Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 27–29 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 44.7% 42.7–46.7% 42.1–47.3% 41.6–47.8% 40.7–48.8%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.6–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.4–29.5%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 168 163–174 161–176 160–177 158–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 64–73 62–75 61–76 59–79
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 14 12–17 11–18 11–18 10–20
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.3% 99.8%  
158 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
159 0.9% 99.1%  
160 1.3% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 3% 95%  
163 4% 92%  
164 5% 87%  
165 7% 82%  
166 8% 75%  
167 9% 66%  
168 9% 57% Median
169 10% 49%  
170 9% 39%  
171 7% 30%  
172 6% 23%  
173 5% 16%  
174 4% 12%  
175 3% 8%  
176 2% 5%  
177 1.2% 3%  
178 0.9% 2%  
179 0.5% 1.3%  
180 0.3% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 8% 85%  
66 8% 77%  
67 11% 69%  
68 10% 58% Median
69 10% 48%  
70 10% 37%  
71 8% 27%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 14%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 6% 96%  
20 10% 90%  
21 14% 80%  
22 16% 65% Last Result, Median
23 17% 49%  
24 14% 33%  
25 9% 19%  
26 5% 10%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.7%  
14 4% 98%  
15 9% 94% Last Result
16 15% 85%  
17 18% 70%  
18 19% 52% Median
19 15% 33%  
20 9% 19%  
21 5% 9%  
22 2% 4%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.2% 99.7% Last Result
11 5% 98%  
12 13% 94%  
13 18% 81%  
14 20% 63% Median
15 19% 44%  
16 13% 24%  
17 6% 11%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 0% 88%  
5 0% 88%  
6 0% 88%  
7 0% 88%  
8 8% 88%  
9 25% 79% Last Result
10 24% 55% Median
11 17% 31%  
12 9% 14%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 191 100% 185–196 184–198 182–200 180–204
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 168 100% 163–174 161–176 160–177 158–180
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 78 0% 72–83 70–84 68–85 64–88
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 68 0% 64–73 62–75 61–76 59–79

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.2% 99.8%  
180 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
181 0.7% 99.3%  
182 1.2% 98.6%  
183 2% 97%  
184 3% 95%  
185 4% 92%  
186 4% 88%  
187 5% 84%  
188 6% 79%  
189 8% 73%  
190 10% 64% Median
191 11% 54%  
192 10% 43%  
193 9% 33%  
194 6% 25%  
195 5% 18%  
196 4% 14%  
197 3% 10%  
198 2% 7%  
199 2% 5%  
200 1.1% 3%  
201 0.7% 2%  
202 0.4% 1.4%  
203 0.4% 0.9%  
204 0.3% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0.1% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.3% 99.8%  
158 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
159 0.9% 99.1%  
160 1.3% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 3% 95%  
163 4% 92%  
164 5% 87%  
165 7% 82%  
166 8% 75%  
167 9% 66%  
168 9% 57% Median
169 10% 49%  
170 9% 39%  
171 7% 30%  
172 6% 23%  
173 5% 16%  
174 4% 12%  
175 3% 8%  
176 2% 5%  
177 1.2% 3%  
178 0.9% 2%  
179 0.5% 1.3%  
180 0.3% 0.8%  
181 0.2% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.1%  
67 0.9% 98.6%  
68 1.2% 98%  
69 1.5% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 3% 93%  
72 4% 90%  
73 5% 86%  
74 6% 81%  
75 8% 75%  
76 8% 67%  
77 9% 59%  
78 10% 50% Median
79 9% 40%  
80 8% 31%  
81 7% 22%  
82 5% 16%  
83 4% 10%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 99.3%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 8% 85%  
66 8% 77%  
67 11% 69%  
68 10% 58% Median
69 10% 48%  
70 10% 37%  
71 8% 27%  
72 6% 19%  
73 5% 14%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations