Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 22–27 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 44.7% 42.7–46.7% 42.1–47.3% 41.7–47.8% 40.7–48.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.6–28.1% 23.2–28.5% 22.4–29.4%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.3% 4.9–8.9%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.1–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 168 164–172 162–174 160–176 158–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 65–72 63–74 61–76 59–78
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 22 19–25 19–26 19–27 17–29
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 15–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 8–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.8%  
158 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
159 0.8% 99.0%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 1.4% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 5% 92%  
165 6% 87%  
166 9% 81%  
167 13% 73%  
168 13% 60% Median
169 11% 47%  
170 12% 36%  
171 10% 25%  
172 6% 15%  
173 3% 9%  
174 2% 7%  
175 1.4% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.6% 1.4%  
180 0.4% 0.8%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 99.3%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 2% 97%  
63 1.0% 95%  
64 3% 94%  
65 6% 91%  
66 7% 85%  
67 18% 78%  
68 13% 60% Median
69 24% 47%  
70 8% 23%  
71 5% 15%  
72 2% 11%  
73 1.4% 8%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 0.9% 98.8%  
19 9% 98%  
20 7% 89%  
21 13% 82%  
22 29% 69% Last Result, Median
23 5% 40%  
24 19% 35%  
25 9% 16%  
26 2% 7%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.8%  
14 2% 98.8%  
15 8% 97% Last Result
16 17% 88%  
17 17% 71%  
18 26% 54% Median
19 11% 28%  
20 10% 18%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.8% Last Result
11 5% 98.6%  
12 12% 94%  
13 17% 82%  
14 24% 64% Median
15 17% 40%  
16 15% 23%  
17 5% 9%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 0% 92%  
8 14% 92%  
9 20% 79% Last Result
10 27% 58% Median
11 21% 31%  
12 6% 10%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.9% 1.1%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 191 100% 186–195 185–197 183–199 180–203
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 168 100% 164–172 162–174 160–176 158–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 77 0% 73–82 70–83 69–85 66–88
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 0% 65–72 63–74 61–76 59–78

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.2% 99.8%  
180 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
181 0.5% 99.3%  
182 1.0% 98.8%  
183 0.8% 98%  
184 2% 97%  
185 2% 95%  
186 3% 93%  
187 6% 90%  
188 5% 83%  
189 12% 79%  
190 16% 67% Median
191 11% 51%  
192 14% 40%  
193 9% 26%  
194 5% 17%  
195 4% 12%  
196 2% 8%  
197 2% 7%  
198 1.3% 4%  
199 0.7% 3%  
200 0.8% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.4%  
202 0.2% 1.1%  
203 0.5% 0.9%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.2% 99.8%  
158 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
159 0.8% 99.0%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 1.4% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 5% 92%  
165 6% 87%  
166 9% 81%  
167 13% 73%  
168 13% 60% Median
169 11% 47%  
170 12% 36%  
171 10% 25%  
172 6% 15%  
173 3% 9%  
174 2% 7%  
175 1.4% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.3% 2%  
179 0.6% 1.4%  
180 0.4% 0.8%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.2% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 0.3% 98.8%  
68 0.9% 98%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 1.4% 94%  
72 2% 93%  
73 3% 91%  
74 5% 88%  
75 6% 83%  
76 12% 77%  
77 15% 65%  
78 9% 50% Median
79 14% 41%  
80 9% 27%  
81 8% 18%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.2% 4%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.6% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 99.3%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 2% 97%  
63 1.0% 95%  
64 3% 94%  
65 6% 91%  
66 7% 85%  
67 18% 78%  
68 13% 60% Median
69 24% 47%  
70 8% 23%  
71 5% 15%  
72 2% 11%  
73 1.4% 8%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations