Opinion Poll by MRB, 23 June–1 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 43.6% | 42.2–45.0% | 41.8–45.4% | 41.4–45.8% | 40.8–46.5% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 28.3% | 27.0–29.6% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.4–30.3% | 25.8–31.0% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7–9.3% | 7.4–9.5% | 7.3–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.1–4.2% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.8% |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 166 | 162–170 | 161–171 | 160–172 | 158–174 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 75 | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 68–82 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 22 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 16 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–21 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 10 | 8–11 | 0–12 | 0–12 | 0–13 |
| Χρυσή Αυγή | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 159 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 161 | 6% | 97% | |
| 162 | 5% | 91% | |
| 163 | 16% | 86% | |
| 164 | 7% | 70% | |
| 165 | 13% | 63% | |
| 166 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 39% | |
| 168 | 14% | 29% | |
| 169 | 4% | 16% | |
| 170 | 5% | 12% | |
| 171 | 4% | 7% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 173 | 2% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 5% | 95% | |
| 72 | 11% | 90% | |
| 73 | 11% | 79% | |
| 74 | 14% | 68% | |
| 75 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 76 | 10% | 44% | |
| 77 | 13% | 34% | |
| 78 | 6% | 21% | |
| 79 | 9% | 15% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 9% | 96% | |
| 21 | 14% | 87% | |
| 22 | 31% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 18% | 42% | |
| 24 | 12% | 24% | |
| 25 | 9% | 12% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 17% | 92% | Last Result |
| 16 | 25% | 75% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 50% | |
| 18 | 16% | 26% | |
| 19 | 7% | 10% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 19% | 93% | Last Result |
| 11 | 34% | 73% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 39% | |
| 13 | 13% | 16% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 9% | 93% | |
| 9 | 29% | 84% | Last Result |
| 10 | 31% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 24% | |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Χρυσή Αυγή
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Χρυσή Αυγή page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 188 | 100% | 184–192 | 183–193 | 182–195 | 180–197 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 166 | 100% | 162–170 | 161–171 | 160–172 | 158–174 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 84 | 0% | 80–88 | 79–89 | 77–90 | 75–91 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 75 | 0% | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 68–82 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 181 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 182 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 183 | 3% | 96% | |
| 184 | 7% | 93% | |
| 185 | 13% | 86% | |
| 186 | 7% | 73% | |
| 187 | 7% | 66% | |
| 188 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 189 | 10% | 45% | |
| 190 | 14% | 35% | |
| 191 | 7% | 21% | |
| 192 | 7% | 14% | |
| 193 | 2% | 7% | |
| 194 | 2% | 5% | |
| 195 | 2% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 159 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 160 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 161 | 6% | 97% | |
| 162 | 5% | 91% | |
| 163 | 16% | 86% | |
| 164 | 7% | 70% | |
| 165 | 13% | 63% | |
| 166 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 167 | 9% | 39% | |
| 168 | 14% | 29% | |
| 169 | 4% | 16% | |
| 170 | 5% | 12% | |
| 171 | 4% | 7% | |
| 172 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 173 | 2% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 77 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 97% | |
| 79 | 3% | 96% | |
| 80 | 6% | 93% | |
| 81 | 3% | 86% | |
| 82 | 13% | 83% | |
| 83 | 12% | 70% | |
| 84 | 12% | 58% | |
| 85 | 8% | 46% | Median |
| 86 | 11% | 38% | |
| 87 | 10% | 27% | |
| 88 | 10% | 17% | |
| 89 | 5% | 8% | |
| 90 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 91 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 3% | 98% | |
| 71 | 5% | 95% | |
| 72 | 11% | 90% | |
| 73 | 11% | 79% | |
| 74 | 14% | 68% | |
| 75 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 76 | 10% | 44% | |
| 77 | 13% | 34% | |
| 78 | 6% | 21% | |
| 79 | 9% | 15% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MRB
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23 June–1 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.01%