Opinion Poll by Prorata for Η Εφημερίδα των Συντακτών, 31 March–6 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 41.5% | 39.5–43.5% | 39.0–44.1% | 38.5–44.6% | 37.5–45.6% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 30.2% | 28.4–32.1% | 27.9–32.6% | 27.4–33.1% | 26.6–34.0% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.9% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 157–170 | 156–171 | 154–173 | 151–176 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 82 | 77–88 | 75–90 | 74–92 | 72–94 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 16–26 | 15–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 15 | 13–19 | 12–20 | 12–20 | 11–22 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 8 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 12 | 9–14 | 8–15 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 3% | 95% | |
| 157 | 4% | 92% | |
| 158 | 7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 159 | 4% | 81% | |
| 160 | 9% | 77% | |
| 161 | 4% | 69% | |
| 162 | 9% | 65% | |
| 163 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 164 | 6% | 48% | |
| 165 | 10% | 42% | |
| 166 | 6% | 32% | |
| 167 | 6% | 26% | |
| 168 | 3% | 20% | |
| 169 | 5% | 17% | |
| 170 | 3% | 12% | |
| 171 | 3% | 8% | |
| 172 | 2% | 5% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 5% | 95% | |
| 77 | 3% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 87% | |
| 79 | 7% | 81% | |
| 80 | 6% | 74% | |
| 81 | 8% | 67% | |
| 82 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 83 | 10% | 49% | |
| 84 | 8% | 39% | |
| 85 | 5% | 31% | |
| 86 | 5% | 26% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 20% | |
| 88 | 6% | 14% | |
| 89 | 3% | 9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 5% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 96% | |
| 18 | 9% | 91% | |
| 19 | 13% | 82% | |
| 20 | 12% | 69% | |
| 21 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 44% | Last Result |
| 23 | 10% | 28% | |
| 24 | 8% | 17% | |
| 25 | 6% | 9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 4% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 13 | 11% | 94% | |
| 14 | 14% | 83% | |
| 15 | 20% | 69% | Last Result, Median |
| 16 | 15% | 49% | |
| 17 | 12% | 34% | |
| 18 | 10% | 22% | |
| 19 | 6% | 11% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 0% | 59% | |
| 3 | 0% | 59% | |
| 4 | 0% | 59% | |
| 5 | 0% | 59% | |
| 6 | 0% | 59% | |
| 7 | 0% | 59% | |
| 8 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 43% | |
| 10 | 3% | 20% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 12 | 0% | 17% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 14 | 4% | 17% | |
| 15 | 10% | 12% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 2% | 95% | |
| 9 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 10 | 11% | 87% | |
| 11 | 14% | 75% | |
| 12 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 34% | |
| 14 | 8% | 13% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 184 | 100% | 177–192 | 176–193 | 174–195 | 172–198 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 99.8% | 157–170 | 156–171 | 154–173 | 151–176 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 94 | 0% | 88–100 | 85–101 | 83–103 | 78–106 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 82 | 0% | 77–88 | 75–90 | 74–92 | 72–94 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 175 | 2% | 97% | |
| 176 | 3% | 95% | |
| 177 | 3% | 92% | |
| 178 | 3% | 90% | |
| 179 | 5% | 86% | |
| 180 | 5% | 81% | Last Result |
| 181 | 8% | 76% | |
| 182 | 6% | 68% | |
| 183 | 7% | 62% | |
| 184 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 185 | 7% | 47% | |
| 186 | 7% | 40% | |
| 187 | 6% | 33% | |
| 188 | 4% | 27% | |
| 189 | 4% | 22% | |
| 190 | 3% | 19% | |
| 191 | 5% | 16% | |
| 192 | 4% | 10% | |
| 193 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 195 | 2% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 3% | 95% | |
| 157 | 4% | 92% | |
| 158 | 7% | 88% | Last Result |
| 159 | 4% | 81% | |
| 160 | 9% | 77% | |
| 161 | 4% | 69% | |
| 162 | 9% | 65% | |
| 163 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 164 | 6% | 48% | |
| 165 | 10% | 42% | |
| 166 | 6% | 32% | |
| 167 | 6% | 26% | |
| 168 | 3% | 20% | |
| 169 | 5% | 17% | |
| 170 | 3% | 12% | |
| 171 | 3% | 8% | |
| 172 | 2% | 5% | |
| 173 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 85 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 86 | 2% | 95% | |
| 87 | 2% | 93% | |
| 88 | 4% | 91% | |
| 89 | 6% | 86% | |
| 90 | 3% | 80% | |
| 91 | 5% | 77% | |
| 92 | 7% | 72% | |
| 93 | 9% | 65% | |
| 94 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 95 | 10% | 45% | Last Result |
| 96 | 6% | 35% | |
| 97 | 3% | 28% | |
| 98 | 5% | 25% | |
| 99 | 8% | 20% | |
| 100 | 6% | 13% | |
| 101 | 3% | 6% | |
| 102 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 105 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 106 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 75 | 3% | 97% | |
| 76 | 5% | 95% | |
| 77 | 3% | 90% | |
| 78 | 6% | 87% | |
| 79 | 7% | 81% | |
| 80 | 6% | 74% | |
| 81 | 8% | 67% | |
| 82 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 83 | 10% | 49% | |
| 84 | 8% | 39% | |
| 85 | 5% | 31% | |
| 86 | 5% | 26% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 20% | |
| 88 | 6% | 14% | |
| 89 | 3% | 9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 5% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Prorata
- Commissioner(s): Η Εφημερίδα των Συντακτών
- Fieldwork period: 31 March–6 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.00%