Opinion Poll by Marc for Alpha TV, 19–22 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 45.2% 43.2–47.2% 42.6–47.8% 42.1–48.3% 41.2–49.2%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.7% 24.0–27.6% 23.5–28.1% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 164–176 163–177 162–179 159–182
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 64–73 62–75 61–76 59–79
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 22 19–25 18–26 17–26 16–28
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–17 11–18 11–18 10–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 9 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
159 0.4% 99.7%  
160 0.6% 99.3%  
161 1.1% 98.7%  
162 2% 98%  
163 3% 96%  
164 4% 93%  
165 5% 89%  
166 6% 84%  
167 7% 78%  
168 9% 71%  
169 9% 62%  
170 8% 53% Median
171 9% 45%  
172 9% 36%  
173 6% 27%  
174 6% 21%  
175 5% 15%  
176 3% 10%  
177 2% 7%  
178 2% 5%  
179 1.0% 3%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.8% 99.3%  
61 1.4% 98.5%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 5% 91%  
65 7% 85%  
66 9% 79%  
67 10% 69%  
68 11% 59% Median
69 10% 49%  
70 9% 39%  
71 9% 29%  
72 6% 20%  
73 5% 14%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.2%  
18 5% 97%  
19 10% 92%  
20 15% 82%  
21 17% 68%  
22 16% 51% Last Result, Median
23 14% 35%  
24 11% 21%  
25 5% 11%  
26 3% 5%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.5%  
14 5% 98%  
15 10% 93% Last Result
16 16% 82%  
17 19% 66% Median
18 17% 47%  
19 14% 30%  
20 8% 16%  
21 5% 8%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.7% Last Result
11 5% 98%  
12 11% 93%  
13 18% 82%  
14 21% 64% Median
15 19% 43%  
16 12% 25%  
17 7% 12%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 11% 83%  
9 25% 72% Last Result, Median
10 23% 47%  
11 14% 24%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 192 100% 186–197 184–200 183–201 181–204
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 100% 164–176 163–177 162–179 159–182
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 77 0% 71–82 69–84 67–85 64–87
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 0% 64–73 62–75 61–76 59–79

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0.1% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
181 0.5% 99.5%  
182 0.9% 99.0%  
183 1.4% 98%  
184 2% 97%  
185 4% 95%  
186 4% 91%  
187 5% 87%  
188 7% 82%  
189 8% 75%  
190 9% 67%  
191 8% 58%  
192 9% 50% Median
193 8% 41%  
194 7% 33%  
195 7% 26%  
196 6% 19%  
197 4% 13%  
198 3% 9%  
199 2% 7%  
200 2% 5%  
201 1.1% 3%  
202 0.8% 2%  
203 0.7% 1.5%  
204 0.3% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
159 0.4% 99.7%  
160 0.6% 99.3%  
161 1.1% 98.7%  
162 2% 98%  
163 3% 96%  
164 4% 93%  
165 5% 89%  
166 6% 84%  
167 7% 78%  
168 9% 71%  
169 9% 62%  
170 8% 53% Median
171 9% 45%  
172 9% 36%  
173 6% 27%  
174 6% 21%  
175 5% 15%  
176 3% 10%  
177 2% 7%  
178 2% 5%  
179 1.0% 3%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 1.0% 98.7%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 1.5% 96%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 4% 91%  
72 4% 87%  
73 5% 83%  
74 7% 78%  
75 7% 71%  
76 9% 63%  
77 9% 55% Median
78 10% 46%  
79 8% 36%  
80 8% 28%  
81 6% 20%  
82 5% 14%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.8% 99.3%  
61 1.4% 98.5%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 5% 91%  
65 7% 85%  
66 9% 79%  
67 10% 69%  
68 11% 59% Median
69 10% 49%  
70 9% 39%  
71 9% 29%  
72 6% 20%  
73 5% 14%  
74 4% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations