Opinion Poll by MRB for Star, 4–7 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 39.8% 43.6% 41.6–45.6% 41.0–46.2% 40.5–46.7% 39.6–47.7%
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 31.5% 28.3% 26.5–30.2% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 8.1% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 5.3% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Ελληνική Λύση 3.7% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 3.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 165 160–171 159–173 157–175 155–178
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 70–80 69–82 68–83 66–86
Κίνημα Αλλαγής 22 22 20–26 19–26 18–27 17–29
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας 15 17 14–19 13–20 13–21 12–22
Ελληνική Λύση 10 11 9–14 9–14 8–15 0–16
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 9 10 0–12 0–12 0–13 0–14

Νέα Δημοκρατία

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.4% 99.6%  
156 0.7% 99.2%  
157 1.3% 98%  
158 2% 97% Last Result
159 3% 95%  
160 4% 92%  
161 6% 88%  
162 6% 83%  
163 9% 76%  
164 8% 68%  
165 10% 60% Median
166 8% 50%  
167 9% 41%  
168 8% 33%  
169 7% 25%  
170 5% 18%  
171 4% 13%  
172 3% 9%  
173 2% 6%  
174 2% 4%  
175 1.0% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.4% 0.9%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 5% 93%  
71 5% 88%  
72 9% 83%  
73 8% 74%  
74 10% 66%  
75 10% 55% Median
76 10% 46%  
77 9% 36%  
78 7% 27%  
79 7% 20%  
80 4% 13%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.0%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Κίνημα Αλλαγής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 6% 96%  
20 11% 90%  
21 14% 80%  
22 17% 65% Last Result, Median
23 16% 48%  
24 13% 32%  
25 9% 19%  
26 5% 10%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 4% 98.6%  
14 9% 95%  
15 14% 85% Last Result
16 19% 71%  
17 19% 52% Median
18 15% 33%  
19 10% 19%  
20 5% 9%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Ελληνική Λύση

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 2% 98%  
9 9% 96%  
10 18% 87% Last Result
11 24% 69% Median
12 21% 45%  
13 13% 24%  
14 7% 11%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 0% 87%  
8 10% 87%  
9 23% 78% Last Result
10 24% 54% Median
11 17% 30%  
12 9% 14%  
13 4% 5%  
14 1.0% 1.4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής 180 188 100% 182–194 181–196 180–197 177–201
Νέα Δημοκρατία 158 165 100% 160–171 159–173 157–175 155–178
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής 95 84 0% 78–89 76–91 75–92 71–95
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς 86 75 0% 70–80 69–82 68–83 66–86

Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.2% 99.8%  
177 0.3% 99.7%  
178 0.6% 99.3%  
179 1.0% 98.8%  
180 2% 98% Last Result
181 2% 96%  
182 4% 94%  
183 4% 90%  
184 7% 85%  
185 7% 79%  
186 9% 71%  
187 9% 63% Median
188 8% 54%  
189 9% 46%  
190 8% 36%  
191 7% 29%  
192 6% 22%  
193 5% 16%  
194 3% 11%  
195 3% 8%  
196 2% 6%  
197 1.2% 4%  
198 0.9% 2%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.4% 0.9%  
201 0.2% 0.6%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Νέα Δημοκρατία

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0.1% 100%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.4% 99.6%  
156 0.7% 99.2%  
157 1.3% 98%  
158 2% 97% Last Result
159 3% 95%  
160 4% 92%  
161 6% 88%  
162 6% 83%  
163 9% 76%  
164 8% 68%  
165 10% 60% Median
166 8% 50%  
167 9% 41%  
168 8% 33%  
169 7% 25%  
170 5% 18%  
171 4% 13%  
172 3% 9%  
173 2% 6%  
174 2% 4%  
175 1.0% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.4% 0.9%  
178 0.2% 0.5%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 99.3%  
73 0.8% 99.0%  
74 0.8% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 2% 94%  
78 3% 92%  
79 5% 89%  
80 5% 85%  
81 7% 79%  
82 7% 72%  
83 9% 65%  
84 9% 56%  
85 10% 47% Median
86 8% 37%  
87 8% 29%  
88 6% 21%  
89 5% 15%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 5% 93%  
71 5% 88%  
72 9% 83%  
73 8% 74%  
74 10% 66%  
75 10% 55% Median
76 10% 46%  
77 9% 36%  
78 7% 27%  
79 7% 20%  
80 4% 13%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.0%  
86 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations