Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 20–25 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 48.7% 46.7–50.7% 46.1–51.3% 45.6–51.8% 44.6–52.8%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 27.5% 25.7–29.4% 25.2–29.9% 24.8–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 166–177 165–179 164–180 162–183
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 69 64–74 63–75 62–76 59–78
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 21 18–24 17–25 17–26 16–27
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 18 15–21 15–22 14–22 13–24
Ελληνική Λύση 10 12 9–14 9–14 8–15 8–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 8–12 0–13 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.4% 99.7%  
163 1.1% 99.3%  
164 2% 98%  
165 4% 96%  
166 8% 92%  
167 8% 84%  
168 12% 76%  
169 10% 64%  
170 11% 54% Median
171 7% 44%  
172 6% 37%  
173 5% 31%  
174 4% 26%  
175 4% 22%  
176 4% 18%  
177 4% 14%  
178 4% 10%  
179 2% 6%  
180 2% 4%  
181 0.8% 2%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.2% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 1.1% 98.7%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 93%  
65 6% 88%  
66 6% 82%  
67 9% 76%  
68 9% 67%  
69 10% 57% Median
70 12% 48%  
71 9% 36%  
72 10% 27%  
73 5% 17%  
74 5% 12%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.1% 99.6%  
17 4% 98%  
18 7% 94%  
19 13% 87%  
20 17% 75%  
21 20% 57% Median
22 15% 38% Last Result
23 10% 23%  
24 6% 12%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.9%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 3% 99.1%  
15 7% 96% Last Result
16 13% 89%  
17 16% 76%  
18 19% 60% Median
19 18% 41%  
20 10% 23%  
21 7% 13%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0.1% 99.6%  
8 2% 99.6%  
9 8% 97%  
10 16% 89% Last Result
11 21% 73%  
12 22% 53% Median
13 18% 31%  
14 8% 13%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.1% 1.4%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0.3% 95%  
8 13% 94%  
9 22% 82% Last Result
10 29% 60% Median
11 17% 31%  
12 8% 14%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.2% 2%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 191 100% 187–198 185–199 185–201 183–204
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 170 100% 166–177 165–179 164–180 162–183
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 79 0% 73–84 72–85 70–86 67–88
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 69 0% 64–74 63–75 62–76 59–78

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100% Last Result
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.2% 99.8%  
183 0.8% 99.5%  
184 1.0% 98.7%  
185 3% 98%  
186 3% 95%  
187 9% 92%  
188 8% 83%  
189 7% 74%  
190 12% 67%  
191 9% 55% Median
192 7% 45%  
193 6% 39%  
194 6% 32%  
195 4% 26%  
196 6% 22%  
197 2% 16%  
198 5% 14%  
199 3% 8%  
200 2% 5%  
201 1.5% 3%  
202 0.7% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.1%  
204 0.3% 0.7%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100% Last Result
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.4% 99.7%  
163 1.1% 99.3%  
164 2% 98%  
165 4% 96%  
166 8% 92%  
167 8% 84%  
168 12% 76%  
169 10% 64%  
170 11% 54% Median
171 7% 44%  
172 6% 37%  
173 5% 31%  
174 4% 26%  
175 4% 22%  
176 4% 18%  
177 4% 14%  
178 4% 10%  
179 2% 6%  
180 2% 4%  
181 0.8% 2%  
182 0.3% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.2% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 0.7% 98.9%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 4% 93%  
74 4% 89%  
75 7% 85%  
76 7% 79%  
77 10% 72%  
78 11% 63%  
79 9% 51% Median
80 8% 42%  
81 10% 34%  
82 8% 24%  
83 4% 16%  
84 5% 12%  
85 3% 6%  
86 2% 4%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0% Last Result

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 1.1% 98.7%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 93%  
65 6% 88%  
66 6% 82%  
67 9% 76%  
68 9% 67%  
69 10% 57% Median
70 12% 48%  
71 9% 36%  
72 10% 27%  
73 5% 17%  
74 5% 12%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations