Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 14–18 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 42.8% 40.8–44.8% 40.2–45.4% 39.8–45.9% 38.8–46.9%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 1.5% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 167 161–174 160–175 159–177 156–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 73 68–78 67–80 66–81 63–83
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 19 17–22 16–23 15–24 14–26
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 19 16–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 11–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–14
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 0 0 0 0 0 0–8

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.3% 99.8%  
156 0.4% 99.6%  
157 0.7% 99.2%  
158 0.8% 98% Last Result
159 1.5% 98%  
160 3% 96%  
161 5% 93%  
162 3% 89%  
163 5% 85%  
164 8% 81%  
165 8% 73%  
166 9% 64%  
167 8% 56% Median
168 7% 47%  
169 8% 40%  
170 7% 32%  
171 6% 25%  
172 5% 19%  
173 3% 14%  
174 4% 11%  
175 2% 7%  
176 2% 5%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0.8% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.2%  
180 0.4% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 1.1% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 5% 89%  
70 6% 84%  
71 11% 78%  
72 9% 67%  
73 10% 58% Median
74 10% 48%  
75 11% 39%  
76 8% 28%  
77 5% 20%  
78 5% 14%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.3% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.1%  
16 5% 97%  
17 9% 91%  
18 16% 82%  
19 17% 66% Median
20 18% 49%  
21 14% 31%  
22 8% 17% Last Result
23 5% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.7%  
15 3% 98% Last Result
16 7% 96%  
17 11% 88%  
18 16% 77%  
19 17% 61% Median
20 18% 43%  
21 11% 25%  
22 7% 14%  
23 4% 7%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.2% Last Result
11 12% 97%  
12 14% 85%  
13 21% 71%  
14 16% 50% Median
15 17% 34%  
16 11% 18%  
17 4% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.9%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 0% 70%  
8 10% 70%  
9 13% 60% Last Result, Median
10 31% 47%  
11 7% 16%  
12 7% 9%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Πλεύση Ελευθερίας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0.3% 0.6%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 187 100% 181–193 179–195 178–197 175–200
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 167 100% 161–174 160–175 159–177 156–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 81 0% 73–87 71–88 70–90 67–92
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 73 0% 68–78 67–80 66–81 63–83

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.2% 99.8%  
175 0.3% 99.6%  
176 0.6% 99.3%  
177 0.9% 98.8%  
178 2% 98%  
179 2% 96%  
180 3% 94% Last Result
181 4% 91%  
182 6% 87%  
183 6% 81%  
184 8% 75%  
185 8% 67%  
186 7% 59% Median
187 9% 52%  
188 7% 42%  
189 6% 36%  
190 7% 30%  
191 6% 23%  
192 5% 17%  
193 2% 12%  
194 2% 9%  
195 2% 7%  
196 2% 5%  
197 1.4% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.5% 1.1%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.2% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.3% 99.8%  
156 0.4% 99.6%  
157 0.7% 99.2%  
158 0.8% 98% Last Result
159 1.5% 98%  
160 3% 96%  
161 5% 93%  
162 3% 89%  
163 5% 85%  
164 8% 81%  
165 8% 73%  
166 9% 64%  
167 8% 56% Median
168 7% 47%  
169 8% 40%  
170 7% 32%  
171 6% 25%  
172 5% 19%  
173 3% 14%  
174 4% 11%  
175 2% 7%  
176 2% 5%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0.8% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.2%  
180 0.4% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.3%  
69 0.9% 98.9%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 2% 94%  
73 3% 92%  
74 3% 89%  
75 6% 86%  
76 6% 81%  
77 3% 75%  
78 4% 71%  
79 9% 67%  
80 8% 58%  
81 6% 50%  
82 5% 44% Median
83 11% 39%  
84 7% 28%  
85 5% 21%  
86 4% 15%  
87 6% 11%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.8% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1% Last Result
96 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 1.1% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 5% 89%  
70 6% 84%  
71 11% 78%  
72 9% 67%  
73 10% 58% Median
74 10% 48%  
75 11% 39%  
76 8% 28%  
77 5% 20%  
78 5% 14%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.3% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations