Opinion Poll by Alco for Open TV, 12–17 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 39.8% | 41.7% | 39.7–43.7% | 39.2–44.3% | 38.7–44.8% | 37.7–45.8% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 31.5% | 27.2% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.5–30.1% | 23.7–31.0% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 157–168 | 156–169 | 154–171 | 152–174 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 64–83 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 22 | 22 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 17–26 | 16–28 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας | 15 | 17 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–23 |
| Ελληνική Λύση | 10 | 14 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 11–18 | 10–20 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 9 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 0–15 | 0–16 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 3% | 96% | |
| 157 | 3% | 92% | |
| 158 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 159 | 6% | 83% | |
| 160 | 8% | 77% | |
| 161 | 9% | 68% | |
| 162 | 10% | 60% | |
| 163 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 164 | 10% | 42% | |
| 165 | 8% | 32% | |
| 166 | 7% | 24% | |
| 167 | 6% | 17% | |
| 168 | 3% | 12% | |
| 169 | 3% | 8% | |
| 170 | 2% | 5% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 3% | 94% | |
| 69 | 6% | 91% | |
| 70 | 7% | 85% | |
| 71 | 9% | 78% | |
| 72 | 9% | 69% | |
| 73 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 74 | 9% | 48% | |
| 75 | 9% | 39% | |
| 76 | 10% | 30% | |
| 77 | 5% | 20% | |
| 78 | 4% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 18 | 6% | 96% | |
| 19 | 9% | 91% | |
| 20 | 15% | 82% | |
| 21 | 16% | 67% | |
| 22 | 18% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 23 | 12% | 32% | |
| 24 | 10% | 20% | |
| 25 | 5% | 10% | |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 8% | 96% | |
| 15 | 13% | 88% | Last Result |
| 16 | 18% | 75% | |
| 17 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 16% | 38% | |
| 19 | 11% | 22% | |
| 20 | 6% | 11% | |
| 21 | 3% | 5% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 11 | 5% | 98% | |
| 12 | 11% | 94% | |
| 13 | 18% | 83% | |
| 14 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 44% | |
| 16 | 13% | 25% | |
| 17 | 7% | 12% | |
| 18 | 3% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0% | 97% | |
| 3 | 0% | 97% | |
| 4 | 0% | 97% | |
| 5 | 0% | 97% | |
| 6 | 0% | 97% | |
| 7 | 0% | 97% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 9 | 11% | 96% | Last Result |
| 10 | 15% | 85% | |
| 11 | 30% | 70% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 40% | |
| 13 | 16% | 25% | |
| 14 | 6% | 10% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής | 180 | 184 | 100% | 179–189 | 177–191 | 176–193 | 173–196 |
| Νέα Δημοκρατία | 158 | 163 | 99.8% | 157–168 | 156–169 | 154–171 | 152–174 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής | 95 | 84 | 0% | 80–90 | 78–91 | 76–93 | 73–95 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς | 86 | 73 | 0% | 69–78 | 67–80 | 66–81 | 64–83 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία – Κίνημα Αλλαγής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 177 | 2% | 96% | |
| 178 | 3% | 94% | |
| 179 | 5% | 91% | |
| 180 | 5% | 86% | Last Result |
| 181 | 7% | 81% | |
| 182 | 10% | 74% | |
| 183 | 7% | 64% | |
| 184 | 10% | 57% | |
| 185 | 9% | 46% | Median |
| 186 | 8% | 37% | |
| 187 | 8% | 29% | |
| 188 | 6% | 21% | |
| 189 | 5% | 15% | |
| 190 | 3% | 10% | |
| 191 | 3% | 7% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 193 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Δημοκρατία
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 152 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 155 | 2% | 97% | |
| 156 | 3% | 96% | |
| 157 | 3% | 92% | |
| 158 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 159 | 6% | 83% | |
| 160 | 8% | 77% | |
| 161 | 9% | 68% | |
| 162 | 10% | 60% | |
| 163 | 8% | 50% | Median |
| 164 | 10% | 42% | |
| 165 | 8% | 32% | |
| 166 | 7% | 24% | |
| 167 | 6% | 17% | |
| 168 | 3% | 12% | |
| 169 | 3% | 8% | |
| 170 | 2% | 5% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 76 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 78 | 3% | 96% | |
| 79 | 3% | 93% | |
| 80 | 7% | 90% | |
| 81 | 5% | 84% | |
| 82 | 9% | 79% | |
| 83 | 9% | 70% | |
| 84 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 85 | 9% | 50% | |
| 86 | 8% | 41% | |
| 87 | 10% | 33% | |
| 88 | 5% | 22% | |
| 89 | 6% | 17% | |
| 90 | 3% | 11% | |
| 91 | 4% | 8% | |
| 92 | 2% | 4% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 3% | 94% | |
| 69 | 6% | 91% | |
| 70 | 7% | 85% | |
| 71 | 9% | 78% | |
| 72 | 9% | 69% | |
| 73 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 74 | 9% | 48% | |
| 75 | 9% | 39% | |
| 76 | 10% | 30% | |
| 77 | 5% | 20% | |
| 78 | 4% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 6% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Alco
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.69%