% | |
| 174 | 3% | 7% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 94% | |
| 69 | 4% | 90% | |
| 70 | 3% | 85% | |
| 71 | 10% | 82% | |
| 72 | 10% | 72% | |
| 73 | 6% | 61% | |
| 74 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 13% | 44% | |
| 76 | 13% | 31% | |
| 77 | 5% | 18% | |
| 78 | 3% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 11% | |
| 80 | 4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 6% | 93% | |
| 18 | 9% | 87% | |
| 19 | 18% | 79% | |
| 20 | 23% | 60% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 37% | |
| 22 | 9% | 16% | Last Result |
| 23 | 4% | 6% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 16 | 5% | 95% | |
| 17 | 15% | 90% | |
| 18 | 12% | 75% | |
| 19 | 12% | 63% | |
| 20 | 23% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 11% | 28% | |
| 22 | 10% | 17% | |
| 23 | 4% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 18% | 97% | |
| 12 | 11% | 79% | |
| 13 | 16% | 68% | |
| 14 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 22% | 34% | |
| 16 | 5% | 11% | |
| 17 | 4% | 7% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 35% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 65% | |
| 2 | 0% | 65% | |
| 3 | 0% | 65% | |
| 4 | 0% | 65% | |
| 5 | 0% | 65% | |
| 6 | 0% | 65% | |
| 7 | 0% | 65% | |
| 8 | 6% | 65% | |
| 9 | 13% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 30% | 47% | |
| 11 | 10% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 6% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 187 | 100% | 182–192 | 180–194 | 178–196 | 176–200 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 167 | 100% | 162–172 | 161–174 | 160–176 | 157–180 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 81 | 0% | 75–86 | 73–87 | 72–89 | 68–91 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 74 | 0% | 68–79 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 65–84 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 178 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 180 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 181 | 3% | 94% | |
| 182 | 7% | 91% | |
| 183 | 5% | 84% | |
| 184 | 11% | 79% | |
| 185 | 5% | 68% | |
| 186 | 6% | 63% | |
| 187 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 188 | 9% | 45% | |
| 189 | 7% | 35% | |
| 190 | 11% | 29% | |
| 191 | 6% | 18% | |
| 192 | 4% | 12% | |
| 193 | 3% | 9% | |
| 194 | 2% | 6% | |
| 195 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 159 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 160 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 161 | 5% | 97% | |
| 162 | 2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 5% | 89% | |
| 164 | 14% | 85% | |
| 165 | 10% | 71% | |
| 166 | 7% | 61% | |
| 167 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 168 | 11% | 48% | |
| 169 | 13% | 37% | |
| 170 | 4% | 23% | |
| 171 | 4% | 20% | |
| 172 | 7% | 16% | |
| 173 | 2% | 8% | |
| 174 | 3% | 7% | |
| 175 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 177 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 73 | 3% | 96% | |
| 74 | 2% | 93% | |
| 75 | 8% | 92% | |
| 76 | 10% | 84% | |
| 77 | 5% | 74% | |
| 78 | 5% | 68% | |
| 79 | 4% | 64% | |
| 80 | 7% | 59% | |
| 81 | 11% | 52% | |
| 82 | 8% | 41% | |
| 83 | 3% | 32% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 29% | |
| 85 | 7% | 18% | |
| 86 | 3% | 11% | |
| 87 | 3% | 7% | |
| 88 | 2% | 5% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 4% | 94% | |
| 69 | 4% | 90% | |
| 70 | 3% | 85% | |
| 71 | 10% | 82% | |
| 72 | 10% | 72% | |
| 73 | 6% | 61% | |
| 74 | 11% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 13% | 44% | |
| 76 | 13% | 31% | |
| 77 | 5% | 18% | |
| 78 | 3% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 11% | |
| 80 | 4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Alco
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.30%