Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 18–24 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 45.7% | 43.7–47.7% | 43.1–48.3% | 42.6–48.8% | 41.7–49.8% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 25.8% | 24.1–27.6% | 23.6–28.2% | 23.2–28.6% | 22.4–29.5% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 172 | 166–178 | 165–179 | 163–181 | 161–184 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 69 | 64–73 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 59–79 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 21 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 | 16–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 0–17 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–13 | 0–14 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 97% | |
| 165 | 4% | 96% | |
| 166 | 5% | 92% | |
| 167 | 3% | 87% | |
| 168 | 7% | 84% | |
| 169 | 7% | 76% | |
| 170 | 5% | 69% | |
| 171 | 13% | 64% | |
| 172 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 173 | 5% | 37% | |
| 174 | 9% | 32% | |
| 175 | 5% | 23% | |
| 176 | 3% | 18% | |
| 177 | 5% | 15% | |
| 178 | 4% | 10% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 5% | 92% | |
| 65 | 6% | 87% | |
| 66 | 7% | 81% | |
| 67 | 11% | 74% | |
| 68 | 11% | 63% | |
| 69 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 41% | |
| 71 | 7% | 30% | |
| 72 | 7% | 23% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 3% | 10% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 4% | 98% | |
| 18 | 8% | 95% | |
| 19 | 10% | 87% | |
| 20 | 18% | 77% | |
| 21 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 42% | Last Result |
| 23 | 11% | 24% | |
| 24 | 7% | 12% | |
| 25 | 3% | 6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 16 | 19% | 91% | |
| 17 | 14% | 72% | |
| 18 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 34% | |
| 20 | 13% | 23% | |
| 21 | 5% | 11% | |
| 22 | 4% | 6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 7% | 98% | |
| 10 | 13% | 91% | Last Result |
| 11 | 22% | 77% | |
| 12 | 23% | 55% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 32% | |
| 14 | 8% | 13% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0% | 89% | |
| 7 | 0% | 89% | |
| 8 | 14% | 89% | |
| 9 | 19% | 75% | Last Result |
| 10 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 31% | |
| 12 | 8% | 13% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 193 | 100% | 187–198 | 185–200 | 184–202 | 182–205 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 172 | 100% | 166–178 | 165–179 | 163–181 | 161–184 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 78 | 0% | 72–83 | 70–85 | 67–86 | 65–88 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 69 | 0% | 64–73 | 63–75 | 62–76 | 59–79 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 183 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 185 | 3% | 97% | |
| 186 | 3% | 95% | |
| 187 | 3% | 92% | |
| 188 | 5% | 88% | |
| 189 | 6% | 83% | |
| 190 | 7% | 77% | |
| 191 | 12% | 71% | |
| 192 | 7% | 59% | |
| 193 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 194 | 12% | 43% | |
| 195 | 7% | 31% | |
| 196 | 6% | 24% | |
| 197 | 5% | 18% | |
| 198 | 3% | 12% | |
| 199 | 2% | 9% | |
| 200 | 2% | 7% | |
| 201 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 203 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 97% | |
| 165 | 4% | 96% | |
| 166 | 5% | 92% | |
| 167 | 3% | 87% | |
| 168 | 7% | 84% | |
| 169 | 7% | 76% | |
| 170 | 5% | 69% | |
| 171 | 13% | 64% | |
| 172 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 173 | 5% | 37% | |
| 174 | 9% | 32% | |
| 175 | 5% | 23% | |
| 176 | 3% | 18% | |
| 177 | 5% | 15% | |
| 178 | 4% | 10% | |
| 179 | 2% | 6% | |
| 180 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 181 | 2% | 3% | |
| 182 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 2% | 94% | |
| 72 | 3% | 92% | |
| 73 | 3% | 89% | |
| 74 | 7% | 86% | |
| 75 | 5% | 79% | |
| 76 | 10% | 73% | |
| 77 | 10% | 63% | |
| 78 | 10% | 54% | |
| 79 | 9% | 44% | Median |
| 80 | 8% | 35% | |
| 81 | 7% | 26% | |
| 82 | 5% | 19% | |
| 83 | 6% | 14% | |
| 84 | 2% | 8% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 95% | |
| 64 | 5% | 92% | |
| 65 | 6% | 87% | |
| 66 | 7% | 81% | |
| 67 | 11% | 74% | |
| 68 | 11% | 63% | |
| 69 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 41% | |
| 71 | 7% | 30% | |
| 72 | 7% | 23% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 3% | 10% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ
- Fieldwork period: 18–24 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.99%